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2361  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🕹️ Esports 🎮 Prediction & Discussion Thread on: November 12, 2022, 08:33:06 PM
Furia swinging that win is kinda incredible, when they lost the first map but just barely I put on a bet at 4.5x odds for them to win.  I take no credit, I was just hedging my other bet for Navi but at those odds despite being wrong elsewhere I broke even but they surprised many people there.   Partly its down to Navi not quite being 100% understandably and also Furia outperforming on home turf.

Outsiders to take this win I think is a fair bet
2362  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: November 12, 2022, 06:53:16 PM
30  years is a pension term type consideration and very few people start saving in their twenties to benefit from that time-frame.   10 years is feasible for FUN token, I cant see why it would not and to last a decade like that will more then justify the pricing right now and to hold it for benefits etc. is basically a no brainer, of course you should.   The only reason not to is people have no patience to do so, the whole world has a bias to spending right now not saving.   I have a hard time explaining to anyone the difference from capital to income, keep some back because crypto shows it gains irregularly but when it does the gains are well worth it.
2363  Economy / Speculation / Re: The world is not doing well on: November 11, 2022, 11:59:26 PM
World GDP is positive, and Dollar has inflation which means assets rise

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Dollar exchange rate strengthened.

Yet prices in Dollar are not dropping as to be expected with a currency gaining value.  All thats happening is dollar has some inflation and other currencies perhaps alot more but all FIAT paper is suffering losses which makes any useful asset with utility likely to fair better then plain cash for the ordinary citizen.

The main reasoning for Dollar to rise are the losses in YEN and EURO, the two latest counter parties to Dollar index.  Europe has war conditions to their commodity pricing possibly bringing retraction to economies and YEN has demographic generational problems with its growth and the currency is broken thanks to excessive new currency issued by their central bank.  Its quite likely YEN fails to some extent it wont be worth retaining.
2364  Economy / Economics / Re: I smell Fed pivot on: November 11, 2022, 11:23:49 PM
The ultimate push for FED is the US treasury debt is mostly financed on a low time frame which requires less then a 4 year turn over of the debt on average.  That means while they raise the rates, its quickly reflected in the cost of debt interest to the government and so a fiscal budget that increasingly must allocate to just servicing the rising cost of debt.  Its very bearish and why the FED will lower rates as gov spending is reduced and so GDP with it very likely; but the time frame isnt this year imo.
2365  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop the panic, I doubt we will see 14k or less Bitcoin on: November 11, 2022, 10:28:29 PM
People will try to talk down BTC for as long as its a feasible profitable trade.  Right this moment Dollar is weaker, just in time to save BTC a real beating from a bearish market, instead its seeing some reversal in expectation due to event news around inflation figures.   How long that lasts is not known as its purely speculation on easier FED moves, the Dollar index moved 1.6% just today which is big enough to help buoy the prices up of most assets I think.   BTC still has buyers with weaker currency, so I think it'll always have some opportunities available in that case.


2366  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🕹️ Esports 🎮 Prediction & Discussion Thread on: November 11, 2022, 08:21:59 PM
I would have expected 3 maps for that match, Spirit slipped on their own map and nearly won Heroic's pick proving they could have taken the series even but all for naught unfortunately.

Furia vs Navi can that goto 3 maps.  People are getting a bit carried away to suggest Furia can win the entire major apparently, shouldnt happen but home advantage can make anything possible.  I'll go with 3 maps for fun, arguably betting 0-2 for Navi win is nicer odds at 2.65x
2367  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: November 11, 2022, 12:17:12 AM
You can sell enough to buy some lollypops or pocket money for whatever but yea in nominal terms it would seem it can rise much eventually after a long and winding road most likely.   I wouldnt deal in absolutes of hold all or sell all, I like the guy who mentioned having a shorter term lock on some of the FUN token and just selling the little extra that provides in the near term. 
   Mostly I hold the longer term with the highest return given and I dont sell that as Im too close to the boundary on the upper tiers, I would lose my time bonus if I dealt too much.   Others who are speculating in the token without wanting the benefits are more free to do as they wish, but the water is muddy imo I prefer to keep it small time relatively.
2368  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hmmm....No way! on: November 10, 2022, 11:59:22 PM
Doesnt have to repeat, its a case of observation and contrast.   I do expect us to repeat this whole range from 20k possibly down to 10k as an extreme, simple reason being we lack volume in this area.   Theres little resistance when we previously briefly passed through every price in the teens.   As we move below 14k there are more prior BTC price points to slow us down but Im going to be surprised if we bounce right back up without any hesitation.



