may be the most impressive bubble of our lifetimes, but technology... no. if it was so incredible, we'd already be doing more with it than just speculating and buying bed sheets online.
Rome wasn't built in a day..... the market cap needs to grow much larger before it can make an impact. is it not growing fast enough for you? |
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panic buying.... you could call it that. but what a bloody good price to panic buy at!
aaaannndd there goes 600 at stamp........
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Finally I can hear the train coming....
Im gonna leave this town.... gonna be a voodoo child... gonna be a magic boy come back and buy this town, yeah, and put it all in my shoe...... thats what Im gonna do. and if you make love to me one more time girl, I might give a piece - to you! I hear my train a comin! good time baby good time baby! |
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anyone could guess that an asset which increases at a rate of 8000% pa can easily crash by 75%..... you must mentally prepare yourself for rough times. low expectations. dont trade every swing.
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Don't be a bear in denial, earlier on there was a 2k bid wall being eaten now 3k wall. He genuinely wants to buy and no one to sell at this range now..
Might be our 10k noob sell whale, back in business.
Edit: Wall moved up to 584, he wants coins..
Indeed, Im was in far too good company of bears today on BTCe, those buy walla appeared one after the other... I dont believe in fake walls....this is a critical point..... Im warming up to the prospect of 'to da moon!' I do believe in fake walls because I have seen them and been stung by them many times. If this whale wants 3K Bitcoins at sub $600 prices, he is going the wrong way about it.......it is a manipulative bid....whether it is a benevolent or malevolent manipulation bid remains to be seen. I just took a $500 USD hit on my short and am now long, chasing the momentum caused by 3K wall just like everyone else. We well see how this transpires......keeping my eyes peeled on that mother fucker and his 3K stamp bid very closely. it's a fact.... you cannot raise a buy wall of 3k coins without risking that another whale gobbles it up in one go. such a risk is counter intuitive considering 'fake' walls are a contrary indicator. |
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Don't be a bear in denial, earlier on there was a 2k bid wall being eaten now 3k wall. He genuinely wants to buy and no one to sell at this range now..
Might be our 10k noob sell whale, back in business.
Edit: Wall moved up to 584, he wants coins..
Indeed, Im was in far too good company of bears today on BTCe, those buy walla appeared one after the other... I dont believe in fake walls....this is a critical point..... Im warming up to the prospect of 'to da moon!' |
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This explanation is simple plausible and practical. really great.
I like to say, never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity. This is one case.
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there are 100k coins stolen from silkroad #2, 144k coins with the FBI, and now possibly 750k coins loose from Mt Gox in circulation. we need to remember that the potential supply to the market could be very large and unpredictable. the top dogs in this market are holding BTC, not fiat, and if the large fiat players are not stepping in now, we should not be surprised by further downside.
This morning there was a 1k sell wall on BTCe @ 560. Im not a believer in fake walls. the bidding that has begun could go far tonight, and Huobi and stamp are leading the way.
EDIT: we have an uncertain support from fiat holders, and a severely unknown supply from BTC holders. my point is that, at best, what will come in the next weeks and months will be unpredictable, although the monthly trend is down.
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looks good to me. 630 is the confirmation I am looking for, that would terminate the entire wedge (EW analysis) but after that...... its not gonna be a straight line unfortunately. we will likely be around 500-700 for a long time.
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I have spent years on the forex scalping, and time is a really important component to taking loss/profit.
but I have no strategy, ones need to develop an eye for the market, and be able to visualise several likely outcomes to a given trade, and judge what
time frame they are likely to happen within. It is bad to take loss before your trade has had time to develop, and it is bad to take profit too late.
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so down trend setting in for the night...... what is there to hold back the price other than 430 lvl? from a TA perspective, the 430 lvl is weak.... very little price history in that area.
Ill say again, it simply wouldn't surprise me if we pass 430.... waves often diverge like that after capitulation. the bottom needs time, and the market is timid, and the down trend remains intact.
but also looking out for the unexpected interception forming H&S bottom....
Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake......
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only one thing is certain - he is very thick.
you cannot own an exchange steal 700k coins and get away with it. I simply don’t buy that theory.
He simply screwed it up. He allowed double spending, he warmed up his cold storage, he took no caution and he had no expertise.
- or maybe the FBI has played a part in it - that I can believe.
Why can he not get away with it? Have you seen his smug face? FBI? More like NSA or Japanese government! Ive seen his smug face - but that will not help him against the forces of the US and Japanese govt. if you are involved with the heist of 300mollion dollars and your identity is known, you are done for. besides - he could have got away with 100 million without being noticed. it wasnt him. |
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only one thing is certain - he is very thick.
you cannot own an exchange steal 700k coins and get away with it. I simply don’t buy that theory.
He simply screwed it up. He allowed double spending, he warmed up his cold storage, he took no caution and he had no expertise.
- or maybe the FBI has played a part in it - that I can believe.
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For that to have occurred, the said shorters would have to have shorted at something like $430? Who would have done that?
Who who shorted at $600, $550, $500, or even $450, wouldn't have taken profits and gotten out?
I was expecting/fearing an upside short squeeze, if left to Bitfinex manipulators it would have transpired. But Huobi said NO!
There will be no short squeeze for those who shorted at $590. How much scope there is for profits beneath is another matter with so many shorts looking to come out their trades which they must do by buying back into market.
It does'nt matter where/when one shorts, positions reverse when the market hits the bottom, be it panic or profit taking. I suppose you are refering to stoploss orders triggering. I dont know to what degree that effects the BTC market. the larger investors would not use them is such a volatile market. I sold at 750, and I reversed my sell position at 500 because I saw there was a risk of breaking the monthly down trend, but the bull run has stalled, and Im looking for a move to the downside. I agree with rpietila that capitulation has occured, but we should see 500 again, and it woudnt at all surprise me if we saw a lower bottom, but I will not expect it, only hope. |
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I disagree.
I think we are about to come out of this rather tight trading range within the next 18 hours, and probably much sooner.
I think we will see break up, aided and abetted by shorters covering their positions, longs will pile in, and the whales (exchange associated traders I suspect) who are ensuring the market is pushed up when it really wants to go back down, well then dump into the rush of long interest, which will force a strong correction, aided and abetted by panicked sellers fearing a textbook retracement to $400 range. However, I don't see this getting down much lower than say $540, where the whale rats will buy back their dumped coins and take tidy profits for successfully fucking the market like a bitch once again. At this point, All indicators will be in place for drive up.
So I suspect a good bit of market volatility is within sight, problem is that it will be a market volatility that stings the majority, and enriches the few who are causing it to occur.
For the record, I reckon lower lows before new ATHs......but not before a good period of uptrending.
Looks to me like the short trader squeeze has already occured with a 50% surge from 400. If it were to break upwards from this consolidation, it would have to also break a monthly down trend. 4 hour and 6 hour stochastic/rsi indicate over bought and signal sell. I also dont see why longs should pour in, longs only just poured out, those traders will be too timid to re enter the market. |
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The only force driving the market up is elite investors, and they dont buy high if you know what I mean! they will wait patiently in the shadows. very patiently, because the world is shell shocked about bitcoin right now.
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I also feel like the capitulation happened at 400, it was a textbook bottom with the irrational fear of gox and the panic selling.
but flash bang and it's done? the move has failed break the trend, and so these lows need to be retested. the forces that are playing here cannot resolve in mere days. we should expect a fib retracement of at least of 50% to cerca 500 after a few days of quiet and consolidation. This is really common in any primary wave.
600 is going to be tough territory, we have already hit a barrier. The shell shocked will not be interested in buying back until the price is much higher, and until then, where will the demand come from? only the elite investors, and rest assured, they do not want to drive the market out of their own reach.
So I think we have entered the slow and miserable part of the capitulation.
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