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In meine toches!
It has the perfect balance of humidity, fragrance and UV protection... although I guess the term 'cold storage' isn't entirely accurate anymore.
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WHAT DID I tell you guys before lol. As soon as we get the overdue correction, everyone starts theorizing about the continuation of the bear market and how awful the gox situation is. Then miss their buying opportunity because they are waiting for some ridiculous 300 or whatever.
Maybe. Or maybe people are looking at the slightly bigger picture and wonder when we're finally going to break out of that February trend. Certainly didn't happen on the post-400 recovery, that much we know.  |
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I'm afraid we have one more leg down, not mainly because of Gox bankruptcy news but overall, it didn't look last 2 days we're ready for new rally. Gox news could help a bit.
But since even I am finding myself thinking where it will stop than reversal probably isn't too far.
My thoughts as well. The "recovery" already seemed to get stuck yesterday night, and with further price development of today, it's starting to look like we're leaning towards downward breakout.
[....]
Well, here's my comment on it: Your analysis makes sense, but except for the last one it's all based on momentum trading, which usually works, until it doesn't anymore... especially now that there is probably quite a few in here who think we're maybe still not rallying, but that the bottom is in... which can translate into "let's start buying in again, since we're near the bottom anyway" rather quickly. That said, I also see more evidence that we're going back into the lower half of the 500s again, since breaking 600 doesn't seem to be an option either right now, and the momentum is still downwards on any recent time scale bigger than 3 days. |
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The news say that MtGOX lost 750,000 BTC belonging to clients but has only 80 million USD in "liquid liabilities". That means 1 BTC = 100 USD approximately. Are they valuing each BTC deposit with the price at the time the deposit was made? Or are they using the MtGOX price at closure?
Probably the second one, I mentioned it on Gox bankruptcy thread. It makes me wonder if it would be good thing to buy some GoxBTC if price fails more. There's of course that 1.5k wall at 552, so it'll be a question of whether enough momentum develops to break through or not. |
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I'm afraid we have one more leg down, not mainly because of Gox bankruptcy news but overall, it didn't look last 2 days we're ready for new rally. Gox news could help a bit.
But since even I am finding myself thinking where it will stop than reversal probably isn't too far.
My thoughts as well. The "recovery" already seemed to get stuck yesterday night, and with further price development of today, it's starting to look like we're leaning towards downward breakout. |
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@mmitech
If I remember correctly, you were one of these guys who was saying "to da moon". What happened now that you turned? Missed the bottom? Sold @400?
I was shouting out to the moon till 700, all my calculations and predictions suggested that we wont drop below that but once we did, I sat down and went back read all what I wrote and what others did, look for few days to charts and other things... and I came to the conclusion that I was so wrong. I told people here that we were going to test 400 in a couple of days and they trashed me so hard but we did and I made profits of that, and they are doing the same now, but never mind I will be doing just fine the next couple of months  Since criticism is prevalent, and encouragement, hm, less often happens: let me say that I enjoy reading your posts. And being wrong in the past is no reason for me to change that impression -- it's being *aggressively* wrong that gets on my nerves (i.e. when you can't own up to your failures). |
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"I'm sorry"  He even did the fucking Japanese "I'm so sorry, please accept my sincere offer of gutting myself with a rusty sword" bow o_O Anyone found a video of the press conference? My search didn't turn up anything. if you understand Japanese or if you would like to hear how they pronounce Bitcoin in Japaneses and laugh you ass here you go http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/videonews/fnn?a=20140228-00000938-fnn-bus_allThanks! Fantastic find. "mountugoksua"  |
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"I'm sorry" He even did the fucking Japanese "I'm so sorry, please accept my sincere offer of gutting myself with a rusty sword" bow o_O Anyone found a video of the press conference? My search didn't turn up anything. |
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... we ... functional ... exchanges.
