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The market is still dominated by human, all it takes is a big buy order to blow these noobots out of water, if such an order doesn't exist, the rally will not happen anyway.
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2011-08-14 $9.207 $10.130
2011-08-15 $8.808 $9.490
2011-08-16 $8.840 $9.133
2011-08-17 $8.775 $9.295
All due respect (IMO your a very intelligent guy) but didnt your analysis also predict a value of $10 - $13 over the next few days the day before it crashed to $6  If his model could make the right prediction in every scenario he would be making tons of money and would not have been here discussing it with us. |
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actually, my transfer to bitcoin7 arrived yesterday and I bought from a guy selling 4000 BTC at 8.25 each. seems like money growing on trees in bitcoinland. but I still want to fix the rally  we need prices at $10, just as it is now. however I have a feeling it's going up tomorrow, so I'm split 50-50 for now. I finally find out one of the guys who is responsible for the rally  |
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Hi, Chod, I have been reading this and it gives me quite a bit help, so I'll give my two cents, which migh actullay be worthless, but anyway, here it goes. I actually somehow found out about the rally beforehand because in one of the markets I trade, Britcoin, the highest bidding price for BTC is constantly and suspiciously higher than that of Mt.Gox by a large margin, during the whole weekend, as you can see from this graph from http://fnoose.com/bitcoin/arbitrage/, the arbitrage profit margin skyrocketd in the last few days, when Mt.Gox price was taking a dip:  then I assume that someone may be buying in large quantites to prepare for a big uptrend attack yet don't want to move the Mt.Gox price yet, I might be totally wrong, but all I want to say is: maybe the ride in price between markets is some useful information you could include in your model.(Or if you have alreaady done that, just ignore me) |
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I've updated the previous chart with most (all?) of Chodpaba's text predictions including today's. I have not tried to extract numbers from his graphic charts. Below is a simplified table. On the left we have dates MM-DD followed by the actually daily high and low at Mt. Gox. In the right most columns are Chodpaba's predictions for each day below the date of the prediction. Chodpaba provided two types of predictions: explicit high low for each day (I've rounded and ignored the variance), and ~weekly ranges. For example, under 2011-07-21 Chodpaba made four predictions for the 22, 23, 24, and 25 July. We can see the actual low for 22 July was $13.45, high 13.8, but Chodpaba predicted $13.5-14 the day before. For the 25th, Chodpaba made five predictions on that and the previous days from 2011-07-21 to 2011-07-25. The actual day's price range was $13.75-14.7; Chodpaba predicted $13.4-15 four days earlier, and skipping across $13.5-14.4 the day before. On the day of the 25th he also made a range prediction (the last column) with 13.448-14.239 inner range and 12.895-15.462 outer range over the week from 25 July to 1 August. In order to compress the table, I've moved many of the of the later predictions under earlier predictions. So, for example Chodpaba's predictions made on 2011-07-29 share the same column as 2011-07-21. I hope that doesn't confuse too much. Maybe I'll be so motivated to put this in HTML and update it frequently. Though I only put it together as a reaction to negative posts. Franky I think Chodpaba's been solidly on, although his earlier month-in-advance were way off and he failed to predict the drop on 4 August. But on balance, I think Chodpaba'a predictions have been disturbingly accurate. Actual Low High 2011-07-21
===== ==== | ========== | 2011-07-22 | 2011-07-23 |
07-22 | 13.45 13.8 | 13.5-14.0 | ========== | ========== |
07-23 | 13.51 13.76 | 13.3-14.3 | 13.2-14.1 | 13.4-14.1 | 2011-07-24 | | 2011-07-25 |
07-24 | 13.63 14.1 | 13.4-14.8 | 13.2-14.6 | 13.2-14.3 | ========== | 2011-07-25 | ========== |
07-25 | 13.75 14.7 | 13.4-15.0 | 13.2-14.6 | 12.9-14.0 | 13.5-14.4 | ========== | 12.895- |
07-26 | 13.77 14.05 | | 14.0-15.5 | 12.8-13.6 | 13.3-14.2 | 13.6-14.6 | 13.448- |
07-27 | 13.68 14.13 | | | | 13.2-13.8 | 13.5-14.3 | 14.239- |
07-28 | 13.3 13.95 | 2011-07-29 | | | 13.1-13.8 | 13.5-14.2 | 15.462 |
07-29 | 13.33 13.7 | ========== | | | | 13.1-14.0 | " |
07-30 | 13.45 13.63 | 13.4-13.9 | 2011-07-31 | | | | " |
07-31 | 12.8 14.9 | 13.4-13.8 | ========== | 2011-08-02 | | | " |
08-01 | 12.85 13.55 | 13.4-13.8 | 13.1-13.5 | ========== | | | " |
08-02 | 11.5 13.1 | 13.2-13.8 | 13.0-13.5 | 13.0-13.5 | | | 12.145- |
08-03 | 8.7 12.2 | | 13.0-13.4 | 13.3-13.8 | | | 14.534- |
08-04 | 9.75 11.75 | | 13.0-13.3 | 13.6-14.1 | 2011-08-06 | | 16.426- |
08-05 | 9.5 11 | | 12.966- | 13.1-14.1 | ========== | | 18.251 |
08-06 | 5.75 10 | | 13.238- | 12.258- | 5.26- | 2011-08-07 | " |
08-07 | 6 9.5 | | 13.883- | 12.734- | 6.32-8.65 | ========== | " |
08-08 | | | 14.468 | 13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 | " |
08-09 | | | " | 14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | " |
08-10 | | | " | " | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | " |
08-11 | | | " | " | 2.329- | 6.02-6.75 | " |
08-12 | | | " | 12.550- | | | " |
08-13 | | | " | 12.748- | | | 15.995- |
08-14 | | | " | 13.228- | | | 16.592- |
08-15 | | | 12.834- | 13.383 | | | 19.379- |
08-16 | | | 13.253- | " | | | 19.977 |
08-17 | | | 14.176- | " | | | " |
08-18 | | | 14.871 | " | | | " |
08-19 | | | " | " | | | " |
Thanks a lot for your work, it seems that people who really try to help others always won't bother to put a donation link in their sigs. |
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I think these washouts are a good thing, at this stage. Those early adopter and early heist and "teenage millionaires" bitcoins need to be redistributed. The lower it goes the better bitcoins get spread out among investors and general public. It is a good thing in my book.
