when people start getting bullish, better keep an eye on the 4 hour chart. we have a little wave up on average volume. reversal not confirmed yet. but i would still be surprise to see lower 400.   I bet before some nutter bet 10BTC that it would. good odds. (I bet that it wouldnt) Thats a pretty strong bet that it wont go lower at all and before June. Im generally feeling bullish atm to the degree where I dont predict a move down much more than $50-$80 but I wouldnt want to bet on not breaching $400 at all. |
|
|
|
|
And then OP changes the thread. hmmm
|
|
|
|
|
You don't need big money to get on board in massive amounts to have a rally that can change the trend. If people stop selling and all the previous sellers begin to buy back in then a rally leading to a trend reversal can occur. I agree new big money needs to come aboard to take us towards new ATH but to break the current downtrend, not so much.
|
|
|
|
I may have to go if it goes ahead |
|
|
|
What if April 15th rolls around and nothing happens just like the last deadlines that have trickled out of China. Its hardly ridiculous to think that while everyone sits around waiting for China news to drop the price again it generally creeps upwards leading to a couple of weeks of super worried bears
Rumour - we go down 100's. Good news - we go up 20 dollars. And in the interim we could easily go up $100 just waiting... Good think I have trading indicators to tell me what to do. Yes its fine for traders, any volatility either way is always good. That doesn't really help the mid term sellers that have sold in the expectation of bad news from China if it doesn't come what reason is there for a continued slide? Do you not think that without China we would be significantly higher than this and maybe in post gox recovery? |
|
|
|
|
You don't need new money to rally, you just need people to stop selling and all the previous seller to want back in, pretty simple really.
|
|
|
|
What if April 15th rolls around and nothing happens just like the last deadlines that have trickled out of China. Its hardly ridiculous to think that while everyone sits around waiting for China news to drop the price again it generally creeps upwards leading to a couple of weeks of super worried bears
Rumour - we go down 100's. Good news - we go up 20 dollars. And in the interim we could easily go up $100 just waiting... |
|
|
|
|
I may have to pay a visit to this. Would be interesting to meet some forum members also if there are any planning on going ?
|
|
|
|
|
What if April 15th rolls around and nothing happens just like the last deadlines that have trickled out of China. Its hardly ridiculous to think that while everyone sits around waiting for China news to drop the price again it generally creeps upwards leading to a couple of weeks of super worried bears
|
|
|
|
I have read sooooo much stuff (even read over half of THIS entire thread - dedicated n00b yo) - so yeah I definitely got crossed there, though it would've been even cooler of Satoshi if he'd have just coded the whole thing to make everyone financially secure and never impoverished since clearly he was already a genius level nerd That's why he hasn't spent the millions of coins he mined... once the price is right and adoption is high enough, he'll probably find a way to distribute them to the poorest people on earth  Who will all instasell to buy some food crashing the price to 0  |
|
|
|
I have read sooooo much stuff (even read over half of THIS entire thread - dedicated n00b yo) - so yeah I definitely got crossed there, though it would've been even cooler of Satoshi if he'd have just coded the whole thing to make everyone financially secure and never impoverished since clearly he was already a genius level nerd It must have taken weeks to read half this thread lol |
|
|
|
|
Hardly train time just abit of normal movement.
|
|
|
|
Guys, nobody would be happier if I am wrong than I would be. It's extremely likely we'll either go sideways for a long time or down. If we go down, $400 support will be tested and may or may not hold. 3600 coins mined per day on top of Chinese arbitragers constantly buying on Huobi, and selling on Stamp. There's simply too much liquidity to soak up without a strategic retreat in price.
It's a great time to buy if you don't mind waiting months or years to see a significant profit, but a rocket ride up past $500 before April 15 is delusional, unless there's possibly a spike that immediately crashes back down. Bitfinex walls keep moving, but the Bitstamp wall is staying solid and immovable at $400.
I know opinions change and this isn't a low blow particularly but you really must be taking your forced liquidation badly. Two days ago it was choo choo and now your saying that anyone buying coins here would have to wait years for a profit. What's changed in a day or so? I wasn't force liquidated although I might have been close by now if I had held. I saved thousands by wimping out at $478. Cutting your losses when the market turns against you is an essential part of trading. Just reading this forum, it is obvious that all of the weak hands have not been shaken out. Okay fair enough I read it that you were forced liquidated. Well yeah obviously that's a good trade then but that still doesn't explain what you feel has changed in the last two days from being bullish to now super besrish . I'm just interested not calling you out . I don't think the forum sentiment has changed in the last two days... |
|
|
|
Guys, nobody would be happier if I am wrong than I would be. It's extremely likely we'll either go sideways for a long time or down. If we go down, $400 support will be tested and may or may not hold. 3600 coins mined per day on top of Chinese arbitragers constantly buying on Huobi, and selling on Stamp. There's simply too much liquidity to soak up without a strategic retreat in price.
