Is this correct: this rally was started by a whale buyer on Bitstamp, then Huobi and BTC-e went into panic buying, but they are still struggling to catch up with Bitstamp?
Yes, and no. You're oversimplifying. The road for this rally was probably paved in the previous days (basically, since the 400 bottom). I misread the market up until the day before yesterday as well, and was too reluctant to admit I was wrong until this morning. As far as the *boom* we're seeing now goes: I guess you could say that a 1.2k buy at around 0:45 on stamp tonight sparked it. There was no comparable volume on Huobi, so it's fair to say that spark came from Bitstamp. Then again, China picked up the volume during the coming hours, pretty much in synch with stamp, so it's not a huge delay either. Hope people remember this when they keep on harping about "bearstamp", and how traders on there only follow trends, never setting them  EDIT: 700, here we come again |
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Looks almost like the battle for 700 might start today.
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My $666 resistance came into play perfectly. ($660)
That's probably all for a couple weeks now.
I think you might be misreading the market right now. We will fall back eventually, sure, but we're trading at around 655 right now with the highest volume since the 400 bottom, and you think we won't see 660 again for weeks? I doubt that. |
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Mat, don't get back into the old paranoid habits. This is not, or at least not predominantly Ukraine news driving up the price. Doesn't matter how long the current upwards motion will last, but for now it's clear it has some power, right? The first bit was plain old buying pressure and confidence in the price level above 400, then above 500, and the remaining meters... well, they're pure old "I hope I don't miss the train" reactions of the market. Feedback loops. Circlejerk. Don't fall into the newbie trap of having to explain everything that happens in terms of world events. I'm not saying to ignore them, but whatever the events are, they need to fall on fertile ground, and by the looks of it, that's some mighty fertile ground right now. (went long earlier today, btw. took an unpleasant hit to my total btc, but nothing too bad.)
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Well, I bragged when I made profits earlier this year, so it seems fair to own up to the losses as well. Bought back in earlier today at a loss compared to the preceding trade pairs, to the tune of -61 BTC. Some Days You Eat the Bear... and so on.
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Who panic bought??  I didn't panic buy; I made the preplanned decision to buy when the downtrend broke. wow, for 3 days nobody dumps at 550 $, and thats a downtrend broke. so naive to think that. This is exactly what I thought during the recovery in 2013. "It's only going up because nobody is dumping". All the way from $66 to $200. I have told myself many times now to ignore that thought. The lack of dumping indicates some change in supply in the background which you can't understand. Said it more than once, I'm still quite skeptical we broke the February downtrend, but the signs are there to at least give us a fighting chance. That said, the lack of dumps so far isn't much of a point... during the early 2013 bubble/pop cycle, the reversal arguably started on July 7. Took until July 18 until some whale decided it's time to get out. So there's easily a bit of a lag possible. (btw, whatever that whale was doing, he never got a chance to buy back cheaper. he/she either cashed out, or bought back higher later on) |
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Ok boring, I am going to sleep, I have to wake up early for the job, Bitcoin do something while I am sleeping and let price alarms wake me up instead of job waking alarms  Ah, the face of my girlfriend when I tell her "hey, I'm sorry, tonight's one of *those* nights... I need to set an alarm". it's like her expression says: "I hate being woken in the middle of the night... but if it pays the future swimming pool... *shrug*" |
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For someone who keeps insisting he's just now at Trading 101, you sure seem to have a clear idea of how to insure yourself against market reactions you consider less likely than the ones you're betting on dominantly.
I can't say I understand how what you describe would work. It seems to me that if your "hedge" (the leveraged short) is sufficiently big to cover a loss in your main investment, then it should also be big enough to substantially reduce your profit in case the main scenario takes place and your hedge is at a loss. Care to run it down for me? Doesn't have to be the actual numbers obviously.
