Keep in mind that once everyone is bullish, that means there are no more buyers.

I am loathe to agree on this point.  Surely they would recognize that in the long run, dampening volatility would only make xmr a more attractive long-term hold... I admit that it often appears as though this, or something like it, is true.  But if so, I can happily take comfort in the longer term blowback effects.  The market has a way of taking revenge.  And it doesn't really matter to me whether we get to 100 next week or next year. 

Happy to learn of your advancing prospects, but I would make the case that the speculation thread is at least somewhat better suited.

Myself, I regard volatility as an opportunity, rather than a risk.

Give the duck some respect: he will look you straight in the eye and tell you he's lying.  That deserves a modicum.

In xmr, FOMO is never irrational, just (at worst) premature.

So, what is your record on such announcements, and does it correlate with font size and/or color?

https://lab.getmonero.org provides the facts in excruciating detail.  If you can propagate the facts back up the rumor chain, it would help everyone involved to avoid misinformation.  

It also suggests to me that I should move my cold storage to a new wallet once every year or two - which is probably a good idea in any case, due to software evolution in general.

I don't recall the percentages, but some proportion of transactions before 2016 are potentially linkable with asymptotic probability.  This is a notion of compromise which is unlike the notion of a compromised transaction in, e.g. Bitcoin, where, by this standard ~100% of all transactions are "compromised".  Transactions on the monero blockchain today are not subject to a similar linking analysis.

You can read all about it on the Monero Labs page:

https://lab.getmonero.org

Greek tax  authorities are planning on opening safe deposit boxes looking for taxable assets.  

http://www.ekathimerini.com/218576/article/ekathimerini/business/tax-authorities-to-chase-undeclared-properties

Somehow I doubt that they will neglect to check the blockchain for Bitcoin assets.

Also, this idea that somehow crypto is inherently more vulnerable than bank accounts simply has to die:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN18I0VE

I would be interested to know what features suffice to motivate your interest in others.

I think you just articulated the very definition of a good investment.


I don't feel like I am missing out, because when xmrbtc is declining, I buy xmr, and when xmrbtc is rising, I sell xmr.  Not with the majority of my xmr, but with about 2% of it, lately.  The result has been that each time xmr hits a new ATH, my MtM net worth outperforms anything else I have seen running over 3 years.  Including eth.  Key is to have a discipline: Don't sell into a falling market, or buy into a rising one.


The south sea company was worth more than global GDP.  To day that would mean $50 trillion.  It was the first and largest ponzi, with backing of parliament and king.

Tulips had negligible moneyness. Monero has perfected moneyness.  The value proposition of Monero plausibly runs into the trillions, unlike tulips or ponzi shares.  I did not say "probably".  I said "plausibly".  If you are not accounting for that possibility, you are not deciding rationally.

The discovery of an exploitable spurious issuance or double-spend attack.  It happened once it bitcoin, a few years back.  Now it has happened once in the cryptonote universe, including Monero.  The discovery of such an exploit by talented but unscrupulous persons could have destroyed most of the value in Bitcoin, in the first instance, or that of Monero in the second.  In both cases I think the discovery has reduced, rather than increased the likelihood of such a future event, but it does highlight the possibility, and it would be good to have a principled argument for a numerical approximate probability, for rational decision-making.

I think you completely omit the crucial importance of ownership privacy.  With out it, your loved ones are in constant danger of kidnapping, powerful and ruthless people can target you for milking, and you are disadvantaged in every negotiation.

It's always nice to find points of agreement.


That is an excellent question, albeit complex to model.  I shall try to develop a model for this, since it is, I think, a very useful technique to develop.  The most closely analogous defect in Bitcoin was a singular event.  That analogy can be used as a prior.


I claim XMR is much less risky than Bitcoin. Bitcoin governance and political risk is many times higher.

I urge people to hold at least 10% of their assets in diversified high quality crypto, primarily xmr and btc, in that order.  The upside potential of XMR is more than 60x the upside potential of BTC.  But for high net worth individuals I think the value of the opaque chain is much higher, as a store of value, modulo the volatility issue. In the long run, wealthy people should hold a majority of their liquidity in Monero. A provably correct implementation would facilitate that.

It is the very lack of marketing and scammery that make it a good risk/value proposition, even at (especially at) all-time-highs.  I think it is irresponsible, and proof of bad faith, to market a product which is unfit for purpose.  Of course that disqualifies most of the larger cap cryptographic tokens.  (Bitcoin gets a pass because it was 99.44% pure viral contagion.)

