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$3.92 a coin for 1 block of 100.
(Offer valid for 1 week and whilst price (on gox) remains in $11.50-$12 trading range.)
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I strongly hope there will be a dip until then. I sold my bitcoins a little under $11 in anticipation of huge shitstorm as an aftermath of the Pirate's scam, but the market seems to be bullish.
Anyone who trades on bullshit like that deserves to get burned hard. You'll have to clarify, what exactly is it that one *should* trade on? Is there some ethical consideration that underpins what is essentially forex trading? |
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who buys an iPhone here? anyone that is even slightly technical, would avoid the iPhone like a plague.
The grown ups, that run businesses, and furnish employees with tools that get that job done and integrate painlessly with their technology stack. Sounds enterprisey! Heh its distinctly not (yet?). I think I might have got carried away with the words there  |
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who buys an iPhone here? anyone that is even slightly technical, would avoid the iPhone like a plague.
The grown ups, that run businesses, and furnish employees with tools that get that job done and integrate painlessly with their technology stack. Your opinion is all well and nice but don't confuse it with fact. |
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, $494 is a distant memory never to be revisited! and when spain inevitably goes to the wall, dragging the last two squealing pigs with them? I think that will be the catalyst for the next big down leg. We haven't finished with FTSE 3500 yet (that's DOW 6600 in US terms!) yet. I hardly think that *this time* the banks aren't lying about keeping the interest rates low... expect that 'surprise' interest rate sooner rather than later. Only once the eurozone has been thoroughly rinsed (and along with it all memories of anything bad that happened on the other side of the pond) can we get back to cheerleaders, and pom poms as the market enters another unsustainable multi year bull run! One in which I cannot wait to participate! |
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Still, its all anecdotal. It least you're just telling me what you prefer, instead of the OP who seems to base his opinion on usability around his dislike for a companies marketing practice. Yet it is I who should be pitied...
hey wait a minute. how'd i get dragged into this? i love Apple products. i'm typing this on my macbook. my whole rant about Apple has to do with its stock price and nothing else. and yes, i do think its topped. $500, here we come! oh an back on topic I agree i think its topped. I was a bit early with my call -not on here, IRL - I sold about 75% of my stock at $494, but I bought at ~$120 so I am not too disappointed. (OK my animal brain is pissed but I'm refusing to acknowledge it as selling was the sensible thing to do!!!!) |
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...and my counter opinion, after using linux (slackware, fedora, gentoo) for 10 years, is that it linux has its place (i run plenty of linux boxes at my company) and it is *not* on the desktop. osx virtually *is* linux, except the desktop works. gnome, kde, flux box, enlightenment. I understand that there is a lot of friction that stops people changing, but I am sure it isn't friction that made me choose (against my better judgement at the time) osx. I was the original windows hating linux zealot whilst I was using, quick to cover for its UI failings because it was *SO* much better than my windows experience in spite of them. Still, its all anecdotal. It least you're just telling me what you prefer, instead of the OP who seems to base his opinion on usability around his dislike for a companies marketing practice. Yet it is I who should be pitied... In other news, 10 crashes a day sounds very suspiciously dodgy however heavy you use it, my anecdotal experience is that safari has crashed about 10 times in the 2 years i use it. (daily, multiple windows, multiple tabs) Not trying to say safari is perfect - far from it! I get beach balls, and yes it certainly does crash, I'm just surprised how often for you. I haven't found ff/opera to be any better though (and in this case there is some friction, as no compelling reason to leave safari means i just tend to stick with it being as it's apple's native browser) I'd love a decent lightweight browser :/ mind you, open mtgoxlive and safari is hosed Just to clarify, I'm talking about Safari on the iPhone. Anything too ajaxy and it pukes. Forget flash, Apple doesn't want you to have it. I usually have 6-8 tabs open. It would be more, but 8 is the limit  . As for a decent lightweight browser, gnome's default browser Epiphany is pretty awesome, but I have no idea how hard it would be to get running on OSX. It uses WebKit for rendering (same as Safari), and it is very easy on memory/cpu. ah I see - i don't use safari heavy on my iPhone so I bow to your greater knowledge. I think safari on iPhone has crashed on my phone more than my desktop so I would say you are right! Cursory search for epiphany on osx suggests it *may* be possible but there doesn't seem to be a well travelled route, so I'll give that a miss - it would be the antithesis to why I left linux on the desktop in the first place if i started having to faff around with my core desktop apps! Thanks for the suggestion though! |
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Still, its all anecdotal. It least you're just telling me what you prefer, instead of the OP who seems to base his opinion on usability around his dislike for a companies marketing practice. Yet it is I who should be pitied...
