...snip...
as for comparing BTC to classical markets -- why should there be resemblance? i rely on the data that makes up the history of the BTC market, because that is the only data we have to go on to get a feel for how the BTC market will behave in the future. bitcoincharts is my favorite site haha
This bit stood out to me. Before bitcoinica I would have agreed. The way the bitcoin market behaved was whack because there were no stop losses orders, no shorting. These two things are pretty fundamental to driving some of the price patterns in classical markets.
I still think that this market can throw up some surprises, but as any market can I don't think that in itself is surprising!
The main threats are big players shoving the market in ways that no amount of charting can predict. Provided you are prepared to lose your entire position if/when that happens then you don;t have anything to worry about.
Going all in on any move, is crazy even in classical markets in bitcoin, over time its a guaranteed blow up.