Couldnt say immediately but we do have recent positive reaction in price action which should be noted and followed for its progress.   If price remains above a weekly average, no matter where it has been or the general negative sentiment, retaining that momentum should be considered positive trending.



So target upside would be about 16.5k and confirming above there has me looking positive going forward

Somebody clue me on what happened for Argentina to lose like that.  Im happy for Saudi Arabia but how could it happen, very lucky but also has to be a heat element also in that result I imagine.      Its important for the future bets if it was just a fluke result somehow, maybe some teams arent taking this contest seriously in some way.   I wonder if we shall see more erratic outlier bets pay off.


Yea the odds got low now so I hope the time bonus pays as I had the same view at month start.  I did add to it in the last week as a negative November seems quite likely neutral end at best; in a risk vs reward way I think its probably superior to guessing other prices.

Point is not all prices are equally weighted in their likelihood, there is a large gap between 20k and the peak prices we had prior to reaching that plateau.    We rose very quickly if you remember right through the range at the end of 2020, because of that it becomes more likely we will retrace fast back down again also.
  If all prices were equally probable it wouldn't be the case we had such a thing as support and resistance and other dynamics.   We can reach back to the lower teen prices but the wider question is for what period of time, it could be minutes or months that it occurs.   I do think these prices are far better value then chasing the highest prices seen this year, ironically interest is less when the dollar gives more Bitcoin in exchange; human nature is quite ironic.

Take the pay cut and start looking for alternatives, your boss might be right and the labor market is dead so wait it out on pay is best.     I think the cut is most sensible but during inflation everyone is taking a cut whether they like it or not.  Its why large government with deficit spending and unserviceable debt loads are so dangerous to the entire country, it will undermine the economy and make the currency unstable.

Still very negative into the close of November, I had hoped earlier price action could respect the closing lows since November 9th but its fallen to just match the absolute lows.   It does seem likely we keep testing support until its either proven or gives way.   Unfortunately my spring prediction or guess for a worst case scenario this year has played out, we are due to retrace back down to the 2019 summer peak prices and I hope that area has the volume to bring back support to the price.

Its time to break out the chart into monthly bars at this point, unless you have a wider screen then me or better eyesight perhaps then leave it on weekly or daily I guess.   The point is that momentum at present will resolve on a large time frame then most people reckon with, ironically BTC though volatile does respect some very long term dynamics and its a surprise to most people who try to trade it I think.   Perhaps because its tied to the Dollar trade in some way or the process of reducing the block reward and this is occurring over multiple years so that is a tide that surpasses the waves we try to count in calculating movements.
    Recent action is breaking a prior range that held for some months, June to November is quite significant so now you must count all prices possible till we define this area we breached into.  It would be good if recovered the prior low seen sept Oct low but for now I think we will not.  

  Today we test the closing daily low seen 3 times since Nov 9th, small positive from there on shorter term; trade 16.3k and above cautiously positive.

You do know if this was real or not because it really doesnt add up.   The national team are there to best represent their country, its far too obvious a scheme to play out well.  The only people who would want to bribe in a game are for profit and hoping not to get caught, this whole match is very high publicity its a bad bet from the start because of that giant spotlight on the match.
  Its rumors nothing more, it doesnt add up even from a completely corrupt point of view its a bad value bribe to enter into this game in such a way.   The corrupt people in this game want no attention for their endeavors, they want profits easy as possible and this is not it.   You all already know this, people love to gossip for fun thats what I hear when this story is told; hope it was fun for whomever to spread.

False break up would lend energy to this idea but till we break some new boundary region I wouldnt assume too much from BTC price wavering back and forth.   18 to 15k is the rough range BTC might keep for this month and next and some time after.


4hr bars for the last week or so, its quite a consistent price movement resolving to no indication especially.  The recent attempt to move upwards concluded in a failed attempt on a higher time frame, thats not a positive indicator but possibly only noise as all of this is speculative and volatile on low time frames.

Problem with that would be if having to verify an account for any reason, its harder to prove ownership of an account if all the details are not yours vs if it matches your real details which you can prove.  Unfortunately from experience I have lost funds from just having random details entered into an account, I should have remade it with my real data before depositing anything especially.  I didnt lose a fortune but they never let me fully control the account because of that.


The numbers just spin forever on the freeroll and similar errors for the wheel if you have any iffy connection at all.  Start over or even use a different browser but its usually a transit error basically, wait a second/minute then refresh is all I need most of the time.

Im not an optimist so Im protected from the dream of being a gambling genius so no I just play for fun as should most tbh.    So long as people dont kid themselves gambling is a get rich quick scheme I think its mostly safe, some of course are highly reactive kinda personality maybe have to be cautious but theres alot of things in life to be cautious and careful about for your own good health and happiness so yea be careful dreams are dangerous, but I say that about everything as Iam a bit of a dreamer but a realistic one imo.

There is the technical point to consider in that any money not to tied to FTX might end up providing too much liquidity, supply to the market so lowering the price in that immediate way.   Im not sure that is happening, I heard billions mentioned were actually a legitimate withdrawal by a large entity not a trader or misdirected transfer so that might have been a false alarm that occured.

