Lucky number: 33
Username: deisik

I would say opinions vary

There was a startup a few years ago which came up with an idea of paper bitcoins called BitNotes. What's become of them? Regardless, this question had been extensively discussed a few years ago, and personally, I don't find this idea as disgusting as many others come to think of it, at least as long as these paper bitcoins are "provably fair", i.e. you can always check whether a particular paper bitcoin is actually backed up by anything on the blockchain (and in the same amount). I think it is technically possible to lock these "real" bitcoins until the paper tokens representing them are destroyed or otherwise redeemed

My opinion may very well be unorthodox

Long story short, to be a successful trader you should have an appropriate mindset. The problem is that most people don't have that mindset and thus they are predisposed to lose in the long run. So if you want my take on this, you should first find out whether you belong to the winning minority or the losing majority. Indeed, you can find out that the hard way (most likely, by losing piles of money), but there should be ways which could show how you would actually fare in the stressful conditions of real trading (hint, demo-trading is definitely not of one of these ways)


Trend is your friend, indeed. Until it turns around and stabs you in the back


I think the best way to learn the basics of trading is to work alongside a real trader with lots of expertise and success in the field

It's been a while since I last posted my stats here. And you know what? I'm still rolling!



Since my last post in this thread I've seen a few bouts of high variance (read, long losing streaks) which allowed me to raise my profits significantly (as you can see, these streaks were not long enough to wipe me out yet). Yeah, I know it is still mostly dust in dollar terms, but Rome wasn't built in a day, right? So stay tuned, follow the thread, and keep your fingers crossed!

I'm curious, why did you choose to leave?

If you don't want to answer this question, just ignore it. I understand that your current signature campaign can potentially earn you more (which I have nothing against, just in case), but personally, I consider Yobit (under whatever name) the last signature campaign to enroll in

Well, in fact I was involved with them for as long as two days and they didn't pay as promised (and not just me). The point is, while they seem to be paying now, there is nothing that would stop them from not paying in the future as it already happened once (perhaps not just once), let alone ending their current campaign at any moment

Well, I can't say that I particularly disagree with your point

Basically, what you are trying to say comes down to rendering a particular trigger harmless, i.e. stopping it from being a trigger of a certain emotion. For example, you may suffer from acrophobia (extreme fear of heights) that makes you panicky whenever you find yourself in a triggering situation (e.g. on the roof of a skyscraper or within close proximity of a panoramic window near the top of that building). Technically, you could work with this fear and probably get satisfying results after some effort (or should I actually say pain and suffering?). But is it worth it when you can simply avoid such situations and happily live with that?

Exceptions typically prove the rule

And the rule here seems to be as follows. If you are an average guy with pretty average abilities who has been born into poverty in a third world country, no matter what you do (or dream of), you will basically end up where you started from (unless luck massively interferes). To be an exception, you need to be well above the average and you would still need a bit of luck to break out of the so-called poverty trap. Besides, it is through others and their help that such people move up. Long story short, if you rely only on yourself, you won't get anywhere (read, it is a team effort)

I can only guess the psychological pressure they must be under

I suspect it is pretty much like arbitrage in trading. A few years ago I was making decent monies by arbitraging doges (it was quite profitable back in the day, idk about now) but what a hell of a job was that! In fact, I was able to multiply my starting capital like 8x within just six months or so (maybe, even less than that) but in the end I had had enough of it and switched to regular trading, which doesn't give me so much stress and anxiety

I think it depends

I don't know how the affiliate system works in detail to make any solid conclusion myself, but from what I read here about other dice sites and faucets (more specifically, freebitco.in, which also offers hi-lo game), it is a pretty common thing. I mean using multiple accounts belonging to the same person as their own affiliates. You can read the freebitco.in thread here (the last few pages) where these people come to complain that their accounts have been blocked for this reason exactly. Wolf.bet is just too young to see the influx of these cheaters. But it is only a matter of time

You're welcome!

It was a pleasure working with you

I'm done with the translation. Link to the translation file sent via PM

Yes, you double your bet on each loss

But you are free to set the payout factor (i.e. your win chance) as you see appropriate. In your setup specifically (if I got it right), no matter how long your losing streak might be, you will always be earning the same 1 mBTC. Personally, I use this system in a different way. I more or less double my bet at each loss (the setup I'm currently running at wolf.bet uses the increase of 120% as of now, i.e. it is a little more than double), but I set the win chance to 37%. So the longer the losing streak, the more I win when it finally ends. In this manner, I give some leeway to variance, which is impossible with the classic martingale


Then 10 consecutive losses are in fact nothing out of the ordinary. You will encounter it within just a few hours (maybe, even within an hour of active or automatic betting). Regarding chances like 90 or 2 percent, I have yet to look deeper into such setup (some strange things start to happen at lower chances which I can't explain statistically)