Say I have 20K on Bistamp and 10K on Bitfinex. Say I am confident that Bitcoin is going to back down to lower 500 and middle 400 ranges. Say I shorted 10K USD, leveraged up to 20K USD worth of Bitcoins on Bitfinex. Say my buy-ins are all triggered on average at 470. But shock horror, I called it horribly wrong and Bitcoin hits $240, bounces up to $380 then started trending down leaving me with what was 20K USD worth of Bitcoins. On my long trade, I lose. I am around $150 down on each Bitcoin. However, on my leveraged short trade I win. I shorted at $575 (tried to get in at $579 but the bots weren't having it). In such a scenario, I take profits on my short but I lose on my long and possibly more profits on my short than on my long (depending on how bad it is or isn't). If on the otherhand, my trades come good, I get in at an average of 470, Bitcoin goes down to 430, but bounces right back out to $500 levels where it commences a clear recovery uptrend. Because I am totally negligent and have forgotten all about my short trade, worst comes to the worst and I get my short triggered at some $15 USD above my short sell price..... On my short trade, I take a minor loss, but I don't care about that cos I am seriously up on my long trade. In the worst case scenario, Bitcoin goes to $10. My whole 20K of capital on Bitstamp is practically wiped out. Fkn disaster! Except that I can buy back 20 BTC at just $10 and keep the rest........oh shit....wait a minute......that leaves me with just 10K, and not 20K like I had before! Damn, I knew it sounded too good to be true! But still, it keeps my arse well covered and allows me to take a long gamble on a flash crash that will likely occur when I am in my bed without the devastating consequences of mis-reading the magnitude of the drop entirely.Of course, what might happen is that Bitcoin retraces to just above my buy in tranches and my stop gets triggered on bounce, and I take a loss. Or perhaps I am totally fkn wrong and Bitcoin is due for a sudden surge of buying power which will cause a break out confirming the head and shoulders at 530 - 400 - 535, in which case my stop loss will be triggered, and I take a small loss. However, all I can do is trade to the best of what my common sense and more importantly, my intuition tells me. It tells me we are going right back down their, but at this point, I can't detect that I have any Bitcoin fear. Infact, I am starting to feel quietly positive about for first time in a long time, although I can sense the fear in the air. Been trading in a very narrow range on ultra low volume for quite some time now. When the action comes, it should prove to be swift and all signs are pointing to down action at the time being. Got it. The bolded part is what I didn't get til now: you're essentially hedging in the same direction as your main trades go, and you're willing to accept the risk of a minor reduction in profits (your buys get filled, but you have to close your shorts higher than you opened them), but it protects your fiat value while allowing you to go long in case you caught a falling knife that carried too much momentum. Much appreciated. |
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those, who sold in expectation of further down trend and sitting now on fiat may feel quite nervous. there is a lot of coins waiting to be sold on higher rate and in case of any upward movement we may see some panic buying and those who sold will be buying exactly same coins back on higher rate.
[...] This piece of TA 101 speculating on inverse head and shoulders break out was only relevant yesterday. That chance has gone. The price trends further and further away from the $580 resistance, on ultra low volume. On Bitstamp it seems to be mostly bots trading, desperately trying to rig the numbers that go into everyone's favourite indicators in order to hopefully influence indicator based market behaviour....but the market isn't having it. We are trending lower, the volume has been abysmal and it is not so much a case that sellers are refusing to sell, but that buyers are simply not interested at these prices, in these market conditions. This can mean only one thing. It is no longer a matter of if we will go down, but when, and how far. There are strong technical and fundamental indicators that provide a pretty good argument for both $400 being the bottom, and for $400 being a mere Gox inspired outlier on a long term bear trend that is set to continue. I am putting my bets on a higher low somewhere in $400 - $500. After this I am speculating that Bitcoin will go onto make a temporary recovery, taking out upper bear trend line that has been with us for the past month. But plenty much more experienced Bitcoiners than me are adamant that we will be seeing lower lows in the near future and will be betting big on it. I can afford to have my buy-in tranches where they are as I can't lose. Even if if Bitcoin goes considerably lower and only rebounds up to the point of my lowest bid, I will have a leveraged short position that will cover me from any losses I take from aiming too high. What precautions are you taking to protect your USD? For someone who keeps insisting he's just now at Trading 101, you sure seem to have a clear idea of how to insure yourself against market reactions you consider less likely than the ones you're betting on dominantly. I can't say I understand how what you describe would work. It seems to me that if your "hedge" (the leveraged short) is sufficiently big to cover a loss in your main investment, then it should also be big enough to substantially reduce your profit in case the main scenario takes place and your hedge is at a loss. Care to run it down for me? Doesn't have to be the actual numbers obviously. |
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The longer the bear market carries on and we're in this downtrend the fear is not gone, it just sets in more as people question its resilience.
