...of the solo mining only. It's useless to watch it daily, and it's now useless to watch at all, as the growth is in franchising and sales.
+ the immersion cooling data center. Isnt immersion cooling just another name for a cold shower ?  |
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KnC customers arent going to like this:
Last 120 13/10/2013 19:36 263418-263538 342 711 109 x1.81
Last 10 14/10/2013 05:42 263528-263538 334 222 335 x1.77
Next 16/10/2013 10:00 264096 270 281 794 x1.43
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Richard Stallman saw it coming. I used to chuckle a bit that he was using a rubbish Loongson based netbook because the bios and firmware were all opensource, but I no longer do: http://richard.stallman.usesthis.com/ |
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Yep, I would be interested (especially if its in the EU). Im considering buying a 3D printer myself, but I probably wouldnt use it often enough to make it worth it.
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Overall or average rates per country dont really matter. In the US price differences are also really big between different states or area's, but mining will just move to where its cheaper. Once you get close to marginal profitability, miners with higher rates will just shut down or sell their gear. Whatever latitude that leaves for cheaper electricity miners will be filled either by them buying used gear or deploying new gear. And yeah, that might lead to centralization.
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End of October is looking far closer to 450-465M imho
Im not sure. That adjustment may actually be the last moderate one for some time, and more moderate than the upcoming one. It will be too early for HF to make a difference, and KnC may have finished their production run before that. BFL, Bitfury, asicminer, avalon etc they will all continue to add to the hashrate, but end of october may be the calm before the storm. End of november will get really ugly though. |
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yeah just saw that one too. There was a time I was refreshing btc exchange pages all day, now Im refreshing hashrate pages all day. I need a life lol.
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Not sure what's with your negative tone.. are you mad you weren't able to get in on early mining? Another backseat driver? You guys are a dime a dozen.. and like the rest of you, pretty sure you will fall silent once products begin delivery. I've seen it once (early avalon), I've seen it twice (knc), let us make it thrice (hf) Oh I got in early enough all right, dont worry about me. I was mining happily when difficulty was <1M. I also got out early enough to avoid getting screwed by any asic manufacturer. Im also not saying HF wont deliver, but you are beyond naive if you think HF is not in this to make a profit for itself rather than for its miners. No asic provider to date has on average allowed its customers to make any profit (not even asicminer, they made their shareholders profit). They all made quite a bit of profit for themselves though. HF is not going to be an exception to this rule. edit: maybe bitfury customers are the only exception to this rule. At least so far. |
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The point you are trying to make is very cute.. Except you aren't HashFast with a backbone and history. You and I both know they aren't going to screw anyone over with under delivering an MPP program. If anything all the noise you trolls make has made them upgrade what was previously expected. Before, it was RAW chips for the MPP, and nobody complained.. now they are saying they will be providing (again, they will refine their statement and update us) with chips+ boards and everything ready to go. So, they took a financial hit and gave you more, yet you still cry? You fit your name, I won't read too much into this. All we can do is wait for an official statement from HF.
HF's trackrecord so far is taking a few million dollar in preorders and not shipping a damn thing yet. So far they have not proven anything. But by all means, send them more money for something undisclosed and count on them to give you something worthwhile in return. |
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I think everyone is getting wayyyy ahead of themselves. HashFast's intention (be clear at the moment or not) seems to have the tone of "we will be taking care of you" - I know we all want details/specifics now now now but that's not the case.. at the moment.. I'm more than confident that HF will come up with a solid and thought out solution for the MPP. How about we just wait for an official announcement instead of taking a statement, context or not, and turning it into something it isn't?
Id be fine with waiting, if it weren't for the fact they are selling it today. If you like, you can order a miner protection program from me as well. i will "take care of you" for only $2000. Details will be provided after you paid. |
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Is it better to burn your money in a wood or coal burning stove ?
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Another question - in your example you've used average miner electricity costs at 0.12c per kWh. Do you still think this is a reasonable estimate? I suppose you assume that miners will move rigs to the lowest cost areas - overseas if necessary?
THere is a reason I put that variable on an axis of the chart . In the long run, yes I assume mining will migrate to where electricity is cheaper. The cheapest rates I found are in Kuwait at an astounding $0.01 per KwH. Not sure if anyone will want to invest in a huge bitcoin mine located there, but for sure it will move to Russia, China, certain US states where prices are lowest. |
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Looking like 2 months from now we will be looking back and remembering with fondness when total network hashrate was still in the single digit PHashes.
I remember getting upset over breaking 1M difficulty. Now it looks like we may hit 1 billion this year. |
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I dont think you understand what Im trying to calculate here?
IM trying to figure out the hashrate where mining costs and income are in balance (for a given BTC exchange rate and for the current block reward). Thats just a number that depends on a lot of variables, but mostly electricity cost, energy efficiency, and to some extend, investment horizon, hardware production costs. There is no timeline on when we will approach this, there is no historical data to check against.
This has already happened at least once previously, when difficulty levelled out for a year or so until the exchange rate increased. Does your calculator indicate that would have happened? What happened in 2012 was different. We mined with GPU's and gpu pricing is not dependent on bitcoin profitability. AMD (and nVidia) price their products for gamers mostly. They didnt charge huge premiums when GPU mining was highly profitable, and when bitcoin mining stopped being profitable, it didnt cause AMD to lower its prices. ASICs pricing will behave very different since they serve no other market besides mining. Still, lets see what we get. Lets take January 2012 BTC exchange rate ~$5 Assuming most people were doing GPU mining. Lets take a 5870 @350Mh @200W at the wall. Lets say it costed $250. If I plug those numbers in I get a network speed of 5000 GH. edit: I forgot block reward was double back then. So Id get 1000GH. In reality it was ~800 GH. If you take in to account FPGA mining, and given the range of possible outcomes of my current spreadsheet, thats close enough in my book. |
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No doubt KnC plays a big role in this jump. But keep in mind they are only halfway or so through their first production run, if they can ramp it up, even though we are nearing the end of this difficulty interval, the 263M estimate may prove to be conservative.
Also asic miner promised 500TH by the end of this month, last I checked they were at 60 or so . If they can deliver on their promise, thats gonna be another boost.
IM still guessing we may see closer to 300M.
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I dont think you understand what Im trying to calculate here?
IM trying to figure out the hashrate where mining costs and income are in balance (for a given BTC exchange rate and for the current block reward). Thats just a number that depends on a lot of variables, but mostly electricity cost, energy efficiency, and to some extend, investment horizon, hardware production costs. There is no timeline on when we will approach this, there is no historical data to check against.
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Why dont BFL haters (and perhaps competitors) pool a few BTC and bid on an anti BFL ad ? |
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we are no where near flooded. Only a small fraction of all preorders have been delivered and we've seen not much more than an initial price cutting round. To get an idea of what "flooded" entails, have a look here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=295270.0 |
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This statement needs to be clarified and was released prematurely. We are currently in the final stages of an internal discussion about how to further protect miners moving forward for customers that opt into purchasing it.
We have preliminarily decided to further protect our miners that opt in for the miner protection at a higher price point, and provide full modules for orders placed in Batch 2 and 3.
So you are selling a protection program but you are yet to decide what it actually entails ?  |
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