hey wait a minute. how'd i get dragged into this? i love Apple products. i'm typing this on my macbook. my whole rant about Apple has to do with its stock price and nothing else. and yes, i do think its topped. $500, here we come! hehe sorry my use of OP was referring to person i quoted, i guess QP might have been better, sorry. please carry on  |
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...and my counter opinion, after using linux (slackware, fedora, gentoo) for 10 years, is that it linux has its place (i run plenty of linux boxes at my company) and it is *not* on the desktop. osx virtually *is* linux, except the desktop works. gnome, kde, flux box, enlightenment. I understand that there is a lot of friction that stops people changing, but I am sure it isn't friction that made me choose (against my better judgement at the time) osx. I was the original windows hating linux zealot whilst I was using, quick to cover for its UI failings because it was *SO* much better than my windows experience in spite of them. Still, its all anecdotal. It least you're just telling me what you prefer, instead of the OP who seems to base his opinion on usability around his dislike for a companies marketing practice. Yet it is I who should be pitied... In other news, 10 crashes a day sounds very suspiciously dodgy however heavy you use it, my anecdotal experience is that safari has crashed about 10 times in the 2 years i use it. (daily, multiple windows, multiple tabs) Not trying to say safari is perfect - far from it! I get beach balls, and yes it certainly does crash, I'm just surprised how often for you. I haven't found ff/opera to be any better though (and in this case there is some friction, as no compelling reason to leave safari means i just tend to stick with it being as it's apple's native browser) I'd love a decent lightweight browser :/ mind you, open mtgoxlive and safari is hosed |
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Guys, read up on Thorstein Veblen and conspicuous consumption. It's an about 100 year old economic concept asking for the ratio between the actual use value versus prestige value (for social distinction) of a product. Basically, do you need a car to take you to work, or do you need a car to show off infront of your neighbors. Only, it works much more subtle than that. People will want to belong and this is how the entire western society ends up in debt, totally unneccessary which is the worst part. No wonder China owns all our asses these days. Apple users will continue to use Macs/Iphones etc for social distinction and to balance their feelings of inferiority towards their peers. And once you bought it, even if you're aware of what's really going on, it's only natural (there even is a study for this) to defend one's decision with "reasoning" even if you bought something useless. Now, Iphones aren't useless, but other brands will do the same trick except the prestige part. Also, what's so different to China when everyone in a social group (students e.g.) use the same product. It only shows that this generation grows up totally adapted. What about individualism if everyone uses the same brand? Fact is, we live in a commercial society where people happily pay for the right amount of prestige i.e. conspicuous consumption. In so far, Apple has understood how marketing (and people) work extremely well. That's exactly why I despite them and feel pity for Iphone users (many who probably can't even afford to pay for the phone other than in 24 monthly installments) while potentially having no money for rent, healthy food, or the education of their children. Cheers! Wow. Your opening might be true, but the hyperbole you follow it with seriously undermines it. For sure I love the prestige value, but claiming that is the only thing that sets apple products apart from the competition is at best just opinionated. My counter opinion is, that the build quality of mac's trounces the competition. The usability of osx and iOS sets them apart from windows, linux / android wp7. I have used them all. I can handily afford the cash needed to buy apple products, yeah they are expensive in money terms, but they make my life easier and my job easier. Your opinion on whether that is true doesn't change anything. Regardless you've handily (attempted to, at least) explained away any of my opinions about quality - according to you I'm simply defending my purchase with invalid reasoning? Sure whatever you think. I'm more interested to know what your take is on people who are compelled to denigrate other's choices, despite apparently not having any clue how others needs may differ from theirs. I know why I'm posting, it could my piss when people talk crap. Why were you posting? I own AAPL shares too (since ~$120), maybe I bought those to balance my feelings of inferiority towards others... |
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So will the gold bugs start fleeing the ship and buy some BTC?  No way. Gold bugs are all about the physical. Their 40 year scenarios involve a global meltdown and general SYSTEM FAILURE, a "gold" that requires a functioning internet and power system would be laughable to them. Then they have a perspective that is a bit sketchy... Unless they think that gold settlements can be accomplished without a functioning Internet and power system—perhaps via a convoy of Humvees... Yes, laughable. the 40 year global meltdown systemic failure goldbugs hoard bullion! the hedging against semi-hyperinflation goldbugs are happy with there electronic gold, and there protective puts. I think a bit of each is nice to have in any portfolio, along with your bitcoin my views haven't changed. i think gold/silver is a relic of the past and Bitcoin will assume its place as a new standard. i think gold drops to $400.
