Yes, I agree. Which plays nicely into my claim that "The top will be reached when it's unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell their ASICs."
I never said there was going to be a top, just that the growth rate will decline to look more like the situation prior to the introduction of ASICs. Then we agree. But I'm not sure how knowing this helps with profitability of aging chips. Edit: +1 to wasubii |
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Where is all that hashrate coming from? For example, KNC is only bringing 10 PH or less in the next 6 months. The industry can't keep up the current trend, its getting too difficult.
New players. Bigger foundry orders. As i understand it, there's money in bitcoin ASICs. There is money, but there are technological and productive limits. There is no way to sustain the current hashing growth rate. We're nowhere close to production limits. Bitcoin ASICs are currently an insignificant percentage of total silicon produced. ASICs compete with other industries and the current round of miners are being delivered in fixed batches of only 5000 or so units. There are no plans at this time to produce more of these current generation miners. No one is claiming that bitcoin asics make up a significant part of the silicon production at this time. Yes, I agree. Which plays nicely into my claim that "The top will be reached when it's unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell their ASICs." It has nothing to do with unprofitability. It has to do with market saturation and limited gains in successive generation capabilities. Market saturation is an integral part of the profitability calculation. When the market is saturated, making ASICs becomes unprofitable. |
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Where is all that hashrate coming from? For example, KNC is only bringing 10 PH or less in the next 6 months. The industry can't keep up the current trend, its getting too difficult.
New players. Bigger foundry orders. As i understand it, there's money in bitcoin ASICs. There is money, but there are technological and productive limits. There is no way to sustain the current hashing growth rate. We're nowhere close to production limits. Bitcoin ASICs are currently an insignificant percentage of total silicon produced. Sure, s-curve is real, but nothing suggests that we're anywhere close to the top. The top will be reached when it's unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell their ASICs. That's self-evident, and is the only point i'm making here. |
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Adjustments have been more like every 10.5 days.
If the hashrate was flatlining the adjustment would be exactly 2 weeks.
If the hashrate is increasing the block time falls and the adjustments are more often than two weeks because 2016 blocks are solved in less than 10 minutes per block.
Correct me if I'm wrong
By my back of the envelope calculations ActM will be entering the mining scene after the total network hashrate has passed 100PH, potentially by a lot. We are currently entering February around 18PH ( http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/) with somewhere between 78% and 88% adjustments per month. We'll aim high and say 90% adjustments, per month. Actually, let's just say we'll see 100% adjustments from here on through Q2, it's not like that's unreasonable. 18*2 = 36PH @ end of March 36*2 = 72PH @ end of April - Start of Q2 72*2 = 144PH @ end of May 144*2= 288PH@ end of June - End of Q2 Where is all that hashrate coming from? For example, KNC is only bringing 10 PH or less in the next 6 months. The industry can't keep up the current trend, its getting too difficult. New players. Bigger foundry orders. As i understand it, there's money in bitcoin ASICs. |
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The good thing is that it looks like difficulty should be "leveling-off" by the end of this year.
The difficulty will level off when it becomes unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell chips. This won't change as long as basic economic laws hold. Rising tide floats all boats yadda yadda yadda. No. Can't argue with that logic. Other manufacturers, bored by profits, will stop making, selling, and mining their ASICs. Leaving the market wide open for Ken & his awesome 55nm chippery  The parabolic rise was due to the transition from GPUs/FPGAs to ASICs. As difficulty increases, each addition of hashrate becomes a smaller and smaller percentage to the total. I am not saying that the difficulty will stop increasing, just that the rate of increase will be lower. Thus, the planning of manufacture and profitability will become more predictable. Gains in hashrate are diminishing with each die shrink and it will be that the best way to sell miners is through lowering costs through scaled-up production and not faster chips. You're missing the obvious - more manufacturers are jumping in on the action. Hashfast's boxen are already hitting the market. Cointerra claims to start shipping within days. Bitfury is ramping up its production. BFL is bound to eventually get its act together. And, as long as there's money to be made, manufacturers will continue cranking out chips. In other words, though the difficulty climb will slow down, there's nothing to suggest that this slowdown will happen anytime soon. Or that it will disproportionately help Ken's obsolete chips. |
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The good thing is that it looks like difficulty should be "leveling-off" by the end of this year.
