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241  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is unfair to the non tech-savvy on: July 12, 2014, 06:34:06 PM
You've got two people in the BTC world. The ones who are just pissed because they weren't an early adopter and the ones who are scared to dip their toes into Bitcoin.

You can't fix the first one but you can make BTC easier to work with by educating people instead of laughing them away. Having a BTC wallet is the same as a physical wallet (obviously with the exception of it being digital), you need to apply your own security practices that you would in real life. I see a lot of people complain about loosing their funds and eventually you find out it was because of their own error, IE uploading an unencrypted wallet file to Dropbox and then having their Dropbox account compromised.

Or making a photo of your paper wallet and uploading it to the internet for everyone to see Cheesy
These are all examples of things that non tech-savvy people would likely do
242  Economy / Speculation / Re: The catalyst that will drive BTC over $1000 on: July 12, 2014, 06:32:31 PM
While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect.  Undecided

Yup...seriously doubt the Winklevoss ETF will result in significantly higher BTC prices given how fat a stack the twins are sitting on presently.  Perhaps another year or two down the road it will have some impact but these guys are bitcoin-fatty fat right now and can self-fund their own ETF for sometime to come in my opinion.
I would argue that the ETF will give bitcoin some level of legitimacy and should generate additional interest for bitcoin by investors.
243  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Difference between PPLNS and PPS? on: July 12, 2014, 05:38:34 PM
Also, if someone in the pool finds the reward will everyone get a one time bonus?
No.

With PPS, you simply earn a fixed amount based on how many shares you submit to the pool (how much work you submit to the pool. You will generally pay the highest pool fee for this payment method because the risk to the pool is high.

With PPLnS, every "n" shares submitted to the pool by all the miners at the pool, a shift will be complete. Block rewards will be distributed evenly to the last "x" (usually 10) shifts. Many pools offer 0% pool fees with this method, and this is a generally a low variance method, however it does have a higher variance then PPS.

Over the long run, if the pool is big enough, you should expect to earn the same amount. If the pool is too small then variance early on could affect long term results if the difficulty is increasing quickly.
244  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What happened to the 184 Billion Bitcoins created in Aug 2010? on: July 12, 2014, 05:29:57 PM
what if people kept exploating this but didn't make such noticable amounts?

in form of a couple of bitcoins daily

The bug was fixed, so it's not possible anymore.

Thanks for the links, I am studying it now. {Well spotted} I missed it somehow.

what if a new bug was discovered
but we never found out because it's being abused in small amounts?
The amount of people watching the bitcoin space at the moment I highly doubt even that's possible.
If it was done in small amounts then it likely could get through the cracks. What is preventing this is the fact that there are a number of devs and "whitehat hackers" who are looking for these kinds of vulnerabilities.
245  Other / Politics & Society / Re: So.. Chase shutdown my College Checking account on: July 12, 2014, 05:23:59 PM
Personal account isn't suppose to be used for business purpose.

AHH the exact reason everyone here hates the banks.

Now now now let me tell you debt slave how you can spend your money.  This is a PERSONAL account you slave bastard how dare you attempt to do something else with it.  We will treat you like a pos because you are one now bow to me and I'll consider give you your money back.
Personal accounts have different risks then business accounts do and are priced accordingly. If you needed a bank account to do business then you could simply open a business bank account, let the bank do it's due diligence and do business out of the business account.
246  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US ‘kidnaps’ Russian MP’s son to ‘exchange him for Snowden’ on: July 12, 2014, 05:20:29 PM
US ‘kidnaps’ Russian MP’s son to ‘exchange him for Snowden’
http://rt.com/news/171188-russian-hacker-kidnapped-america/

Quote
The US “kidnapped” the son of a Russian MP, possibly to exchange him for Edward Snowden, the father charged. The man was indicted with computer-related crimes by a Washington DC court and snatched from the Maldives.

