Hyperinflation (as it is felt - rapidly rising prices) does not have to do with printing money (although that is one way to cause hyperinflation).

Hyperinflation is the escape from the bad money to the good money. During hyperinflation, the marketcap of the bad money constantly shrinks, regardless whether it is being printed or not.

During hyperinflation, the holders of the bad money almost all lose, because only about 10% of the purchasing power can be exchanged for the good money during the whole process which may last years until climax. The total purchasing power stays constant, yet may have fluctuations, because typically hyperinflationary periods coincide with other negative events.

The fact that only 5-10% of BTC need to be exchanged for another coin for the latter to gain an equal marketcap, is making the situation interesting.

I predicted a forward escape in 2013 (the hyperinflation of all fiat currencies vs. BTC, not related to printing money). The prediction did not come true; paper money is still in use. However, the purchasing power of BTC is now 2-15x higher than during the time. (I have since discontinued making other than probabilistic predictions, so I can no more be wrong, but the possibility of gaining by doing what I say is still there.)

The concept of forward escape from a crypto to another, is still an interesting one to consider. Even 2% of BTC moving to another coin for the reason that there is a perceived problem in BTC that the other one does not have, could launch "hyperinflation", causing BTC to become worthless and the marketcap migrate to the other coin. This is still 100,000s of BTC, though, and the igniter must be prepared to spend months if not years for accumulation, and has other options as well, such as forking the superior technology and becoming an early adopter in the new coin.

Also there is no perfect information in the markets, most Bitcoin holders not to mention non-holders have never heard about Monero for instance, although it can easily be conceived that the brewing of this event would cross the general media barrier, providing everyone the basic information on it.

It is intellectually sound to chart the edge-case scenarios, even if the actual changes often are gradual.

The way to think of it conceptually is with the price elasticity on buy(sell) pressure.

This is defined as the increase_of_marketcap : increase_in_investment

In the past, I have estimated that with cryptos, this ranges from 4-10 over longer periods. Eg. CryptoKingdom has now marketcap of 700,000 XMR and perhaps about 70,000 have been invested to it, this makes the price elasticity ratio 10.

If the same ratio applies with the escape of capital from BTC to XMR, without change in the total cake, they meet halfway as follows (figures in $100M precision)

Start: BTC_mktcap: 3,800M, XMR_mktcap: 0M.

End: BTC_mktcap: 1,900M, XMR_mktcap: 1,900M

Capital flight from BTC: (3,800M - 1,900M) / 10 = 190M.

Number of BTC exchanged for XMR as "buy/sell pressure": ~1 million (because the USD/BTC halved from 250 to 125 during the time).

Math is different if new money makes up for the bulk of the buy pressure. Still, I believe the 4-10 ratio holds for fiat/XMR as it did for fiat/BTC.

In this case, about 400M-1,000M USD is needed to reach BTC marketcap.

Many conditions apply, time is ignored, etc. but you get the basic point.

There are many in "ignore" stage, but typically they "ignore" BTC as well.

Again, my observation only.

Blessing is good, but Forces favor the prepared. There is a recently constructed High-arched Exhibition hall below the Arco di Sergiu. It is done in such a way that even if the building above collapses, there should not be damage to the hall after the rubble is cleared. (Purposeful late-1500s bomb shelter in the middle of the town.)

The Royal 2nd Company, the most battleworthy Army unit in the Kingdom, is tasked to take the movable treasures from the Royal Palace there. (This is in addition to the Ancient doors still warehoused there, which the King in his foresight ordered to be removed, even though most of the windows could not be spared.) This applies to items in other Royal buildings as well.

Due to the hall now containing some of the most precious treasures of the Kingdom, The Royal 2nd Company will guard this building and leave the guarding of the Palace to the Royal Palace Guard.

As for the House of Magnificence, we have stoically decided that because it was constructed only 70 years ago to show the Royal Might, and has an incalculable amount of fine red cloth in curtains enough to cover all the windows (22 sqm each), and the carpet below the dome, if the dome collapses despite the best engineering knowledge used upon construction, it is the will of God: all Items still wholly or partially salvaged from there will be given to the Church, as well as the stone (the gold I cannot spare   ) , and the House will never be rebuilt.

The Throne Room is also left in its original condition, because moving the most fundamental items of the Kingship was considered a greater shame than a possibility of losing them in a fair natural event.

May it be added that without explanation here, in the thread, when the Earthquake script is run, your Items are considered to be where they are normally used/stored, in most cases the buildings with temporary doors and windowholes shut with whatever was available a few months ago.

While we have only hours left until the last AIC must be spent and Items created, every hour after that should be considered the last one to make repentance of Ancient sins and take a more reverent approach to the Church.

[During the Ancient Era, the Church did not take its historical role as a massive, wealthy, all-reaching organization, but starting from now, and especially V.4, it will have this role and ingame privileges including listed REL points that they can give at will, and blessing/cursing.]

