Who exactly do you mean when you say "almost everyone is aware of Bitcoin"? Are they regular investors in stocks, gold, bonds or similar things - or do you think most people in the world generally know about BTC?
Hearing about something, knowing something about something, and understanding something are completely different things.
Even in 2017 a lot of people didn't know what Bitcoin was, but now regular people see it in on their news regularly, because mainstream media reports about big movements or some interesting stories related to it. Of course there's still a huge room for adoption, but the novelty factor is not the same as before. I think you countered your own counter argument there though. Bull runs, are expected somewhat to slow down, in terms of the amount of people buying in, and the longevity of them. In theory, as more people invest in Bitcoin, the more it should become stable. the longer, and the closer we get to the limit it shouldn't be so volatile. This is helped by the block rewards being reduced as time goes on.
From a point of view of hodler, it would have been better if the magnitude of bull cycles slowed down later. It's still so volatile that most people aren't ready to use it as a currency, so why not hope for bigger bull runs while we're at it?
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Don't forget that this is just a form of gambling and majority of competitive online gamers are teenagers, and teenagers should absolutely not be encouraged to gamble. This isn't the right kind of adoption that we want to see as a community. It's no coincidence that they choose Bitcoin as their payment method, PayPal and banks would quickly disconnect them, as they threat illicit gambling very suspiciously.
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Sorry, but I don't see how any of your points proves that this was the best thing ever happened to Bitcoin. I see it as a pretty bad thing, because this bull run was shorter and smaller in terms of relative gains, compared to the previous bull cycles, which means that the rate of Bitcoin's price growth could be slowing down. Though it's a pretty expected thing, because at this point almost everyone is aware of Bitcoin
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Can somebody explain (or provide a link explaining) how an inherently deflationary/appreciating asset (like BTC or Gold) can serve as a medium of exchange versus just a store of value?
Easily. People need and want to buy things. When you go to buy groceries, you don't think "I'd rather put those money into BTC". When you spend money on your hobby, you don't think "I'd rather buy some BTC". Now, take a person who strongly believes that BTC will be the best performing asset for next decades. It would make no sense for them to hold large sums in fiat money in a bank, invest in stocks or funds. They would have most of their net worth tied in BTC. And when they would want to buy something, they'll just sell some BTC if they can't pay with it directly.
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It's better to join a campaign that has no minimum post requirements or has very low requirement, like 5 or 10 posts. So if for some reason you won't be able to meet the full quota, you will never lose money for all the posts that you have made. Also, if you're a member of such campaign, you don't have to force yourself to post if you don't have anything to say, which means your post history will have less low-quality posts, and in the long run you'll be more likely to get hired in even better paying campaign, if that's your goal.
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The institutional hype has been over for a long time already, when Bitcoin hit ATH there already was a lack of such news for some time. The big reason behind this crash is that not enough new money is flowing into this market, so the most recent investors started taking profits, which caused cascading effect. The fear of inflation has also lowered recently, so institutional investors have only less reason to look at Bitcoin.
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I don't have any problems with his Bitcoin maximalism, it's a normal stance in this market. The burden of proof lies on altcoins, they need to prove that they are indeed useful like they claim, that they have millions of people using their unique features that other coins don't posses.
What I don't like about Saylor is his cringy BTC promotion tweets, makes him look like some cult leader. If I didn't know about BTC and saw people like Saylor promoting it, I'd stay away. Also, his recent actions with Musk and miners really makes you doubt if he understands and shares Bitcoin values or not.
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I'm pretty sure that Taproot has been priced-in for a long time, it was always clear that it will get accepted by miners, there wasn't any opposition to it. i have a good feeling that the timing is also perfect because the accumulation after this panic sell is going to be over by that time and the FOMO can start. 2 weeks from now we could be sitting at $70k.
Anything can happen with Bitcoin, but for now such probability seems extremely low. The general sentiment is leaning towards bearish and Bitcoin failed to break past $40k and now $38k resistances. This "dip" is not being bought very actively.
