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2601  Economy / Economics / Re: Satoshi's Place in England, A Lucrative idea. on: September 19, 2022, 11:27:16 PM
That would require security because those goods could add up to alot quite easily but facilitating trade would be a positive so long as people are able to get there fairly easily.   It would be a more involved operation as deals can easily go bad by accident or after a while (some) people will try to take advantage.    I used to go to a place like this in the early days of the internet and they made more on the drinks and food then anything else, ironically just having a point to draw people in was the main money maker;  we mostly used the computers offline lol
2602  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is bitcoin bear market over? on: September 19, 2022, 11:01:24 PM
Quote
It constantly looks over

Only in the short term does it rally, I dont think we've managed it for a month especially.  Problem is we go as far as beating the weekly average but further out it starts to falter.  All we've done is cross from one side of the road to the other, when we get there we go only so far and cross right back again.    Only thing thats progressing here is time and the larger moving averages are gradually dropping to be near to this price area as we've drifted sideways for so long now.
  Biggest visual clue is the 200 week average, its so long term it doesnt care much about any recent rally attempt.  We crossed and back forth many times and its never really gone far.  People wont like this but the whole bull argument will have to wait till 200 Day average is ascending upwards, thats really going to be a while boring but simple to look for.
2603  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Crypto Casinos vs money laundering. on: September 19, 2022, 10:15:32 PM
Laundering and scam or phishing would be two different things.  It can take a decade to provide an otherwise legitimate operation is connected to laundering or some kind of illegal activity.  Its not really something that can be pinned on gambling because it is a cash intensive activity but its not exclusively so, there are many different industries that might process most of their cash flow in plain currency.    The simpliest example I can remember hearing of was an account manager in local government, they claimed cashback from normal purchases from a supermarket and then gambled that side avenue of cash as it wasnt immediately apparent.  Its not a very elaborate scheme, its just down to the people with oversight like accountants involved to keep track of.
2604  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Bonus Abuse: Who is to Blame? on: September 19, 2022, 09:01:37 PM
I dont see how it can be the customers fault, presuming they are not massively plotting and professionally planning theft via being fraudulent.  Almost always the business has a greater duty of care and ability to accommodate all avenues a customer might take on a website while being a customer or is this case claiming a bonus.  It doesnt pay to really deter customers while they obviously have to prevent any exploit that might occur, its a given people will always try to get a 'special bonus'  that may never have been intended, we arent surprised by this surely and its a workload most types of business have to deal with.
2605  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for September on: September 19, 2022, 03:47:31 PM
Today the pricing has been in a fair recovery, back above 12hr average but not sustaining above the 2 day average.  Its purely a trading flush right now, as always it must develop and build a stairway higher.   So right now minimum to be positive and stay positive would be the mid 19k area.   If we dont achieve that it could lead to further selling as hopes in this current small rally are snuffed out.
   It was quite alot more negative early morning, it faltered and fell below early Sept low.   Now its back on its feet, it must not cross the line, I drew that conclusive boundary at 18.8k  to match June and the larger picture; dont want to see it leaving the road by straying that far from the action of the last few months.
2606  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin do $19k again before a bull market? on: September 18, 2022, 11:21:51 PM
Well OP was not far wrong, we didnt stray far and are about 19k but I wonder if price action is purely bouncing off the boundaries and repeating itself.  The more important conclusion is are we trending downwards or not.   The weekly low seen here is roughly equal to the last big low.   As the saying goes, you could have gone on holiday June till now and missed little but autumn tends to bring movement hence I would like to know the larger picture if possible.   
                                                                       

