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2281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bear post of the Day on: February 18, 2013, 03:25:35 AM
Todays bear post is about the so called uniqueness of Bitcoin.

There is not much to write about it, for all practical purposes Bitcoin is innovative but certainly not unique.
Take a look around at the Digital Currency Wiki and tell me why you think Bitcoin is destined for greatness and all those other solutions are not.

When doing that keep in mind that the rest of the world doesn't necessarily agree with libertarian ideology.

It's exactly because you are living in the first world, that you may not understand why the rest of the world needs it, and its uniqueness.


Ohh that's gonna be interesting. Please tell me how the 3rd world population is supposed to benefit from BTC in any way because I cannot think of any.

I'm serious. Undecided

and don't forget the mountain of gox!

true dat.

http://en.blog.wordpress.com/2012/11/15/pay-another-way-bitcoin/

The Wordpress guy pretty much got it actually, the status quo is if folks in my nation, and many other third world nations wanna pay for, let's say a wordpress or megaupload subscription, or just simply buying goods in a U.S online store, soon they will find many of the times their only option is to ask people like me(oversea students/workers) to help them out, all current payment methods would not work for one reason or another. Credit cards issued in many nations are not accepted, you can't blame the merchants for this, the issuing banks most likely would not give a shit once you are frauded, let alone pay for your losses, and even if you could locate the fraudster, the chance of a successful prosecution is superslim.  Paypal does not do business with perhaps more than half of the world's population, and is not allowed to process foreign currency transactions in China, even in those nations it operates, there are very often draconian restrictions, see here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal#Local_restrictions , the chance that other online payment business/digital currency issuers could operate where Paypal could not is, of course, even slimmer. And don't get me started on the wire transfer, even if the merchant accepts it and you are fine with the exorbitant fees, your fund could be intercepted anytime by an intermediary bank if the amount is slightly large, on the pretext of financial crime prevention of course, and you are left to find out yourself why your fund has not arrived, no one is going to inform you, i had personal experience with that.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, could prove to be very useful, I don't know about other nations, but in China, it's a piece of cake to buy bitcoins with existing domestic online payment system like Alipay, even if the government decides to crack down on the exchanges, the online shops could still sell them under all kinds of pretenses, it is nearly impossible the authority would find out what is the good really being delivered. On the oversea merchants side, all they have to do is to use a payment processor, which adds very little cost. Of course, whether bitcoin could really succeed will have to depend on the size and liquidity of the market, in the end.

Bitcoin, it seems to me, is basically a digital version of hawala http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala, except that hawala is nowhere near as versatile as bitcoin is. The decentralization aspect is not just libertarian ideology, it's very tangible in nations where financial barriers are real.
2282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 18, 2013, 02:17:26 AM
Bears never learned the lesson, if you want to kill the rally, prepare at least 100k-150k BTC for the dump, otherwise it's just a fire sale.

You seem to assume that a speculator who wants to sell wants to push price down. Huh

This is mistaking manipulative day-trading for normal speculation. Why would a real bear sell inside such down-spikes? Serious bears either have sold already or sell carefully close to peaks. Why would they suddenly panic after sitting out three days of stagnation?

The people who cause the spikes are either trend-following, using erratic chart signals or plain confused. The same goes for those who buy at 27 shortly after they had chances to buy at 25 -- or even below 22 within the last week!

If you ask me, we have more traders who tend to suddenly change their minds than bears.

This is not a serious analysis thread, some chest-thumping is allowed I think? Cheesy OK, what I really meant to say is: we had quite a few dumps of 40-50K size which were also much more fierce yet the market did not yield, if someone saw a slow-motion 10k-20k dump and decided it's time to jump on the boat, then it's tuition fee paid.
2283  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bear post of the Day on: February 18, 2013, 01:51:57 AM
Todays bear post is about the so called uniqueness of Bitcoin.