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+Financial institutions are likely to use crypto in the art of accounting like Tesla did with BTC. Crypto will become a tool to manipulate financial reporting metrics rather than an investment;
As long as it doesn't lead to any regulatory action against crypto as a whole, this is irrelevant to crypto. +Financial institutions have bought a lot of crypto and they will sell a lot of crypto: this happens when financial institutions want to take profits or offset losses. This sell-off will create a huge drop as ICO projects sold out huge amounts of BTC & ETH in 2018 after successful funding. Financial institutions are not the place to burn tokens ^^
It's stil a net positive, because not everyone will dump, and crypto gains more reputation as a store of value. By the way, you can't really say that institutions are buying "crypto", so far they only bought Bitcoin and nothing else.
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There's way too many variables to make any good predictions about it. Bitcoin's volaility is one factor that prevents adoption, and who knows when will it end? Lightning Network is still in development. Companies can still be reluctant to adopt Bitcoin because of unclear regulatory status. General population doesn't see benefits of Bitcoin, because they are satisfied with banks. Any of these factors could change in the future and influence adoption.
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Crypto exchanges and cryptocurrency as a whole is not fully regulated. People are allowed to create a cryptocurrency and sell it to initial investors, which is a lot like unregistered IPO. Exchanges also don't have to ask regulators if they are allowed to list a coin or not. And don't forget that a lot of coins are traded against other coins, so even if there were regulations, some underground markets or even things like DeFi would easily function and allow investors to buy shitcoins.
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It's basically saying "Bitcoin couldn't maintain its growth, so the bull run is over and we're in the bear market now". It's just an a conclusion driven from observing recent price movement. But maybe tomorrow some new institutions will announce that they have invested billions in Bitcoin or other positive news will happen, and you can throw TA out of the window because news is a very powerful factor that no one can easily predict.
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"Crypto" is not here to stay. There are thousands of coins, and new get created every day, does the world need all of them? Can you imagine all of them being actively used? Or why would an average person have hundreds of different wallets and keep track of all the balances? In the long run there will be one dominating coin for each use case, and maybe a few alternatives existing just in case. The rest are completely unneeded. So, an average crypto investors who looks for "good projects" will find their porfolio shrink in the long run.
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We already have "dystopian future" in countries like China, and China is indeed hostile towards Bitcoin, but they still haven't fully banned it. Why? No one knows, perhaps they might want to have an option to use it in the future, or maybe they think enforcing a full ban is not worth it, or maybe they just don't care because Bitcoin adoption is still very-very low.
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I literally never heard anyone saying that Bitcoin can stop the funding of wars. Also, when people talk about funding wars, they rarely mean money transfers, usually it's weapons, materials, fuel, etc.
Whatever Bitcoin can actually do, it needs to achieve very big adoptions to be able to do it, like more than half of population completely switching to it. For now this seems like a distant dream.
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If Bitcoin goes lower, and people who sold it will buy back at lower price, they absolutely won't regret it in the future. Selling is a part of trading just like buying or holding, there's nothing wrong with it. If you start focusing too much on hodling, you might as well never touch your coins in your life, because they can always be more expensive in the future because of limited supply. When the price will reach $300k you will want to se $1 mliion, at $1 million you will want to see $3 million and so on.
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Those scams are obvious to you because you have spent a lot of time in Bitcoin community and is aware that there are so many scammers here. People who just joined it have absolutely different perspective, they send money to doublers because they believe that some millionaire whale could easily give away money to fellow crypto enthusiast. They fall for trading-related scams, because they really think that someone would share secrets with them, because they don't know what is crypto community like.
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History doesn't have to repeat itself with Bitcoin. There were differences between the 2013 bull run and the 2017 one, and this can also be different from both of them. It very easily could have ended already, and just as easily could reignite and reach new heights. There are no rules in Bitcoin short-term price, except maybe that a bull run comes a year or so after a halvening.
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When Bitcoin was at $58k recently, I saw an article saying that it can drop to $44k based on chart analysis, and I dismissed it as FUD, and what do you know, it did drop to $44k and then even lower. So, it's one thing when some permabear says that Bitcoin will go to some price, and it's the other thing when an impartial analyst says it, because the second has higher chance to be right. So, check the sources of claims and look what they are based upon. Not all bears hate Bitcoin or spread FUD, sometimes it's just the technical thing. Bitcoin can't always go up.
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Elon would look like a fool if he reverses his decision in such short time yet again. If Tesla will start accepting BTC again, it will happen after a few years minimum. And Elon said about enviromental concerns, which means that until people won't stop saying that Bitcoin mining consumes too much dirty electricity, he won't be able to return to accepting BTC without facing criticism.
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