$400 gold? That would be some payday, aye. |
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@Matthew N. Wright i'm only doing this to help the robbed people out for Christ sake
You're misguided. We are already helping the 'robbed people' out by asking questions. You are making statements and asking people to break other laws just to make you happy. You're as misguided now as you were when you filed a police report because Zhou Tong didn't answer you quickly enough. Being honest is important. I am completely honest that Zhou Tong dropped the ball by ignoring our advice to be collocated instead of using the magical cloud he loves so much. I support him and believe since he is covering the costs himself, he has learned his lesson and will move on. He's a bright kid who just needs some polishing. I am not advocating secrecy, I am advocating common sense. What your asking for doesn't help anyone. What you think is necessary isn't even necessary. Yet, you're not listening to anyone and you can't give a good reason. Why would anyone support you? Start asking questions and giving reasons instead of making demands and statements against things. putting my reputation in line with people like you calling me names.
Your reputation is not in line with me. You do not work with me. I had held on to you against the recommendation of every-single-participating-party in the Bitcoin Magazine because I didn't believe it was fair to judge you on a single instance of irresponsible behavior (regardless of how large and idiotic it was) for filing a worthless police report against Zhou and bragging about it on the forums. Today however, before this thread was started, I removed you from the magazine completely for continuing to be over-the-top, ignoring facts, and just pushing pushing pushing, like a wannabe cop with no jurisdiction. Which side you on Matthew ? Gavin, SLush, Zhoutong and other bitcoiners or the robbers side ?
Slush and ZhouTong are both in the DCAO with me. Gavin might be too. Other Bitcoiners do business with me. The robber might too (who knows!). I am not on any ones side. I am on the side of common sense, as always. You are not making any sense. Your demands, even if provided, would help no one and hurt people in the process. Your continued denial of this shows your ignorance, your continued lack of self explanation and clarification shows your stubbornness and your continued self important vagaries about how you're going to help when people who are actually helping right now don't even need what you're asking for shows me that you're so out of the loop you should just be ignored. Why am I responding to you then? Because it's in my nature to care, as obnoxious and vicious as I come across, it is in my nature to never ignore people who need a good punch in the face. I would do it to you, I would do it to my own father. Humans are humans and we all need a good check once in a while. This is your check. That isn't much info at all and already public, you wouldn't know who deposited which coins only MtGox, but they already know that, right ?
Trust the powers that be or stop supporting them. You are not a shareholder of MtGox. You are not a recognized legal official. You are not representing anyone right now. If you are curious and want to "do your part", then start asking questions and stop asking people to do things for you like you are an all-knowing investigator, ready to file your weekly police reports! Help me out dude, damn it.
Trust me, I am. You just don't realize it yet. well said. it's cliched but "keep calm and carry on" seems to be sage advice right now. bad stuff happens all the time. its how you deal with it that counts, looks like bitcoinica/zhou is showing exactly what it/he's made of. good work. keep it up, I'm not withdrawing anything. I don't thank anything has fundamentally changed, and if anything this is a good thing because this can only lead to more security. |
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I was saying stuff like this before I even starting the service. I hate seeing people throwing around these 'obvious' strategies that have been tried so many times in the past by every trader in every market; it always 'always' ends in tears. I would actually say my last two posts here were pretty non-biased plain old good advice which anybody that has actually traded for a living will tell you. so, in addition to my previous post, to make money in any market including bitcoin, you must either put the 'time' in to learn how to technically trade the market, or you put the 'money' in to pay someone who did put the 'time' in to guide you. Don't be stupid and bet your money in the market like you would in a casino. As in a casino, the house always wins. And surely you have no vested interest in recommending this, right? "Fooled by randomness" N.N. Taleb. If you have read that you should know for sure that he (NNT) is not right, neither are you, and neither am I. Once you understand this, only then can you trade. (but of course you don't trade...) |
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I am long term accumulate and hold, so if BTC is destroyed I lose anyway. I am ready for that.
If we assume I am ready to accept catastrophic failure then I can build a ladder big enough that it takes the collapse of BTC market to really screw things up. (my ladder goes down to around 0.14 cents a coin at which point I stop buying and have several thousand BTC) If I subsequently get zhoutonged on my bitcoinica holding then I lose 50% of my dollar investment. The other coins will just sit in my wallet perhaps they become virtually worthless the lottery ticket buyer in me will probably keep accumulating though!
This is my worst case scenario, I only focus on that because thats what is important to take care of. Profits can sort themselves out.
