|
Yes I think give it 4 hours.
a rally of $200 from 500 is a nice move, and it must consolidate.
the volume is impressive, although the volume distribution of the move tells a story about it's indecisiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
An impressive rally of nearly $200 on bitstamp probably caused by both the 500 figure and renewed ability to withdraw.
I suppose that it should take at least 24hours before the pressure of buy orders of those eager to withdraw are is satisfied.
$200 is a fair move and should cap the rally, although perhaps we will have a bargain selling opportunity in a few hours creeping up to 700-730.
The move should be capped by 750, a weekly point of resistance. It would take a lot of force to drive it over that point, 800 being critical resistance.
Too many people are calling for a long term bottom at $500, their hopes have been strengthened at this point. The longs may take a few days
to unwind and retest 500.
If the move lacks momentum I would expect a wedge to form above 500 before ultimately piercing it.
|
|
|
|
Count me among the optimists. Here's something I've been considering lately. I learned my big lesson in not trusting 3rd parties with any significant amounts of bitcoin in 2012 with the bitcoinica fuck up. Many of us learned that lesson through that experience and others back then. But, there just weren't that many of us.
This go around there are a lot more people with a lot more money invested in bitcoin. And this most recent incident was enormous in scale, affecting multiple 3rd parties. Basically, everyone just got schooled in why you don't keep lots of bitcoin with 3rd parties, and I suspect over the coming months we're going to see the bitcoin supply on exchanges drop as people withdraw their bitcoins and learn to hold them themselves.
The whole infrastructure is still maturing and VC interest is clear. However, VCs won't tolerate the risk of investing in startups with inexperienced management teams, and, therefore, I think we're in the midst of seeing it change hands from business owners with little real business experience to more experienced managers. My thinking is that the infrastructure is moving forward and becoming more mature and robust and more usable and interesting for end users and business integration, and I think supplies on the open markets will decrease. Combine those two things and I think you have the ingredients for another strong bull run later this year.
Just some thoughts.
Proudhon, I just made a fortune of my maximally leveraged shotr position, are you saying I should now assume a maximally leveraged logn poisition? thanks for the advice. |
|
|
|
I dont feel like being too bullish right now but; http://www.coindesk.com/africas-largest-bank-trials-bitcoin-integration-system/Not everyone knows that Africa is a play ground for the chinese. What is so interesting about this is that Standard Bank is owned by.... you guessed
it....Chinese.I was born in South Africa, and I know just how much this will help them. my parents will be he first to move money back to New Zealand with this service, because we have had no good alternative. Dont be fooled, there is a huge market in South Africa that have access to technology enough to use bitcoins. all they need is education and infrastructure. Can you quote some sources saying that it is owned by "Chinese"? 20% doesn't mean it is owned by.... Let's not start with another conspiracy theory about the chinese I didnt know exactly how many shares the chinese own, sorry, although 20% is not bad. It is still significant, because the chinese are really have a lot of power in SA, just like the the USA. If the chinese share holders didnt want bitcoin... do you think they would put up with it? I guarantee you this wasnt the idea of any high and mighty corrupt African...... because they think way too small for this. |
|
|
|
I wouldnt expect it to be very accurate, but I wouldnt be surprised if in a market of critical mass things grew at a scientific rate. I dont know what the formula is though.
the theoritical formula is simple: exponential growth rats and rabbits theoretically follow the Fibonacci series edit: read above for a more accurate explanation of the exponential growth thanks - but in theory this cannot truly be exponential, perhaps more like an 'S' curve so they say. certainly exponential growth is a component. |
|
|
|
|
just a couple of nights ago there were optimists screaming 'to do moon'. most of them will be hanging on for dear life now, and some will be selling for dear life. it might take another 40% before they let go.
|
|
|
|
|
In December, when I made the estimate for $400 bottom in January-March time, I based it solely on trendline analysis. The
I understand what the market price is, but I don't know, how it is based on the priced of last december. I mean, good news make the price go higher, bad news make the price go lower. So how are this news connected to the prices 6 weeks ago? Do Gox only have this problems and in this time, because there were some trend line in december?
[/quote]
At this stage, good/bad news does not entail commercial demand/supply at all, only demand/supply to come because the infrastructure still needs to grow. all the swings are caused by the speculators, that must orbit around an average because it's a zero sum game.
|
|
|
|
If everybody expects $500, we will not get $500. Buy when the forum is bearish.
Very true, each time everybody expects a certain price, it doesn't happen. Do you know why I expect 500? because I expect 350...... |
|
|
|
So why in the hell doesn't the price budge with what appears to be such bullish news?