very very much agree with this part. functional, meaning reliable and efficient. my #1 wishlist item for bitcoin is localbitcoins penetration into every nation on earth (except russia, they can eat rubles when the SHTF). #1 because it is achievable. #2 wishlist item is SMS access to reliable, low slippage exchange in local currency in said nations. #3 wishlist item is efficient exchanges at volume in all global reserve currencies, available globally via the internet, interlinked for efficient arbitrage. i prefer cryptographic guarantees over regulatory guarantees and "legal" "recourse" which is neither, and unavailable to the masses due to costs and graft, and which will come with intolerable restrictions on freedom. regulated exchanges will never be able to compete with free markets once adequate cryptographic guarantees to insure security of lodged funds are provided with a usable workflow. Huh, who said something about (governmental) regulation? #1 on my wishlist is a truly decentralized exchange, one that handles the fiat interface as graceful as is possible considering that it is, and probably will, always be the weakest link. #2, in lieu of #1, is a centralized exchange that is doing more than the existing ones to convince their users that all funds are in place, that they're fully accountable, and as safe as possible. In other words, a more *transparent* centralized exchange, not a more *regulated* one. |
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Analyze the TA in the follow charts of bear market recoveries, particularly the Stochastic RSI, the depth of the trading range, and the amount of time spent consolidating before breakout. These are all logarithmic charts to help emphasize and compare the depth of trading ranges.
The current recovery is completely unlike any other btc recovery in history.
1. The stochastic RSI was never down and is on the moon instead, appearing to give a SELL signal rather than a buy signal. In every other recovery, stochastic RSI is very low and then works its way upwards into the breakout.
2. It has a 55% trading range when every other recovery has a 20% trading range.
3. There is this hammer candle with a complete abandonment of the previous lows in 400-550. Every other recovery has gone down to retest the lows.
4. It has spent 2 days trading before breakout when every other recovery has spent at least a week.
Thoughts?
TA is not everything. High RSI suggest to sell and low RSI suggest to buy. So let's see:
You're a regular comedian, aren't you. The only thing you proved by your post is that you know little to nothing about TA.* *because I'm afraid you'll ask: because that's not how identifying overbought/oversold conditions, or in general, TA, works. You don't look at a single indicator and say "Now I'll buy". So your chart is completely meaningless, like posting a weather forecast of today saying "chance of rain 60%", and then gloating "but it actually *didn't* rain". It is based (a) on a naive idea of how technical analysis works, and (b) on the equally wrong assumption that for TA to be profitable on average it needs to be "infallible", which is not how any probabilistic models works. I am not the biggest fan of TA, but I start to like it. If you look closely, you see, that the signal "high RSI -> sell" was right a few times. But the assumption made by TERA is - as far as I understand him - that the RSI is now high so the price should go down. In my opinion there is maybe a higher probability because of that indicator , but it could also go up. News don't care about the previous prices, but influence the price! I think OP's point was even "weaker" than that... (please correct me TERA) ... his point was that *reversal* situations previously looked very different than the situation now, so caution is advised. I'm pretty sure he didn't mean to say "StochRSI is too high, sell it all now" :D |
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Why more faith in EMA than SMA?
I have no way of giving a conclusive answer, but basically, when I hunt for signs of trends by looking at price in relation to moving averages, I tend to get much clearer patterns using EMA than SMA. But that's really hard to *prove* in a proper way, so I can't just say much more than: I personally work better with them. Sorry for a bit of a disappointingly uninformative answer :/ |
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I suspect that some rich people that lost a little play money on gox have realised they'll need to buy in again ASAP while the price is still supressed from the gox panic.
Yes. Because if you had just been totally burned investing in what you always knew was a high risk asset, you would be chomping at the bit to get yet more millions into the same asset on another potentially high risk exchange. That is totally how human psychology works!
Maybe the bear mood finally got me, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up not only at the daily EMA200, but the 300 again.
