Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

Can Sanders make another surprise by defeating Hillary in Kentucky?

‘She's on a course to win the Democratic nomination, but still piling up losses,’ was one of the comments about last night’s West Virginia Democratic primary. Bernie Sanders won it with 51% to Hillary’s 36%, though it doesn’t matter a lot in delegate tracker that Hillary leads with 2,239 to 1,469 (with 2,383 delegates needed for nomination).

But, these results do matter to Hillary as she is already starting her campaign against Donald Trump, so the next Tuesday will be important as well. It is time for closed primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. Sanders is favorite in Oregon but it will be especially interesting to see can he defeat Hillary in Kentucky as well.

Few months ago, Kentucky primaries looked like a sure win for Clinton but suddenly she had to start investing in Kentucky television advertisements, as she is with almost weekly results highlighting her relative weaknesses with white men and young voters. And Kentucky is a closed primary where only Democrats can compete.

As for Sanders, he has been the leading candidate for campaign donations coming from Kentucky for three straight months, according to an analysis performed by the Kentucky Center for Investigative Reporting. So, can this mean that he is about to win Kentucky as well? He is not without chances so make your prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-kentucky-democratic-primary/.

What is your opinion on Kentucky Democratic primary, and what other primary markets do you want to see created?

It’s Eurovision time! Who will win this year? Russia, France, someone else?

Okay, it is still four days till the Grand Final scheduled for May 14, but tonight’s Semi Final 1 will be interesting as well. We will see Russia who is by far the biggest favorite to be the final winner on Saturday, but also to win tonight. Armenia, which is also one of the big favorites, is scheduled for tonight as well as 16 other nations.

You have an hour more to predict your Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - Semi Final 1 Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-1-winner/.

Semi Final 2 is scheduled for Thursday and that night most of the focus will be on Ukraine which chances improved a lot in the last few days, so Ukraine is the first favorite to win the Semi Final 2 as well. But we will also see Australia that is a rather popular bet, while Latvia, Bulgaria, Serbia and plenty other nations want a surprise win.

No need to hurry, you have two days more to predict Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - Semi Final 2 Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-2-winner/.

So, you have two evenings to hear all the songs and choose your favorite for the Grand Final scheduled for Saturday, and besides Russia and Ukraine, Sweden and France are also given rather big chances for the final win. They are already in the final, but you should hurry if you want to bet on them as odds could change after the semis.

You have four days more to predict the final Winner of Eurovision Song Contest 2016, but hurry up:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/.

Who is your favorite? And don’t forget that you can suggest some additional markets for the final evening as well.

Who will be the next Spanish prime minister? Mariano Rajoy, Pedro Sanchez or someone else?

The 2015 Spanish general election was held on December 20, but no party secured a majority in this election, which had resulted in the most fragmented parliament since 1977. After months of negotiations, the four parties with the most seats were unable to reach an agreement and form a coalition government, leading to a fresh election in this year.

This was the first time in Spanish recent history that an election was triggered as a result of failure in the government formation process, and many hope this will change with the 2016 Spanish general election that will be held on June 26.

Still, is anything about to change? The latest poll of polls data from Electograph shows only minor changes compared to the results of the last general election on December 20, 2015. No party is currently forecast to be close to an overall majority, of 176 out of 350 seats in Congress, which history suggests requires at least 44% of the vote.

The order of the parties remains the same: PP, PSOE, Podemos, Ciudadanos and United Left. Thus Mariano Rajoy, leader of the conservative People’s party, is still given the biggest chances to be the next Spanish prime minister.

Second option is Spain’s Socialist party leader Pedro Sanchez, while none of other names is too popular at the moment, though following general election could change that. Will someone else prevail, or can Mariano Rajoy, who has been almost entirely absent from the recent political drama in Spain, prevail once again? Predict at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-be-the-next-spanish-prime-minister/.

What is your opinion on recent political drama in Spain, and what other politics markets would you like to have created?

Who did Negan kill in the season finale of The Walking Dead?

A month ago the AMC drama ‘The Walking Dead’ finally introduced Jeffrey Dean Morgan as the comic series' dastardly villain Negan, setting the stage for an all-out war to come in season seven. But the season six finale didn’t answer the biggest burning question on everyone's minds:

Who dies?

As expected, comics villain Negan made his debut in the closing scene of the 90-minute season finale when he lined up the survivors and, with his baseball bat covered in barbed wire, took a swing at one of them. However, the series cuts to black and the audio reveals only the brutal and savage sounds as Negan beats an unseen member of the group to death.

Who did Negan kill?