We are far from a bull market, its had its little attempts but we are anchored still and only going in circles till that weight is lifted.   This is resolution of prior movement, thats the framework for all these prices to work out the order of what was traded through so fast prior.   Its required, it was always something that needs to happen to ensure a good base; if we can hold here be bullish but its in question for months yet imo.
2607  Economy / Economics / Re: More people now work in clean energy than in fossil fuels on: September 18, 2022, 10:20:21 PM
The tendency of green renewable energy is towards greater efficiency where as oil, coal and other similar burning energy is a fixed process and fixed yield its harder to improve old technology.     The argument in favor of green energy is increasing but it will still be decades before its perfected.  Most obvious case for this would be solar panels which I think are now more then 70x cheaper per watt of energy produced (then 1970's), its been a great journey but they have to still continue to improve in great leaps.  
  One day all windows in new buildings will have a dual purpose of producing energy for that building, especially in places like Greece with a great amount of sunlight and natural advantage in placement to the seasons.  Some parts of the world have poor access to the sun so other types of green energy will develop, I believe even outside of solar we see great advance and efficiency.  In the end no special argument will be required, it will have become obvious but before then we do need people to recognize the silent cost to polluting 'old' energy types.
    For employment of people, its probably not a small amount to include R&D for new developments and integration into society.   IMO hydro is the most neglected and obvious large energy type.  When people wake and realize we throw away so much 'free' energy it will pivot the world in a better direction, I think all societies become richer at this time.
2608  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: When betting becomes to high on: September 18, 2022, 09:46:31 PM
Simple answer to the problem is dont transfer money required for bills into the crypto you will be gambling, if its not there it cant be used up.  The ideal strategy is one you eliminate the worst odds, dont risk money that cannot be lost or it stops being a game and its really not fun at that point.
2609  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🕹️ Esports 🎮 Prediction & Discussion Thread on: September 18, 2022, 09:11:31 PM
This is a classic, each team winning each others picked map.  Astralis will surely win Nuke over Heroic unless they have completely lost all their previous strength.  The live match says they might which is unfortunate they have lost one of their best maps, depends on the live odds (was over 2x for Heroic win).  
  I had the sides mixed up, Astralis did well on T side and somehow are looking awful on CT side; defense like warm butter.  Astralis are actually kniving each other in spawn, tragic  Grin  however they did break the heroic momentum bringing the chances back to even and live odds for heroic go to 3x almost (eco rounds, lots of death crowd overreacts noobs Tongue)


The best games are always close, I recommend watching this one as the conclusion is quite extreme; shows why CS wont be ending any time soon.
2610  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: September 18, 2022, 06:02:17 PM
The price of anything short term will alter downwards if the denominator such as BTC rises.   Thats like a set of scales, balance demands one number moves to balance the altered weighting.   This is a short term effect,  definitely it adds weight or bias an obvious trade.    People will speculate perhaps, some canny trader expects BTC to rise might sell his excess FUN token then rebuy at the lower price.
   Biggest thing I look for or want to know is are the peak prices ascending and the lowest prices each day week month ascending or not.   If we have a good trend in those things, it can help prove the token has good regular demand.   Everybody here learnt number sequences after about 5 years of schooling, so we all know the game to some extent but the chart is most often messy and puts people off; also its never certain a sequence continues reliably.
   Its worth counting, every natural phenomena has some pattern  to it like seconds between thunder and lightning but not all believe free markets are natural or anything more then chaotic/random/fake or bound only by the richest.
2611  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin hit 2022 low again? on: September 18, 2022, 05:34:29 PM
Larger picture seems to over ride the smaller swings back and forth.   We are caught on the 200 week average and viewing the 200 day average decline from some distance.  Perhaps these two measures need to be closer before anything happens, as both are slow movers we will be waiting some time.    We are not negative so much as sideways in conclusion


2612  Economy / Economics / Re: Savings during inflation on: September 17, 2022, 11:59:31 PM
Save with a food bank is most valid, anything you use and can keep for a year time period becomes a type of savings quite valid for any family to build up.  This isnt unknown, its just become less common in the times of 'Just in time' delivery and modern consumerism where trends are actively decided within a year, rising only to fall with months we arent as familiar with the concept of reserves.
  Some people can do this more easily then others, some buy a years worth of energy in their heating oil perhaps but everyone can store a years worth of food and other similar household requirements.   The point being if inflation is well over 5% or 10% even then you gain some yield on your holdings for a year and its quite justified to do so presuming the discipline is there to keep only the same steady rate of usage.
2613  Economy / Speculation / Re: All Eyes On Bitcoin’s Monthly Close on: September 17, 2022, 11:53:33 PM
Monthly chart we have been sideways since June, lots of movement but net result just sideways drift mostly which is how I would view 2022 in any case.  To be positive now needs BTC price action to recover the mid August lows, we are above the 2 day average there is some short term positivity but ultimately we are on a giants causeway its just I cannot trade monthly bars as thats for the larger trade and hold to consider.   Since this is the speculation part of the forum normally we do look at something closer to weekly bars and how we will resolve each week, for now we are in recovery and about 21k is quite important to regain and hold.
2614  Economy / Speculation / Re: 1 Bitcoin, Not for everyone. on: September 17, 2022, 10:46:31 PM
In the end nobody should have a whole Bitcoin, that kind of seems to be the destination intended in the naming of this protocol.  Its always been about exchanging the bits not the entire BTC and its ease in doing so is the point of the whole system.
  My take on that is just maths resolving from if the whole world can use even just a small holding of BTC, down to pocket change type stuff because of its unique asset type and usage online especially then you must resolve that the price very likely will be much higher and each person only requires a small bit not entire BTC to receive the utility of being in Bitcoin.  
  A majority of the world population is living in or around China (yes Asia but really anywhere that involves large scale economic activity) , that whole area of people is a long way from Washington DC and its banking system upon which the Dollar reserve world currency is currently pivotal.
  Whatever happens next its very likely we evolve towards some system more inclusive of the world entirely not just the older western based 'advanced' economies, growth will benefit an evolution we just cant be sure of the exact direction but I think serving the most people directly is likely to happen.   US dollar is quite indirect for many remote countries now, so disadvantaging those people not included in that political realm.
2615  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Ever heard of trifecta betting? on: September 17, 2022, 10:17:14 PM
Predicting exact results can pay out big time but its usually hard to do.  Surely greyhounds arent predictable enough to really expect a win on this kind of outcome, I dont know the sport well enough but not like I'd try it in horse racing either.   I have done it in esports just naming how 3 matches in sequence ends isnt too hard and 19 to 1 is recent bettable odds I saw, it didnt end with that 'exact' outcome but it was quite close.  Any bet others are scared of taking is probably worth considering with any insight possible, still a rare one for me.
2616  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🕹️ Esports 🎮 Prediction & Discussion Thread on: September 17, 2022, 09:56:41 PM
you have my interest in the Eternal Fire team in the upcoming stage round for group D.