Never bet against the 4Hr indictators. They are all maxed, and looking to head back down the way. We may get a slight rise, trend further, a slight dip followed by another slight rise. But shorting right now has got to be a good bet, at least until lower $500s and probably a bit more......lets face it, hardly a good news week. Short right now at $588. Chance are this will be within $1-$3 of the best short price on offer today. Huh? How am I betting against 4hr indicators? TERA and windjc were mentioning revisiting the 200 day EMA at around 530, and I simply said I can even see us going back to the 300 day EMA (at around 430 right now). Not today, not tomorrow, but as part of a continued dragged out capitulation. That said, I'm also looking at the 2h view with a BB, and I can see a slightly more positive scenario: According to that interpretation, we saw the overbought state we were in in the last 24h resolve in an *extremely* controlled fashion, and we can now actually expect another small bounce up. This *does* mean price shouldn't go below 545/550 in the next 24 hours, otherwise, the pattern I see is broken. If however we *do* go above 600 again in the next 24h and stay there, it'd be a pretty good sign... in the sense that we're working out way up, staying the upper half of the BB, with the necessary retracements only briefly touching the lower BB bounds. Oda, I am confused by your post. First, why do you predict a possible retracement to the 300 SMA? We haven't been that low since 2012 when we were flatlined for(ever). The silk road crash didnt even touch the 300. Also, I have the 200 at around 475 and the 300 around 360. Not sure where you are getting your #s from for these moving averages. Your answer is: I'm talking about EMAs :D I never use SMA, don't trust them. When you guys talk about touching the SMA200 again, I tend to translate it in my head to an EMA300. Not exactly equivalent, but I have more faith in it. |
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You guys can snark all you want, but we need functional, scalable online exchanges. Otherwise, there is no comparable market for BTC, and certainly no comparable valuation per coin.
Doesn't mean we shouldn't demand more transparency from exchanges.
But it's kind of tiring to hear from the 2011 veterans that mined a few k coins back in the day "hur dur you should never keep coins on an exchange". If you *buy* them on an exchange, you just (even if just for a day) *kept* them on an exchange. End of story.
So the conclusion is not to bash using exchanges, but to demand *better* exchanges. Preferably: decentralized exchanges.
I don't see how decentralized exchanges can work on the fiat side of things. I don't doubt that some genius will manage to figure it out eventually though. I believe that Bitcoin can have an exchange rate without centralized exchanges (especially as more people adopt it). We've just had this argument 12 hours ago in this thread. By the way, I don't think I'm "snarking" when I recommend people keep their coins in cold storage. I genuinely want people to know how to protect their Bitcoins. I didn't mean you, just Adrian-X's comment (whose opinion I respect usually) above, I guess. The fiat part of decentralized exchanges is the tricky bit of course, but some form of distributed escrow will hopefully solve it in practice. And in either case, a *centralized* exchange of which (a) the owner is fully known by name, and (b) that is able to proof at all times that is in possession of all deposited funds (for BTC, I've seen a proposal by gmaxwell? was it his?, for USD bank statements would work I guess) would be a big step forward, in my opinion. |
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TA is not everything. High RSI suggest to sell and low RSI suggest to buy. So let's see:
You're a regular comedian, aren't you. The only thing you proved by your post is that you know little to nothing about TA.* *because I'm afraid you'll ask: because that's not how identifying overbought/oversold conditions, or in general, TA, works. You don't look at a single indicator and say "Now I'll buy". So your chart is completely meaningless, like posting a weather forecast of today saying "chance of rain 60%", and then gloating "but it actually *didn't* rain". It is based (a) on a naive idea of how technical analysis works, and (b) on the equally wrong assumption that for TA to be profitable on average it needs to be "infallible", which is not how any probabilistic models works. If you read the OP it is RSI that is painted in red and noted as particulary and made the main argument of it. SO if anyone is comedian here, it's you. You're not even trying with that troll post. Let's look at TERA's original post. He said *nothing* about buying or selling based on StochRSI. He made a very valid point instead: The current recovery is completely unlike any other btc recovery in history.
