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23741  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 06:22:03 PM
I did explain the problem with your logic.

GOLD IS HARD TO  USE IN TRANSACTIONS.  It has significant disadvantages and cost.   This is what lead to the usage of gold backed notes.  Bitcoin suffer no such disadvantages.  Bitcoin banks using Bitcoins as a reserve to issue private script are unlikely to be popular as simply holding real Bitcoins is easier and less risky.  Unlike gold there isn't a compelling reason to take on the additional counterparty risk.

You're like that guy who insisted that decentralization was the main virtue behind Bitcoin, though this time you say it is transactions that make Bitcoin so appealing (Visa and MasterCard will be rather surprised)
23742  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 06:03:34 PM
Also without a central bank able to print infinite amounts of money and be the lender of last resort many of those banks will fail and when they fail depositors will lose everything.  This will further reduce the real return.   Net change in purchasing power = interest - inflation - losses.

You could just enter "free banking era" in your favorite search engine and look for yourself. Not all banks failed and not all of them inflated their "dollars". As far as I remember, only one third of them went bankrupt...
23743  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 06:02:19 PM
Simple version:
a) Bitcoins in bank = losing purchasing power daily.
b) Bitcoins not in bank = gaining purchasing power daily.
Your conclusion: The vast majority of people will knowingly opt for "a".

If the bank doesn't fail you get your bitcoins back plus interest. Without a bank there you wouldn't get anything, just saved your bitcoins...
23744  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 05:54:41 PM
And you didn't explain what was wrong with my logic regarding "free banking era". Please make yourself clear

<skipped>

You just say in more detail what I didn't say in my opening post... Still don't see where my description is wrong. Or do you just think that adding more detail to someone's description makes the short version somewhat incorrect or even outright wrong?
23745  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 05:50:37 PM
But you just said there would be inflation and the inflation would be higher than the interest.  I would simply keep my real Bitcoins and while the nominal number won't change the purchasing power of it will.   Your system assumes everyone is stupid and opt for inflationary non-Bitcoin tokens instead of the "real thing".  Even if people temporarily did that, the scenario requires them to be stupid over an extended period of time. They would need to see that year in and year out they have a decline in real purchasing power and continue to not act by taking the very easy step of taking their coins out of the bank.

Inflation would only be in some "moneys" and you never knew in advance which bank would cheat... This is not my system, I just describe what actually happened back then and show the origin of the term. Is this really so hard to understand?

And I have already seen ads which promise to pay interest in BTC for investing some bitcoins...
23746  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 05:29:49 PM
Or you could just keep your gold and were immune to the inflationary effect.  Of course paying with gold was difficult, keeping your gold safe was also difficult.  Bitcoin however makes paying direct with Bitcoin easy.  There is no need to put you Bitcoins in some bank which will issue fiat currency using it as a reserve.  Of course you are free to CHOOSE to do so but others are free to not.  If these fiat issued currencies end up inflationary well it will make people less likely to choose that option.

You're right, but in that case you would be losing interest which you could potentially earn by depositing your gold in the bank. The same holds true for Bitcoin... Nothing important has actually changed since those times, greed is still here!!!
23747  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 04:57:14 PM
But if you borrow BTC from a bank to make a purchase, the seller will expect to receive the actual BTC, not a BTC bank credit. So the scope for FRB is far more limited.

You won't borrow BTC from a bank, the bank will issue a credit card with which you will pay for your purchases. Whether this bank (or any other bank for that matter) actually has all the BTCs it has credited you with is another question... So, unless there is a Central Bank which has set the economy on a Bitcoin standard (with all ensuing dramatic consequences), banks will still be able to create more money (virtual BTCs) than there are bitcoins out there...

If you agree with this, then the fixed supply nature of Bitcoin becomes unnecessary and detrimental here
23748  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 04:36:19 PM
It seems that you struggle to understand what decentralized means.
If a bank, an institute, an organization, a country of even me issue money then that's not a decentralized economy. Bitcoins are issued by themself. There is absolutely noone issuing them. If you can't see how revolutionary is that then i guess it can't be helped anyway.

If nobody mines bitcoins, there will be none, period. I'm not going to get into a petty argument about what decentralization means (actually you're catching at every possibility to confuse issues). Decentralization, whatever you may next mean by it, won't make  Bitcoin any better, since it doesn't prevent its accumulation. Go and see its present distribution between owners...

23749  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 04:20:46 PM
Gresham's law happens when you have currencies of different value, but some idiot is accepting them both at the same value.  (or some idiot nation is demanding via law that *everybody* be such an idiot).

It naturally happens that the idiots then wind up with the currency that has the lesser value, whilst all of the higher-valued currency goes elsewhere, where non-idiots will give you more stuff for it.  So 'bad money drives out good' refers to a nation that demands that (say) a debased coin with half the silver content be considered 'the same' as an earlier coin that was substantially more silver.  If people can get more stuff for the silver money outside of that country than they can for the debased coin, then all of the silver money is 'driven out' of the country.

Thanks for your explanation of what Gresham's law is about, but I still see no reason why Gresham's law won't be working if free flow of national and crypto currencies is allowed. If a national currency inflates (something that you would expect from a fiat currency, say, dollar) while an alternative currency deflates (such as Bitcoin) then this will be an obvious case to apply Gresham's law principle here, i.e. deflating currency (Bitcoin) will be stashed away whereas inflating currency (dollar) will be used in exchange whenever possible...

And you didn't explain what was wrong with my logic regarding "free banking era". Please make yourself clear
23750  Other / Meta / Re: Forum ranks/positions (What do those shiny coins under my name mean?) on: November 29, 2013, 04:01:14 PM
Could someone explain me what the time limits for posting for various ranks are? I can't seem to find this info anywhere...for example my current limit is 360 sec,...thanks in advance for any answers!

