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261  Economy / Speculation / Re: GoxLoop™ discussion / speculation on: December 06, 2013, 09:20:50 PM
This is interesting to say at least...didn't know this was possible (legality aside!)
262  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Get a grip. China is NOT 'banning' or 'rejecting' BTC, they're just making aware on: December 06, 2013, 12:19:21 PM
Indeed, thanks for this. Finally an article which offers a more nuanced opinion, instead of Doom&Gloom
263  Economy / Speculation / Re: Corporate Crypto on: December 06, 2013, 10:42:11 AM
If I'm correct, I belive corporations have already tried launching virtual currency of their own, without much succes...
As for Google conspiracy...I don't think this is likely, also Google hasn't taken any stance towards Bitcoin (positive or negative); except the admittance of apps on it's Play Store.
264  Economy / Speculation / Re: December Price Movement on: December 06, 2013, 10:30:45 AM
I think at this current rate it might get up to $1.5k or even $2k by the end of the year, that's being very generous and optimistic though considering we have balanced out at around $1000 for the past two weeks.

It might just stay balanced at $1000 a piece for a few more months to come, who knows? It nearly hit $1242 again two days ago but due to the bad news regarding the new China and BTC banking law, the price skyrocketed downwards.

Still though, over $1000 a piece is great considering this same time last month it was going for I think $150 to $200 a piece, and it had stayed there for quite a few months already, maybe it might stay around $1000 for a few more months to come.

I wouldn't be averse to it staying at 1000 $. Speculation is nice, but augmenting the usability of Bitcoin (for merchants) is nicer.
265  Economy / Speculation / December Price Movement on: December 06, 2013, 10:15:56 AM
Hi,

What outlook do you guys have on December? Especially with all the media attention going on right now? (China, etc,...)
I think we will be moving sideways for the rest of next week (after the usual weekend dip of course); followed by some heavy end of year price movement in the last two weeks.

Maybe this timeframe would be good to test some stability @ 1000 USD.

Again, this is not really based on accurate info, but rather gut/feeling based...
266  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: safe store bitcoins on simless smartphone on: December 06, 2013, 09:39:31 AM
so one of my phones has no sim and just uses wifi. if i turned that off, would be better than usb?

or ipod touch?

Well, the only added benefit I see would be the use of a wallet app, so you can manage the wallet from the phone...
267  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoins for Nigella Lawson? on: December 06, 2013, 08:54:44 AM
Why? So she can use the bitcoins to get some coke on Silkroad 2.0?
268  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: safe store bitcoins on simless smartphone on: December 06, 2013, 08:51:34 AM
So you are essentially storing the wallet private key on either the sim card or the memory card of the phone? In that case, you don't even need the phone really... Sounds the same as storing it on a usb stick no?

Yes, USB backup could do this as well... plus, why would the old cellphone (functioning as a USB stick) need the SIM?
269  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here's two major reasons why Bitcoin will soon pass $2000 on: December 06, 2013, 08:39:48 AM
I think that establishing a bitcoin economy in India will be hard...laws are not so accomodating over there.
I'm not sure, but I think someone mentioned that an exchange was planning on opening there?
270  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin realistically likely to rise to $42,000? on: December 06, 2013, 08:33:08 AM
Yes, now because you asked, I will share the secret: bitcoin will rise to 42,000. It's actually 42,802, a number which is hardcoded cryptographyally in the first blocks ever mined. The message satoshi left.



Thank you for revealing the secret! Speculation awaaaaaaaaaaaaay!
271  Economy / Speculation / Re: Borrowed $1,000,000 (1 million dollars) from my dad to invest in BTC (serious) on: December 06, 2013, 07:54:52 AM
Not sure if OP is trolling or...but anyway, TheDjinni's advice is actually the best you can take...clear, logical and structured

I promised him I will return the money to him by the end of 2014 with an extra $100k (10% interest). It took me a lot of convincing but I somehow managed to convince him without telling him exactly what I would do with the money.

Uh huh.  Nobody with $1m to burn will buy that you can make a $100k return in 1 year on a startup.  Most startups don't turn a profit until 5 years down the road.

This sounds like a joke, but I'll bite... I suppose he could be thinking you'll borrow to cover the difference when you don't meet your target, then learn a valuable life lesson when your investment fails and you're $400k in debt once you sell off your assets, and have to declare bankruptcy.

What he doesn't realize is that you're dumping it in something on purely speculative grounds and could double your money or lose it all by a difference of days.  It doesn't even sound like you understand how bitcoin works or what it even is.

I feel like it's almost guaranteed.

That's your first problem.  Bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme, especially if you know little about how it works.  Speculative bubbles always benefit the moguls, veterans, and hawkish traders at the expense of the young, new, and inexperienced.

1. Am I being really stupid and optimistic to think this way? How much of a chance/risk do you think it is for the price to not go up any higher in 2014? IMO, it almost seems guaranteed the price will at least hit $1200-$1300/btc sometime next year.... or is there a risk that I'm not aware of?

This plan is insane.

