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23461  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How long would it take for Anarchy to start working? on: December 07, 2013, 05:49:47 AM
Oh noes! I can't possibly imagine living in a world with no government where certain bad people would no doubt try to steal from me and hurt me to help themselves! So therefore, it's necessary to submit to certain bad people who are the government who steal from me and hurt me to help themselves!

Statism = Logical failure

It's you who logically failed here. You pay some bad guys and they defend you from other bad guys out there. Because of the economy of scale, you actually end up paying much less than you would have to pay without a state behind you. So your imagination wasn't actually deceiving you...
23462  Economy / Economics / Re: Is it the end of BTC??? on: December 07, 2013, 05:41:31 AM
If I had 10,000 BTC I would cash out at 1200 per BTC. That's 12M. I can retire on that and not have to worry about BTC anymore... or really anything. And my kids wouldn't either...

I'd buy a fat annuity and just enjoy the rest of my life.

Just consider for a moment that Bitcoin proponents turn out right after all, and in the next few years your millions will be made worth next to nothing? Do you really think that big bosses don't know about your most cherished dream and the same dream of the crowd out there?
23463  Economy / Economics / Re: the huge Problem that most people doesn't really understand on: December 07, 2013, 05:27:43 AM
to be honest after watching the poverty in Europe report, I feel more comfortable holding some bitcoins than having fiat, each time the price crash/correct than bounce back it makes me more confident about the whole concept of Bitcoin.

I think you can't even picture it to yourself what real poverty looks like...
23464  Economy / Services / Re: Earn up to 0.4BTC/month just by posting! on: December 07, 2013, 05:12:35 AM
Also about this. There is another sig campaign that is paying more than this, but Stunna wants to wait for a month to see if the person actually pays out.

I guess a little competition would be good, although from what I read in this thread, he already has a negative trust score, unfortunately. Did someone jump the gun and assume it was too good to be true? Tongue

By the way, do you have a link to the other campaign? I tried doing a quick search, but was unable to find it.
It is the one with a title saying that it pays up to 0.6 BTC. It is most likely a scam, since it counts all posts, not just the ones you made in the last month. Anyway, we'll find out for sure around Christmas.

I think some daredevils could even try to get double payment for both of these campaigns through signing off from this campaign after receiving payment from Stunna and then signing in for that campaign to get there in time. Personally, I wouldn't do this because even if it turned out not to be a scam after all, this could have "adverse effects" in the long run in case I decide to continue...
23465  Economy / Economics / Re: Is it the end of BTC??? on: December 07, 2013, 04:58:58 AM
You understand that price dropped from1250 to 650 right? I mean not being a bear is one thing and being ridiculous is another.  Roll Eyes

Everyone knew this was coming. Price goes high. Someone that got in early decides they want to retire and they drop 30,000 BTC. Price crashes. Rinse and repeat. The market is too small to bear any amount of sell off.

Ironically, why would they want to drop their stash in the first place? If Bitcoin is the money of the future, it just doesn't make much sense to convert the coins (back) to dollars. So no believing there?
23466  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin simply cannot replace fiat on: December 07, 2013, 03:59:20 AM
The takeaway from that should be that when BTC captures even more of the value that is currently held in other commodities, such as gold, that BTC will continue to increase in value. Which are easier to store & transport...bitcoins or gold bars & coins? Which are easier to use for commerce directly? Bitcoin only has a tiny fraction of the total value held in other commodities, and has the capability of becoming far more useful. So, of the two, an oz of gold seems rather overpriced to me now and a bitcoin seems like an astounding bargain even at current prices.

While i agree with what you said, i was talking about comparing bitcoins with ounces of gold. The comparison is meaningless. There is no point on comparing bitcoins with ounces or grams or kilograms or whatever... If you want to compare 1 out of 21m bitcoins with 1/21000000 of the total weight of gold in earth then ok. It will make much more sense.

Value as such is meaningless, for there is no such thing as objective value in itself and by itself. It exists only in our heads, and our conceptions about it differ at any given time (that's what makes exchange of goods possible). Whether you like or not, people will compare the price of a bitcoin with that of an ounce of gold because it is the subjective value that matters...
23467  Local / Трейдеры / Re: BTC-Trade.ru - обменный сервис биткоинов on: December 06, 2013, 03:55:29 PM
Битстамп снова в строю! Покупка и продажа биткоинов восстановлены.

Где деньги, Зин? Grin
23468  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: December 06, 2013, 03:48:47 PM
You missed my point. The person whose identity they do know any where down the chain, is in deep shit until they can provide the upstream and downstream name who they bought from and sold to. Then when they help the IRS to identify those, then ditto for those people and so on, until it reaches back to you.

No, I didn't because I kept that in mind. To work it that way, first of all, you would have to physically catch and corner everyone who is down the chain.