The problem is more complex than it appears

More specifically, there is no shortage in raw materials and natural resources. Whatever natural resources market you may look at, it is saturated with plenty of suppliers from different countries undercutting each other. The implication is that it doesn't give them any advantage as any of them can be easily substituted by another supplier. Apart from that, such countries have corrupt governments which are busy filling their pockets. They are not willing to improve the lives of their citizens as these citizens may no longer want these governments once they are better off overall

Здесь я ничего конкретного сказать не могу

Но нужно учитывать, что Мадуро (зачеркнуто) Чавес национализировал всю местную нефтянку, которая принадлежала не абы кому, а американскому истеблишменту в лице бушей и прочих колоритных персонажей, поэтому снести правящий режим в Венесуэле может быть для них личным делом - делом чести, так сказать (ну насколько они понимают это понятие). Примерно, как лично для Буша младшего было завалить Саддама, который якобы взорвал башни-близнецы

Running martingale in this manner is likely not worth it

With this setup you are basically risking everything (as always) but only cover your losses after you hit a win. In my opinion, a better approach is the one where you not only get back what you lost at previous rolls but also earn as much. This is how I use martingale myself. Indeed, that makes the losing streak shorter and that you should make up for by adjusting other settings in your setup. If you use this approach, you will be able to take advantage of variance, which is impossible when you just cover your losses and earn only some fixed amount (like 1 satoshi or whatever)


10 times in a row is neither big nor small on its own as that depends on your win chance which you don't specify

Actually, there is a workaround to handle the volatility issue

As you can use Bitcoin as a store of value without compromising your wealth in dollar terms (read, you don't need stable coins for that). It is called hedging. In the simplest of cases, you open a short position on an exchange like Bitfinex which would be equal to your stash in the same coin (e.g. Bitcoin). And now you are no longer a hostage to volatility. No matter where the price goes, your wealth is intact

Indeed, you will have to provide some collateral (in case of Bitfinex something like 15% plus a little extra to make up for possible short squeezes) and so you become a hostage to an exchange. However, in the worst of cases you will lose less than a quarter of your stash. Further, with stablecoins you are still not safe as you depend entirely on the robustness of the system, and the DAI stablecoin you refer to is not 100% bulletproof either

Sad, but that's how things currently stand

Bitcoin is good for online gambling (Dogecoin is even better, for the record) but somehow we don't see plenty of cryptocurrency adoption going among bricks-and-mortar casinos (if there is any at all). That doesn't feel quite right if Bitcoin is to become a universal means of payment and exchange (the major currency of the world or even a one world currency, in your words)

If it were, we would already see many baby steps in that direction here and there with regular casinos as well as elsewhere. But there are virtually none. The point is, Bitcoin cannot become what you want it to be overnight. That would be a gradual process and require a lot of small steps but the only progress we have seen so far is toward more speculation with Bitcoin as a speculative asset (Bakkt and all)

Absolutely agree with your view

As that's exactly what we should all be looking and striving for. If we can't control strong emotions like anger, fear (maybe, greed too) once they are triggered, we should do our best to avoid situations where such emotions arise and take control over us. With that said, though, it is more like a dream (if at all) rather than a reality for the majority of human beings. In most cases we behave pretty much like animals driven by instincts and knee-jerk reactions

Most of us are living in the present moment without ever looking back as to what happened in the past in similar circumstances or looking forward as to the remote consequences of our actions. Gambling is a perfect example of this pattern of behavior, and especially its extreme form which reveals itself in addiction when a gambling addict exists only in the present quite literally, with no memory of the past and with no idea about the future

I wholeheartedly agree with you as we are easily obsessed with things that arouse us so much


Greed ruined many a gambler (and a trader too, for the record)

I would refer it to one of the basic emotions (so-called primal emotions) which most people cannot resist in a meaningful way. In fact, when you are already possessed by such an emotion (there are a few of them like anger or fear, which are hardwired in us), you can't actually resist their impact at all (until it expires on its own), so any decision you are likely to make under these circumstances will most certainly turn out suboptimal if not outright dangerous. And you then decide to continue gambling

That's stupid, without doubt, and it doesn't make sense either

But stupid is how human mind works in default mode and stupid is what humans do all the time, all of us (so it is kinda natural). Technically (or should I rather say psychologically?), what we are dealing with here is called priming. Priming works unconsciously and it is a real thing even if it is subliminal (you can search Google for a thorough description and explanation of this phenomenon and how it works in real life)

In simple terms, if you are undecided on some matter, the events that immediately precede the moment you make the decision (whatever those might be) will heavily affect it even if you are completely unaware of the connection. So if someone wants you to make a certain decision or just instill doubts about that decision (which seems to be the case here), they can plant the seeds of doubt in this manner and that will in fact cause doubts


If the person is a total stranger (as per OP), the most likely explanation is that you are massively undecided (which can be easily read from the cues your body and face betray) and someone wants to make fun of you by taking your indecision to the next level (apart from manipulating you into making a wrong bet)