Shit this is that classic thread that indicates a floor has been hit. i was really hoping for cheaper coins.
True, but cmon, it's just one fella sold his coins. you need a larger measure of sentiment. 500 is still in striking distance just by correction. |
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it doesn't look good. there's too much God damned buying in bitstamp. even with bitcoin withdrawal closed.
are the ATMs linked to Bitstamp? Relax... the ATMs are whale dispensors. people on the street will take the hit if they are buying now. looks like we will have a sale on bitcoin this week. 50% off |
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jolly good calls everyone. last night the bulls were screaming "to da moon" @700....... it was just so predictable...... 10 hours of ranging and the market flops.
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My speculation: Based on Technical Analysis and market psychology I believe bitcoin will crash and stabilize around 100-200$. I think levels at 100-200 could be good levels for a speculative Risk-Reward investment long term. Maybe we get 5000-10,000 $ in a couple of years if bitcoin manages to compete against 1000 of altcoins.  This is why i hate technical analysis of markets, but it's a necessary evil in certain scenarios suchas when i traded on FOREX, real world markets. At this very moment, this type of analysis does not pertain to bitcoin or any digital currency. You are forgetting the social aspect that are behind bitcoin now, and that's people. It's a whole different playing field then 1 year ago when it was a bandits currency. In summary: you can't apply a technical analysis when something changes as drastic as bitcoin, the adoption is still growing and becoming more widely accepted worldwide. Bitcoin is still very unknown to the masses. I agree with this, you can always apply technical analysis, especially when the asset is up to its neck with speculators. it is a bubble, and so it is subject to technical analysis. I dont mean ponzi scheme, just bubble. |
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If 688 falls, I'm expecting 620 today.
ditto that, 680 would be without doubt bearish. we could see upper 500s if lucky, and hold short for a couple of days. |
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Just to throw another thought into the ring.. A few pages back someone mentioned that the flash crash yesterday was in ways a bit similar to the SR takedown and subsequent flash crash.
Remember what happened after that? We went on a rally. Support was proved, confidence was gained and it things got progressively more bullish.
I think we could be half-way there to having a similar outcome.
Gox is not gone yet, but it is dying. One after one, the voices in the bitcoin world came out and condemned it yesterday.
Coindesk removed it from its price index and many other similar operations followed suit.
It had been a bad joke for too long, everyone knew, but no-one quite knew the scale or the exact issue.
Yesterday cleared a lot of this up. They could still be insolvent too, we just don't know yet, but the community has seemed to turn it's back on Gox in a big way.
Good! They deserve it! But the job is only half done and there could be more bad (worse) news to come.
I guess my point is, much like the SR takedown helped to sanitise bitcoins image and proved support and increased confidence.
Yesterday's shenanigans could possibly have a similar effect. The general sentiment seems to be, Gox are assholes, shouldn't have said what they said, and they are to blame. Yes there is a flaw / bug in the protocol, but it is not new and has been known about for a long time. Their problems are their own fault.
We rebounded pretty quickly in my book. I sold a bit at 700 anticipating the dip.
We were back there in under 24 hours.
Sentiment looks good, in fact i'd say improved! Maybe we won't see $400 afterall.
Could that have been the capitulation? Piggy backing on the news? Flash-capitulation anyone?
Im sure there were people capitulating on that news, rpietila being one of them. but I dont think those investors alone are enough to carry the price higher for longer, because I think investors are very timid at this point. that spike took out all the orders between 600 and 100..... there was really very little in the way relative to what you would expect. There are many investors that dont have the confidence to discard the fallacies presented by Gox, rich chinese and wall street fat cats are not always the brightest. besides, is there anything really bullish about to affect the price? not for the next couple of weeks. Speculators have only negative aspects to dwell on. I think the bull run was impressive, Im interested if it passes 750, but Im not taking it seriously. this too easy for happy go lucky speculators...... they are cheering in the troll box. |
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What I actually see on Bitstamp are massive buys of big chunks of coins.
Someone just buys every wall on the way up. I wonder if this is a bulltrap ...
Thanks
W
The demand is suspicious, either the spike has triggered some kind of opportunistic and coordinated insider buying (I doubt it) or it is building up for a healthy correction/continuation. I doubt we will pass 740 tonight. I am looking for 600. |
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Very good theories from the OP. I find it very difficult to believe that someone was so stupid that just accidentally set a huge sell order without price limit..
yeah, I break out sweating filling out my little orders on BTCe, one should triple check when selling thousands of BTC. It came at a suspicious and vulnerable time. |
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How about maybe Mark in the house of Gox isn't so idiotic after all? Might also been just a good plan of how to make Bitcoin look stronger and possibly spark a new rally. He runs an exchange (some sort) so he probably has an idea of how much money there is just sitting in exchanges in no bid walls or anything. So he releases news like that where he knows that it's not going to take more than 15minutes before some people explain what it is about and that it is not anything new or reason to go panic mode? But also by making up a flashcrash like that he maybe scares those sideline money people to put in bids and that's what we are seeing now?
Yeah, at best, large bid walls only give a small edge. aint nobody wanna drive the market, let somebody else do it. |
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Wow look at the orderbook on stamp and the massive buys yesterday. Still expecting it to trend into $400?
When it finally hits $400, you do not want to buy. You fear for it going to $200 and you losing 50% overnight. Then it is the time to buy  very cunning theory! I also imagine there will be a factor of greed in play after the spike. who would set a buy order at 400 when you can set it at 350? and why not 300? heck, lets try 250. |
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Wow look at the orderbook on stamp and the massive buys yesterday. Still expecting it to trend into $400?
