You obviously put a lot of thought into this post but...
No, didn't take much thought at all. Why? Did it really have to take a lot of thought? Do you even know me? Why do you have to choose words or phrases that are condescending?
Do you presume I'm ignorant or something based off what you have read in my post? Can you not have an open mind instead of being focused on your own bitcoin mining intellectualism? For all I know, you post this garb on here in the hopes that others who read will not mine or will not continue to mine.
I already had the pictures on my desktop from this same discussion in other forums and PM's.
You don't seem to realize that mining, in the longterm, is a zero sum game. If BTC hits $900 again (and holds), all of the ASIC manufacturers will quickly fill their current DCs with more efficient equipment and build new DCs all with access to much cheaper electricity than you could ever dream of getting.
You act like THEY will have a corner on the Billions of dollars worth yet to mine. You act like the pools won't be able to mine another block after they do this. That's why we have pools. There is power in numbers.
In the future there may be brief periods where there is a gap between higher price BTC and build-out of new DCs, just as there was last fall. And you may have good profitability during those times. But those periods will likely get shorter because the ASIC manufacturers are able to build-out more quickly and efficiently.
That's why I'm getting ahead of the game while I can
in terms of how much equipment I have to get well ahead of the difficulty and the revenue I want to bring home each month. I'm adding an S4
if not an S5 to my small farm every month until end of April. After April, I'm adding two S4's
if not an S5 to my small farm every month until I have a 50 to 180 Th/s.
I spent $4,000.00 for 16 Bitmain Antminer S3's. They mined enough
BTC to buy an S4. It only cost me $364.00 in electricity that I paid out of pocket to buy that S4.
The way I see it, I got that S4 for $364.00 out of pocket. I'm putting off the $4000.00 pay off of the S3's till a later date. I'm paying for my electricity
out of pocket and using all mined
BTC to purchase more S4's or S5's. So, like I said, I'm getting my S4's or S5's at a discount (the cost of electricity out of pocket to mine them).
I'm PUTTING OFF paying the $4,000.00 initial investment until my mining revenue is much higher. Once it gets to the point that my electricity is approximately $1,000.00 in costs each month, I will stop paying for the electricity out of pocket and use my mined
BTC to pay for it. That point in time will be end of April.
At the end of April I will have approximately six (6) S4's and sixteen (16) S3's for a total of approximately 19.4 Th/s if not over clocked. At present difficulty, 19.6 Th/s can mine approximately 0.24722657
BTC per day. That is approximately 7.4167971
BTC every 30 days. You and I both know that difficulty will not remain at 39.5 billion. It will climb. How much? Who knows? The point is that puts me well ahead of the game IN THE BEGINNING before I'm even concerned about paying myself back for investment. Keep in mind, I got my S4's if not S5's at a discount (what I paid in electricity costs).
7.4167971
BTC at present is approximately $3,142.79 with
BTC price at $423.74 US.
Maybe you wish to argue that the difficulty will rise and I will not continue those profits?
Here is my argument:For every 1 Billion the difficulty rises, the price of
BTC can off set that rise in difficulty if it goes up .97519807% (approximately 1%).
Here is my proof:
Note the difficulty in the top left of the conversion calculator is at 39,629,645,941 THEN note that I added 1 billion to the difficulty at the next screen shot. However, the revenue per time frame is approximately the same. Why? Because I raised the price of
BTC .97519807% (approximately 1%); which see. I raised the price of
BTC from $424.65 US to $435.45 US. We cannot say the price has to rise approximately $11.00 US every time the difficulty goes up 1 Billion. We have to say it in percentages.
The reason I have $7,984 in equipment costs and not $4,000.00 is to include what I paid in electricity to get up to 19.4 Th/s; along with an exhaust fan, switch, etc...
ALSO NOTICE IT SAYS HARDWARE BREAK EVEN SHORTLY AFTER 100 DAYS FROM THE POINT OF ACHIEVING 19.4 Th/s. That is IF I decided to stop adding another rig to my farm!
I understand if the difficulty goes up, we mine less bitcoin and need to add more hashing power IF the price of bitcoin remains the same. However, if the price of bitcoin rises approximately 1% for every 1 billion the difficulty rises, it is offset. Isn't it? If I'm wrong, please let me know.
We simply can not compete with ASIC manufacturers. Home mining is and always will be a horrible longterm investment even if BTC gets to $2000. Only a few individuals who perfectly time the market may be able to earn a positive return.
Sorry, but YES WE CAN. That's why we have pools. There is power in pools. So what we don't make as much money as the big gigantic farms do. I'm not trying to build a gigantic farm. I cannot compete with them if I cannot obtain rigs at the same price they do. I'm not trying to compete ON THAT LEVEL. I'm simply working to get 50 to 180 TH/s as quickly as possible cause I'm betting the price of
BTC will continue to rise at a slightly higher percentage than 1% for every 1 billion the difficulty rises.
POSTS WERE DELETED ON THIS FIRST PAGE IN THE FORUM IN RESPONSE TO OTHERS WHO SEEMED MORE INTERESTING IN CUTTING ME DOWN RATHER THAN HONESTLY TRYING TO INFORM. I GOT UPSET AND SAID SOME THINGS I SHOULDN'T HAVE. THERE RESPONSES [IN THE BEGINNING] DID GET ME TO DO MORE INVESTIGATING AND MORE MATH TO DO MY SETUP IN A SAFER MANNER. I DELETED EVERYTHING, THEN I ENDED UP REPOSTING RESPONSES IN A MORE RESPECTFUL MANNER. PLEASE FORGIVE THE DISORGANIZATION OF THIS FORUM THE FIRST 16 POSTS. IT GETS MORE ORGANIZED AFTER THE 16TH POST.MORE SUPPORTED INFORMATION IS GIVEN BY MYSELF LATER IN THE FORUM. ESPECIALLY, ON PAGE 2.
I POINT OUT HOW "HARDWARE BREAK EVEN" IS ACTUALLY CUT SHORTER WITH MORE EQUIPMENT THAN LESS; PROVIDING THE EQUIPMENT WAS BOUGHT AT A GOOD PRICE WITH LOW POWER COSTS.
I POINT OUT THAT WE CAN INCREASE OR DECREASE THE NUMBER OF DAYS ON "HARDWARE BREAK EVEN" BASED ON WHAT PERCENTAGE THE DIFFICULTY GOES UP OR DOWN IN RELATION TO HOW MUCH OF A PERCENTAGE THE PRICE OF BITCOIN HAS GONE UP OR DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS TIME THE DIFFICULTY CHANGED. WHAT EVER THE DIFFERENCE IS IN PERCENTAGE BETWEEN BITCOIN PRICE AND DIFFICULTY, ONE CAN INCREASE OR DECREASE THE NUMBER OF DAYS IN THAT PERCENTAGE TO "HARDWARE BREAK EVEN." THIS ASSUMES YOU HAVE NOT SOLD OR SPENT THE BITCOIN YOU HAVE MINED WHEN THE PRICE AND DIFFICULTY HAS CHANGED. THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES TO CONSIDER IN THIS CALCULATION.
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