That is the nature of the market..... I shouldn't have to explain that on this site. I think it deserves explanation, because bullish news doesn't budge the price anymore, even before the Gox craziness. It seems like ever since China clamped down on Bitcoin, good news is basically no news. You guys are wrong to shrug it off and say "hey, that's the market man". Sorry, but that's a cop out. No its not. You haven't been around very long. You have no real first hand experience. The market is ahead of the fundamentals. Eventually they even out and then the market takes off ahead of the fundamentals again. Right now good news doesnt bring a lot of new money into the market. But eventually, as fundamentals expand new money comes in for a variety of reasons. exactly, this announcement does not entail that commercial demand will raise the price any time soon. so, over to all the opportunistic speculators right?, nope they all want out cos they are a little bit nervous right now. aint nobody going to pump bitcoin for a little while. sorry. |
|
|
|
So why in the hell doesn't the price budge with what appears to be such bullish news?
That is the nature of the market..... I shouldn't have to explain that on this site. I think it deserves explanation, because bullish news doesn't budge the price anymore, even before the Gox craziness. It seems like ever since China clamped down on Bitcoin, good news is basically no news. You guys are wrong to shrug it off and say "hey, that's the market man". Sorry, but that's a cop out. The explanation is simple, the price has been left high and dry by overly optimistic speculators. This news on its own would not entail a market price of very much, maybe $100 if lucky. It only takes one whale who wants out to totally cap good news. This is really basic stuff, some massive pieces of news can guide us fundamentally over the longer term, the rest is usually useless. |
|
|
|
So why in the hell doesn't the price budge with what appears to be such bullish news?
That is the nature of the market..... I shouldn't have to explain that on this site. |
|
|
|
I dont feel like being too bullish right now but; http://www.coindesk.com/africas-largest-bank-trials-bitcoin-integration-system/Not everyone knows that Africa is a play ground for the chinese. What is so interesting about this is that Standard Bank is owned by.... you guessed it.... Chinese.I was born in South Africa, and I know just how much this will help them. my parents will be he first to move money back to New Zealand with this service, because we have had no good alternative. Dont be fooled, there is a huge market in South Africa that have access to technology enough to use bitcoins. all they need is education and infrastructure. |
|
|
|
Luckily I only got 1 at 800, just in case it went to Mars... I'm starting to think about now is the time to buy more. My target is 300. Thots?
I cashed out at 750.... gonna buy at 380, I think 300 is right on the mark but dont count on it!! you may see a reversal at 400-500, then go for it. have some cheep orders in. thats my 2 cents. |
|
|
|
Nothing. No one gun-shy about stock volatility is going to find the volatility of BTC comforting.
in the long run, bitcoin prices are forecast to increase, in the long run, stock price are forecast to decrease. I think that there are many investors out there that might prefer that kind of volatility, cos the stock market is going to get ugly as hell. |
|
|
|
It's been mid-high $600s all day. I'm still waiting for the real crash, one that lasts more than 5 seconds.
give it 12 hours I reckon, we will see 550, maybe less. Highly unlikely. The "crash" has happened. 'highly unlikely' - where do you get your sources? It is trending down, sorry. there is only FUD to think about, russia bans, apple bans, mt Gox down, BTCe witdrawal problems, 'bug' in the system (there are ignorant people to believe this)..... etc... and there is no good news coming for a while either. give investors time to dwell on these. last night all the happy go lucky speculators were cheering 'to the moon', obviously, the crash has not happened. expect 350...... because you dont. "Trending" is entirely dependent on your chosen timeframe. The bitstamp price has been trending nicely up the last 12 hrs. Apple ban - nobody cared. Everyone already knew Apple didn't take bitcoin products. No idea what the minor fuss was about. Russian ban - totally expected. Russians, like Chinese, want to control their people. Bitcoin was never going to happen in Russia. About as likely as taking off in North Korea. Gox down - good. Hope it stays down Withdrawal issues - will be fully sorted in next couple of days (except Gox which is a disgrace). You believe there will be a big crash. I don't. We will have to agree to disagree. No need to get excited about it. well obviously the trend Im talking about is based on a few weeks. 500 is certainly in striking range in the next couple of days. you have me given the correct explanation of why these factors are all FUD, but Fear, uncertainty and doubt they certainly are. if you wanna talk about longer term uptrends, Im with you on that subject. if you look at the chart, you can see we are threatening 550.... The problem with chart reading is its a bit like reading tealeaves. Get 10 "experts" to draw triangles on charts and you get 10 different "readings". The only chart threatening 550 is the Gox one and I really don't give a rat's arse about what the Gox chart shows these days. You might be right of course. People may be overcome with FUD flu in the next days, and the price plummet. But most bitcoiners have seen this all before and STAY CALM. yeah lines and triangles are ambiguous at best, but sentiment is second to none as an indicator. as long as the troll box is full of happy and hopeful speculators, the crash hasnt quite finished yet. thats nature. |
|
|
|
It's been mid-high $600s all day. I'm still waiting for the real crash, one that lasts more than 5 seconds.