Personally I think it is 50/50. the selling is getting heated up on BTCe, the force has stopped driving the bull market for now, whales that bought at 550 will take a bite of profit. I think we will stay below 730-40 tonight and therefore I think the bulls will stand back and edge their orders a bit lower. We will see soon if this is a bull trap. on a larger scale, it smells of one. on a shorter time scale however, that was a very impressive bull run. |
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I have 5x more value in BTC than I have fiat (while it didnt start out that way). I dont have too much fiat either, but Im sure I sleep better at night having the bitcoins.
Last night was the most stressful night having missed an opportunity to get cheap bitcoins and almost forced out of my temporary fiat position for much smaller profit than desired.
I would say for a once in a lifetime opportunity like bitcoin, Ill risk more than I can comfortably lose, bitcoin is hope, and I was not afraid of the spike.
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It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy. Reminds me very much of the $2 days after the $32 high. Of course that lasted for a looong time so maybe we could go lower. The bear feeding frenzy is a great indicator in my mind. I doubt we will legitimately go as low as $100 (I'm not counting them spike shenanigans) but if we do, I got orders that will double my BTC position, and *still* leave me with a negative cost basis overall... If we only go as low as $380 I only increase by about 5% though the spike was great, now we know that A; there is big support at 100. B; there was nothing significant in the way of 4k-8k bitcoins. I deem this means the larger players are/were taking a wait and see stance - bearish like you say. That spike is actually something we all wanted to see, that there is a force backing this crypto, that it is not subject to uncontrollable crashses to zero. So if you ask me it is clear that over the coming weeks the fall may take several days to explore 300-500 range. it will almost certainly not pass 100. Im sure the trend will resume before the end of the year. |
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do you happen to be watching the charts now?
I am often watching the charts, alas only for entertainment purposes. If I were inclined to do day tarding, I wouldn't be shorting right now. While I think there is (potentially a lot) room to go down, the risk/reward doesn't seem to be there. Unless you're desperately looking to accumulate more coins and have no fiat for it. Good luck! After buying at was it 582, I went on to sell at 670. It is going down. cheers for the feedback rpietila and eris, It helps when you cant think straight after 24 hours without sleep. easy to make a bad move when one is wary. |
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I believe that the down trend could last up to a week before testing lows at 400. I'm looking to buy at 380-480.
I do not believe that there will be a rush of incoming capital, nor an abundance of buy orders at any given price as investors stand to the sidelines in this critical time not to catch a falling knife.
I have said before that I would not be surprised if 266 was tested by EW analysis. It would not look at all surprising on the log chart.
I have noticed the frustration of customers depositing BTC on BTCe that is arriving late. I was affected by this but not as late. They want to sell obviously, and they will likely make a market order as the coin arrive out of frustration.
I think the recovery at lows could take 1 - 4 months, before we resume an uptrend towards 2000, ad maybe more.
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This is more a casual throw-away 'opinion' that I have come to without really focusing much attention on it.
Having been here a while, I've found they are the only opinions worth having Im sorry I snapped at you matt  will you ever forgive me? |
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You can't tell me you aren't trading this action!? Short sellers dream isn't it Nope. Decided that I didn't trust Bitfinex. A few days after I pulled my funds from the exchange they had that Bitcoin at $10'000 hack. Who knows how I would have been affected but I can get an easier nights sleep for not having funds anywhere in Bitcoin except USD on Bitstamp. It pains me that I can't short but I am getting a bit bored of trading and being glued to these stupid fucking charts 24/7, being woken from my sleep whenever the market is moving in a direction by Bitcoin dreams (seriously). What I am really wanting, is a good long opportunity where I can just sit back and leave it, and I hardly think I will need the instincts of a wolf for that. Bitcoin will slump down further and further, spiking down and bouncing up, providing great trading opportunities both long and short, before stagnating in a drawn out slumber, just as it did after the last two bubbles, and just like every crashed financial asset has behaved in history. I won't get the absolute bottom, but I will get much cheaper prices than what Bitcoin is now. Much much cheaper. Fair play. Seems we are on roughly the same page. I'm just gonna be buying with fresh fiat during these sour times, and holding what I already have, don't want to risk selling and having to buy back higher which I am notoriously good at (learned this way before BTC was in play). You have any thoughts on where we will bottom yet? Or are you waiting. For me I think obvious action will be around $450 (gox price - I think that *was* relevant back then, but maybe it was a tad lower on other exchanges) if that holds up then we might have found the bottom. It would be suspiciously close to a 68% fib retrace from ATH too... not that I believe in TA think these spikes to 100 are just noise created by freaks trying to cause a bit more fuss. (I also think if these players are doing that, then they are doing it for a reason and it will inevitably be followed by huge buying eventually as they will want to drive the price way above and beyond what it was to make good on their cheap acquisition) If it goes through ~$450 then I expect the previous high at $266 will be an interesting calling point. I don't think it'll go there though. That BTC she be crazy though... I gotta say, breaking 266 wouldn't look at all odd on the log chart. all the same, we would be aiming to the moon. As an Elliott Wave analyst I believe that this could be a fourth wave, if this is the case it would be necessary to bottom within the price range of the previous fourth wave of lower fractal, 266-120. It would be very fitting to me. for now, I just wanna get my coins out of any exchanges while this is so hot, so Ill be looking to buy at 380-480. |
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Today is the day all the buttcoin shills get rekt and my past posts are proven correct.
If you can't figure out that buying into a totally faith-based economy, with no regulation whatsoever, of a currency that doesn't even really exist, through a broker that has no compelling reason to give you any of your money back other than possible negative word-of-mouth, is a bad idea, then maybe you should really consider spending less time speculating on BTC stock and more time getting remedial education.
Master, teach us more! teach us, why is the price so high master? |
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Dafuq, that thing was real??
yup saw it happen with my own eyes, while i was adjusting my buy order....... |
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ROFLbump
lmao........ the floor is always stable. |
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