who wants to buy 4k coins at 108 when the price is surely going down afterwards...
Who wants to sell at 108 when people just demonstrated they were willing to pay 113? I did. I knew the price would have momentum after the 108.5 wall was toast. After buying in at 100, it's a healthy profit. Didn't sell all my coins either Oh, hence the "there will be panic" remark. See you back at 113 tomorrow... |
|
|
|
who wants to buy 4k coins at 108 when the price is surely going down afterwards...
Who wants to sell at 108 when people just demonstrated they were willing to pay 113? |
|
|
|
|
Because some people sold off prior to the weekend, as they expected that whoever dumped on the last two Sundays in a row would do it again, and this time they wanted to sell before the dip and buy back before the rebound.
The big sell-off never came, and so they inevitably bought back, bringing us back to pretty much exactly the price we were at before last Thursday.
Which just goes to underscore that the downward price pressure has been due to manipulators. This question ("Why") should be asked much more readily after sharp declines I reckon.
|
|
|
|
Cypher's posts keep me sane if nothing else.  You're a bear and if your kept sane then you must be receiving bear validation... Have I just decyphered the 1BTC newsletter for free?  I'm pretty sure Smoothie and Cypher are bulls on steroids in giant rampaging bulls' clothing. ;-) |
|
|
|
No worries, the wall at 108 has been there since we went below 108 days ago.
We made it all the way to 113 before either of the walls we see now sprang up. ;-) Just ignore the walls... we were due an upward correction. It's not over yet.... once the people selling for $5 below market price realise that they're pissing potential profits away we can resume. What is your bet for next top? I'm feeling 120. If it makes it to 130+, I'm laughing! No idea really.... Traditionally Tues - Thurs are rally days.... It really depends on whether people are still unnerved by the dumpers, or whether long-term speculation can overcome the short-term speculators. I'm reluctant to draw any conclusions until tomorrow :-) I don't see any smart money being on a crash right now though. |
|
|
|
No worries, the wall at 108 has been there since we went below 108 days ago.
We made it all the way to 113 before either of the walls we see now sprang up. ;-) Just ignore the walls... we were due an upward correction. It's not over yet.... once the people selling for $5 below market price realise that they're pissing potential profits away we can resume. |
|
|
|
|
the wall is doing a nice job of soaking up bear bile -- and I dare say he is getting a good deal in the process.
|
|
|
|
|
@ElectricMucus: The correlation only exists if you rescale both y and x axes.
It also looks like a pert breast, on it's side.
Means nothing.
|
|
|
|
|
谢谢啊，很多网站可能会有短信提示来加强安全性，但是我们还想通过这个功能让一些玩家不用操心几时到账，几时交易成功等，这样可以更方便一点
|
|
|
|
I have a really hard time believing that wall at 108.50 is real. I fully expect it to be the tactic wherein the wall owner sells BTC to the buys in front of it, pulls it when momentum drops, and then dumps.
Except, he didn't need to do that -- we went much higher than the current price without the wall in place. He's just buying, the wall is getting eaten. |
|
|
|
第三部分线索现已经公布，各位抓紧时间，还有两次就截止了哦  |
|
|
|
I'm going to compare TA to weather forecasting. May not be the perfect example, but I'm not going to spend too much time trying to think of a better one at this time. Weather forecasting is not 100% accurate, and the longer the timeframe the less accurate it is. This is especially true when we consider winter snowstorms for example (for those of us who live in areas where it can snow). I can't count how many times snow was forecasted but when I woke up the next morning, the only snow I found was the dandruff on my pillow.
Thing is, every one still watches the weather forecasts because it is pretty accurate. But forecasts can change. So too with TA. It needs to be constantly monitored. I'm not going to speculate on the accuracy percentage of TA at this time. And, as others have said, I would say it is not as effective when applied to BTC as when applied to APPL for example. But yes, it is still effective when used on BTC. How do I know? Because I made a couple of trades that have made me money and have kept me from being in a losing position. That is why TAs use it, because it provides some kind of basis to forecast prices. I definitely would be clueless regarding BTC potential movements if it weren't for TA. Whenever I see large dumps that cause price to plummet, I'm not confused or surprised. In fact, I'm like "About time." I'm confident that the people who bash TA do so because they don't understand how to use it. It's not all about just lines on a chart either.