The next limit will be, if I'm not mistaken, 90 seconds...
23751  Local / Новости / Re: Хакер опроверг связь между Сатоши и Silk Road on: November 29, 2013, 03:39:34 PM
Спасибо. Просто удивляюсь, как люди пишут подобные статьи, и не удосуживаются привести адрес, о котором как бы и идёт речь.

На здоровье!

Хотя если подойти к этому вопросу беспристрастно, то стоит отметить, что непосредственно в опровержении того самого хакера из Техаса биткоин адрес указан не полностью (только первые несколько цифр)...
23752  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 03:02:14 PM
One problem with the OP's logic is that during the 'free banking era' many different banks were issuing 'dollars' that in theory were supposed to trade equally.  But due to some banks being more sound than others, some notes were manifestly worth more than face value and some manifestly less.  Theory and practice differed according to Gresham's law, leading eventually to the dissolution of that system as a non-working mistake.

If national and privately-issued (crypto-) currencies are allowed to float freely against each other, then Gresham's law does not apply.

I didn't understand what's wrong with my logic about "free banking era" (actually, I just described what was happening back then), but could you provide cogent reasons as to why Gresham's law won't be applicable if national and privately-issued currencies were allowed to float freely against each other?
23753  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 02:57:21 PM
This logic is infallible in itself and you can always turn to history for examples proving your position as a last resort. But the question is still there. Is it really worth doing the same mistakes all over again?

How about you come up with something perfect,  GOD!?

Surely, you're confusing me with somebody else. Somebody who has been told not to write his shit here... Cheesy
Nothing is perfect, but at least we could try not to make the same mistakes (even this would be a huge step ahead)!
23754  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 02:45:03 PM
So by decentrilization you mean different banks issuing money. I guess we are still in a decentralized economy then since different nations / organizations / banks are still issuing money. Guess what. No.

You could "issue" your own IOUs which would constitute your own "decentralized" currency. As I have earlier said in one of my posts somewhere around here, in medieval times you could bring an ingot of gold to the mint and have official coins minted from it, so there is nothing new in "decentralization", which you apparently promote as one of the virtues of Bitcoin...

In any case, decentralization will be of little, if any, help for Bitcoin. Gold was "decentralized" too, so no difference here...
23755  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 02:33:19 PM
Bitcoins are not heavy at all
Bitcoins are easy to transfer (much faster and easier than most currencies, especially if you consider international trades, not to mention cheaper as well)
Bitcoins can not be tampered with
Bitcoins are inflation resistant.

So, moving from bitcoin to paper bitcoins makes not much sense at all, moving from bitcoin to a banking scam is even more unlikely.

What you suggest is setting a new Bitcoin standard. It will inevitably fail for just the same reasons the gold standard had failed...
23756  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 02:30:47 PM
Also the reason people stepped away from gold as a currency was several reasons, including but not limited to:

1) gold is heavy.
2) goold coins where often scraped and molten to more gold, making the gold coin lighter than it should be, but careless people often accepted to coin for it's full value, this was later slowed down by adding markings on the sides of coins, so it's easier to see a coin has been tampered with.
3) it was easier and safer to leave your gold at the goldsmith/banker and pass the 'proof of deposit' around than it was to retrieve the gold from the goldsmith/banker, give the gold to the merchant, an do have the merchant put it back at the bank.

Yes, those were the reasons why the gold standard was established. In this monetary system government guarantees a fixed exchange rate to the currency and authorities agree to sell you some gold on demand at a fixed price in exchange for currency. Adherence to gold standard provoked a train of economic crises and depressions culminating in the Great Depression (and war in Europe), which led to its abandoning in the end...
23757  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 02:04:40 PM
You clearly don't understand that 21 million bitcoins does not limit transactions at all.

Let's say it's the year 2300 and there's only 1 bitcoin left in the whole world. (All others have been lost due to wallets being lost etc.) this bitcoin would be worth 1 quadrillion dollars. A pizza would cost $500 due to inflation.

You could buy that pizza with 0.0000000000005 bitcoins

The issue I raised is not about limited transactions, and it is not about arithmetics either...
23758  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 01:58:02 PM
Perhaps I should make my argument more clear.  The implied assumption is that the evolution will go:

Bitcoins -> paper Bitcoins -> central bank

I'm saying it's much more likely to be:

Bitcoins -> paper Bitcoins -> Bitcoins

Actually, what you say should be written as following:

Bitcoins -> paper Bitcoins by all banks (causes inflation and bank-runs) -> paper Bitcoins by Central Bank (establishment of gold Bitcoin standard)

And after that we begin running into ever deepening economic crises which finally bring about dismantling of the Bitcoin standard (see the Great Depression), so the last step will be:

paper Bitcoins by Central Bank (causes deflation and incessant economic crises) -> fiat by Central Bank (Bitcoin standard dismantled)
23759  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 01:37:25 PM
Sorry but I don't see how you prove that Bitcoin is going to fail.

What do you mean by fail ?

That it won't take the place of fiat currencies or become an asset backing them up. This option is closed for Bitcoin, though it may actually turn open for gold if there's some global catastrophe that would throw us into anarchy...
23760  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin is ultimately doomed to fail (not today or tomorrow) on: November 29, 2013, 01:20:55 PM
Anyone who uses "paper" Bitcoins deserves to absorb the risk of loss that obviously implies.

Gold was a pretty crappy currency.  There was at least some argument to be made that paper was more convenient to use.  The same can't be said of Bitcoin.

Yes, that's why the right to issue money had been eventually monopolized by just one bank, usually referred to as Central Bank...
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