Roman Seleznyov was detained on Saturday at Male international airport as he was returning to Russia, the Russian foreign ministry said on Tuesday in a statement. He was forced by agents of the US Secret Service to board a private plane to Guam to be later arrested, a move which the ministry called “a de-facto kidnapping.”

Man the Americans think up the weirdest stuff I'll kidnap this guy and ask for a ransom
What ever happened to we don't deal with terrorists but we will use their playbook when it is convenient to us.
I call BS on this story. This is something that the likes of CNN would have reported on by now if it was true.
247  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Death Toll Climbs As Israel Bombards Gaza on: July 12, 2014, 05:18:45 PM
This article sounds like what Israel is doing is a bad thing. If this were any other country who was fighting back against the rockets that have been launched at them for over a week now. We would be cheering them on. But because it's Israel this is a bad thing? Maybe I'm reading this wrong. But that is what it sounds like to me
you are reading it wrong because it didn't start with hamas firing rockets

israel killed palestinian civilians and bulldozed houses in the search for suspects in murder case of the 3 settlers (not murdered by hamas), only then did hamas respond with rockets
The palistines are keeping their army mixed in with civilians forcing collateral damage when Israel tries to defend itself.
248  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: CEX.io GHS Bubble ? on: July 12, 2014, 05:15:31 PM
Still it does not make sense. GHS/BTC price should theoretically follow the difficulty increase. So for 25% diff increase the price should have decreased by 25%, i.e. from 0.0075 to somewhere around 0.0052.. Even though it dropped to 0.006 for a minute, it is now around 0.0067 which is less that 10% drop.
This means the market is extremely optimistic about the ROI of their investment..
It is slightly more complicated then that because of NPV. If you still have the option of selling your GHs at any time then the value will be increased even though the stream of revenue has decreased.
249  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Reasons Mining Will NEVER Be Profitable on: July 12, 2014, 05:12:45 PM
mmmm, so how do we create a coin that the asic manufacturers can't muscle in on the little guy at home mining a few coins.            RandomCoin,    a coin that simply generates coins at Random maybe.

What about a coin, or Bitcoin protocol variation that looks at the network and says, because of the current difficulty, I'm only going to give you a 0.0001% chance of generating a Block.
That way, no matter how powerful your mining equipment, you have the same odds as someone CPU mining at home.

This would not work because someone could simply dev an ASIC that "pretends" to be many different people thus increasing their odds of finding a block
250  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: I am happy that The Polar Vortex Is Coming Back Next Week on: July 12, 2014, 04:44:33 PM
While next week’s mid-summer cold snap won’t send you rushing for the nearest space heater, its origins are similar to the cold snaps that defined the brutal winter just past.
This would not make as big of a difference as it did last winter as miners then could provide a supplement to your heater, but today it would not be necessary to be heating your home, it would just be a little/lot cooler then normal. 
251  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Bitcoin difficulty may actually go down in ~7 days! on: July 12, 2014, 04:42:33 PM
Looks like we are going to have a low single digit increase this time. Smiley

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 16,818,461,371
Estimated Next Difficulty: 17,690,934,100 (+5.19%)
Adjust time: After 412 Blocks, About 2.7 days

https://blockr.io/
Next difficulty (estimate)
17,015,651,269.97
1.17% change to current
412 blocks until difficulty changes
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is showing a ~3.2% increase now.

It appears that the rate that difficult is increasing is slowing down, but isn't quite coming to a halt yet.
252  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ross Ulbricht 140k bitcoins on: July 12, 2014, 04:33:46 PM
Most likely crashes even harder as the market depth can not support close to 80M usd worth of bitcoin.
Not entirely sure the US Marshalls will be auctioning off all 140K bitcoins at once.  More than likely I suspect they will release them in batches over time.  At least if they are smart they will.