The difficulty will level off when it becomes unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell chips. This won't change as long as basic economic laws hold. Rising tide floats all boats yadda yadda yadda. No. Can't argue with that logic. Other manufacturers, bored by profits, will stop making, selling, and mining their ASICs. Leaving the market wide open for Ken & his awesome 55nm chippery Edit: If there ever will be any chippery - thus far, there's none. |
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Hang in bro; not much longer! In two days, when you get your shares back on CT, you'll show everyone just how wrong they are.
What a fabulous post! When we trade and the share price hits crazy lows, lows that only EduardoDeCastro could have predicted. We will have to admit utter defeat and bow to the trolls amazing foresight. Except you're not an amazing unique snowflake that holds powers of observation beyond ours dreams. It's freaking obvious the price will stink, too many people have wanted out for too long, we are still in uncertain waters and with the Bitcoin price where it is there is no chance the shares will maintain 0.0005+ So really you haven't poured any constructive information into this forum, you simply regurgitate the obvious as if it's some insight we are all not aware of. The shares will stink, until the 55nm ships, and then the price will slowly climb. Once we get a solid specification for a 100GH/s+ 28nm chip the shares will stabilize around 0.001 and once the 28nm ship, unless a massive player (AMD, Intel, IBM) gets involved in mining I see our price settling in around 0.003 at full capacity. It's still a loss on my investment but in todays world I am a happy cat. You have suggested that I am crumbs. Crumbs accurately predicted the outcome of this sideshow a long time ago, when you were buying into it at the top of the market. While such foresight is by no means amazing (a claim was made that crubs' cats reached the same conclusion), you must admit that crumbs' (and his cat's) foresight was substantially better than yours  |
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As long as "shares" are available @ IPO IPVO price (millions are), your "investment" can't appreciate.
And there are no dividends.
If there were no shares at the IPO price you trolls were going to pump the price up to 0.0075 and then sell down to 0.0025. You little shitty trolls can't do that now. This makes the price much more stable then you want. Now the price is dropping 15% because of selling of just 5000 shares (0.1% of the shares) and someone is going to sell you more and even cheaper shares - this won't be me. Lol no. I wouldn't want this embarrassment even if it made me money. Ability to function without bankers is Bitcoin's greatest strength. Supporting Bitcoin bankers not only consistently impoverished "investors" in the past, it's also pathologically stupid. Luckily, there's no need to choose here between profits and integrity. Then what are you doing here? You'll tell me you are helping others, but the real reason is buying low and selling high. Most of the people can't or don't want to handle bitcoins directly, but they'll be happy to use it's advantages over the traditional transactions and banks - here comes the need of Neo&Bee. Their ATM's and POS terminals are what is taking bitcoin to the masses and spread it across the world. This is what's going to make people use it for anything else then speculations. Neo&Bee is a huge step forward. Believe it or not after few years most of the banks will use Bitcoin at least as a transaction protocol, because it's the best option. By then Neo&Bee will be far ahead and the shareholders will be very happy. If you don't like the Neo&Bee team don't invest and stop trolling. There is a possibility they fail, but the odds are on their side. If you don't like huge amount of people, business and banks to use bitcoin why did you registered bitcointalk account at all? Business like Neo&Bee are what will make bitcoin find it's real value. I hope they'll succeed and I'm aware of the risks - actually they have risk analysis (Bitcoin Vulnerabilities, Regulatory Risks, Competition Risks, Infrastructure Risks, Market Risks, Cryptography Risks, Human Risks, Funding Risks, Natural Threats) in their Prospectus ( http://lmb-holdings.com/LMB_Holdings_Prospectus.pdf). Again - strop trolling and go to your lair. Bitcoin has been "find[ing] it's real value" just fine without Danny's help. You're determined to continue helping him play banker - I won't and can't stop you. But asking me to stop pointing out how stupid it is to "invest" in "shares" of this miasma is absurd. I pointed out that there's no chance for your "investment" to appreciate - millions of shares are available @IPO price. Until they're sold through, there is no chance of upward movement (if you discount the people who can't logic or math). You chose to respond by insulting me. I pointed out that there is overwhelming empirical evidence of Bitcoin bankers scamming - from Pirateat40's Bitcoin Savings and Trust to TradeFortress to Ukyo. You responded by insulting me. Who's trolling here? *Which reminds me: Danny, how *is* that Ukyo problem resolution going? Have you reaped enough awesome PR to finally tell folks what's really going on? |
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As long as "shares" are available @ IPO IPVO price (millions are), your "investment" can't appreciate.