By failing to identify whom Negan whacks, the zombie drama is able to keep fans guessing when it comes to which of the beloved characters (Rick, Michonne, Glenn, Daryl, Rosita, Carl, Maggie, Aaron, Eugene, Abraham or Sasha) has met their maker. In the comics Negan killed Glenn and many think that this character had same fate in TV Series.

Did Negan kill Glenn?

Season seven premiere, scheduled for October 9 this year, will show us who was at the end of that bat. Many think that it could be Rosita, others are sure that it is Abraham, there are articles opened with 'Poor Eugene' but nothing is certain. If you watch this TV Series, you certainly have your opinion and now you also have an open market at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-did-negan-kill/.

Is Bernie Sanders about to win West Virginia Democratic primary? Or can Hillary prevail?

After win in Indiana this Tuesday, Bernie Sanders is positive he can win West Virginia Democratic primary following Tuesday. He is a rather big favorite, but can Hillary prevail as recent polls show that she is not without chances, as many think?

Metro News West Virginia Poll announced today that in the Democratic presidential race, 47 percent of likely Democratic voters backed Sanders, 43 percent said they supported Hillary Clinton, and 11 percent were not sure.

As it was all year, Sanders’ strength is among people between the ages of 18 and 34, and he hopes there will be a high turnout with young voters. But his other strength is Donald Trump who tweeted today: ‘Crooked Hillary has ZERO leadership ability. As Bernie Sanders says, she has bad judgment. Constantly playing the women's card - it is sad!’

So, it looks like Trump can help Bernie win West Virginia. At the same time, the fact that West Virginia holds semi-open primaries goes in Hillary’s favor. Anyway, Bernie is the favorite but those who think Hillary could prevail, despite being attacked by Donald Trump, have great odds on her win at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-west-virginia-democratic-primary/.

What is your opinion on this primary, and what other US Presidential Election markets would you like to see created?

Who will Donald Trump choose as a Republican Vice Presidential Candidate?

With both Ted Cruz and John Kasich out of the race after losing Indiana Primary, it is sure that Donald Trump will be Republican Candidate for the President. So, now it is time to reopen question of his Vice Presidential Candidate.

If someone is unpredictable then it is Donald Trump, so at the moment all the different names are in contest. Especially with the fact that Trump's inner circle remains devoid of establishment types, so we quickly get into a situation where the people talking don't know much and the people who do know aren't talking. But, few names are talked about.

"I think Chris Christie is fantastic," Trump said recently. And no one has risked more with his support for Trump than Christie, who has been roundly mocked and dismissed by the GOP establishment for the decision, and two of them look like a good match. But the problem could be that Christie doesn't add a ton to the Trump ticket. Does Trump care?

But if Trump wanted to add a ton to his ticket, Joni Ernst would be a great option. She has been critical of Trump's comments about women but she is a gifted communicator and someone who might help sell Trump to the Midwestern voters he badly needs if he wants to be competitive with Clinton. So, could she be the perfect choice?

And we also have people who recently raced against him, like John Kasich who gave up just last night and who was on rather friendly terms with Trump throughout the race. Or Marco Rubio who could help Trump with outreach to establishment Republicans and help Trump to avoid an electoral disaster in the Hispanic community.

And there are few more popular names like Newt Gingrich or Susana Martinez, or even Ben Carson and Jeff Sessions. Anyway, all is far from certain so any option on your Vice Presidential Candidate offers great odds at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate/.

So, who is your favorite for the Republican Candidate for Vice President, and do you want some similar markets created?

Ted Cruz is out, so will John Kasich drop out before June?

Last night it was officially confirmed: There will be no “Stop Trump” candidate, not after his 15-plus-point win in Indiana.

Donald Trump won Indiana Primary with 53.3%, Ted Cruz dropped out of presidential race after losing Indiana with 36.6%, and the last man standing against Trump is John Kasich who won 7.6% last night. So, if Cruz dropped out of race, why is Kasich, who won in total only 153 delegates, staying in it?

“Tonight’s results are not going to alter Gov. Kasich’s campaign plans,” read the memo from Kasich chief strategist John Weaver. “Our strategy has been and continues to be one that involves winning the nomination at an open convention.”

Since last night it is clear that Trump will win nomination before open convention, so Kasich can give up as well. Will he?

He has only won one contest, his home state of Ohio, and is currently in fourth place in the delegate race. Even Marco Rubio, who left the race in March, still has more delegates than Kasich. Still, it looks like he doesn’t want to give up before Trump wins 1,237 delegates. Many say he is delusional.

And Trump is now 190 delegates short, with four primaries more in May. Thus the question is, will John Kasich drop out before June and ending primaries, or he will stay till the end? Here is Fairlay market for you to place your prediction:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-john-kasich-drop-out-before-june-1/.

