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This dump is such a relief, I almost feel grateful for the bears/Avalon gods, etc. Finally the RSI could dip below 70 for a while, if it were to stay above there, I would really not know what to do.
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Down...
Meh, its only down a little. We could be plateau-ing here for a bit before we move up again. I think its likely we'll have support at $19.5. If not there then $17.7, but I don't think we'll go that low. Only 4000btc to get to $17.70, after about 25,000 gets dumped  How did you get that 25k btc dumped? Was it just volume of all transactions? (bought and sold)? Just an estimation after the initial 10,000 dump and the following sell-offs. Looking at the wall pic I posted earlier it might have been between 15,000 to 20,000 sold. It was a lot though It was not a lot, if that's all the ammunitions they have. |
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Keep in your mind, whenever you panic sell, you are giving us arbitragers a good chunk of your fortune.  |
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Ever since I started trading Bitcoins, I began to like Monday more than weekends.  |
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I can't figure out why many here believe they will. They could do dark pool sellings out of the exchange, many people/corporations/direct buying organizations would be willing to buy their bitcoins at some fixed prices.
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Adam, just hit the buy button!  no, I have absolute confidante in bitcoin ability to out of the blue crash down 10-30% How conservative you have become! Where are my $12.5 bitcoins? |
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http://www.numbersleuth.org/worlds-gold/ gives the total amount of gold in the world at 165000 metric tons. For 21,000,000 BTC and a gold price of 1600 USD an ounce this works out to 400,000 USD per BTC for an equal market cap for bitcoin and gold. wow... now the long term goal is clear...
Why? Only a small percentage of these golds are investable, you know better than me about this. |
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proudhon, what facts back that up? 2013 is still a very young year.
I'm not actually predicting $30 but you're implying BTC/USD will crash hard enough it won't rebound for 11 months. That's pretty bearish...
Proudhon doesn't need no stinking facts. Do a search for his predictions, he's typically not just wrong, but 180 degrees off, with remarkable consistency :-) The last couple of his predictions were actually shattered in the next 48 hour period. So he's getting even more precise in his imprecision, if you see what I mean. More impressively, if you read his last posts, you will see that for months he did next to nothing on this forum but try to convince people to sell and short. |
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In a bubble people will buy out of panic, there is not enough panic in the market yet--nothing close to what we had last time. People are still buying quite cautiously, and many are buying to spend, many are dumping, usually in huge amount, no single day long green candle yet, if this is a bubble, then perhaps all great long-term price rises should be classified as bubbles as well. I am not saying that the price would not go down, I just don't think it's a bubble-not yet.
You are right in the sense that the only panic buying of the latest, was from Gox Dollar accounts plus some additional 10-15% new cash. However there are wallets out there with people that mined a little or much in 2009-2010, and they might feel it is worth while to register with Gox now and collect! The sideways periods are a good detector for old coins going into circulation, so if we stay at around 20 for a week or three, I will consider your assumption right. What you describe is a hype bubble, but all bubbles are, when they start to decline the asset was overvalued i.e. an unfunded hype. I'm not saying that the price now is unsustainable or that we are going to see a crash soon, just that it will go down again. The cycle lows are usually a better indicator of support than the peaks. I could agree with many of the things you said, but what I think we should really be aware of is that when the people on this forum talk about "Bubble", what they most likely have somewhere in their minds a specific phenomenon they have seen before, thus I think it is worth pointing out the difference between what we are seeing now and "that" phenomenon. |
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In a bubble people will buy out of panic, there is not enough panic in the market yet--nothing close to what we had last time. People are still buying quite cautiously, and many are buying to spend, many are dumping, usually in huge amount, no single day long green candle yet, if this is a bubble, then perhaps all great long-term price rises should be classified as bubbles as well. I am not saying that the price would not go down, I just don't think it's a bubble-not yet.
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We may not have entered the bubble phase yet, as long as we get a correction every two days. In a bubble there would be nearly no correction until the busting.
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1. this is why I mentioned that the BTC/Gold ratio is at an all time high, which is independent from absolute unit effects
2. what is the "mkt cap" of Silver and Gold?
We can not tell, but we can estimate, in orders of tens of billions of USD, hundreds of billions, etc. We don't really need to reach a so-called "parity", just to have a roughly comparable market is enough of a statement. |
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I am actually interested in what kind of a person the OP maybe. Many of the things he said makes completely no sense at all.
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lol! oh, THAT guess. at least i guessed UP, not down, from where it was at the time. Yeah, and actually you were closer than many. But you made me thinking for a while what are the reasons we would not be above $20 by then! |
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Pound/ounce are just random units people came up with, unlike 1 BTC, which is exactly 1/2100000 of the total amount of bitcoins that will ever be in circulation. So I think the important question to ask is if the total market cap of bitcoin could reach a significant percentage of that of silver,
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This is sheer madness.
 This is exponential function you insensitive clod! |
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Do we have a big boss who will let small fishes eating up all the ask orders between integers, then personally intervene to take down the walls at integers?
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