There is not much to write about it, for all practical purposes Bitcoin is innovative but certainly not unique.
Take a look around at the Digital Currency Wiki and tell me why you think Bitcoin is destined for greatness and all those other solutions are not.

When doing that keep in mind that the rest of the world doesn't necessarily agree with libertarian ideology.

It's exactly because you are living in the first world, that you may not understand why the rest of the world needs it, and its uniqueness.
2284  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 18, 2013, 01:48:18 AM
Bears never learned the lesson, if you want to kill the rally, prepare at least 100k-150k BTC for the dump, otherwise it's just a fire sale.
2285  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: So far we got Wordpress, 4chan, mega and reddit so whats next? on: February 17, 2013, 10:25:27 AM
I don't think many of you guys in first world have fully appreciated the importance of these sites accepting bitcoins. Smiley
2286  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 17, 2013, 10:06:36 AM
OK, let me give my analysis: Price stops moving=nobody wants to buy/sell=nobody is using/wants to use Bitcoins, so it's a bearish signal, SELL!! Grin

LOL  - or it's just sunday. Wink

Edit: And just a question, what is the rationale behind trying to keep the price artifically high ? At the moment, the wall at 7.15 is being eroded, and some bot or person is buying for 0.01 at the highest ask.

Apart from being a bull and wanting the price to look higher than it actually is, what would be the advantage ?

It may just be that no one wants to be the first, bulls or bears. Bears apparently got scared by the Thursday trap, and bulls are suspicious whether the rally could continue, so they just lay up high walls and play defense.
2287  Economy / Speculation / Re: why I sold my bitcoins.... on: February 17, 2013, 10:01:45 AM
Each one to themselves I guess.

I like bears who just can't wait to tell everyone after they sold their bitcoins like it's them losing their virginities.
This exactly.  Cheesy

Anyone here left holding the bag, can just lie and brag about how they sold at the top.

It's FUD or they can hold until the price rises up again and start bragging.
2288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 17, 2013, 09:03:16 AM
OK, let me give my analysis: Price stops moving=nobody wants to buy/sell=nobody is using/wants to use Bitcoins, so it's a bearish signal, SELL!! Grin
2289  Economy / Speculation / Re: why I sold my bitcoins.... on: February 17, 2013, 07:17:50 AM
I like bears who just can't wait to tell everyone after they sold their bitcoins like it's them losing their virginities.
2290  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: France Is Planning To Prohibit Cash Payments Over €1,000 on: February 17, 2013, 04:06:49 AM
There is but one form of transaction the government would be happy to let you conduct: the one that is easily traceable and stoppable by the authority, whereas there are almost an infinite number of mediums that could be potentially used as cash, and Bitcoin is cash's ultimate reincarnation. Moreover, cash is not going to die because governments brainwash their people to believe it's unnecessary and evil, you'll almost always spontaneously turn something into cash when you really need it.
2291  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bear post of the Day on: February 17, 2013, 03:12:01 AM
Glad that my point was so well understood.  Wink


As for today I'll try to tackle yet another myth:

The claim that bullish market participants can drive the price up infinitely, arguably because they can keep their coins forever without ever selling them back.
In an ideal world where everybody only invests the money they can afford to lose this would be true, but in RL that is not the case...

Because of relatively low interest rates in the fiat money economy there is a substantial amount of people who buy Bitcoin on credit. This tendency increases with greed and bullishness, the more somebody thinks the price will go up shortly and the higher the longing to get rich quick the higher the risk for somebody to fall into this trap.
And because many people either have other loans for more essential assets (like housing) or use these assets as collateral to get the loan in the first place they have no other alternative to sell their BTC down the road, either by taking profit or worse to cut losses.