And there are no dividends.
If there were no shares at the IPO price you trolls were going to pump the price up to 0.0075 and then sell down to 0.0025. You little shitty trolls can't do that now. This makes the price much more stable then you want. Now the price is dropping 15% because of selling of just 5000 shares (0.1% of the shares) and someone is going to sell you more and even cheaper shares - this won't be me. Lol no. I wouldn't want this embarrassment even if it made me money. Ability to function without bankers is Bitcoin's greatest strength. Supporting Bitcoin bankers not only consistently impoverished "investors" in the past, it's also pathologically stupid. Luckily, there's no need to choose here between profits and integrity. |
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How long after CT setup will the accrued dividends be payed out? And how much is it per share at the moment?
Currently publicly known balance is roughly 55 BTC, or 0.0000055 per share. These have been accruing since the last week of October. Current rate is less than 5BTC a month to be split between 10M shares, or less than 0.0000005 per share per month. We're not that many retargets away from making less than a Satoshi per week, per share. I had better return from Labcoin...  So did I. I figured we would have had a turn-on of at least 24TH/s by now if the project ended up being successful. At this point, February looks like a wash for launch and March launch turns into a mining failure unless Intellihash is a time machine that is able to hash at a difficulty several months in the past. The good thing is that it looks like difficulty should be "leveling-off" by the end of this year. The difficulty will level off when it becomes unprofitable for the best ASIC manufacturers to sell chips. This won't change as long as basic economic laws hold. Rising tide floats all boats yadda yadda yadda. |
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... I'm not sure what you mean about thinking in run-ons; I'm assuming you mean write with run-on sentences? If so, can you provide an example: the sentence you quoted from me does not run on. But on a lazy Sunday afternoon watching the cricket, I'm more than happy to get into a discussion about grammar and punctuation OIC. You've "invested" in something with a price that can always go down but never up? Did that seem like a really good idea at the time? As long as "shares" are available @ IPO IPVO price (millions are), your "investment" can't appreciate. And there are no dividends. Was funding a guy who wants to become a banker so irresistibly sexy? * Your run-on is quoted in my post, but "a lazy Sunday afternoon watching the cricket" with you sounds as attractive as getting the aids.Trollin', trollin' trollin'...keep those wagons trollin'. You clearly can't parse a sentence to save your life and btw the acronym AIDS takes the zero article. Have an ignore for your troubles. Creekbore! I won't judge you for choosing to forego schooling in favor of huffing gas, but a childhood spent experimenting with cheap recreational solvents left you ill prepared for the challenges of today's high finance... Or tying your own shoelaces. Now let's see if it notices colors... |
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"We also made it known that we are actively working towards acquiring an active stake in a traditional licensed bank to reduce counter party [sic] risk." -Danny, reddit.