The pricing right now is beating a 12hr average, very fast trading momentum has us moving upwards.   It can also move above something like a weekly average so that would amount to alot more but I think will be capped at 20k or so at best in the next 7 days I guess.

I dont judge it as a bear market because it goes sideways for too long.   We rise 20% perhaps one or two weeks and people think the negatives are over but its just a longer timeline for the whole layers of BTC to filter through.   We can be at this price for at least the rest of this year, in working days thats only a month its not as long as it might appear and very often people get worn out just waiting worrying wondering what happens next when its really very little and then we do one day move larger but hard to say when.
  Neutral to negative, I still dont feel as negative to be bearish as perhaps price alone appears, and I know that the news was negative recently but a company screwing up their books and debt is not a new surprise sadly.

I doubt Qatar has put forward a bribe to win the very first game, its not quite that important and its going to be known as something that happened not that soon after which will ruin the rest of the contest.  Their main concern is that the 170bn spent is put to good use for the betterment of the country overall,, winning just this one match isnt as important.  I do think home advantage is a real thing that'd make a difference.

Large events are not just one day, it'll repeat itself and echo until the energy is played out and resolved in the order books globally.   So like any large price action I expect it to reoccur and reappear in some shape or form almost as a requirement as we recover, its a demon which must be slayed a dozen times to be defeated pretty much.  Part of the reason why is to establish confidence and support so that we can later rise back from this negative blow, even if its not fair exactly or the blockchain itself its something that has to be played out until spent.

Funny thing is the Dollar is probably more of a manipulated market but a big deal is the giant amount of confidence the world has in one centralized dollar backed reserve system.  If that confidence ever falters then it leads to tectonic changes that alter the shape of the world.  Some think thats inevitable, to me crypto is quite ironic in that nobody exactly is in control and that too can bring fear but also its freedom from influence such as politics and fiscal budgets etc. that dominate dollar backing and trade done.

FUN token price was stuck in a loop last I looked at it.   My general take for an end to month prognosis was not positive or especially a near term recovery so I presume its a good bet that we stay in the current range.  I bet at the start of the month mostly and might add now but its not especially an 'easy' bet as we can change and cross that line into the next range of prices but still I think worth a try.
  Yea it might just be me but I swear that mini chart looks different every time I see it (the x axis zoom level varies or something perhaps), now it appears as a symmetrical triangle and that would make it confined but also it will break out of that formation at some point expanding its breadth of prices in a short period of time but I'll stick with my general guess we dont move too much before December or so

Many disagree but Ive always thought proof of stake is more then worth the exploration and time to develop for the greater good of crypto.  As we've found out there is a giant amount of risk and loss thats occured with all these 'ideas'  and quite a bit of fraud also but is it still worth it.
  Its a given from an open source standard that people will innovate however they like and then its the free market which decides a price; I will agree with OP but only to argue the price of secondary blockchains should probably be far less otherwise let people do as they will.    Last thing we need to do is argue in favor of big government and regulation which throttles the freedom of people to invent and innovate.

Companies which invest can write off losses against profits (tax deductibles etc.) and not suffer in the same way private investors would with their own money.   Its risky but if they can see any upside such as gaining a customer base or some kind of crossover venture perhaps to reinvent the exchange I guess anything is possible.   Nicehash lost everything right and somehow came back from that as I remember though I was surprised they did it

Ecuador is a hot country, Im going with simple logic as to why Qatar wont win this one especially.  Against a country from a poorer climate and if its hot on that day especially, then maybe and recently its been especially hotter then normal.  Qatar can outperform but I'll guess its the heat that most helps them to do so and makes its far  more likely as a good bet.

Most likely measures like this will represent some positive but also some fallout continues to land, hence price sways back and forth.  Even with no news available and no knowledge of events I would still speculate on a wavering price for some time similar to any large shock wave it will take time to stabilize, and I think thats natural process for both BTC and the wider crypto economy to go through.  Its partly because all humans react in similar ways to fear and risk of loss vs opportunity and because we all react in line its herd or crowd wave effect where the energy will take time to work through both on the charts and various other less purely numerical ways.  
  I will guess our time to recovery will be guided by something like the 50 day average becoming far closer to everyday prices before we accumulate enough positive momentum.

2008 was the start of the QE programs, except Japan which had been doing it through the 1990s also.   One thing you can be sure of it wont make a country richer, all it can do at best is displace the effects to another time.   Since we never repay the QE its going to end badly and completely unravel; this relates to volatility which is rising and will continue to do so.

The bottom price for BTC is hard to predict because it should not rely on dollar but its own prospects and efficiency.   If BTC cannot help the world with the utility it provides then it does not deserve to do well, if Dollar becoming unstable and BTC more able is possible then I would agree all the prices in the teens are valid to buy over a multi year time frame.   The short term speculation over months, weeks and days is more of a wave back and forth, even these upcoming holiday season days could alter those small waves.    Markets will be bullish when they perceive FED has stopped raising rates but thats speculative action not real long term imo.