give it 12 hours I reckon, we will see 550, maybe less. Highly unlikely. The "crash" has happened. 'highly unlikely' - where do you get your sources? It is trending down, sorry. there is only FUD to think about, russia bans, apple bans, mt Gox down, BTCe witdrawal problems, 'bug' in the system (there are ignorant people to believe this)..... etc... and there is no good news coming for a while either. give investors time to dwell on these. last night all the happy go lucky speculators were cheering 'to the moon', obviously, the crash has not happened. expect 350...... because you dont. "Trending" is entirely dependent on your chosen timeframe. The bitstamp price has been trending nicely up the last 12 hrs. Apple ban - nobody cared. Everyone already knew Apple didn't take bitcoin products. No idea what the minor fuss was about. Russian ban - totally expected. Russians, like Chinese, want to control their people. Bitcoin was never going to happen in Russia. About as likely as taking off in North Korea. Gox down - good. Hope it stays down Withdrawal issues - will be fully sorted in next couple of days (except Gox which is a disgrace). You believe there will be a big crash. I don't. We will have to agree to disagree. No need to get excited about it. So why should Bitcoins be valued at its current price when 40% of the mobile market not be able to buy anything using their phones? When the government of a 1/3 of the worlds population not support Bitcoins growth. There does not exist a dedicated Bitcoin exchange that technically deals with the US government when 90% of Bitcoin business are located in America. I want Bitcoins to grow, but it is still lacking in so many ways and just because the price is at a ridiculous value doesn't mean that. Look how easily exchanges are bound to fail with simple government intervention or FUD panic... exactly, plus, $700 is still a speculative price, not at all justified by commercial demand. It is very unstable, and that makes larger investors nervous. if there is a wave down, aint nobody wanna catch a falling knife. panic is so easy to cause in bitcoin. who will push it up in the coming days? I dunno. the smaller speculators have had their fill. it will range trade for a few days, before trending down to 400. |
|
|
|
It's been mid-high $600s all day. I'm still waiting for the real crash, one that lasts more than 5 seconds.
give it 12 hours I reckon, we will see 550, maybe less. Highly unlikely. The "crash" has happened. 'highly unlikely' - where do you get your sources? It is trending down, sorry. there is only FUD to think about, russia bans, apple bans, mt Gox down, BTCe witdrawal problems, 'bug' in the system (there are ignorant people to believe this)..... etc... and there is no good news coming for a while either. give investors time to dwell on these. last night all the happy go lucky speculators were cheering 'to the moon', obviously, the crash has not happened. expect 350...... because you dont. "Trending" is entirely dependent on your chosen timeframe. The bitstamp price has been trending nicely up the last 12 hrs. Apple ban - nobody cared. Everyone already knew Apple didn't take bitcoin products. No idea what the minor fuss was about. Russian ban - totally expected. Russians, like Chinese, want to control their people. Bitcoin was never going to happen in Russia. About as likely as taking off in North Korea. Gox down - good. Hope it stays down Withdrawal issues - will be fully sorted in next couple of days (except Gox which is a disgrace). You believe there will be a big crash. I don't. We will have to agree to disagree. No need to get excited about it. well obviously the trend Im talking about is based on a few weeks. 500 is certainly in striking range in the next couple of days. you have me given the correct explanation of why these factors are all FUD, but Fear, uncertainty and doubt they certainly are. if you wanna talk about longer term uptrends, Im with you on that subject. if you look at the chart, you can see we are threatening 550.... |
|
|
|
I actually think it highly likely that an altcoin funded and backed by a major tech or financial corporation is in development. (A googlecoin or applecoin fif you will.) Spreading FUD on bitcoin might be a good play for such.
Not that I think THOSE guys are necessarily working on one, but I think an organization which would have assets to guarantee a value of their coin would make for a popular coin for newbs and the like. Oh and hey, it and only it are accepted at their online store too. . .
There would be an online exchange trading bitcoin for Googlecoin within 48 hours of release. If heavy hitters attempt to co-op the protocol, it would be a strong sign that we are winning. google coin wouldnt work for one of three reasons; - the protocol will be in some way centralised (deemed useless and corrupt in the long run) - a decentralised google coin would be out of googles control - google is not prepared to take responsibility for their coins on the silk road. - it would still take many months or years for the mining hardware to approach the level that bitcoin has achieved. |
|
|
|
It's been mid-high $600s all day. I'm still waiting for the real crash, one that lasts more than 5 seconds.
give it 12 hours I reckon, we will see 550, maybe less. Highly unlikely. The "crash" has happened. 'highly unlikely' - where do you get your sources? It is trending down, sorry. there is only FUD to think about, russia bans, apple bans, mt Gox down, BTCe witdrawal problems, 'bug' in the system (there are ignorant people to believe this)..... etc... and there is no good news coming for a while either. give investors time to dwell on these. last night all the happy go lucky speculators were cheering 'to the moon', obviously, the crash has not happened. expect 350...... because you dont. |
|
|
|
It's been mid-high $600s all day. I'm still waiting for the real crash, one that lasts more than 5 seconds.
give it 12 hours I reckon, we will see 550, maybe less. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