Where I live at least, some have gone from "laugh" to "fight" already, and that is intensifying. Bets hedged, waiting if the next stage comes 

The Spring is coming for real,


Sun is shining and some have opted to start living in their houses, taking planks off the windows, instead of being packed like sardines in San Pietro.

It is as if months had passed from the Great White Light, and indeed that had become the start of the New Era in people's thinking. Time is now divided to (from the V.4: Reconstruction Specifications):
, although it seems to pass more slowly than that at this moment. We are now in 1600.5.1.

The scientists have been trying to find signs of earthquake activity, and say that the period when ground is not frozen is more likely than the frost. The majority of the people are turning to whatever the Church says however, because without it, their suffering would be much greater.

We, the King, saw a strange dream last night - we could not ascertain whether it came from Good or the Deceiver, but it affirmed that the Earthquake will certainly come, and many great Buildings will fall, and when the ground starts to shake, life can still be spared, but the unprotected Items are at peril.

The AIC conversion is ending tomorrow so there is absolutely no time to waste. We have been in deep thoughts whole this morning and think that perhaps an audience with the Bishop could solve some matters. We have disregarded the Church during the time when the Bishop was also lenient, and it seems that the whole Kingdom is now suffering under our sins. This is not a nice burden to bear.

The spring has also brought waters from the sky, and they have in many places completed the spoilage that the winter elements, animals, and (we are deeply sorry to say) lawless looters have left. The Luxury% of the Buildings is evaluated, and Townwise, it is now found that the luxury content in the Buildings has been reduced to 68%, using the (applied) formula also in the Specifications:

It is still possible to have Buildings completely without Luxury, but they will be harshly punished in Pool Formulas. On the other hand, depreciation can not go below zero...

After decades, even centuries of wear, topped with the lack of adequate provisions against weather, 37% of the Buildings are currently at 0% lux.

Where the Engineers are being better trusted than the Church, is the structural integrity of the Buildings. They also bring bad news: during the overall perceived immortality during the Ancient Era, many Buildings were constructed so that the structures are under heavy load. Already, and especially as elements now come into play, even Buildings that have not outright collapsed, will have to be periodically reinforced.

The propensity for the repair% to go down is increased by:
- height of the Building
- lack of Support (vertical reinforcements/buttresses)
- having wide windows, especially if in between is only 1x1 m of stone
- having low-arch 4
- having columns supporting heavy load from upper floors
- having roof garden (terrace OK).

The exact results of every Building's repair% will be known after the Earthquake, because that is due to introduce a large random factor. Prior to the Earthquake, all Buildings still seem standing...

While thinking, the thoughts concerning the possible sinning and the Church have been cleared as well:

We will donate 5,000 CKG to the Church, partly in Ancient Items, and Silver as a bonus.

If heavenly Justice is involved in the events, my conscience is clear, and the Church can continue helping the poor, surely my Buildings and Items will fare better in the Destruction...

Despite the current difference in market caps, all it takes for Bitcoin to be dethroned, is a small difference in the perceived legitimacy of the current and future distribution, in favor of Othercoin.

Monero has 2/3 of the coins not mined +  perpetual emission, and these might well be considered preferable from the new money pov.

To get to a level playing field, is still very far, though, due to Bitcoin's 5-year headstart and 10,000-fold brand awareness.

If the relative exchange rate continues to narrow, it is at least a sign that Monero is relatively going to the right direction even if the absolute numbers still favor Bitcoin 1,000:1.

The maxim "don't invest more than you can afford to lose" is often understood in a very lacking context, as if anything in this world was not prone to loss in certain circumstances.

Therefore,

- Don't invest in paper instruments (fiat, stocks, bonds) more than you can afford to lose in the situation of a paper collapse (happened many times in history).

- Don't invest in your house more than you can afford to lose in the situation that insurance refuses to cover (happens daily).

- Don't invest in precious metals more than you can afford to lose in the situation of theft or confiscation (both do happen).

- Don't invest in crypto more than you can afford to lose in the situation of any unforeseen event (some cryptos already bit the dust; hacks and scams).

- Don't invest in anything you cannot carry with you across border controls more than you can afford to lose if you need to flee (millions every year).

The list continues.

If you deduce that you don't want to lose more than 90% of your wealth if you are wrongfully put into prison and all your assets confiscated, prepare accordingly.

As is says in the Forum rules + repeated many times, trolls get a permaban on the thread. So if I delete your post because of trolling, it means that do not post again, or the moderators may, if they have time, ban you from the forum as well. Thank you for cooperation.

The scenario when silver coins would become useful has become much lower probability. Silver price from 2011-> tells the story.

I have 10,000s of silver coins just in case  

The oldies might have kept coins in the exchange as scarecoins, to allow for a longer accumulation period for them.

I judged during the darkest of times that if Polo steals the XMR, it's either 1) the end of the coin, so no difference how they are secured or 2) the price goes so low in the aftermath that I can buy the position back for not so big amount of money.