No the NSA only needs to catch one IP address of one person on the chain.

It seems that now you are trying to confuse and obfuscate matters. At first you said the person down the chain would be in deep trouble because they would knock the crap out of him until he provided the names of whom he had bought from and sold to, and then you are saying that they only need to catch one IP address of one person on the chain. If the poor wretch just doesn't know the names how can he be of any help to the investigators?

And this still doesn't prove that they wouldn't have to catch everyone (which is what you assumed)...
23469  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: December 06, 2013, 03:15:08 PM
You believe propaganda put out by mafia because you want so much for the Snowden thing to be a good for us. Well it is good in a way, he revealed how corrupt everything is, but you want to think Russia isn't just playing the politics to win over your mind. By the way Merkel said, "at least the German STASI didn't get caught". So there are no good guys out there. It is all sh8t.

Face it, we are doomed. I know it is difficult to accept. The sooner you leave the fantasy world and realize what humanity is really facing at this junction, the more likely we can actually do something effective about it.

I don't believe they are good in any imaginable way. But as long as they fighting with each other, we are not doomed. I think you're crying wolf right now. Are you trying to make yourself into a a self-proclaimed messiah? What you say here looks much like propaganda as well...
23470  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: December 06, 2013, 03:08:21 PM
The Homeland Security in the USA is procuring 2714 tank-like armored vehicles and billions of rounds of hollow-point bullets over next 8-9 years (which are illegal in war by Hague Convention).

Etc, etc, etc. If you can't see the writing on the wall, you are blind.

The hollow-point bullets you refer to here have been in use for many decades by both police and civilians for self-defense as well for hunting big game. They are among the most common types of bullets beyond military primarily due to the reduced risk of hitting bystanders with passed through or ricocheted bullets and the increased incapacitation capability. The Hague Convention you mention here has also universally prohibited, for example, bombs discharged from anything that flies through the air (then balloons). Such bullets haven't really been used widely in warfare by all belligerents due to more prosaic reasons such as lowered penetrating capability, poor ballistics in the long range, problems with cartridge feeding in automatic rifles, etc...
23471  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: December 06, 2013, 11:28:39 AM
Do you think we will have free markets if we depend on the mafia who run Russia? Also Russia is going bankrupt.

At times your perverted logic makes me laugh really. You blame the US government of all sorts of sins (and what not), and at the same time make references to mafia in Kremlin... Who is the real mafia out there? Also, I think that with all those prices of oil and other natural resources we see nowadays, it will take ages to see Russia go bankrupt

Though I never said that a resource-based economy would be good for being excessively vulnerable to external factors...
23472  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: December 06, 2013, 11:15:54 AM
Once the IRS starts attacking, no one will accept or sell coins without knowing the identity of the counter-party.

The government is sitting back letting the wildwest go on so as to let electronic money become popular. Then they will crack their whip and it will done. There will be no difference between Bitcoin and 666. Everything is on the public ledger. Much worse than cash.

Despite what you say, they weren't able to do anything to Edward Snowden, so I think it is not too late yet. Though I agree that anonymity of Bitcoin is a myth. Was trying to explain this to one of the converts here, but to no avail...

Don't you know what Russia does to anyone who exposes the corruption in Russia, see the poisoning of Litvinenko.

Firstly, as far as I know, Litvinenko was mixed up in the illegal rare earth metal trade and poisoned himself through his own carelessness and rough handling of the radioactive polonium isotope. Secondly, even if what I heard is false and he was actually murdered in 2006 by Russian authorities, you still can't deny the fact that the Russians declined the US government's request for Edward Snowden's extradition now...

Actions speak louder than words ("show me the code", lol)
23473  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply on: December 06, 2013, 10:38:57 AM
As far as I remember, a modern economic theory based on Keynesian is called Neo-Keynesian economics. And Monetarism (in its present state often referred to as Neo-Monetarism) is also a modern economic theory. In fact, I don't remember the textbooks I happened to read calling the Keynesian economic theory as just "Economics"...

Yes, governments may love Keynesianism, but to say that they they love only Keynesianism would be a bit far-fetched (mildly speaking). They employ Monetarism principles just as easily, especially in questions of money supply and central banking

No, they pretty much love Keynesianism. Monetarism is more towards a self-regulator style than Keynesianism is. Politicians prefer to spend without consequence because they prefer to be able to be re-elected and want to reward the special interests that got them the money to get them where they are. As for the Fed, and monetary policy, they have the dubious task of the dual mandate. For argument's sake, let's say the Phillip's Curve holds, how the F are they supposed to do their job? Fight unemployment, you get more inflation. Fight inflation, you get more unemployment. Trying to fight both is Keynesianism idealism at it's stupidest.