What is your opinion on John Kasich, is he really delusional? And what other Presidential markets you want to bet on?

Will Gary Lineker keep his word and present Match of the Day in his underwear?

Last night Leicester City defied 5000-1 odds to become Premier League champion and thus one of the most beautiful sport stories ever got its perfect ending. Plenty of their fans made huge money by using these incredible odds, but it is now time for their most popular fan to keep his words:

Former England football captain Gary Lineker, who has been presenting BBC TV’s principal football programme Match of the Day since 1999, made the pledge that he will do the first MOTD of the next season in just his undies, if his former and local club makes the most unlikely of championship wins. Leicester did it, so it is time for him to keep his word.

In March Lineker confirmed he will remain true to his word and appear before millions of television viewers in his underwear. Now you have an open market at Fairlay will he, on August 13, indeed present MOTD in his underwear, but note that it is resolved as No if he wears it over his trousers:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/gary-lineker-to-present-motd-in-his-underwear/.

Is Jose Mourinho going to coach Zlatan Ibrahimovic in Manchester United next season?

As football season is getting towards its end, there is plenty of transfer talk, and it is not only about players but also about managers. With Jose Mourinho being free since December, his next club is one of the trending topics in football community. From the biggest world clubs, to some national teams, to even Leeds United’s boss asking him to show how big he is by training club that doesn’t have world's top players.

But, after months of talks, it looks like Jose Mourinho will once again be in the English Premier League as he is close to making a deal with Manchester United, and there are talks that it could be confirmed even this week. But, Paris Saint-Germain wants him as its manager as well, as plenty of clubs do, so now you can make your prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jose-mourinhos-next-club/.

And, if he comes to Manhcester United, will he be followed by Zlatan Ibrahimovic who in March joked that he will stay at Paris Saint-Germain if his statue replaces the Eiffel Tower. So, his chances to stay in France are small, but where will he go next? Manchester United is indeed his first option, but plenty of English Premier League clubs are as well.

Arsenal and Chelsea are not big surprises, but it is a bit of surprise that West Ham want him in its team. If he doesn't go to England, there are even chances that he could leave Europe for some big money in China or in one of the MSL teams. Anyway, there are chances that he and Jose Mourinho will be in Manchester United next season, but you have great odds if you guess right Zlatan's next club, weather it is United or any other:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/zlatan-ibrahimovics-next-club/.

What is your opinion on these markets, and what other Football Specials would you like to have created at Fairlay?

Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he has Satoshi Nakamoto’s private PGP key?

Craig Steven Wright reveals himself as Satoshi Nakamoto! This was worldwide top story this morning, this time announced by BBC, GQ, and The Economist. But, is he really? The Economist followed well with the note ‘Mr Wright could well be Mr Nakamoto, but nagging questions remain’. Wright tried to present some proofs but they don’t look strong at all, so will he follow them with the stronger ones, and confirm that he is indeed Satoshi Nakomoto?

“We have again asked Mr Wright to provide additional information so we can independently verify that he is in possession of the cryptographic keys that would prove that he is Mr Nakamoto. We have requested that he provide a corrected version of his initial proof. And we have asked him to use private keys he supposedly has in his possession to sign the first paragraph of our first article, including the date, which would be even better proof of his identity,” was written later today on The Economist, as Craig Wright’s claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto came under fire.

So, can Mr Wright prove that he is in possession of cryptographic keys that only Mr Nakamoto should have? “If someone were to successfully sign with the Satoshi PGP key, it would not prove that he is Satoshi,” said Jerry Brito, the executive director of Coin Center. But, it would certainly be the first step and, as this is trending topic in Bitcoin community, you now have an open market on Fairlay ‘Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he has Satoshi Nakamoto’s private PGP key?’:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-craig-steven-wright-prove-that-he-has-satoshi-nakamotos-private-pgp-key/.

Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he is the miner of block 1?

Other evidence that Craig Steven Wright is indeed Satoshi Nakamoto could be proving that he is the miner of early blocks. In his today’ blog post Wright said that he does indeed control the key for block 9 and gave a step-by-step explanation of how this can be proven. He has also demonstrated this verification in person to The Economist - both for block 9, and block 1, though such demonstrations can be stage-managed.

The Economist writer says that “as far as we can tell he indeed seems to be in possession of the keys, at least for block 9”. Problem is that Wright doesn’t want to make public the proof for block 1, arguing that block 9 contains the only bitcoin address that is clearly linked to Nakamoto. But, if he wants to prove that he is the real Satoshi, he will need to do this as well, so here is another Fairlay market – ‘Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he is the miner of block 1?’:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-craig-steven-wright-prove-that-he-is-the-miner-of-block-1/.