So... do not hold your horses, do panic. The sooner we get a capitulation event the sooner we move on.
What I would say is people who invest their lunch money on bitcoins should leave as soon as possible, for their own good. Those who remain should be able to afford losing their entire investment without commiting suicide. |
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I'm still bullish on bitcoins, and I'm willing to pay 5% above market price to buy them, too bad that I don't have any MtGox USD left and the bank transaction is taking ages.
Wanna buy 16 BTC at $9? Too bad I didn't see your post sooner. |
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infrastructure, securer exchanges and trading platforms will be built eventually At this point, I don't think anyone wants to put real money into Bitcoin infrastructure. They will when they need it, or when it becomes easy enough for them to do. Even back to sub-$1 doesn't signal the death of BTC, just the beginning of a new cycle, as long as the design is not found to be flawed, it will prevail. I don't care that much about"this point", I admit it could take 3-5 years or even longer for everything to be built, but I am into this for such long term. |
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I'm irrational, illogical, and emotionally invested. Anybody with me?
I'm holding, and I believe I'm making a quite rational and sound decision. |
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If prices really do go as low and some of the people in here are saying then we will all be early adopters. If they do drop below $5 I look forward to owning thousands of coins . Actually I said it mainly to point out that price will not go so low as to make this happen, investors know that, infrastructure, securer exchanges and trading platforms will be built eventually, a decentralized e-currency will see its day sometime in the future, as long as the design itself is not flawed and self-consistent, there is no reason for people to reinvent the wheel, if you're into this for the long term, you'll get your investment paid back. |
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I'm still bullish on bitcoins, and I'm willing to pay 5% above market price to buy them, too bad that I don't have any MtGox USD left and the bank transaction is taking ages.
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I couldn't bother to read the whole thread. Did anyone told OP that he is a clueless newb ? Total hashrate didn't fall, network is still at 14 Th. What he and people like him are watching is wrong data on bitcoincharts.com. They are showing how lucky the network is at solving the blocks.
I hope you don't really think that network fall from 14 Th down to 11 Th or whatever it was due to miners leaving. When network is lucky bitcoincharts.com will show 16 Th when variance is not on our side it will show 12 Th.
It has been like this for many days, I have recorded long term trend (after removing the fluctuations of course)for that. We can wait to see if the high hashrate you predict will reappear in a reasonable timeframe. |
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Has anyone experimented with solar-powered mining yet?
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Further drop of 0.3 Thash/s since last time I checked.
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whenever the difficulty changes, the total hashrate skyrockets because of how it's calculated. this same thing happens every time. you have to wait 24-36 hour for that total hasrate calculation to get back to normal. It's not people buying rigs the day difficulty changes, or getting rid of them 2 days after a difficulty change, its just that the calculation is too basic to calculate the total hashrates when there are 2 different difficulties worth of solved blocks.
I took track of the total hashrate change for quite sometime, the current hashrate is about 1-1.5Thash/s lower when compared to the same time in the last 10-days period.(about 3.6 Thash/s lower than the number immediately after the most recent difficulty change), and combined with the fact that difficulty growth has also slowed down, I think my original conclusion makes sense. |
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And difficulty factor growth slows down. Seems that people are hanging up their rigs.
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I think #5 is the biggest risk
A BTC with govt or corporate backing with an infrustructure already in place.
They would not want to dig a grave for themselves, any currency with all the characteristics of Bitcoin is going to hurt their interests(yes, including gold, the earliest decentralized currency, and that's why the U.S government banned gold hoarding for 40 years.) |
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BTC can't fail though, the truth is on MY side. The day you show me the news story that SHA-256 Encryption has been cracked is the day that "bitcoin fails". And even then the network can easily be upgraded to an even higher standard if that were ever to happen.
There are many ways bitcoin can fail, or at least be so crippled to be essentially considered a failure. 1. The major exchanges pretend to be banks, and governments crack down through anti money laundering and tax laws. Has Mt Gox and Tradehill got the funds to fight drawn out legal cases, and can they exist without the support of banks? 2. The value of bitcoins keeps falling. Speculators who got burned and miners write off bitcoin as another get rich quick scheme that failed. 3. Bitcoin fails to find a real use. There's Silk Road, and not much else. A currency that swings 10%+ on a daily basis isn't much good for use as a currency. 4. Bitcoin fails to get mass mind share. People simply don't 'understand' it and fail to adopt it. It remains the current niche player. 5. Something better comes along. Maybe a system where confirmations don't take hours. Bitcoin wouldn't scale if we suddenly threw a million transactions a day at it. 6. 50% attack. If I was rich and powerful and didn't want to see Bitcoin succeed, I would buy up enough GPU power to gain 50% hashing capability and deny transactions for long enough to make others give up. This scenario is unlikely, as the rich and powerful just don't care about bitcoin. Maybe a hacker with a botnet could do it for lulz. Collisions being found in SHA-256 would be the most unlikely failure scenario. Only No.4 is a real threat, a mass mind share is the only thing that gold has but Bitcoin doesn't. |
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