If we exclude voluntary unemployment (which by definition doesn't make much sense to fight with unless we're in a communist state or on something else beyond economics), what exactly are you blaming Keynesianism in? What's inherently wrong in trying to lower involuntary unemployment and keep inflation within the limits? As far as I remember, the Phillips curve is nowadays considered as being too simplistic and the relationship is not actually observed in the long term...
23474  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How long would it take for Anarchy to start working? on: December 06, 2013, 10:16:15 AM
There is nobody who "didn't agree on the laws in the first place" since there's no single law-system to agree upon; you have your beliefs in justice, other people have theirs, and if your beliefs clash with other people's, either they or you must adjust.

Now you confirm in your own words that anarchy as you see it doesn't in fact differ very much from what state actually is all about. If we clear away the verbal husks of what you say here, we necessarily come to a system where majority would suppress minority in any possible way... How's that different from what state does?
23475  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How long would it take for Anarchy to start working? on: December 06, 2013, 10:08:01 AM
If people willingly go into concentration camps, they'd be lunatics; to get people to get into them requires force, which violates my 4th law.  If I violate my 4th law and manage to kill people in attempting to get them into the camps, I'd violate my 1st law, as well as "exterminating" them would violate this law as well.  If I profited from this law-breaking, I'd violate my 2nd law; and I won't get into my 3rd law, as that's rather disgusting.

Oh, I like this doublespeak you, guys, stick to here! I used the reference to concentration camps as a metaphor only. In real life it would mean something along the lines of "finding it impossible to interact with those around them" and "finally having to move somewhere". And you didn't exclude psychological abuse from your list of rules... How come?
23476  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How long would it take for Anarchy to start working? on: December 06, 2013, 09:59:45 AM
Lets do an exercise: name your top 5 laws you'd like to live by.  I'll list mine:

1. No murder
2. No thievery
3. No rape
4. No physical abuse, aside from defense
5. In other words, no acts of aggression

Why should I bind myself in any way by listing any laws? When you interact with people you rely primarily on your instincts, not on however short a list of laws. Our social nature has already given us everything to talk or do things with other people. In fact, these laws you refer to are nothing more than just a formal expression of that social nature of humans...
23477  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: December 06, 2013, 09:06:47 AM
Now if you were careful in the past, you might remain anonymous, but don't forget the NSA is storing all the data and it is very likely you have leaked your identity in a cookie in a Google ad, in a VPN that is a honeypot, in Tor exit node that is a honeypot, in timing analysis in Tor, in a firefox exploit in Tor, etc...

And in the future, no one who can surely be 100% reliably anonymous will accept payment from you if you don't provide your identity.

This is the crucial point of your argument. If there is some level of truly anonymous transactions where you don't know the guy at the other end and he doesn't know you either, the reasons backing you up become impractical to carry out day in and day out. I don't say it is impossible, my point is that the effort just won't be worth it and would create such a mess that losses from this mess would ever exceed potential gains...
23478  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: December 06, 2013, 09:00:35 AM
If they don't know your wallet, the information about someone down the chain won't help them.

You missed my point. The person whose identity they do know any where down the chain, is in deep shit until they can provide the upstream and downstream name who they bought from and sold to. Then when they help the IRS to identify those, then ditto for those people and so on, until it reaches back to you.

No, I didn't because I kept that in mind. To work it that way, first of all, you would have to physically catch and corner everyone who is down the chain. How do you really imagine that? Secondly, as it routinely happens in a cash world, you often don't know who you transact with, so you just wouldn't be able to give out any names. When the transactions numbers reach some point, it simply becomes impractical on a daily basis for an average Joe who is suspected in tax evasion...
23479  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: December 05, 2013, 11:05:45 PM
I suspect $/BTC is going down slightly in the near term. Not enough that it's worth paying the short term capital gains taxes, though.

Anyway, how does Deisik's Law work if the two currencies constantly oscillate around each other? One minute Bitcoin is undervalued and people spend dollars, the next minute dollars are undervalued and people spend bitcoins? Seems to me that that's the equilibrium state in terms of game theory.

Piece o'cake! The currencies may be on a par, so the oscillation can go on indefinitely long. The net effect would ultimately depend on what all participants think over all planning horizons. This has an interesting similarity to a self-fulfilling prophecy with the roots obviously lying in the subjective theory of value...
23480  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: December 05, 2013, 10:42:35 PM
I hope somebody would explain you what currency appreciation/depreciation means, or you can always ask Google yourself. Presently, I'd rather stick to explaining your other points which seem to me of greater importance...

OK, I think I got that part.

Now, is $/BTC going to be higher or lower two weeks from now?

I don't know really. But I consider the probability of Bitcoin exchange rate going down higher than that for dollar at least in the midterm (my planning horizon). So I do think that Bitcoin presently makes a bad money beside dollar, which, correspondingly, will be a good money then. It may just be my fear or whatever, but what causes me think so doesn't actually matter here...
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