Meh.  Smells like a purity test to me.

It's a paradox that we have a censorship resistant trust minimized asset but we get twitchy when people who's ideas we don't like use it.

I think the whole Crypto-Twitter Saylor worship event was somewhat embarrassing in the first place.  But at the same time the dude GETS bitcoin.  I would not be surprised if he is saying the above things out of one side of his mouth.  He is in a fairly precarious position as the de facto mouthpiece of a publicly traded company.  Some things he can and cannot say.

And he is right about the bit with trusted layer two like Square.  And lightning is a hobbyist platform today.  Square/CashApp is an actual working product people use.  And before you sling at me too hard... I run 2 lighting nodes.

It's a question that has been bounced around for quite a while.  Monero did an interesting tweak in making the issuance decent smooth instead of stepped.  But the repeating hype cycle definitely is an interesting idea.  On purpose?  Satoshi a genius or lucky or crazy?

On the other hand it seems it should diminish in magnitude over time as half of half of half becomes vanishingly smaller.

Certainly not saying it is not possible.  It most certainly is.  I just feel like any serious dip is gonna get bought fairly aggressively.

The dynamics are currently interesting, and not like what we have seen in the past.  I am going to speculate what might be happening under the hood at this time.

-The retail exchange volumes are up, but not much yet.
-At the same time we are becoming aware of a likely large increase in OTC market volumes.  Does anyone have access to ANY of the OTC trading desk volumes?

I speculate that the OTC market is most likely fairly lit up.  And if I was a player with big money I would do the following:  I would make large purchases on the OTC markets as often as I could, and I would be strategically market dumping portions of these purchases on the retail platforms to suppress retail price, and therefore also control the OTC price since I would imagine it is connected.

Done well this could create a stable price at which to load up as much OTC bitcoin as I possibly could.

If this is being done, then it is going to multiply the fuel in the eventual rocket by bottling up all the momentum that the OTC purchases were not making in real time.  Effectively it is hedging big purchases with a short on the retail platforms.  It ends up being levered to a degree by the fact that retail volumes (at least for trade sizes) are smaller and it would not take much to move, or suppress the market.

Even if that strategy is just a paranoid fantasy, the rest about the retail and OTC markets is true without a doubt.  And even if the big players are not manipulating the whole market by the retail shops, then we will STILL see the eventual intersection of demand with supply in a magnitude never seen before.  But the fuse is lit.  And the smart money can see this (MSTR LOL).  Don;t you think they are going to do everything in their power to delay the inevitable?

And by my back of the napkin calculations there is no way for this particular market to sustain it's current course for very much longer.  Eventually the early whales will be done selling.  I wonder what Chamath is doing.  I think he is too smart to sell much.  On other other hand he's definitely in the green on his purchase.

Personally I think a drop to 14k is not very likely unless it is purposefully dumped there by the biggest players.  And though the motivation to do so is outlined as well as I can above, I just do not think that strategy is going to be able to last much longer.  The only thing that scares me are the big Central Banks and their pet governments.  They will have an incentive to use regulatory powers to crush the market while they do their late accumulation, and then "come around" loosening those regs once they have loaded up.

Interesting times.

The whole time bitcoiners have wrung their hands over all the speculative attacks.

Quantum computing, forks, bugs, 51% attacks, nation state bans, frauds, and so on.

Then one day a bitcoiner launched the first serious speculative attack against the current system.

Welcome to the black hole gentlemen.

Yeah.  If I had ever actually collected any Bitcoin, I would definitely be working on the whole "I don't have any/much bitcoin anymore" narrative for sure.

That would be a lot of trouble... the bright side of not really having any, I guess.

LOL>  I figure firing that with anything bigger than 7.5 would tear my shoulder off.  I bet it gets hot as hell.

Interesting little low volume run.  I can never really figure out how XMR is going...

This is actually pretty cool looking... and it's on some decent volume so far as well (which I did not show)

See?  I was RIGHT!

Well it was going up there for a moment.. then... poof.   I must have jinxed it.

Man..  I never thought of rhyming a haiku.  Sort of turns it into a high brow Japanese limerick.

You know how it goes...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin

I do suppose I really should have bought some along the way...  Hindsight is 20/20.

They are not the only one.  We have multiple single poi.. oh nevermind.

But Chamath own a Satoshi amount of bitcoin, and therefore is rooting for the global collapse we are in the middle of.  He's another one of those seingle points.

As are a few of us here.  

I, for one, hope to have a whole bitcoin before the end of next year.

I am "fixing" this with this post... but knowing MasterLuc and his particular favorite imagery he would have liked to see this.

Because this time we are right gaddmmit and you stupid druggie millineal assholes are gonna finally see that you were idiots all along!

Tee-hee.

Quads.  And feck it.  Let's melt a couple faces out there.  P Schiff's would be a good start.

FWIW, I like looking at both XMRBTC and XMRUSD.  I think the former is more important, but I think they are both useful to see.