But yeah, obviously bitcoin could go down (a bit) right after the sale of these coins whether in batches or not (moreso if in a single batch)...but as bitcoin has shown us time and time again she will once again rise from the ashes barring some cataclysmic event.  Truthfully I'm more worried about fuck-tards like Isis now asking people to donate to their brutal cause in bitcoin/darkcoin than I am the 140K bitcoins the Marshall's are holding.  All it will take is one serious terrorist episode taking place on US soil that can somehow be proven to have been funded either partially or in full with bitcoin or some crypto and I believe they would subsequently launch a concerted effort to crush confidence in it.
Regardless, one participant did purchase all ~30k coins in the most recent auction without any major disruption to the market. The price did fall prior to the auction, however this was driven by speculators.
253  Economy / Speculation / Re: Winklevoss ETF will list on NASDAQ as "COIN" on: July 12, 2014, 04:29:42 PM
If more btc has to be bought or sold to balance out when does it happen?  In real time during the trading day?  End of trading day?  Or just when the winks feel they need to buy or sell a bunch?

The fund does nothing. Certain big players are allowed to either add buckets of Bitcoin to the fund in exchange for shares or redeem shares in exchange for Bitcoins. Whenever the price of the fund doesn't match the price of Bitcoin in the overall market this will be an opportunity for arbitrage for these players. We let the free market do the  rest and presto, the price will follow the market price with a very narrow error margin.

Ok, thats basically like another exchange and every buy in the ETF equals a buy on a regular exchange.

No it doesn't. The shares are traded and can go up in value. If the value of a share is larger than the value of 0.2 BTC and there is sufficient liquidity a market maker will arbitrage, buy a number of Bitcoins (with the number as defined basket size in the filing) send these to the fund and will in exchange get new shares. Subsequently it can sell these shares on the open market making money (remember the shares were trading above the value for Bitcoin on the open market).

1 share in the fund will always represent 0.2 BTC (unless they do a share split) and if more Bitcoin are deposited into the fund more shares will be given out (without diluting shareholders!). Reversely, a market maker can also buy shares in COIN and subsequently redeem these in exchange for the underlying Bitcoins (also per basket). It will do so when the market price of COIN is below that of Bitcoin (and subsequently they can sell the received Bitcoins on the open market to complete the arbitrage cycle).
It would be more accurate to say that every time someone buys 5 shares of COIN then it would be the same as someone buying one BTC on an exchange.

If the price of COIN was above 1/5 the price of BTC then people would buy BTC on the exchanges in anticipation of APs buying bitcoin with the intention of redeeming it for COIN and selling the COIN on the market.
254  Economy / Speculation / Re: The catalyst that will drive BTC over $1000 on: July 12, 2014, 04:26:08 PM
While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect.  Undecided

The ETF may already have their coins, but if the price of the ETF rises above the market price of bitcoin then people (AP) will buy bitcoin on exchanges, so they can exchange their bitcoin for shares of COIN and sell the ETF on the market.
255  Economy / Speculation / Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well on: July 12, 2014, 04:17:27 PM
you can´t compare the current Bitcoin with Bitcoin when it started  Grin

Today there are millions of venture capital coming into the BTC world, many exchanges etc.
Everything has matured and the big volatility with several market crashes won´t return in my opinion.

The issue is not bitcoin price crashes.

Several posters have pointed out the order book on Bitfinex is quite thin compare to the number of active swap they have.
The present size of an order book is not 100% of an issue as when volatility increases, the amount of volume traded will also increase, making it possible to liquidate positions. If it came down to it, they could also freeze trading and close positions on other, more liquid exchanges. 
256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Be *very* careful on: July 12, 2014, 04:13:48 PM
Be greedy when everyone is fearful. Be a bear when everyone is a bull.

You are the first one to discover that Cheesy Seriously, normally that might be the case but now this forum doesn't mean anything because lots of fresh fiat is coming to bitcoin ecosystem.
I don't think these forums are a very good indicator of overall market sentiment. These forums generally always are bullish even when the price of bitcoin is falling/crashing. 
257  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is unfair to the non tech-savvy on: July 12, 2014, 04:11:38 PM
I don't think that BTC is unfair towards the non tech--savvy. The non tech savvy can just understand the economic concept and the concept of how BTC is a currency. Rather than understanding the Blockchain and the Algorithms behind it.