2 months ago, the largest XMR positions were only about $100k, which is not a big money for a strategic player.

The new players hardly have the same incentives, so the askbook becomes thinner as a result.

Arda Auction #2

Final results


Item 1:
16 * ARS1 "Silver Ring 1488 AD, 3 CKS" - The Items are Fungible, so you can bid for 1-16 units. All pay the same price, the highest non-winning bid. Bid per unit has to be divisible by 0.1. - we (HM) believe that the floor price for any Most Ancient items will be about 1-2 million after the game has gained some traction, so buying these items even for speculative purposes makes sense.

10   0.1   Baron noms
6   0.1   King

Item 2:
10 * ARS2 "Big Silver Ring 1488 AD, 5 CKS" - The Items are Fungible, so you can bid for 1-10 units. All pay the same price, the highest non-winning bid. Bid per unit has to be divisible by 0.1.

10   0.2   King

Item 3:
4*60 CKS (trade silver in year 151X; will be added to the buyer for the same year unitemized). - The Items are Fungible, so you can bid for 1-4 units. All pay the same price, the highest non-winning bid. Bid per unit has to be divisible by 0.5.

2   1.5   Baron noms
2   1.5   King

Item 4:
(/ITEMS_U: TRC-B4) An elaborate wood, wood color, 2-horse carriage K7 from 1591 AD. Minimum bid 30 million. Bid has to be divisible by 5.
-Baron noms 40 mil

Item 5:
(/ITEMS_U: WOC-B5) A green carpet 5x3 m in size K4 from 1488 AD. Bid has to be divisible by 1.
-King 3 mil

Item 6:
(/ITEMS_U: PWS-B6) Rhadamanthus' Sword: K6, 1490 AD, Dress Sword, Imported, Powerful. Bid has to be divisible by 2.
-King 12 mil

The Round Table Auction


Final Results


#6 The Marquess of Tavastia  240 (6-10)

#7 The Marquess of Ramsey  230 (7)

#8 Lord binaryFate  220 (6-10)

#9 Lord noms  180 (7-10)

#10 HE The Prince of OZ  200 (10)

So perhaps it is formal English, which has the problem. Judging your own manner of writing is understandably hard.

Anyway, the bold statement was intended to have the meaning:

"If ever in the future, some of the (honest - not intended to apply to premines such as Auroracoin or token coins with indeterminate supply and function) alts reaches even as low as 10-20% of BTC's marketcap, this is an indication that it has all that BTC has to offer and more, and will probably take over."

Item 3:
4*60 CKS (trade silver in year 151X; will be added to the buyer for the same year unitemized). - The Items are Fungible, so you can bid for 1-4 units. All pay the same price, the highest non-winning bid. Bid per unit has to be divisible by 0.5.

4   1.5   Baron noms
------------------
1   1.5   Baron noms


King 2.0 for 2

Although colloquial English cannot differentiate between present and future, it should be clear from the context that this clause refers to the future (hint: use of will indicates explicit future tense).

Silver coins also don't have an appreciable economy. But if fiat, banks and Internet fail, it does not take long for such to form, because silver becomes the good with the highest score in "monetary attributes" column.

Similarly, there is no pressing need to develop an economy for an alt as long as Bitcoin is around. Also one of the attributes of money is marketcap, which for XMR is laughably small (but going into the right direction )

If any alt reaches about 10-20% of Bitcoin's marketcap, Bitcoin is doomed in such a great probability that I'll sell mine (in favor of the alt).

The Round Table - governance and Meeting Hall

Soon we will have the complete list of the first 10 Knights of the Round Table.

It will become acute to find a place for meeting. The table needs to be at least 12 m in diameter to seat all the 50 Knights, and 14-16 m allows for more space. This type of demand is likely easiest to fulfill by having a room with a dome (as in the Theatre in a 2x3 lot or the House of Magnificence in the 3x3 lot). Neither of these is optimal even for a temporary meeting hall use, since the Theatre has auditorium floor, and HofM is walk-in.

Due to the Knights residing in the Old Town, finding the land is an additional consideration. The Old Town has chapelries that are nearly unbuilt, but land that would be big enough for the sizable final building, impressively and conveniently located, and where the House would suit the existing buildings, is hard to find. Regardless of the exact location, the land value there is also high.

To give the Fellowship a chance of reaching the stature of the Noble Palace, the Grand Hotel and the Town Hall, the lot should be at least 3x4 in size. If such is acquired, despite the brisk funds now, there will not be much for the building itself. The building costs vary from 200,000 m/sqm in Model1 houses to 2,000,000 m/sqm in San Pietro proper.

Since the interest in the memberships is good, we can also build a smaller meeting place now, which could later be sold and the income from future member donations added to the total for the Grand House.

Detailed discussions concerning the scope and rollout plan chosen, will take place once the Knights have redeemed their seats.