So how we react to this first resistance/support is probably the best judge of how BTC will proceed.  At first the Binance bailout meant a daily close above here which was bullish conclusion to weakness but it failed as the event developed.   Hence now this is probably the most familiar price point to judge it from.   In regards to previous years and the old peak thats a weekly bar discussion and 12781 is about where I think we have that preestablished range but whether we repeat or how varied we are is yet to be known.
2369  Economy / Economics / Re: How much longer until paper money is no longer in circulation? on: November 10, 2022, 11:52:31 PM
It doesnt especially matter at this point, the majority of currency circulated is never printed.  Discussing the impact of a declining trend to using paper notes is not that influential to the movement of cash.   Some people prefer it but its already seen as suspicious to only deal with cash even when the business operated is specifically cash only and those people have to be careful when handling large amounts of cash due to its rarity to do so.
2370  Economy / Speculation / Re: The most stupid dip in Bitcoin's history - and why we can be happy now on: November 10, 2022, 10:19:21 PM
Organic growth is probably best but Im not sure the weakness is over despite the good recovery today.  I agree the reasoning to sell off was not especially valid but happened anyway and so now I expect we will have to explore these prices some more to be sure its established as a low.  However anything can happen, right this moment we are trading higher then the 2 day average pricing so thats pretty full positive price action to occur so fast.   Also the price now is about where the old support was, it might be a ceiling not sure.
2371  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fast up fast down on: November 10, 2022, 12:16:25 AM
I was beginning to think I had missed the uptrend, left a buy too late to catch 'perfect'.    In the back of my mind, the ultimate test the trip for those confident in their step was an obvious plot device for the path of BTC.   Melodrama is a must in the crypto world I guess, its a reflection of hype we must have the plunge and hit the granite face first before we can witness the strength of who and what gets back up to take the climb further.   
   
   I presume we must now explore this full range, very roughly the price action in the teens not just the orbit near to 20k.    Its always a time for caution when the double sided light saber comes out the weapons cupboard with doji candles its a volatile sign for sure; perhaps church bells sounded from the local monastery should ring out to warn of an invasion of interest with irritating news articles on the perils of Bitcoin.



18k down to 12k there isnt much action (period end 2017 to 2020 market and breakup), bit of an air pocket and so potential weakness in this area.   Simply put its easier to traverse from one side of this area to the other then high traffic areas with lots of trades set down; here there is not much trading seen previously.  I presume we can move through all this area without even being that bearish, not much power is required so its 'icy'.

Its only a rough chart, I think theres plenty of time to draw it a hundred times in the dirt while we're here navigating the fog of news events, price will loop a few times imo.  Hopefully I'm incorrect and we return to 20k + by end of week, guessing not though.
2372  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: November 09, 2022, 11:51:54 PM
ETH gas fees are very high despite switching to POS

POS is an efficient system (cheap) but there is some benefit given to those staking.  As Ive read it I understand the fees are maintained high on purpose but with the fee sent to be burnt thereby improving price presumably by reducing the overall supply of ETH available.   Interesting idea, means anyone who has ETH at all even the small people could see some benefit to this system.   Unfortunately the users who do not hold any ETH just purely transient usage have these high fees to transact so its questionable (negative feedback effect maybe) if it'll be a good idea overall but I prefer it to only proof of work existing.

