The dotcom bubble was at $6.7 billion at its height, crypto bubble was at $2.4 billion, Bitcoin alone was at $1.18 billion. Bitcoin had multiple bubbles in the past and people thought that it's dead when the price crashed by 80%, and yet here we are, trading at above the last ATH. You can only say that Bitcoin as a whole was a bubble if it crashes back to the lows that weren't seen for many years.

The big question is WHEN you buy. If you buy in the middle of a bull run, fail to sell at the top, then the price crashes below your buy price and you're still holding, then you're missing out on the gains that you could have made if you bought later. You'd still be making profits in very long run, most likely, but it shouldn't be that hard to find the bottom or close to the bottom of a cycle. Consider this a slightly advanced for of "buy and hodl".

Such events are generally priced-in weeks and months before they happen, and the price can actually slightly go down on the day they happen - "buy the rumor, sell the news". And look at the ETH/BTC chart, it's already in decline, ETH peaked at 0.081 BTC and now it's 0.063 BTC, it's very likely entering bear market and only going to slip further. And altcoin season in general is gone now, the only hope to see it again is if Bitcoin resumes a bull run and establishes a new ATH.

All meme coins are ponzis. It's clear that they have no value, because no one will actually use them as currency or whatever, but people buy them, because they hope to sell them to bigger fools. Add here some centralization of supply, where creators are the first to benefit from this scam, and you have almost all characteristics of a ponzi scheme. This meme "investng" is nothing more than participating in a game of hot potato, the last one to hold the shitcoin will lose everything.

Ignore the 4chan rumors, they can't be verified and could just be a method to manipulate the market.

It's normal to feel confused, because these are very uncertain times for Bitcoin market. It's on crossroads before bull and bear markets, and no one really knows what will it choose. The coming news could influence the market greatly, and no one, aside from insiders, can predict them. There could be more government adoption or government bans, there could be institutional buys or institutional dumps.

I also believe that El Salvador's move create some risk for Bitcoin, now that the US and IMF and other organizations started getting worried and looked closely at Bitcoin, but this was a necessary step. I think the chance of a huge negative reaction, like outlawing Bitcoin by some countries, is not that high, they could have done it years ago.

I think even if Bitcoin was dominated by pro traders, it would still be prone to bubbles, just with smaller magnitude. Bitcoin is not a stock or a bond, there's no way to calculate its value, it's all just guesswork. How much value should be added to Bitcoin based on El Salvador adoption? 5%? 20%? There's no answer to that, it's just feelings. Add here the novelty factor that is still present, as Bitcoin is still having "first times" - first wave of institutional adoption, first time legal tender, and there's even more reason why the price is so subjective.

Maybe not a lot people can afford 1 Bitcoin, but they can afford 0.01 Bitcoin, and it looks way better than 1,000,000 satoshis - 3 digits vs 7 digits. And I think everyone will just use the USD price anyway, because Bitcoin is so volatile, so phrase like "I paid for it $100 in Bitcoin" would be way more common than "I paid for it 250,000 satoshis on June 14 2021".

I find it really pathetic that miners and Saylor feel the need to answer to Elon Musk, as if he's some sort of king that decides the fate of Bitcoin. Because I guarantee there would be no "Bitcoin Mining Council." if Musk didn't get involved with Bitcoin, so it's clear that there was never an objective need for this. If a billionaire troll has so much influence, then what will happen if governments start making demands to miners?

You can't just easily target Bitcoin nodes, there's no list of all Bitcoin nodes, many nodes are unreachable so there's even no reliable way to count them. And Bitcoin nodes communicate with each other strictly through Bitcoin protocol, they don't send each other random files. So, the only way to spread malware is if there's some bug in Bitcoin code that would allow remote code execution by putting payloads in block or transaction data. But it's extremely unlikely that such bug exists, and even if it does, it's not feasible to infect all node. And the biggest thing, if you start altering blockchain or otherwise breaking consensus, everyone will instantly notice.

It's still early to draw conclusions, and it's likely that a big move will come after this sideways trading in 30-40k range. Either we'll slip even further, or the bull run will reignite. This crash already makes this bull run not like the previous bull runs, so it's time to stop looking at the past to make predictions about our future. Sooner or later it was bound to break, Bitcoin can't grow exponentially based on just FOMO and hype.

I think it's not as simple as "coins go to exchange = dump, coins go out = pump". As you can see from that chart, both the price and balance on exchanges were increasing for many years, it's only recently a sort of negative correlation has started, and it's still too early to judge about the significance of it. Also, we have no way to measure demand in a similar way, because fiat transactions are not public, so we can't get the full picture.

The section "countries and governments that own Bitcoin" is very much incorrect. That old news report about Bulgarian government seizing 200,000 coins has never been confirmed and those alleged coins were never found. Similar thing with Ukraine - the top guy with ~$1 billion in BTC on that report about Ukrainian government officials holding BTC says he was mistaken and he doesn't hold any BTC at all. Also, simply can't count private possessions of government officials as "government holdings of BTC" - those are their coins, not the governments.

Bitcoin is a currency, it's just  a not very convenient one because of volatility and occasional high fees. But any currency has some drawbacks, fiat currency gets devalued with inflation, while Bitcoin has no such problems, so you can just store it yourself without the need to invest it somewhere. Store of value is also an aspect of money, money is not simply a unit of exchange.

Bitcoin has always been the leader of crypto market, it always set the trend for alts, but there's still plenty of people who dream about the flippening or think that the coin that they are bagholding has a potential to get mass adopted. There's still a lot of irrationality on this market, like when doge rose by 100 times without any fundamental reason.

Imagine a criminal using their dirty coins (even if they mixed) to order something from the Internet - now the online shop will know their address and identity and it's linked to those coins, and if investigators will trace them, it's as good as they have already caught the criminal. But when you pay in cash, it never gets linked to previous deals.

There is one big hurt with investing in altcoins, it's called losing your money. If you look at their prices in BTC, many of them have peaked years ago and never recovered ever since. ETH used to cost something like 0.14 BTC at one point, in this cycle it peaked at 0.075. If you're buying alts with BTC and hold them long term, you most likely losing your bitcoins. Alts can make fantastic returns in short term, but they can just as easily ruin you in short term, and there's no objective method to predict which coin will get hyped next. No one could predict that Elon will pump Doge and that his tweets will have such strong influence, so buying Doge half a year ago was objectively stupid investment, those who did this just got lucky.

Millionaires are people too, they can have their own opinions. There's no single reasons why some millionaires hate Bitcoin just because they are millionaires. Think about all the reasons why someone might hate Bitcoin - enviromental FUD, worrying for fiat system, devotion to gold and stocks, etc. - this all can apply to a person regardless of their social status.

Bitcoin is a great investment if you can afford to suffer a pretty big loss for a few years if things turn badly. Saylor seemed like a genius when he started buying Bitcoin at $10-20k. But why get greedy and keep buying now and risk it all, as it has a high chance of entering a bear market that can last for years? What's he gonna do if Bitcoin's price drops below the average buy price of his coins and he has no ways to keep buying "the dip"?

How would this prevent cyber attacks? Crypto will still work even if you ban it, but now investigators will have less chances to catch the criminals and seize the funds, because there's no centralized exchanges that would cooperate with them.


As if governments needed any excuse to do it. If they really wanted it, they would have done it a long time ago.