Exactly, IMHO those who see the long term potential of bitcoin generally do so more due to understanding of economics and how governments manipulate money than due to mathematical savvy.

People who see and question the government intervention and corruption tend to latch on to bitcoin in my experience. Those who don't will one day just complain when btc reaches the moon.
People who are non tech savvy are much more susceptible to attacks that are related to stealing of their bitcoin, as they would likely be unable to properly secure their coin.
258  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Prediction. $4000-$6500 by August/September 2014. on: July 12, 2014, 04:08:33 PM
You do know what those excess reserves mean right? If they pull them out and start lending, which is ironically what is likely to happen if interest rates go UP without the bribe rate (the interest rate on excess reserves) going up, an extra $26 Trillion can work its way into the M2. That would constitute an increase greater than 200%. Thats one really wound up spring ready to snap back.

In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."
Are you talking about the excess reserves that banks hold at the US Fed or something else?  The latest data puts those reserves at around $2.6T, not $26T.  That's still a lot, obviously, but only about 20% of M2 instead of 200%. Wink

See the Federal Reserve site for the latest data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/

2.6T USD of excess reserves can generate an increase of 26T USD in M2 because the reserve requirement is at most 10%. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm. For each dollar the Federal Reserve prints the banks can print an additional nine dollars because of fractional reserve banking.
This is technically true, however in order for this to materialize there needs to be demand for such loans, which there is not.
259  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Observer Effect (over $1000 by 16-30 June) on: July 12, 2014, 04:06:52 PM
July 14th and still $630  Cry Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months  Angry  Grin

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble.  Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix?  I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

I would say that $200MM invested in a new bitcoin investment fund would be more then what would likely go into such a fund. I would argue that more money would be poured into VC that would invest in bitcoin related businesses.

I do think that the ETF will likely push the price of bitcoin higher.
260  Economy / Economics / Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios on: July 12, 2014, 04:01:24 PM
"You can only save from money taken from your household earnings (you won't save from loans), that is money which you would otherwise spend on consumption. Please try to explain how this can be any good for the economy in the long"

How can it not be good? Where do you think your consumption comes from, if not someone has produced them? How can you get it, without producing something of comparable value and trade? The savings in money and investments from prudent producers is the root of increased productivity, that benefits all.

Sorry, but I don't understand how what you say is related to what I am talking about. Yes, someone has produced what I consume, so if I decide not to consume (but prefer to save instead), there is overproduction (as simple as that). We are not talking here about producers' investments.


There can never be overproduction in the free market. When one individual produces, sells his product and saves money, prices will decrease and others will be able to buy more. Saving is letting others in front of you in the consumption queue.


Overproduction and under supply can happen in free market.

Planning and mis-allocating capital can go horrible wrong even in the total decentralized system.
Over production happens when more is produced then what can reasonably be consumed. A merchant can only sell so many products before there is no demand for the product anymore and merchants often have a time limit to how soon something much sell either because of seasons or because a specific product will "go bad" after a certain time

When supply strengthens, and demand softens, the profits of that specific market is eroded, and the capital is taken to a more profitable market space. There is no overproduction. Temporalily, prices can go lower than the producers are happy with, but that is also a temporary advantage for people just on the edge of purchasing that exact stuff. Conversely with the absurd notation of under-supply.

On the other hand in a nonfree market, that is someone disturbs the free market using the threat of physical force in violation of human rights, meaning government, prices and volume is always suboptimal. Compared to what consumers and producers want, which is the only important thing. Some random person, voter or not, is not entitled to push his values on to others.
Companies are not always able to react to the market this quickly as it takes time to build new factories, to train workers to do new processes in order to make different products. Companies also need to have work in progress so they would be forced to continue building some product even after demand falls a lot because they would finish the work they have started. It is also natural to have ebbs and flows in demand so a company may think that a decline in demand is just a natural ebb in demand.
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