It's not the same at all. Not even remotely comparable. Weather forecasting is running mathematical models through a simulator, looking for convergent outcomes, and assigning probabilities to them. It is mathematics based on science. It is not always accurate -- because that is the nature of probability; and the models can always be improved. The beef you have with weather forecasts may also be more to do with how they are presented rather than the forecast anyway. "48% chance of rain" is much more useful than a picture of rainclouds over your city. On the other hand, technical analysis is based on the assumption that markets are predictable in behaviour due to regular patterns in aggregate human emotion. TAs will tell you that they are modelling market emotion. However they are not -- you will never see any such model presented. Rather they are using patterns in historical price and volume to predict future price and volume. Usually based on premises (such as Eliott Wave) that are 100 years old. You will see lots of fancy indicators -- however they are all based on the same raw data: historical trades (There is no other data available). They are not even remotely modelling the underlying users and markets at play. You almost never see any TA that attempts to model the reasons for rises and falls. They treat price falls due to bad news, technical glitches, and manipulation equally, assuming that the average market participant knows nothing of the underlying causes too. This may have been (somewhat) useful for Wall St. a century ago, but to an Internet currency in 2013? Really? Finally, another way that TA and weather forecasting is different... consider this. If TA could even remotely accurately model behaviour, the behaviour itself wouldn't happen and the price wouldn't move. This is the key as to why TA is effectively worthless. Is the TA influencing the market, or the other way around? Read around and you will soon realise it is the former. TAs are only market oracles to their herd of market sheep. Can't you see yourself how your last paragraph is testament to this fact? Sorry to dig up an old post (just 1 day old actually. hah. this thread moves fast), but I really want to respond to this... Your statement is full of sweeping generalizations and some arguably true descriptions of how the math behind weather forecasts work and how the math behind TA, well, doesn't work. Which makes the argument sound more authoritative than it really is. Here's why: You're picking the wrong subject to compare TA against (I know, you didn't really pick it, you responded). The more appropriate comparison would be climate science. Feedback loop: predictions influence behavior influence observations influence predictions? Check. Are the models still considered to give (within the set confidence intervals) accurate predictions? Sure. Now, I'm not arguing that TA is on same the level of mathematical sophistication as climate models, but I wanted to point out that you can't really reject TA in its entirety because the possibility of feedback loops exist. And another point: I personally find it much more accurate to think of "TA" as a subset of "algorithmic trading" (not in the sense that the word is usually used, but based on the pure meaning of a formal algorithm... doesn't matter if it runs on a computer or in your brain). There sure are a lot of terrible algorithms out there (I'm looking at you, Elliot waves and Fibonacci retracements), but you can't dismiss all algorithms based on the existence of a few? many? maybe even most algorithms being not useful. But what you probably actually have in mind, and what I would agree with, is that where TA means "drawing pretty trend lines", it is almost completely useless. I agree with you -- in fact I think there's still a big missing market in Bitcoin now for advanced modelled TA -- running big simulations on user behaviour and adoption. My bigger beef really is people blindly following TA without considering the underlying causes for any big movements. There is so much "The price has to go to X" written around here... and when challenged, we always get the same response: "human emotion is predictable". Well... yes, I agree, but (a) that's not what you're modelling; and (b) stop trying to manipulate it then. |
|
|
|
Why would anyone dump if the price is going up? You know you actually make money if the price goes up. I seriously think some people don't understand that. Why do you need a wall if the price is going up? Lets see if the price remains >108 if the wall is pulled. It seems that when 108 wall will be removed, we will be back somewhere around $ 100 http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.htmlWe moved up primarily without help from the wall, so removing the wall would hardly have such a significant effect. |
|
|
|
Why would anyone dump if the price is going up? You know you actually make money if the price goes up. I seriously think some people don't understand that. Why do you need a wall if the price is going up? Why do you sell at much cheaper than people are willing to pay if you want fiat? All not-important-at-all questions. We are going up anyway. |
|
|
|
one fuking eight.
Unfucking belivable.
Why? Pretty inevitable. People only sold off prior to the weekend to get in early in case the Sunday dumper struck again. That was dumb. People should have sold because a bear is on, not because some mysterious dumper always act on Sundays. That would mean "playing his game". And BTW, they should have sold at $120-$130. IMO this mini-rally doesn't change anything. Everything is pretty much the same unless it goes quite higher and it stays higher consistently. Market its too tiny and easily moved by big players to say "the trend has changed" just because we had an 8% spike on lowish volume. People are dumb -- but that's what happened. If he had dumped again and the pattern repeated, they would have done well out of it. Of course, that was pretty unlikely. "Because a bear is on" <-- what does that mean? It's just a state of mind. Furthermore buying the "bear dips" is not dumb at all. |
|
|
|
one fuking eight.
Unfucking belivable.
Why? Pretty inevitable. People only sold off prior to the weekend to get in early in case the Sunday dumper struck again. |
|
|
|
i just dont think anything has changed to cause a rally.
until mass adoption starts imo btc is over valued. The legislation side of things worries me still.
we will see how this plays out, but im not buying yet.
Nothing changed to cause any of the recent declines. Rly? Dwolla, LR? ... Dwolla was the last bad news to cause a decline. Since then the dumps have been purely speculative (or manipulative) |
|
|
|
i just dont think anything has changed to cause a rally.
until mass adoption starts imo btc is over valued. The legislation side of things worries me still.
we will see how this plays out, but im not buying yet.
Nothing changed to cause any of the recent declines. |
|
|
|
Good luck to all who are in. I'm staying out for now, it looks like standard tactics to raise the price with a big wall prior to a dump
Big dump wouldn't keep the price down for long today... unless you really do want to wait to buy in in 8-ish days time at $180 ? |
|
|
|
|
Only 10k to $110. Not exactly too difficult to achieve.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
