That is *exactly* why nobody should be surprised at how deep this correction might go, a drop 1/10th the size of the rally puts us as $4.70 (which would still be 235% up from the lows). I rarely, if ever short, but I just could't let this one go.

I am annoyed that I shorted at 6.25 before the rally to 7.25, and then backed out for a loss. If I make that back I'll be happy, any more and I'll be ecstatic, whilst filling up (unleveraged) on the way back down!

Where's the option for 'the moon baby' !!

yeah that is bugging me, but then that tends to be an indicator in itself (of volume though, not direction!)

People aren't fearful yet, they are still telling stories about how this is just a minot blip in this really to end all rallies, this is the opportunity of a lifetime, we'll never see sub $6.50 coins again. etc etc.

Yeah I'm talking my order book - I'm even net short. Doesn't make me wrong - I'm fairly sure we are well past the point of some random on the BTC forum begin able to influence price... market is much bigger than that now.

Look how the bid side on gox has changed from a smooth slope to lumpy steps at round numbers. People are becoming more afraid of entering unless they get a deep discount. The asks keep filling in any drop as people try to cut losses.

Aye, the reversal will come in time, when is anybody's guess - remember the journey down from 30 I lost count of the number times I thought it was ready to go back up

If you ask me everyone seems to be functioning perfectly normally! Massive sell off happens, people refuse to believe it and invent reasons why it will bounce back, eventually they cut there losses, just in time for the reversal.

I see nothing unusual happening here! The knife is falling... quick catch it!

yes, a fat fingered biggest-selloff-since-the-$30 bubble mistake...

Of course the real longer term shake-out is probably this selloff. Pick your horse

Bitcoinica has stop loss. Day trading is tricky cos of spreads though. You have 6 hours of the "reduced spreads special" to go though ...

I remember carefully accumulating gold on the dips in september, using leverage. By october, i'd lost more money than i care to remember, because hey its gold it can't possibly go down any further than this, opportunity of lifetime to load up cheap....

Day after day, I watched in disbelief as it made new low, after new low. I backed off and at the end of september the price looked like it had stabilised. I "knew" it was going back up, I loaded up again - too much leverage and as october unfolded, I started taking losses again. Who could this be... this is GOLD and the market is in turmoil, why isn't this unfathomable safe haven not outperforming in this market???

I sat out for a few weeks in november, I needed to recover. I was hurt badly, as december approached, everything was telling me this was a new base. So December I opened up long again... right into a downspike that took us right back down to 1500's again it was september all over again.

I figure this is it, the double bottom, just a retest of september.... but I'm low on funds I can't afford to take another hit so I sit it out. Wow, I made (was forced to!) make the right decision, even lower lows end of december.

The last 4 months have been the most harrowing, most hurtful, but probably the most useful months of my life. I've read all the stories about how the market can keep being irrational for longer than you think, but you never know just how hot the plate is until you touch it for yourself!

I'm still long on gold (unleveraged) for the long term, and that's how I am playing bitcoin. Trading on leverage on BTC is insane (for sure I am still gonna do it with my play money heh) but at least now I feel like I am ready for whatever it decides to do!

nop, I had to watch it go all the way back up to 6.7 couple of hours ago. That wasn't pretty!

edit..

just caught 50 at 6.19 though ....

If you consider rally from 2.2 to 7.25, then first stop is 5.32 by my calcs...


If you work it from 4.7 then you are looking at about 6.276

Don't worry I love you zhou, I think you're site is marvellous and props to you for (bit)coining it in - I'm only jealous i didn't do it first! You're bound to get a few haters on the way though eh

It's very interesting to watch the effect bitcoinica can/does have on the market. (as a proxy for crazy people's sentiment, that is!)

Of course I have to include myself in the 'crazy people'...

Keep on trucking Mr Z

I'm pretty sure you right! I think I just watched you take a dump all over the market, it broke moody and goxlive!

Bid at 4700BTC deep!



uh-oh!

I don't know the delay, you are right, but clark moody seems to correlate pretty tightly with mtgoxlive ime. (Both of which seem to be a fair indicator of real-time price).

I expect a bit of slippage. I also expect things to be a bit skewed in zhou's favour, maybe for his bid/ask to be 100 or 200 deep in the goxlive prices...

Unless of course all 1300 BTC on the bid side happen to be bitcoinica's ?

I am a long term bull, but not a permabull. You saw what you wanted - the dailys were screaming overbought, the forums were full of irrational exuberance. Longer term nothing has changed but short term, these kind of rallies are surely unstable.

I sold a big chunk of my 'trading chips' at around 5. Gutted I missed the rally to 6 and then 7 so I made an emotional trade at $7 in a moment of weakness but fortunately got out before it went too sour. Who knows, I may still be wrong yet and we could hit $12 by the weekend!

My order book is loaded with bids right down to just over a dollar. I don't expect them all to be filled, but I do expect some of them to be. The only question is how many.

Maybe I am missing something but the bid price on bitcoinica is 6.27




The bid price in gox is 6.42



Now I understand you have this guaranteed liquidity of 50BTC but down at 6.4 you have got 94BTC

At 6.27 BTC depth was over 1300 ??

This is just an example, it was like that on the way up too (about 20 mins ago)

I'm not stupid, I know your game is rigged against me but when you come and tell me your spreads are matching gox, you need to explain what that means, because right now it doesn't seem to mean 'your spreads are matching gox'

I think you have your chart upside down!