Scammery, puffery, outright fraud, all can be quite profitable in their salad days, but they never age well - as does a Barolo from a good vintage year. When it is mature, Monero may merit some PR effort, but until then it is much healthier for the public to be introduced gradually, as their use-cases warrant.

The quality of the design and implementation of the critical core function of liquidity storage and transmission is where Monero truly shines.  While the implementation still needs polishing and on-going review - which can never truly end, in any case - I consider it to be adequate, such that I can recommend Monero to friends and family, so long as their use case is tolerant of the volatility inherent in such a new asset. 

I did not think so 18 months ago. Then  I was willing to hold it and advocate it to cryptocurrency users and finance sophisticates, but not to "normals".  Even now usability factors prevent me from recommending it for general transactional use by the technically naive, although buy-and-hold investing I can and do recommend - a double-digit percentage in crypto, with Monero at the top of the risk/reward table.

Looking forward:  A better Android experience would make it competitive as walking-around money. Intrinsic multisig - as opposed to a multisig wrapper - and a 1.0 gui would make it a robust competitor for the role of global digital currency in a post- central banking future. (My own pet speculation is that counterparty failure chains in the imminent deflationary/hyperinflationary cycle will spell the end of Nixon's experimental debt-based monetary system, in the principal developed economies.)

I must say, I greatly underestimated the practical and market value of RingCT.  I had not fully appreciated how leaky the boat was before RingCT, but I certainly do appreciate how sea-worthy it is today.

Rather than postulating a manipulation with supernatural skill, my supposition would be an impatient entry by a new Monerist, followed by an opportunistic exit as soon as the deposit xns could occur (Risto?).  We remain with a surplus of demand, and the parabola seems.... Inevitable.

Being distracted by fad crypto can only dissipate my focus, and consequently dilute my expectations. What will I be able to keep through the troubles ahead?  What will retain value despite deflation, inflation, repression, taxation, extortion, fraud, bubbles, bail-ins and capital controls?  What is the most perfect money yet devised?  

I would much rather walk away from the quick buck than end up like, e.g. TrueCryptonaire, who will probably never have a fraction of the Monero he could have had simply by holding and waiting.  How many people rue the day they decided to time the Bitcoin market?  Where now, AmericanPegasus?

Let the players play.  Let them have their tulips, their south sea companies, and their postal reply coupons.  Greed caused even Isaac Newton to squander a fortune on such a scheme.  I prefer the calculus of rational expectations and sound fundamental laws.

I tried that road, and did not like where it was taking me. I have not yet seen anyone go that way and come back without looking much uglier, and smelling much worse.

I advise: It is a good idea to buy some Monero, in constant numeraire amounts, on a regular and consistent basis, if you can afford to hold them for years, or if you may need to use them, to keep your financial affairs private.  It is a bad idea to speculate on timing of price moves unless you have special information.  (Note that competing speculators in a speculation forum have an interest in disinforming you.)  That said, we are here specifically to speculate, and some people will offer opinions.  The honesty and the accuracy of those opinions may or may not correlate with each other.

Regarding price, I don't give much weight to speculations about coinbase.  Demand is gradually growing, AFAICT, while supply growth is slowly declining, so prospects seem good, but without a catalyst movement is likely to be weak and take a while.  Meanwhile it can do almost anything since the cap and float is still smallish.

If you anticipate a strong demand for financial privacy in a globally liquid instrument, as I do, you probably want to own as much as you can, up to the limits of your risk tolerance.  You should also keep an eye on mimblewimble.

Lots of Monero on offer, just not at prices low enough to motivate aggressive buying.    I don't know of any likely catalysts forthcoming. My guess is that the dollar price will be stagnant for a while.  Currency use should keep a light but steady bid in the market.

The three things that strike me as most likely to move this market:  Rotation out of the scam coins that have dominated the top of the cap charts lately, new size buyers from outside crypto, and some sort of confidence attack.  The more likely scenario is slow organic growth during the summer, with much less drama, and only gradual price appreciation.  In that scenario I would target $30 in September, and we might not see a new ATH until macro instability later in the year stomps on the fuel pedal again.

Since my FOMO levels are quite low, most of my orders are placed low-ish, in hope of the occasional speculator dump during the slow period.

I am buying now.  $25 is the new cheap.  Any luck and it might drop to 24.