Thanks for the donation today. Much appreciated.

Interim bitcoin forecast and bitcoin technical analysis update:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4159453#post4159453

couldn't agree more with you, and that is why I am adding polls here to understand sentiment, and incorporating volume reads, money flows, and other indicators , the order book, elliott waves, etc.
when I saw the order book, it was very clear that the most probable direction for the bitcoin forecast was not up in the short term.

This facebook site is very active in German (no mentions of a cancellation)

As promised, here tonight's bitcoin forecast and bitcoin technical analysis.

The overall picture of a rally does not change at all, despite today’s volatility and crash type decline over the last hours.
BTC is in its early stages and with low overall volumes, volatility is high. The more BTC grows in terms of people/businesses using/accepting them, the lower volatility will get.


Analysis Nov 2 (48h chart attached)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
I am raising support level to 0.10-0.13 $ based on the longterm lograrithmic uptrend line (as posted a while ago). As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
If this level is broken, a deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible.
Strong longterm upside targets are 0.50 $ and parity 1.00 $.

2. Short term update
Prices consolidated in a triangle over past 48hrs before breaking down. Based on triangle analysis, price target for this corrective wave is 0.3 (triangle base) - [0.5 (high) - 0.3 (triangle base)] = about 0.10$ which fits nicely with the above mentioned channel up-sloping trend line.
There will be small bounces on the way down. Small bounce levels are 0.25, 0.20, 0.17, 0.13. I expect the target of 0.10-0.13 to be hit in the next 1-3 days.
Only a rise above 0.30 (hourly close) will make BTC continue the rally short term.

sorry, for some reason I clicked on "lock" . now it is unlocked.

This is to start a regular weekly poll for BTC bulls and bear sentiment.

I am using bollinger bands as part of many tools to derive bitcoin forecasts and bitcoin technical analysis.

And to be clear, prices can break out of the triangle in both directions.

If prices break 0.3 significantly to the downside, we enter a correction that has strong targets of 0.17, and then the channel trendline around 0.13 (as I highlighted in my previous updates)

And, my colleague at IRC is right, to get a significant breakout, new buyers need to come in and spend approx. $50k.

great! thanks

great to get competition.

Can you share what his bitcoin forecast and bitcoin analysis is or how I can view it?

Thanks for digging into it.

What I mean is a continuous chart of BTC/Gold spot (for the future, but ideally also historical since the start of BTC trading). As the dollar value of BTC will not really tell a lot longterm (the dollar will eventually disappear), the real expression of BTC value will be gold.

Hence a chart that looks at (at least daily) BTC/gold ratio will help a lot - to continously see what the real global purchasing power of BTC is.

example:

          BTC/USD        Gold/USD     miliBTC/Gold (=BTC/Gold*1000)
Nov 1  0.17               1355          0.125461255
Nov 2  0.19               1357          0.140014738
Nov 3  0.21               1348          0.15578635
Nov 4  0.25               1387          0.180245133
Nov 5  0.29               1384          0.209537572
...
If you can extract the actual Gold/spot prices from a different financial source (yahoo, bloomberg, cnbc, etc.) you can generate this automatically every time frame.

One more question:
The "volume in currency" option does not work. Is there a way to make this work? thanks

Could you link in a Gold $ spot price from a different source? Then divide the BTC price in USD from MtGox by this Spot Gold price, automatically..?

New short term update posted.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4154993#post4154993

Thanks for the great tip. Within 12 hours, we have 400 views and a couple of comments from the ForexFactory community (and probably some of this forum who I pulled to ForexFactory :-)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=264527

Agree with you.
It is the worst thing to disappoint consumers through to high expectations.

BTC/RUB is showing a very strong rally as well.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4153225&posted=1#post4153225

Soon, one BTC will buy one bottle of Vodka :-)

Hourly chart posted.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=264527

Bitcoin Forecast and Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Looks like another triangle is forming in the hourly chart since early Sunday (Nov 7) (BTC seems to like triangles). Breakout on the upside will enable a short term target of 0.6 - 0.8, before the parity can be reached in the more medium term (days).