Never ever seen the volume so low. Basically only bot trades on Stamp doing their utmost to keep the spot price nailed up. Sellers are point blank refusing to meet buyers.
Seems like half of the market is convinced that a break out from here is imminent and the other (and probably heavier) half is convinced of a further correction or even a continuation of current bear trend with a lower low.You know, now that you left your rage phase behind you, you start sounding downright insightful. You should keep an eye on that. Seriously though, that's an excellent summary of the market right now, IMO. |
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Yeah, what solarguy already said: Mat, stop fucking up your trendlines. They're shaky grounds as it is (I use them myself, so I know how much they can resemble reading tea leaves), but once you declare random candle wicks "outliers" or some shit you're really giving up on any and all rigor.
It is true, when it comes to TA, I am complete novice (hence TA 101) and it also true that I am building my TA 101 interpretation on what I intuitively feel lies around the corner for Bitcoin. For the first time in a long time, I just don't have the Bitcoin fear that has made me a bear since the second $1000 - $1100 range (I never even knew what a double top was back then). I think Bitcoin right about now will prove a good investment in the medium term. The position that I am taking, is that right now, I am shorting Bitcoin on Bitfinex. On Bitstamp where I keep the vast majority of my powder, I have buy in tranches from $505 down to $460 which would be down in the oversold range of the current long term trend, which I feel is due to reverse. If however, we can get above 580 peaking at around 600 range before testing 580 as a support. Then I will be prepared to admit defeat on both my short and my sub $400 buy in tranches but acknowledge that a head n shoulders has occurred with two shoulders at $530 range (which we hit yesterday evening) and buy in on trend reversal confirmation. If am totally 100% wrong, and my sub $400 buy-ins get triggered and Bitcoin crashes through $400 and into $300 range, then I should have good opportunity to cover my ass on the bounce. I will also have an leveraged short position which should also hedge me against any heavy losses should it transpire that my instincts on this one are wrong. As I have said many times, I do believe in lower lows before any ATHs are found....just can't bring myself to believe that any lower low is just lingering around the corner. I see. Looks like, minus the shorting, we're pretty much aligned, almost scarily aligned. *logs into stamp, raises bids by 0.5 USD* |
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Yeah, what solarguy already said: Mat, stop fucking up your trendlines. They're shaky grounds as it is (I use them myself, so I know how much they can resemble reading tea leaves), but once you declare random candle wicks "outliers" or some shit you're really giving up on any and all rigor.
That said, your actual point, I could maybe agree with. Said it myself, I at least see a proper chance now for a mid term reversal (up to a month, maybe longer). But for some reason, I'm more cautious than I ever was. To the point where I'm putting my declared goal, my holy goal, of unconditionally maximizing my coin stash (what rampion called the "land-grabbing phase") on the backburner.
My method, in the most general terms, is what I would probably call "pattern searching momentum trader"... meaning, I don't try to really predict trends, but I don't just follow them either... I try to jump onto them earlier than others, by also throwing in a bit of pattern recognition. Despite that, I don't give a shit about MACDs... or rather: they don't tell me anything important. The fast MACDs don't tell me with any kind of certainty whether a reversal is about to take place or not, and the slow ones confirm trends that I've already spotted long before.
What I'm getting at is: I'll wait it out this time. Not all in cash, hell no, but with a good share in USD still. My confirmation will come from a few 6h patterns I'm looking for, together with some volume metrics. The price chart looks okay, slightly more compatible with an impending upwards breakout rather than a continued decline, but the volume analysis doesn't look very good.