Bitcoin always spikes in value after a media blitz via a speculative bubble, then crashes hard a few months later.  Those of us who have had their ear to the ground have seen it happen, first in May of 2011, then less so in Jan 2012, then again in August 2012.  Do NOT invest in $1 million in bitcoin unless you are prepared to lose $990,000 of it.

The recent media attention that bitcoin has received is the sole thing fueling this bubble.

See:



2. I have a coinbase account and it only lets me buy a max of 50 BTC at a time. Is there a place where I can buy as many as I want w/o any limits?

This is not a transaction you want to handle online with some random exchange.  Find a bunch then call them up and get a contract with a lawyer in tow, if you're crazy enough to do it.

3. Will I even be able to buy $1mil worth of BTCs? Does it depend on who's selling right at the moment I'm trying to buy some? How does this work?

I doubt there'll be enough sellers at any one point in time for you to drop $1 million into the market.  Dropping $1m in a day might actually cause the speculative bubble to burst, since you'd spike the value so quickly that the speculators will panic-sell.

You'd have to buy them up at a slower pace, but that just puts you at even greater risk.

4. Will I have to pay taxes on capital gains? I don't wanna pay shit to the US gov, how would they know how much I made off BTCs?

They'd call up whatever exchange service you used and ask them for the information.  If you made a significant return, the bank will notice and report it.  You WILL pay taxes on this, governments proactively look for and try to snap up smaller sums than this.  They would look at what you are doing as free money because you simply could not contest the wealth of evidence they will have on you.  And they'll sit on it for a year so that you pay interest.

I'm thinking of putting an automatic sell order right when BTCs hit $1500 in 2014.... is that too high or should I put a lower limit? I want to guarantee some profit before I get too greedy and potentially lose my dad's money. I figured if I sell at $1500 it would be a nice $400k profit for me, I could quit my job and chill in Miami and Ibiza for a year until I need money again.

Just repeat this mantra: "Bitcoin is not a get-rich-quick scheme, Bitcoin is not a get-rich-quick scheme, Bitcoin is not a get-rich-quick scheme..." until you realize how you're letting the euphoria of naked greed cloud your judgment.

What you should do: return the money to your father and say your projections were flawed as you realized that there were some fundamental problems with your idea.

Roughly the equivalent of borrowing money from your dad to put it all on roulette in Vegas.

Basically this.  The gamble is the day the bubble pops; bet safe and you make nothing, get greedy and you lose it all.  If you don't have experience day-trading and aren't prepared to sit at a computer 24/7 monitoring any change in value, you aren't ready for this.
272  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watch the tracking of the sheep marketplace thief in real time on: December 05, 2013, 03:21:14 PM
If he does coin-mixing (more than once) will it be possible to track him?

Most likely, yes. It's impossible to use a coin-mixing service for this amount of BTC (correct me if I'm wrong)
273  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bringing old Bitcoin back to life on: December 05, 2013, 03:18:51 PM
From my side I reccomend Electrum - very light and super fast. For me much better than Bitcoin-QT.

I also changed from Bitcoin-QT to Multibit. Very satisfied so far... (+-3 weeks of usage)
274  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin's Future Value, Weighted Scenario Analysis on: December 05, 2013, 03:02:42 PM
Very informative post. As things are right now, I would be inclined to believe that Option C might prevail:

C. Bitcoin becomes an important independent world currency or a reserve currency with real bills, moderate fractional reserve, etc. Then it can go to the same value as the stock of world's gold, which is in the same ballpark as the M1 money of USD, EUR or JPY. This would put 1mBTC=$300.

Time will tell though, and in the meanwhile it's usefull to have a summary of possible scenario's
275  Economy / Speculation / Re: new flash crash on: December 05, 2013, 08:59:43 AM
flash crashing hard atm...
276  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bloomberg : BREAKING: China bans financial institutions from Bitcoin transaction on: December 05, 2013, 08:29:50 AM
can't seem to find the article on Bloomberg..
I did find this though:
Bitcoin transactions unlikely to be banned: BTC China CEO
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?MainCatID=0&cid=1102&id=20131204000002
277  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcommon - 12/5/13- Technical Analysis. on: December 05, 2013, 07:43:21 AM
It seems like yesterday you were pretty close to the mark, so will definitely see where this is going.
Thanks!
278  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Members Growth on: December 05, 2013, 07:40:49 AM
Well, something has to explain the influx of new fiat....
279  Other / Off-topic / Re: For the millionaire on: December 05, 2013, 07:38:50 AM
If you want to go in fiat, at least do it in style!  Grin
http://m.jamesedition.com/extraordinaire/swiss-bank-safe-with-money-729198

Sounds like an add for: "Be your own real-life Scrooge McDuck"

280  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin ready for a correction on: December 05, 2013, 07:36:08 AM
So, another day passed, it came close to $1242 which is the all time high from 7 days ago.
Today it was at $1240.

Down or up?

Volume is very low, this could mean that it will go up soon. very soon.
The original thesis here is that it will go down to maybe $800 for a short time at a high volume before going further up, much further up.

My gut & charts tell me it will go UP...
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