Current BTC action has broken what should have been a good trend, so now most relevant price action to reference would be the peaks of 2019 and those kind of levels.  Judge strength by reaction in that range seems probably our path now.   Thats BTC for you I guess, eternally volatile and tested with these harsh back tracks in prices.  Is the sell off valid because that exchange messed up, not sure about that.
2373  Economy / Speculation / Re: 80% share anti trust concerns on: November 09, 2022, 11:29:16 PM
Its surely a test of strength, cutting to the bone the resolve of those who believe in longer term strength.  A major point in a take over by Binance was the amount of market share that would then be attributed to Binance would bring with it a headache in terms of regulation and red tape apparently this is strong discouragement along with other factors.   Its possible a few other parties could take on partial assets like a normal liquidation but thats not the easy solution some might have hoped for
2374  Economy / Speculation / Re: There will be more down - bearish on BTC on: November 09, 2022, 08:03:11 PM
Theres sure to be more tests now this event has negated support, momentum and the recovery a few times over.   how many tests are required to rebuild support is debatable but at least we break from the sideways range I think is quite certain now.  I dont think this exchange was a big enough reason but its not for me to decide.
2375  Economy / Speculation / Re: what caused the bitcoin price to drop today? on: November 09, 2022, 06:23:23 AM
The reaction is overdone but not unknown action we've had big scares similar to this.  So far as the news, I think the failed exchange is to be taken over and it'll be sorted out but I could be wrong.  Anyhow doubts will quickly knock the price down from lack of buyers and willing sellers, doesnt take too much to upset the balance at least for a few hours and we'll see further out.



Shame we had a nice rise going on there, this is about as harsh a retest as one could expect to see.   However its closed above support so there is already some bounce back underway to speculate on.
2376  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: November 08, 2022, 04:43:38 PM
At todays pricing thats about $3.70 which isnt cheap but probably to be expected alot of places and I agree it discourages usage as most people arent throwing around lots of money in transactions and for the health of crypto overall it has to be usable by ordinary people not just rich large sized transactions.   On a large scale obviously 3 or 4 dollars is nothing at all in that respect but I'd agree its some discouragement to general interest etc.
Right now FBC itself shows withdrawal fee of  " TRANSACTION FEES 2043 FUN"

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So, roughly it's 0.005% win chance

Odds of about 20,000 to 1 roughly, that day you were extremely lucky.   Its not impossible type odds but yea anytime that happens was not a normal day for sure.    I hope you get the same luck on the draw itself and then pick me up for a nice ride down to somewhere sunny in the Lambo, slightly more improbable lol
2377  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Apple Pauses Gambling Ads in App Store Pages After Developers Complain on: November 08, 2022, 03:38:55 PM
Youtube biggest problem is the comments often contain bad links and commercial posts, not to mention some live broadcasts themselves are scam or phishing operations.   Their slightly iffy adverts are secondary to actual fraudulent videos they allow to mislead and deceive their customer base.     There is no perfect area possible but Apple is probably correct to regulate the advert content because I know the customers themselves would want to control what type of adverts they want to see.  I only disagree with outright bans for legal companies, a customer should be allowed to see anything they wish at their own choice not the corporate censors choice.
2378  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🕹️ Esports 🎮 Prediction & Discussion Thread on: November 08, 2022, 02:16:41 AM
Maybe changing to the southern hemisphere upset their aim like navigational magnetic north for birds or something.  Maybe they were jet lagged, its possible for a team to be upset in their sleeping and all sorts of fairly minor things can add up.  Faze being the former winners and still #1 now means they are the bullseye target for every other team wanting to counter strat all that they do, its almost literally the name of the game to do so.   Sadly they could not adapt but its fairly surprising they lose to the Bad News Eagles.
   I said only a while ago that I thought Eagles could upset a team 10 ranks ahead of them (they didnt) but its very unusual for a team over 20 ranks lower to throw out another team.  I bet the odds were great, I didnt even look at that possibility sadly.    Very close games, CS very often is and its why its a good esports game and to bet on also I think.
2379  Economy / Gambling / Re: Do you bet ESports or table tennis? If so, this is a must read. on: November 08, 2022, 12:08:40 AM
Good rule of thumb, is all opportunities come with risk apparent and unknown.   If this was a dead cert situation, we'd see OP writing this post as a youtube video located in a fine tropical offshore yacht and many benefits from already realizing this strategy.   Sadly the more success you have in betting from known info before the game or thrown games, the more obvious it would become to those who are aware of the normal percentages to losing etc.  Its just aways going to be risky even if OP is true to his word, unfortunately nothing is easy for long and I play for fun so its not appealing to me tbh.
2380  Economy / Economics / Re: Is recession coming actually? on: November 07, 2022, 11:34:26 PM
I would state it the other way round, accounting for already current and past inflation we have had a negative GDP relative to that for a few years at least.   Quite a big clue is the decline in wages relative to simple costs like food, the purchasing power parity is declining even for those in employment.  Its part of why creating new money is popular with governments is that it hides low growth because inflation is creating higher nominal numbers and the accounting is variable for actual value of the currency.
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