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2641  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: do not invest in crypto from loans. on: January 28, 2023, 05:04:18 AM
They always say "never invest what you can not afford to lose" for any market that you want to invest in. Loans and borrowed money is almost always money that people can not afford to lose even though some may still want to take bigger risks and try their luck in this market, these are the same people who are usually investing in altcoins (aka gambling) their money away.
2642  Economy / Economics / Re: Davos 2023: Saudi Arabia 'open' to discuss trading in non-dollar currencies on: January 27, 2023, 04:33:28 PM
Despite all the official and media statements, it is not so easy for Saudi Arabia to abandon the US dollar in its foreign exchange, especially in the oil market.  Even if it announced its willingness to accept other currencies, the buyers may not actually seek it, given the linkage of their economies to the dollar, in addition to the economic and political dependence as well. 
I agree. The al-Saud family is too dependent on US to do anything against US regime's wish. In fact each time they try to disobey the orders and go "rogue" a bunch of issues are brought up that silences them from their leadership in 9/11 to various human rights violations.
2643  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: controversial / possibly dangerous proposals for bitcoin on: January 27, 2023, 03:28:50 PM
More dangerous than proposals are the people, more specifically the "hooligans" who only create chaos and effectively prevent technical discussion from growing. The best example is 2017 where we saw scores of them on the internet spreading misinformation at the same time. To this day some people think SegWit "removes" signatures from blocks because of it!
2644  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Approximately 384 Days until the next Bitcoin halving on: January 27, 2023, 03:15:20 PM
Since the last cycle was cut short abruptly and compared to previous cycles that we had was a tiny rise, I no longer thing the 4-year cycle is a solid trend at this point even though we may start seeing another cycle shape up in the future.
For now there are a lot of other events in the world that are affecting the global economy hence affecting bitcoin price which in my opinion are more important to watch than the halving.
2645  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Retracement will finally happen on: January 27, 2023, 10:54:20 AM
There is simply no reason for the price to see another "crash" again specially below the previous resistance which is now a strong buy support. So unless something significant happens to the world economy again, it is highly unlikely to see any kind of major drops.

Whether things are going to be good or bad depends on how healthy the trends from now on are going to be like. A healthy rise where the investors start coming back slowly and buy bitcoin before it shoots up is a good thing but panic buys where price shoots up and creates high volatility is never good.
2646  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: we always regret once the price go up on: January 27, 2023, 10:43:06 AM
It depends on what you had and when you sold it. In most cases it is a good idea to sell your altcoins even at a loss because they are not known to go back up again specially when they are coming down from a big pump. But when it comes to bitcoin, the selling part even at a loss is not the problem. The biggest mistake people make is not buying back when they see the trend reversal like these days.
2647  Economy / Economics / Re: Davos 2023: Saudi Arabia 'open' to discuss trading in non-dollar currencies on: January 27, 2023, 10:37:22 AM
I agree that they will keep using dollars to settle all their financial matters, but if they move a bit towards Riyal, that would really help them out a lot, would make their money stronger, but having that much dollar in the nation helps them anyway.

Euro is another strong currency and they could accept it, and after all USA is not enemy with Europe, they are friends, specially considering how they have a dislike towards Russia together. Which means if SA ever decides to accept Ruble? Now that would be a trouble for USA. Russia is already in trouble with mild winter and not much need for gas by anyone, so if SA ever saves them by accepting Ruble, that would be trouble, but if not, then euro or dollar doesn't matter that much.
The challenge US faces is not what they are replacing US dollar with, but the fact that they are (or may) replace it. It makes very little difference whether they choose EUR or CNY or RUB, the US economy is alive because of Petrodollar.
Besides Saudi family is not respected in the global scene for any country to use their currency, so far any talks of replacing dollar was with CNY with their Chinese buyers.
2648  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: January 27, 2023, 06:29:53 AM
I will not rush to the conclusion that Europe is doing well without Russia's energy because, from what I have seen in the media, they are not doing very well. If they're really doing as well as you claim, their inflation hasn't been in double digits for the past 40 years, and things aren't getting any better either. Russia does not have an energy monopoly but is the most perfect supplier to Europe, if Europe had a better supply, they would be different now.
The biggest challenge Europe is facing is the competition. A large portion of Europe's economy depends on access to cheap and reliable energy, when that is disrupted (even a little bit) the competition from other countries (like China, India, and a dozen other countries) take over their markets very fast. Hence the deindustrialization of Europe.

I've said this many months ago when they were celebrating the fact that Russia was selling its oil/gas to non-European countries at a big discount. There was nothing to celebrate about because that was the first step of ruining EU economy.
This is why we see today that Europe's economy is at least $1 trillion smaller and continues shrinking while many other countries are expanding their economies.