I'm bullish but I agree with this. Infinitely? Doesn't sound realistic anyway. The truth is a lot of people will cash out of bitcoin and that will cause the bubble to pop...... but that is the price bitcoin has to pay to become an elite currency. Over and over people will suck money out of the bitcoin circulation and prices will rise and fall but eventually it will still be worth more than it is now. I only say I'm bullish because I don't think the price will drop that far. There are lines of people waiting to buy at 15........ so that means I doubt it will drop that low if the price does crash.

Yes, it was cypherdoc one of the most prominent bulls here who brought that to my attention.
What you do must understand is that essentially this behavior can lead to a debt trap for speculators who weren't careful enough and depending on the entrance price of the people who did this it can lead to a very deep drop potentially. In a way the positive feedback we have seen in the past weeks would reverse and work against them.
I think if it gets that far we would drop very deep, potentially close to the 2011 crash.

I beg to differ here. I think the number of "healthy investors" could match that of reckless investors who would be deeply in debt and panic sell to cut losses, so the healthy guys could easily stop the price from falling that low by buying off at a higher, though still quite low bottom price(e.g. $7.22),  if the reckless investors were such a  dominant force here, their collective buying power would already have pushed the price way higher than it's now, like in June 2011, when the price jumped 20 dollars in just one week.
2292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 17, 2013, 01:55:56 AM
Kim Dotcom just tweeted that Mega now accepts Bitcoin. I'm sure we can expect one or two more press articles on this next week.

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/302844443223023616

Yup, Finally Kim Dotcom could spend his Bitcoins to troll on Reddit! The market is expanding. Grin
2293  Economy / Speculation / Re: Reddit now accepting Bitcoin... on: February 16, 2013, 03:50:34 PM
Quote
It's a fantasy currency for libertarians who don't believe in the inherent legitimacy of monetary policy
http://www.reddit.com/r/ShitRedditSays/comments/18ks2p/meta_im_just_surprised_they_didnt_do_it_sooner/

Its the comments like this that will drive people capable of thinking critically to investigate bitcoin. You really don't even need to argue against people who make claims like that. That type of thing used to be common on slashdot and is what got me interested, I'm sure others as well.

Say that again to me when his greenback loses half of its value.
2294  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 16, 2013, 12:16:38 PM
Random wild speculation:  the price flattened out for a long time at about $13.5, now it is at $27, almost exactly twice as much, so maybe it's gonna cease to fluctuate for a while? What do you guys think? Grin
2295  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 16, 2013, 11:33:18 AM
so bored
2296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 16, 2013, 07:20:43 AM
do we have a list of the orders that were placed...for instance how much btc was sold over $30 that june?

You can get a list of all the orders executed, but you don't need them to know the  volume above $30, so why?
2297  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why do you buy bitcoin? on: February 16, 2013, 03:02:30 AM
What about bragging rights? To your children/friends:" I was part of the whole revolution, I saw history unfolding right in front of me, and I can sign a message to prove it." Wink
2298  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 16, 2013, 02:49:38 AM
just loading a bit^^



the spread is crazy. its bot heaven these days. im kicking myself for not majoring in CS

Yo me too. Math skills are the most essential part of it (additional to what you usualy learn in CS). Its realy hard but I've put myself through 3 courses at coursera.org and started on edx.org... But I won't deploy one of these "high frequency" bots yet. Everything is possible if you can glue yourself to the screen, week for week. Still limited to python though. There are nice open sources to learn from.

I am not going to use a bot, damned Gox is clogged enough already, bots activities only slow it down even more,  I think Gox should restrict the number of reuqests that can be made from a particular IP.

Edit: Oh, they won't, they love active bots coz more minutetradings means more fees for them, damn them!
2299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 16, 2013, 12:11:47 AM
the spread is crazy. its bot heaven these days. im kicking myself for not majoring in CS

It's interesting to see this huge disagreement between bids and asks, it almost seems like bids have reached their max but asks just don't want to sell that low.

Bears have not yet recovered from the shock of Thursday.
2300  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 15, 2013, 11:44:15 AM
I think someone is trying to use Mt.Gox as a escrow service.
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