1. The stochastic RSI was never down and is on the moon instead, appearing to give a SELL signal rather than a buy signal. In every other recovery, stochastic RSI is very low and then works its way upwards into the breakout.
2. It has a 55% trading range when every other recovery has a 20% trading range.
3. There is this hammer candle with a complete abandonment of the previous lows in 400-550. Every other recovery has gone down to retest the lows.
4. It has spent 2 days trading before breakout when every other recovery has spent at least a week.
1) RSI is only a part of the argument 2) He never used it as a direct buy/sell signal: he is arguing instead about the likelihood of a lasting recovery. Not the same thing, and I'm sorry if you fail to understand that 3) Why am I even arguing with you, your whole post was just an attempt to get a reaction out of me, I'm sure. |
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You guys can snark all you want, but we need functional, scalable online exchanges. Otherwise, there is no comparable market for BTC, and certainly no comparable valuation per coin.
Doesn't mean we shouldn't demand more transparency from exchanges.
But it's kind of tiring to hear from the 2011 veterans that mined a few k coins back in the day "hur dur you should never keep coins on an exchange". If you *buy* them on an exchange, you just (even if just for a day) *kept* them on an exchange. End of story.
So the conclusion is not to bash using exchanges, but to demand *better* exchanges. Preferably: decentralized exchanges.
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TA is not everything. High RSI suggest to sell and low RSI suggest to buy. So let's see:
You're a regular comedian, aren't you. The only thing you proved by your post is that you know little to nothing about TA.* *because I'm afraid you'll ask: because that's not how identifying overbought/oversold conditions, or in general, TA, works. You don't look at a single indicator and say "Now I'll buy". So your chart is completely meaningless, like posting a weather forecast of today saying "chance of rain 60%", and then gloating "but it actually *didn't* rain". It is based (a) on a naive idea of how technical analysis works, and (b) on the equally wrong assumption that for TA to be profitable on average it needs to be "infallible", which is not how any probabilistic models works. |
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Short right now at $588. Chance are this will be within $1-$3 of the best short price on offer today. Price just hit 598.87.. bulls are going for another attempt at breaking through 600. I think there must be so many shorts going on right now that if they get squeezed out by a few whales we might just ramp up to $800 in one go lol. And that's why it's probably a bad idea to ever let your leveraged position "sitting" for longer than a few hours. Don't know what's the technical term is for that... What I mean is, I can see how leveraged trading makes sense during, and I really mean: right during a violent swing. But I simply can't ever imagine placing the same bet *and then walking away from the computer*. But maybe more skilled traders know what they're doing... |
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Huh? How am I betting against 4hr indicators? TERA and windjc were mentioning revisiting the 200 day EMA at around 530, and I simply said I can even see us going back to the 300 day EMA (at around 430 right now). Not today, not tomorrow, but as part of a continued dragged out capitulation.
That said, I'm also looking at the 2h view with a BB, and I can see a slightly more positive scenario: According to that interpretation, we saw the overbought state we were in in the last 24h resolve in an *extremely* controlled fashion, and we can now actually expect another small bounce up. This *does* mean price shouldn't go below 545/550 in the next 24 hours, otherwise, the pattern I see is broken. If however we *do* go above 600 again in the next 24h and stay there, it'd be a pretty good sign... in the sense that we're working out way up, staying the upper half of the BB, with the necessary retracements only briefly touching the lower BB bounds.
Yeah....2hr charts are in no-mans land but with 4 hr charts looming bearishly above. This probs means extended stagnation period before a gradual grind down to find a support level as opposed to the kind of sharp moves that we have witnessed recently. btw, where are you getting the information on the swap deals from Bitfinex. This is information that I would prove of use to me. You were expecting to go through 620 right away? You need a 60%+ rally, and the 53% rally wasn't good enough for you? Keep in mind most btc recoveries only rally 20% on the first leg...
