You get the idea. After visiting 63 USD (stamp) in July 2013, we never went that low again (cough except for gox traders of course, who got near). Which makes it the bottom of the previous post-ATH downtrend. What about 340 yesterday? Bottom or not?

In case you wonder, I'm asking the question not because I believe it can tell us much about the future (i.e. I'm not trying to gauge this mythical "sentiment" that supposedly tells us when a correction is over), but because I'd like to come back to this poll during the *next* bubble. Think of it as an amusing little experiment that we can look at again in a year or two, and draw some conclusions then perhaps.


EDIT: btw, I will lock the poll after 24h, so we get a proper snapshot of the sentiment immediately after the drop.

EDIT 2: poll is locked now.

We went from a ratio slightly above 2:1 in favor of "it was the bottom" to slightly below 2:1 now. A pretty clear signal that the forum thinks the bottom is in.

I plan to ask this question again in the future during the next bottom (whenever that may be), and ultimately make it a series of polls... the plan is that maybe we are getting some interesting information about the relationship between forum sentiment and market action

Final EDIT: For some reason it seems that, once the poll is locked, others can't view the results anymore... so here's a screencap of the final result:

Nah, I see your point, it /is/ kind of unprofessional, but also rather irrelevant in the bigger picture of how shoestring our little operation is altogether still.

In other words, I roll my eyes at it, and then amuse myself thinking of the articles people will write in 20 years about "how almost childish the early market participants and merchants" were.

Agreed, but (like I asked a few posts above) could you maybe calculate r-squared for your model, to see how it fits the price data so far?

Hey adam, how about opening the poll question: "Was 340 the bottom or not?" Nice, clean and telling :D

USD, you mean? Don't think so.

Because they aren't perceived as cheap anymore. Haven't been, for more than a week now (the range, I mean).

But you knew that as well I'm sure.

Interesting question is now: what /do/ I (personally) think of as "cheap coins". And I have a really hard time coming up with an answer... 300? Not sure. 266? Yeah, probably. 100? Sure.

Don't flatter yourself. I've been well prepared for this for a while.

But word of advice: don't forget to buy back in at whatever will turn out to be support eventually. Otherwise we're going to hear your constant whining well into the recovery

And there goes the "real" support level at 382.

(hint: it never was any more real than 400)

Die selbe Leier, jedes mal.

Beim Sturz von 32 auf 2, von 260 auf 65, und jetzt eben von 1200 auf (noch unbekannt).

Gut dass du raus bist. Dann bleiben uns in Zukunft deine Kommentare erspart, richtig?

(Ach was, natürlich bleibst du hier im Forum, und spamst fröhlich weiter.)

In my opinion, this is not a crash at all.

This is a slow grind down, interspersed by the occasional higher volume moment of panic selling, and (less often) panic buying.

For some reason, I read his comment in the tone of "I spill my drink!"

Oh absolutely, that method makes a lot of sense. But I guess it also has lot to do with how often you're willing to trade, and how much you value your night's sleep. What i mean is, there are two ways to go about it:

You can define "weakly" the points of possible resistance, and trade them, but then you can't be shy and must be prepared to sell again if it turns out they won't hold. I.e. you determine the bottom as you trade along. Probably the most profitable way.

Thing is, I'm kind of exhausted of this. I don't want to set price alarms at night, or to interrupt whatever I'm doing to watch the price, and since I can't predict the bottom in a "hard" way, I'll wait it out til the dust settled. Might mean I will miss the absolute bottom by some, and miss out on profit for the in between swings, but as long as I see the larger downtrend still in full swing, I think I'll simply wait... although I admit that once we get near the old ATH, I'll seriously consider buying.

This has to be your weakest argument yet.

We are in the process of creating a decentralized (near) global ledger to provide cryptographic proof of ownership and transfer times, and you complain about the energy usage which is a tiny fraction of what people blow out on a regular evening microwaving food, and eating it in front of their TVs? Yeah, there's got to be a better angle to criticize us.

Correction. We either rest uneasily at the very lowest point of one version of that triangle ("double bottom" of 382), or we broke though it, downwards (the version that saw a slight increase from the December bottom to the February bottom).

Well, if there was any doubt how bearish one should be right now, today gave the answer.

I've been looking for possible low price targets for the past week or so, but I don't really see myself buying in right now at any of them. Almost scary how, with a 4-5 month delay, I start getting the feeling lucif had at the beginning of this downtrend.

Agreed. Which makes the continuing downtrend all the more worrying, no?

So eaten entirely. Makes sense. I never trusted that wall much: at its best, is was less than a quarter of the volume of a high volume day. Not really confidence inspiring.

Ach was. Bitcoin geht über 1200, Bitcoin fällt unter 400... sagt garnix aus über die Langzeitperspektive. Honeybadger und so.

Was allerdings wahr ist, dass im Moment grade die Kacke am dampfen ist :)

Looks to me like it was partially (maybe mostlye even) eaten.

Around 2.9k volume on bitstamp, wall was around 3.5k.

Anyone knows more?

Somewhat sad, but predictable :/