~
The same arguments could be made about defeating Russia in any other manner (SRBMs and simple tanks, weak rockets, etc.) in which case I see your scenarios are still valid since a losing Russia could still decide to go nuts and use a tactical nuke since this is not a war Russia can afford to lose.
BTW this is exactly why those who aren't benefiting from this war always suggest a diplomatic solution to this conflict.
2649  Economy / Economics / Re: Iran and Russia want to issue new stablecoin backed by gold on: January 27, 2023, 06:09:53 AM
How is it even possible to use fossil fuels as currency? Storage itself is complicated and is expensive. Storing a barrel of crude oil for a month costs anywhere from $0.20 to $1.00. And crude oil hasn't proved effective against inflation. Check the prices we had in 2009-14 and now. Volatility is another concern. In case of gold, it is easier to store and has very low volatility. And although green energy has failed to replace fossil fuels so far, I have noticed a sharp increase in electric vehicles during the past few years. The replacement is picking up pace.
Producers of fossil fuel would be the main countries that use them to back their currencies and they don't need storage space since it is already stored in natural storages underground, they just increase/decrease their extraction if they need to.
As for the price, it is going to be challenging but the challenge is not specific to fossil fuels, any asset is going to have volatility and usage of fossil fuels this way could actually decrease their volatility significantly.
As for replacement, I don't see them replaced in our lifetime even electric cars need electricity that is partly generated using fossil fuels not to mention that a huge number of products are being created from fossil fuels which can never be replaced.
2650  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Issues with Proof-of-Work on: January 27, 2023, 05:08:06 AM
Proof of Work is like randomly selecting presidents and not revealing who they are until they are done with their term (pretend the president is actually the one who makes decisions).
Wrong analogy and I strongly suggest you start studying bitcoin to first understand how it works.

Miners don't really make any major decisions, they are merely workers on the network that are "working to get paid". So it is like holding a raffle to hire a different construction worker to place each block for each wall that goes up and pay them for their work.

Then instead of one "boss" overlooking their work, we have tens of thousands of them (ie. Full Nodes) watching over their work to enforce the "law" aka the consensus rules.
2651  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Issues with Proof-of-Work on: January 26, 2023, 06:28:37 AM
Apart from the drama that Franky loves to raise about devs, he is right. The scaling has very little to do with mining algorithm, it is about the block space being limited which exist in both PoW and PoS.
However the flaws in PoS are by design and there is nothing that can really fix them whereas PoW doesn't have those flaws. For example in a PoS coin (specially altcoins) where people store their coins on exchanges and the altcoin exists only on the exchange for trading (aka gambling) the exchange suddenly gains a supermajority power to control the PoS network (which has happened in the past!). Something that is not possible in PoW because by design we have a genius way of preventing such attacks by making them needing to do actual work.

What do you think it would take for people to be open to a Consensus method that works off a new base mechanism(not based in POW or POS)?
Most people are very open to new innovations in cryptocurrency world the problem is that we are always disappointed because almost everything new we see is a money grab project which is why the algorithms they introduce is also designed to ease their scam not to innovate and solve problems. Example: everything about Ethereum from its conception to help create tokens to scam people to their recent switch to PoS that helps them make money using their 72 million premined coins.
2652  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: would bitcoin be capable of switching consensus methods on: January 26, 2023, 06:21:02 AM
if there was a new type of consensus what would be the best way to test it or notify the network though?
The idea will be first proposed and discussed among the experts who are familiar with the subject (ie. mainly on bitcoin mailing list). Then the developers have to write the code for the proposal and publish it for review (on github) before it is deployed in testing environment (a separate test network) to find its flaws and improve it further.
All these steps can be reviewed by the community too. But in the last step regular users could also test things if they duplicate the code and compile/run it on their own.
Finally after the bugs were fixed and if the change is deemed worthy it will be put to vote.
2653  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: would bitcoin be capable of switching consensus methods on: January 26, 2023, 05:22:22 AM
Your question is too vague and too broad.
Additional consensus rules have been added to Bitcoin over the years such as P2SH, OP_CSV/OP_CLV, SegWit, Taproot,... which means when something useful is introduced the community reaches a consensus over the change and activate it.

The part about "efficient" is vague too, if you mean "efficient mining algorithm" then there is no such thing because PoW is very efficient and is doing what it is supposed to do which is protecting the immutability of Bitcoin blobkchain by increasing the cost of the attacks.
If something comes along that solves all the problems at the same time (not something silly that introduces more attack vectors like PoS), I'm sure the community can reach consensus and activate that too.
2654  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Big money bad for bitcoin in the long run on: January 26, 2023, 05:12:09 AM
I'm a bit doubtful about your claims.
What you call "Big Money" or the whales usually have a better understanding of the market or in other words you can't categorize then as "weak hands". This means they won't pull out of the market in any way that could cause a big drop. Same way they don't enter it in a way to cause a big rise. This is why we see accumulation phases where price is low but the "Big Money" is buying in while everyone else is ignorant.