My ladder is tall and pretty fine grained. The recent (relative) stability if swings between 4 and 7 don't make much difference to me, I'm not here to day trade. My average price is about $3.63/BTC and 63% of that is real coins (i.e. not on bitcoinica) and my current bitcoinica zhoutong price is negative $9.59!!! so we have a way to go before I can even get zhoutonged. I also have more dollars 'written off' to bring that down. Those dollars are also ready to be lost if it so be.
So I am pretty comfortable with my risk, I am happy that if BTC collapses I lose everything. That's ok the money is already spent and I don't miss it anymore.
What's interesting is if BTC really takes off, what I could buy with my BTC and not how many USD's I could trade it for.
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and another thing backtesting shmacktesting. the market is rarely if ever identical. forward test, see how many scenarios you go broke under to figure out risk, then compare this to your potential rewards. Thats all you can ever do.
Assume you are going to lose, and make sure that loss doesn't wipe you out. If you win, rinse and repeat.
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When the daily hourly (this is true for daily also, but the charts are in hourly intervals) RSI touches/passes through 30/70 levels, it usually means:
- the market is pretty certain on a direction of there the price will go, so we have an uptrend/downtrend
- after this first touch with 30/70 there will be a spike in opposite direction of the prevailing trend
- after this spike (if it occurs), the trend will resume and sometimes go even higher/lower than before
- and finally, when RSI exits 0-40 / 60-100 range, a reversal is likely
Study the chart above to see these correlations. Using RSI alone would be dangerous probably, but in conjunction with other indicators (like the EMA and MACD on the chart) it can be quite useful.
About current market situation: These indicators tell me that there will be another dip down. RSI has nearly touched 30 once, but it didn't pass through. MACD is on negative and EMA is going down with current price staying below it.
Call me old fashioned but thats far too formulaic. RSI just tells you if, relative to the period you are considering - hourly, daily etc if there have been more people buying or selling than before. This gives you an idea if a market os overbought, or over sold. It doesn't tell you the market is definitely going to reverse, because markets are irrational and can carry on going crazy in either direction. The decision to buy or sell comes from considering a variety of factors. To me RSI just defines buying or selling opportunities (buy when its oversold, sell when its overbought) the decision as to whether to take a given opportunity must still be made. If you do trade, you then need to have the balls (and int the case of bitcoinica, the leverage) to see the trade through. The tricky part comes when RSI moves but price doesn't. You then face the difficult decision of whether to cut your losses, because if you bought at RSI <30 and you are subsequently sat on a loss at RSI >70 (and the longer the period, the stronger the potential reversion to the mean) you are probably going to want to take that loss, for fear of incurring a bigger one. Thats hard, because nobody likes crystallising losses. |
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I don't know about you but I've always thought that exchanges will be the way authorities can have some control over Bitcoin. It's crucial for its long term survival. So far only Mt. Gox has been serious about this and has been targeted but other exchanges will follow eventually.
This doesn't kill Bitcoin's anonymity, no one forces you to acquire bitcoins from a major exchange. There are already a number of ways you can buy bitcoins from people directly. As more and more exchanges add these requirements, it's likely that alternative ways of acquiring bitcoins become more commonplace.
From my perspective all of this is very good development and it reduces fears that Bitcoin might some day be announced illegal. If that happened, all exchanging would be person to person and that is where any larger potential Bitcoin has, dies.
This is exactly right. Bitcoinica is a place where you can use bitcoin to trade on leverage, and if it requires ID then so be it - you have the choice whether to indulge or not. I see this as analogous to cash. If you want to open a broker account, or do forex trading etc then you are likely going to have to identify yourself to the brokerage. If you just want to hoard, spend and remain anonymous then you can use good old cash. The benefit over cash is that you have X number of other ways of moving huge amounts of bitcoin around internationally and virtually anonymously. Whereas if you try an take a suitcase full of dollars out of the country you can bet seem questions are gonna be asked! |
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You have to admit there is some friction between Bitcoinica and Gox that probably would not be there on a native exchange. The way things are set up now there are too many points of failure. As things stand I do not have confidence in my ability to reasonably, accurately characterize my risk on Bitcoinica.
Today being an excellent case-in-point. If everyone wants to short leveraged, Bitcoinica has to use its reserves to counter the leverage and always makes sure the shorters lose. It HAS to bet against its own customers, which is why we see these large swings. If you look at BTC days destroyed, it seems like an old miner could be manipulating Bitcoinica itself by continually flushing it of its reserves. no. it uses reserves until it has none, then it puts a starfish there, because there is no html entity for a fish. |
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