Also can you explain the "supression" effect. How do shorts continue to prevent the price from going up on an ongoing basis? Even if it did, I still think that's a good thing to have on your side when you're opening a long. The opposite would be when everyone else is leveraged long, and they are all waiting for a point to sell... Or do you consider that these longs magically cause on ongoing rally also?
$646 - $400 $400 - $610 I make that an 85% recovery. Select BTC or USD as unit at the top menu, to see totals of either. |
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Maybe the bear mood finally got me, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up not only at the daily EMA200, but the 300 again.
re: "this rally has legs"... that's exactly what I'm doubting, and as much as shorts can be seen as a "load down coil", it can also be the suppressor that keeps it down. I would have really liked to see us go through 620 on decent volume, but neither are we near that price, nor did volume keep up. Maybe it's a resting state after being overbought, but right now, I'm as skeptical as I was on the 23rd (i.e. when we were at 640/650, before dropping back to 400). Not saying that'll happen again, but like I said: my sentiment is short&mid term bearish, and it takes some more to convince me we're turning around this time.
You were expecting to go through 620 right away? You need a 60%+ rally, and the 53% rally wasn't good enough for you? Keep in mind most btc recoveries only rally 20% on the first leg... Also can you explain the "supression" effect. How do shorts continue to prevent the price from going up on an ongoing basis? Even if it did, I still think that's a good thing to have on your side when you're opening a long. The opposite would be when everyone else is leveraged long, and they are all waiting for a point to sell... Or do you consider that these longs magically cause on ongoing rally also? Because, as I said above, the biggest surprise to me wasn't that shorts were at an ATH, but they were *rising*. Shorts being piled on top of even more shorts... there is no "magic" going on at all, I'm just looking for information that diverges from the prevalent expectations. A trend of traders increasing their leveraged short positions is such information. I really think any secondary interpretations ("would you rather have them being long already") are, well, secondary. A massive, *increasing* short wall is not, in any reasonable interpretation, a bullish signal. That said, I've also mentioned right from the beginning, that finex shorters have been burned badly before, when their collective bet against an uptrend was simply trampled down. There's enough evidence for that in the end of last year (autum, before the last leg of the rally leading to December ATH) |
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I suspect that some rich people that lost a little play money on gox have realised they'll need to buy in again ASAP while the price is still supressed from the gox panic.
Yes. Because if you had just been totally burned investing in what you always knew was a high risk asset, you would be chomping at the bit to get yet more millions into the same asset on another potentially high risk exchange. That is totally how human psychology works!
Maybe the bear mood finally got me, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up not only at the daily EMA200, but the 300 again.
Never bet against the 4Hr indictators. They are all maxed, and looking to head back down the way. We may get a slight rise, trend further, a slight dip followed by another slight rise. But shorting right now has got to be a good bet, at least until lower $500s and probably a bit more......lets face it, hardly a good news week. Short right now at $588. Chance are this will be within $1-$3 of the best short price on offer today. Huh? How am I betting against 4hr indicators? TERA and windjc were mentioning revisiting the 200 day EMA at around 530, and I simply said I can even see us going back to the 300 day EMA (at around 430 right now). Not today, not tomorrow, but as part of a continued dragged out capitulation. That said, I'm also looking at the 2h view with a BB, and I can see a slightly more positive scenario: According to that interpretation, we saw the overbought state we were in in the last 24h resolve in an *extremely* controlled fashion, and we can now actually expect another small bounce up. This *does* mean price shouldn't go below 545/550 in the next 24 hours, otherwise, the pattern I see is broken. If however we *do* go above 600 again in the next 24h and stay there, it'd be a pretty good sign... in the sense that we're working out way up, staying the upper half of the BB, with the necessary retracements only briefly touching the lower BB bounds. |
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