What has always caused the big jumps and big dumps been weak hands who panic sell and panic buy into bitcoin whenever they see price already reaching a certain level. This is why we still don't see them buy back the bitcoin they sold at lower prices despite the bullish momentum. They probably buy back after $30k is broken at a panic just like how they panicked and sold their bitcoin below $20k.
2655  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Can bitcoin compete with CBDC's? on: January 26, 2023, 05:00:14 AM
To compete with something you have to be in the same category, it is like asking if a racing car can compete with a swimmer! They just don't work in the same sport. Bitcoin is a decentralized global currency that doesn't need a middle man while CBDC is the same centralized fiat system controlled by the same centralized authorities and suffers from the same problems (and some additional ones since it is CBDC).

In other words Bitcoin will remain the same alternative solution for those who want to reach financial sovereignty and exit the centralized monetary system even if it is a partial exit.
2656  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: CEX deserves all criticism but not the hate on: January 26, 2023, 04:21:13 AM
I generally agree with the subject you bring up that at the end of the day CEX is still useful and people should learn to use it with more caution (at least until better solutions are found and DEXes are improved more) but I don't see the following happening:
Government are going to strengthen the regulation of centralise and there will be more transparency from the exchange to their customers, especially with regards to custody of customers assets and proof of reserves .
There are two problems with this.
1. Even if the exchange has revenues (which they all have) it still doesn't guarantee they won't get hacked or scam their users and run away. So the said proof doesn't solve any thing.
2. Governments don't regulate exchanges to save users. They do it to save themselves! They want full control and surveillance and more importantly taxes, all of which is possible if the CEX enforces KYC and reports all their user activities to the authorities. Majority of the exchanges that have been hacked over the past couple of years were regulated and that didn't change a thing!

Quote
Apart from the from this issues CEX has really helped in increasing bitcoin and crypto investors because
To be fair we don't want bitcoin investors we want more bitcoin users to help the ecosystem as the only decentralized payment system. The altcoin investors are also simple gamblers who do more harm than good.
2657  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What could make you start using a new crypto wallet today? on: January 26, 2023, 04:12:19 AM
When someone already uses a wallet type, they won't easily switch to another one. So the new wallet has to offer something much better to incentivize the switch. For example some who is using Electrum and has some difficulties with the wallet file (ie. when the file gets big the software slows down) would love to use another wallet that doesn't have the same problem.

Of course the replacement has to still have the main principles needed for a good wallet. Two main ones in my opinion are being 100% open source so that you can verify the code and being semi-popular so that enough users have used it that most bugs have been found and fixed.
2658  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Exit liquidity on: January 26, 2023, 04:04:55 AM
It is worth knowing that a lot of those "influencers" do not even own the shitcoins they advertise! It is simply an advertisement for them that they get paid to do by the scammers behind the coin/token. That means the influencer himself is not even at risk when the shitcoin dumps!
2659  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: January 25, 2023, 10:14:42 AM
Today, Biden is due to make a statement about the supply of Abram's tanks to Ukraine, and Germany must decide on sending their Leopard tanks to Ukraine and allowing other countries to transfer these tanks to Ukraine. But this is not the way to escalate the war. This is a normal way of subduing an aggressor and forcing him to peace by inflicting a military defeat on him.
That is the way to prolong the war and nothing about it is normal.

The only way to stop an invading force is to hit them where it hurts which is hitting Russian infrastructure on Russian soil.
Look at any other invasion in the history, they never end by fighting the war in the invaded territory. WW2 didn't end because Nazis were defeated in the front-lines kilometers outside Germany or for example the invasion of Yemen stopped the day the armed forces of Yemen managed to attack their invaders' infrastructure inside their own soil (eg. Aramco in Saudi Arabia, UAE airbases and US military bases in the region, etc.).

Of course that is not something that United States would ever allow Ukraine to do which is why they never send any strategically important weapons (eg. MBMs and LBMs) to Ukraine.
2660  Economy / Economics / Re: Davos 2023: Saudi Arabia 'open' to discuss trading in non-dollar currencies on: January 25, 2023, 09:29:04 AM
I have been saying this for a long time that the world is dumping US dollar as trade currency. This is another piece in that ongoing trend. It won't kill Petrodollar entirely though since US still has many colonies that will continue using dollar including Saudi regime and even Europe. But it will definitely weaken US dollar over the coming years.

As for Saudi reasons, I believe it is just their way of getting some kicks in while seeing US is down on the ground because they won't get any other chance for doing it.
They are also putting this type of pressure on US regime because they are angry with their defeat in their invasion of their neighbor which was backed by US and the billions of dollars worth of weapons US sold them proved to be useless.
This is also why they are getting closer to US adversary China and are even selling some oil to China using CNY instead of USD.

The real question is what would US regime do? Historically they've always invaded and destroyed any country that has tried doing that.....
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