What is your opinion on this Craig Steven Wright topic? Do you think that he is a smart fraud, or he can really provide some of the proof? But even if he provides some of them, will that be enough to prove that he is Satoshi Nakamoto? Many questions are currently open, plenty of people want to close them as soon as possible, so hurry up to place your predictions at Fairlay, and suggest your own markets considering this, or any other relevant topic.

Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he has Satoshi Nakamoto’s private PGP key?

Craig Steven Wright reveals himself as Satoshi Nakamoto! This was worldwide top story this morning, this time announced by BBC, GQ, and The Economist. But, is he really? The Economist followed well with the note ‘Mr Wright could well be Mr Nakamoto, but nagging questions remain’. Wright tried to present some proofs but they don’t look strong at all, so will he follow them with the stronger ones, and confirm that he is indeed Satoshi Nakomoto?

“We have again asked Mr Wright to provide additional information so we can independently verify that he is in possession of the cryptographic keys that would prove that he is Mr Nakamoto. We have requested that he provide a corrected version of his initial proof. And we have asked him to use private keys he supposedly has in his possession to sign the first paragraph of our first article, including the date, which would be even better proof of his identity,” was written later today on The Economist, as Craig Wright’s claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto came under fire.

So, can Mr Wright prove that he is in possession of cryptographic keys that only Mr Nakamoto should have? “If someone were to successfully sign with the Satoshi PGP key, it would not prove that he is Satoshi,” said Jerry Brito, the executive director of Coin Center. But, it would certainly be the first step and, as this is trending topic in Bitcoin community, you now have an open market on Fairlay ‘Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he has Satoshi Nakamoto’s private PGP key?’:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-craig-steven-wright-prove-that-he-has-satoshi-nakamotos-private-pgp-key/.

Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he is the miner of block 1?

Other evidence that Craig Steven Wright is indeed Satoshi Nakamoto could be proving that he is the miner of early blocks. In his today’ blog post Wright said that he does indeed control the key for block 9 and gave a step-by-step explanation of how this can be proven. He has also demonstrated this verification in person to The Economist - both for block 9, and block 1, though such demonstrations can be stage-managed.

The Economist writer says that “as far as we can tell he indeed seems to be in possession of the keys, at least for block 9”. Problem is that Wright doesn’t want to make public the proof for block 1, arguing that block 9 contains the only bitcoin address that is clearly linked to Nakamoto. But, if he wants to prove that he is the real Satoshi, he will need to do this as well, so here is another Fairlay market – ‘Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he is the miner of block 1?’:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-craig-steven-wright-prove-that-he-is-the-miner-of-block-1/.

What is your opinion on this Craig Steven Wright topic? Do you think that he is a smart fraud, or he can really provide some of the proof? But even if he provides some of them, will that be enough to prove that he is Satoshi Nakamoto? Many questions are currently open, plenty of people want to close them as soon as possible, so hurry up to place your predictions at Fairlay, and suggest your own markets considering this, or any other relevant topic.

Austrian presidential election, second round run-off: Can Alexander Van der Bellen stop Norbert Hofer?

A week ago presidential election was held in Austria, but no candidate received a majority of the vote so a second round run-off is scheduled for May 22. Second round will be really interesting as we are left with Norbert Hofer, the first round winner of the Freedom Party of Austria, and Alexander Van der Bellen, a member of the Austrian Greens contesting as an independent, placed second in the first round.

Norbert Hofer got surprisingly huge 36% after the first round, leaving Van der Bellen at 21%, but he is still far from winning position, as recent poll gives them 50%-50% chances. Norbert Hofer has already threatened to dissolve parliament before 2018 elections, so Austria is braced for political turmoil with fears that victory for a rightwing populist and gun-carrying candidate could trigger snap elections.

But, partly because of claims that he protects himself in the uncertain times of the refugee crisis by carrying a Glock gun, Norbert Hofer scored overwhelming victories in all of Austria’s states apart from Vienna. So, can Van der Bellen, an outsider candidate who ran for office without the official endorsement of the Green party and has criticized the Austrian government’s cap on asylum seekers, stop Hofer from becoming the next President?

In Van der Bellen’s favor goes the fact that the established parties will do their best to stop a rightwing populist from coming to power, but even with that it is hard to make any prognosis. And momentum is with Norbert Hofer whose party will try to frame the following election around the refugees question. Anyway, it will be the first time since 1945 that the president has not come from the two centrist parties, and you can predict at Fairlay who will it be:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/austrian-election-next-president/.

Fairlay market is even at the moment, but what is your opinion on this election? And what are similar markets considering politics that you would like to place your predictions on?