It's a great time to buy if you don't mind waiting months or years to see a significant profit, but a rocket ride up past $500 before April 15 is delusional, unless there's possibly a spike that immediately crashes back down. Bitfinex walls keep moving, but the Bitstamp wall is staying solid and immovable at $400.
I know opinions change and this isn't a low blow particularly but you really must be taking your forced liquidation badly. Two days ago it was choo choo and now your saying that anyone buying coins here would have to wait years for a profit. What's changed in a day or so? |
|
|
|
Now its finally looking like a proper crash - LTC getting rekt'd, btc-e overdumping instead of juts blindly following china.
The only thing missing is the volume
I think you're reading volume the wrong way: The exchange market is very fragmented now, you need to add up the 3 largest for a proxy to what MtGox used to be for its whole history until about a year ago (90% market share). 24-hour volume is 120k in Bitstamp+Bitfinex+BTC-e: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/MtGox days with volume above 150k are few: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-08-01zeg2013-04-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvThus volume these days is actually quite large. Last thursday it was 160k by my count. Therefore, this is the bottom. No one thinks the China blockade is a rumour anymore. Downside is exhausted. Another thing is to look at the volume in $ terms. Some of those days with gox with 150k of volume is when the price was like $50 or less. For the same $ amount at todays rate we would only need 19k btc volume... |
|
|
|
My overall prediction for the next 48 hours is a test close to $400, a lot will hinge on whether or not the support around $400 dries up or not. I don't think it will so some serious selling will have to occur to break through that. At this point I think its important to ask how far the downside really goes. If you think that we may break $400 and would rebuy at $375 is that worth the risk or is that more likely then a short term bounce to $570 ish? I think a short term bounce is more likely so would rather take profit on a long than risk being left behind on an uncertain short.
I think Houbi is going to test 2100 soon. They are the only exchange that hasnt "announced" - am I correct? 2100 will drag the other markets near or to 400. I was thinking 2100'ish too, but last time we had like tons more volume and tons more of a momentum. I would be surprised that just the Huobi announcement would be enough to get us there, but i am not ruling it out. Also I think if Huobi hits 2100 then without a doubt we are going below $400, no questions asked. |
|
|
|
My overall prediction for the next 48 hours is a test close to $400, a lot will hinge on whether or not the support around $400 dries up or not. I don't think it will so some serious selling will have to occur to break through that. At this point I think its important to ask how far the downside really goes. If you think that we may break $400 and would rebuy at $375 is that worth the risk or is that more likely then a short term bounce to $570 ish? I think a short term bounce is more likely so would rather take profit on a long than risk being left behind on an uncertain short.
I think Houbi is going to test 2100 soon. They are the only exchange that hasnt "announced" - am I correct? 2100 will drag the other markets near or to 400. Yes they haven't announced anything as far as I'm aware. However I know people keep saying that it is priced in but seriously after all the other exchanges have made their position clear who is expecting anything different from Huobi? I anticipate another short term dump but only by people to rebuy lower. I don't think there is many people in China who want to get out for good haven't already. The news that we get from there is sketchy at best but we and they have known since december this is coming. All of this is just a good buying opportunity, as has been the case since around $600 people selling looking to rebuy lower after a 70% retraction do run the risk of being a victim of their own greed. I think it is important to remember as well that a movement in price means vastly different margins for different players. Would you dump your 1 coin now hoping to make $20 on it if we go to $400 or would you dump 30-40 coins (if that was say 10% of your stash) to rebuy $10-15 lower and make a tidy sum. |
|
|
|
Wisdom is perceived as pessimism by the overly optimistic. I think the risks are higher than you do, but I don't think they are probable. There's no possibility of another flash dip to $400 and quick recovery because we are already there and there is no volume. I am hoping a test of $400 on volume will spring a bear trap, but support may waver if it's seriously tested. If $400 holds, there will be likely be plenty of volatility range trading until the whales who are lurking in the depths give up their hope for cheaper coins and get on board.
Ignorance is not risk, but it prevents you from accurately pricing risk. The future is not only unknown but unknowable. You can be ignorant in this game and still make money if you know that you are ignorant and do what the smart people do. The problem is that it's difficult to tell who's smart until after the fact.
I have no confidence anymore in my ability to day trade. My margin trade wiped out all my day trading profits for the year and I'm lucky to have not gotten wiped out completely. Fortunately all that money originally came from buying and holding long term, so that's what I'm going back to until I can afford more day trading "tuition". This is the best time to buy in the last four months. Coming from me, that may be a sell signal, what the hell do I know? Don't trade long term on a short term trend and don't trade short term on a long term trend. It cost me $6000 to discover that. I don't want anybody else to make the same mistake. The down trend will continue until all the weak hands are shaken out. Volume tells us that hasn't happened yet, but volume could be misleading.
I'm not bearish right now. I'm not bullish. I just don't fuckin know. I am humbled.
That must have been a serious position to be wiped out on margin? Were you not able to deposit more just to cover than position due the general likelihood that even if its not in the next few weeks we are going back up at some point? |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