So honestly, I'm getting a bit tired of putting so much time into btc, that's why I decided to wait it out this time instead of hedging my bets by trading all the smaller swings before a mid term resolution. If it resolves upwards, fine. I'll buy in fast enough after I get a bit of confirmation. Not 580 already, like you seem to think, more in the 600 range. But it takes more than price action to convince me, volume should play along. And I'll take that hit to my coin stash if I must... I increased it by more than a fair share anyway earlier in this bear market anyway, so it's time I give back a bit to the market I guess. I'm such a saint, aren't I.
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so my intial investment was X and I hold Y coins and X/Y gives me $55.71. you know what is the funny part, ok I still consider my self an early adopter, I didnt buy for lower than $1, but I bought a part of my coins between $10-15 and most between $80-120, but the funniest part is that I was trading and cashing out profits. so if X is my initial investment and Y is the number of coins I hold and Z is the FIAT profits I cashed out this means X-Z/Y = ? if this is what you want to know, guess what, that gives me -700, which means that each coin I hold has already generated $700. really interesting, I never thought about that, you made me think about stoping trading and not caring about the price dropping more.... Yes, that's what Pruden pointed out. If you made a profit in total, it it possible to sell coins to the point where the remaining (possibly fraction of) coins have a negative cost. That's okay, I didn't set up the question to make "gaming" it impossible, I was just trying to gauge where the forumites (or rather: the subset that votes) entered the game, approximately. Then again, the fact that I didn't mention you can have a negative cost shows I didn't really think it through initially. I guess the whole simplistic way I asked my question really breaks apart for those who (a) daytrade a lot and (b) successfully so. Once you made a profit in total and cashed out more than your initial investment, the question really becomes more: "how much do you earn, per time x, by trading". So the question I asked really only makes sense for buy&holders, and more specifically: those b&h investors that didn't cash out their initial investment yet. |
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I have bought (and sold) bitcoin hundreds of times. Which time are you referring to?
on average It's still a difficult question because I'm not holding an 'average' of different buys - I am daytrading. I guess I could say that my cost basis based on my original investment is now $2. My first purchase was at $100. I know, I know... I'm asking a question based on some simplifying assumptions. But keep in mind many in here are (mostly) buy&holders, and I wanted to address both traders and holders. The question I asked was therefore: take the coins you *currently* hold, and the money you paid for them, i.e. total money sent to exchanges minus money currently sitting (as USD) on the exchange. |
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BLinked and missed it...
552 wall: eaten or pulled?
eaten  In other words: things are getting interesting :D |
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BLinked and missed it...
552 wall: eaten or pulled?
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I initially bought at 140$ but it's just bit over 1.5$ now :)
If true, that's pretty impressive. It's as if you would have started buying in in, what, 2011? I probably cut my buy-in price in half through trading, and I was pretty happy with that until you posted :D |
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Take the total amount of USD (or USD equivalent) you put into BTC, take your total amount of coins held right now, and calculate how much you paid on average per coin. Then enter the value above.
Why?
Cause it'll be knowledge, and knowledge sexy, that's why.
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552 wall on stamp still waiting. Will it get nibbled at this time?
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Admittedly i have a huge chunk in blockchain.info and then i also have an Electrum wallet with another chunk and then an insignificant amount on a computer using the regular bitcoin qt app, and $200-300 on stamp.
Ive been considering moving my blockchain.info chunk to my electrum wallet. Watching gox vanish should be a smack to the back of my head to move my shit off blockchain.info, but im not worried! Ill move it sooner than later tho.
Allow me to ask: how is blockchain.info more convenient than electrum? I use the latter, and to me it seems it offers an absolute maximum in convenience, with very little compromise to security, while blockchain.info seems to offer no additional benefits, but lots of additions insecurity. But maybe I miss something about blockchain.info. EDIT: since it's a web wallet I guess you can use it for making purchases when you're on the go. sthg that is harder with electrum. |
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