A big talent in a team is always an unstable force because CSGO as a whole is teamwork.  Even s1mple couldnt fix Liquid's problems when he joined them and he didnt integrate nearly well enough, no surprise he was a long way from home and so on for any giant talent I always forsee possible friction occurring within a team beneath the surface.   The astralis era seems to be over, I dont mind as we like less predictable results in betting surely.

9z should beat Furious right now.  Main reason I dont mind the Xantares move is that new team logo is awesome I need more of those, glitter and whatever other types they come up with to eclipse the long standing Katowice  holos of 2014

Theres alot more games tomorrow then today I think, need to decide on those havent quite yet.
2617  Economy / Speculation / Re: Purchased at $23,500, when should I start to panic? When should I average down? on: September 17, 2022, 07:39:00 PM
The easiest long hold for BTC will be with the people who know the story on Dollar.   If you think all is good on the politics that overshadowed good governance in currency and fiscal budgets then I can understand genuine fear for any long term hold of BTC.  Hence I always say scale in, its a bumpy road but anyone who knows Dollar has problems long term and the debt is great burden to its ongoing value and usage worldwide even then BTC is a good hedge just dont over do it and dont worry excessively.
2618  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anyone think it will be much harder to buy bitcoin later on down the road? on: September 16, 2022, 11:59:29 PM
If we're bullish on BTC then we should not be anticipating a constriction of availability.   Currencies when acknowledged are not taxed or locked down by securities laws that vary between countries, capital gains taxes, etc.    So if BTC is to be accepted we should be talking about more freedom not less, its highly fungible, not consumed or altered day to day so I dont think BTC currently has the right place in society most places.    I hope we see a more liquid BTC market and lower fees to exchange, if this happens price is very likely higher imo and population interest greater vs supply.
2619  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: F1 Formula Sports Racing - Sportsbet.io promotions & discussion thread on: September 16, 2022, 11:53:13 PM
He can stay in a partial capacity for many years if he so chooses, I'd guess he is a test driver more then a main driver if he has already announced he will retire from serious competition.  Personally F1 is such an exciting sport who wouldn't want to stay around to be part of every future iteration and development by teams.   The sports commentator route is the most obvious for a retired driver but not everyone will or can go that way.
2620  Economy / Economics / Re: OPEC+ slashes oil production by 100K barrels per day as prices fall on: September 16, 2022, 11:27:32 PM

Not really. Raising the price of something does not magically increase profits, as it can produce a contraction in demand that counteracts the margin of increase.


It will be the revenue that matters, as per all large business.  Higher premium on less sales doesnt exactly help them out, problem is that OPEC was already quite close to its maximum output apparently or they might be happy with the lower prices but greater volume if that were possible.
  OPEC wanting to lower production could be taken as a bearish sign that world GDP growth  is not as strong as it should be therefore demand is not able to sustain the productive output of OPEC.   China is the most obvious indicator and we know China has suffered setbacks to its working population vs covid with poor immunity seen.  Most nations are now continuing regardless but China has chosen to lock down to zero quite often despite apparent weaker strains now in circulation.  Asia overall has often taken the flu variants as more dangerous long before recent years but only Communist China can prevent all trade done locally in quite such a uniform way.  Its such a large country it alters the whole world partly and I think OPEC also notices less economic activity by China.
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