"...And, in order not to be victimized by meat packers, he bought controlling interest in an Indianapolis slaughterhouse. In order not to be victimized by steel suppliers, he bought controlling interest in a steel company in Pittsburgh. In order not to be victimized by coal suppliers, he bought controlling interest in several mines. In order not to be victimized by money lenders, he founded a bank.
And his paranoid reluctance to be a victim caused him to deal more and more in valuable papers, in stocks and bonds, and less and less in swords and pork. Small experiments with worthless papers convinced him that such papers could be sold effortlessly." -Eliot Rosewater
Vive la Revolution!
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Guys please, don't turn every conversation into pages of personal attacks ... its contra-productive. I also don't like ignorant blind ass lickers, but I'm trying to stay on topic.
It's difficult not to when people abuse the laissez faire approach of the site by using multiple accounts to magnify their personal little bug bears into intractable, never-ending issues with the sole purpose of distracting people and manipulating the share price. [snip] There is no share price to manipulate here - there are 2740000 shares available @IPO price from the issuer. No kidding. And stop thinking in run-ons. Since the IPO (and the migration from BTC-TC) the price on Havelock has dipped as low as 0.0018 (no kidding) and if you go through this thread you will see some users have been upfront about trying to get the shares as low as possible. I'm not sure what you mean about thinking in run-ons; I'm assuming you mean write with run-on sentences? If so, can you provide an example: the sentence you quoted from me does not run on. But on a lazy Sunday afternoon watching the cricket, I'm more than happy to get into a discussion about grammar and punctuation OIC. You've "invested" in something with a price that can always go down but never up? Did that seem like a really good idea at the time? As long as "shares" are available @ IPO IPVO price (millions are), your "investment" can't appreciate. And there are no dividends. Was funding a guy who wants to become a banker so irresistibly sexy? * Your run-on is quoted in my post, but "a lazy Sunday afternoon watching the cricket" with you sounds as attractive as getting the aids. |
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Guys please, don't turn every conversation into pages of personal attacks ... its contra-productive. I also don't like ignorant blind ass lickers, but I'm trying to stay on topic.
It's difficult not to when people abuse the laissez faire approach of the site by using multiple accounts to magnify their personal little bug bears into intractable, never-ending issues with the sole purpose of distracting people and manipulating the share price. [snip] There is no share price to manipulate here - there are 2740000 shares available @IPO price from the issuer. No kidding. And stop thinking in run-ons. |
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Crypto-Trade daily volume -> 1.57 BTC.
Just enough for you to sell all your shares at once then.  Just enough for all of you to sell all your shares at once. |
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...
I have heard good things about Ken, the only bad things are from VE or the trolls. I have had a lot of private correspondence with Ken and he comes across as smart and he is on the ball with the company. I only have one major issue with Ken and that is transparency, I hate being in the dark.
... Whelp, drawingthesun's vote rounds this out. The entire Active Mining Mensa chapter is now in agreement - Ken's smart and business savvy. Drawing, could you remind me who "invested" his entire retirement fund in a elderly alcy from Missouri? *But i'm happy to hear my post helped - I'm here to console and comfort those once blinded by greed and now stricken with grief. |
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All of that I really don't care about - for two reasons:
1) Ken will make money from this project only after he had made 25-50 Million USD for shareholders.
...
Lol no. The whole Slaughter clan has been living off your coin. Neither Ken nor his kinfolk are waiting for anything, they're paying themselves salaries from the coin you so generously gifted them. When they feel that they're worth more, they ask Ken for a raise. When the coin runs dry, Ken will float a third IPO, or issue moar sharez. |
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Now please FO. We are grown ups and we can look after ourselves.
ROFL!! |
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[snip]
Must you shit up every thread? |
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It's one person now with a ridiculous number of socks, posting on multiple threads basically being a twat. Seems to think this forum is his own personal play thing.
It's Eduardo from Hashfast. Welcome to bitcointalk. @creekbore, @FFS: See why I'm forced to dumb shit down? |
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