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Reason for drop in your view traderCJ?
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several hundred billion is still good!  |
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chessnut, please elaborate on "implications too severe." Thanks.  There are only a few hundred trillion dollars in the world... many other large markets take share of this market cap and it's is very competitive. also, there can only be so many millionaires made by bitcoin before it loses it's meaning. -So maybe you got me there, but what I mean is that the market cannot remain denominated in USD while bitcoin has a market cap of several trillion. The implications of a larger market cap are very severe, but by then you couldn't measure it in dollars. Okay. I think I get your point. You are saying that Bitcoin cannot be a perpetual millionaire minting factory as the global economy is a fixed size? As Bitcoin's economy expands, the USD and other currencies will lose market share of the global economy. That makes sense. Thanks for explaining. I think it will happen anyway, bitcoin or some other crypto. I don't think the global economy will shrink due to Bitcoin. It's possible for the Bitcoin economy to increase the size of the global economy via efficiency gains, productivity, job creation etc... However, in dollar terms, I can definitely see economic contraction. I know many here are betting on inflation but I suspect deflation will hit first. Inflation might follow later as a consequence of central bank responses. However, the next money printing adventure might just end in stagflation and political turmoil. Overall, I expect Bitcoin's economic growth rate to overcome the USD's deflationary forces caused by QE taper. |
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chessnut, please elaborate on "implications too severe." Thanks. |
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When max block is 1MB and pools are using less than 200kB and in Discus Fish's case 48kB, this is something that doesn't need to happen, I'm guessing, as I'm no tech wizard unlike you.
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But it's not equal and bitcoin's transactions have slowed considerably.  |
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Note: the equivalent Ltc transfer took less than 4 minutes. (I know it's meant to be faster, but still...)
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I don't disagree and I'm still super bullish bitcoin, but I think discus fish pool are doing block sizes of 48 kB. Would be good if someone did something clever about that. |
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^^^^^^ [& thanks for not using that over used Picard WTF meme] Well too each his own. For myself, I started with X bitcoins. I added 1.25X bitcoins through mining, and then about 1.25X bitcoins through trading. And than I lost about 75% of my bitcoins through scams, failed group buys, and mostly one really bad investment (riding asicminer stock down from 4 btc to .8 btc). So that's why I AM HODLING. To each his own. I think for us bitcoin-heads here in this forum, hodling isn't such a bad idea -- we are the minority (I presume ?). I think the majority of new money (that drives the btc economy) is coming from new people entering who are not hodling, so there is still enough new-bucks money to keep the bitcoin economy improving, which is the most important thing. I can't say I'm sure though. These are my current guesses. The more people holding the more stable the price is, so I don't see that as a negative. It is only negative when so many folks are hodling that the economy doesn't have enough gas in the tank to run, but that is not happening IMHO. AM is a steal now... gen 3 soon. AM is Chinese company, it's a big risk these any day s to invest in Chinese any Bitcoin company. FTFY Edit: Only AM shares have done really well to my knowledge. |
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I just tried to send BTC6.5 with a 0.0001 fee (per software recommendation) and it took 2.5 hours! Yes, this issue is impacting users like me now.
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OMFG !! They're gonna launch a coin !  How do you know this? Is this FUD? My humour detector is not very good. |
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I see the difference between him and you as follows: he understood the market dynamics and made a wise (and bloody lucky) decision to hodl. You kept trading and wasted your opportunity because you didn't see what he saw. So, what's the lesson we can all learn from this? Understand the long term market dynamics. AFAIK, he is still keeping Btcs. The bitcoin market is still very early stage. See www.bitcoinpulse.com. The only thing worse than missing the first boat is missing the second. |
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That's ok. I know someone who did the opposite of you. He didn't have $20k but borrowed it. He bought 5000 coins and he is headed for a year long travel/holiday/work trip. I know who I'd rather be in one year's time. Bitter and twisted, wishing for markets to drop or busily building bitcoin businesses and enjoying life?  . You decide. |
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But you don't have 10k, and there is a reason why that is. Sorry to be blunt but one cannot know what happens tomorrow, let alone a week. |
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There right there, the stop loss, proves you are not sure! |
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Plus I know from past interactions you mentioned your circumstance and the fact that you are a trader, so overall I can see you are keen for the market to move in the direction you want it to move. However, please note that no one here, individually, really has the money to move the Btc markets anymore. The big guys will do what the big guys want to do. The small guys will be influenced but won't make a difference.
PS: don't use the word sure at all. No one can be sure. By using the word sure, you are flagging to everyone you are, essentially, unreliable.
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I think one of the reasons people have a negative reaction to you, mat the cat, is your tendency to say "it must surely go down from here". What makes you so sure? Do you have confirmed sources?
So, I tend to ignore that and assume you are desperately trying to manipulate the price down so you can buy cheap coins. This just makes you come off looking desperate and not credible, in my eyes, even if you have something valuable to add.
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I'm not confident at all. I acknowledge I'm speculating with limited info. Thanks for your thoughts though. I also think it might fall. Roughly one day's worth of mined coins is enough to drop the market 2.5%. On the other hand, the BIT is buying up coins. Overall, I would still say the tendency is for people to hoard rather than dump. The merchant expansion and motivation to "encourage" merchants is having more of a short term impact for now. But I think people will go back to hoarding soon once the novelty of online retailers cools somewhat. Afterall, how many bed sheets do I really need?
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New "floor" seems to be $780. Around 4000 coins dropped to achieve that. So around $3.6 mill to move a $10 billion market down, or 0.036% of market cap. Most people appear to be hodling. Big players have very much outsized impact. I am somewhat comforted knowing they have millions invested in the success of bitcoin. Could be why andreesen didn't buy more than a single coin.
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I agree with billyjoeallen. But I remain concerned about the capacity of central planners to keep printing, as political forces are kicking back from enrichment of the 1%. I see that in the US, Europe and China. I don't doubt yellen is an instinctive printer, I just don't know how much political space she has to follow ben's path.
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