No chance sorry, though it would be a better idea now then his prior purchase on the whole hype cycle.   Buy and use them sure would be good but I think the man has his hands full juggling social media rather then anything more practical like payment systems or electric cars even.     The share sales are to fund his section of the Twitter buy-out which has left the stock-market into private ownership under his control.   I believe he is by far the largest holder and so self appointed CEO of that company and he didnt get it cheap, the man is not poor but I doubt he is looking for things to buy right now imo.

He could have bought the Eiffel tower for billions and got a better yield back or any random large expensive object and it'd still he better then he likely realizes with such a large amount of capital put out for Twitter which isn't nearly as attractive as Youtube or similar.  I think he can do it, make a profit from it all but over years probably and by his time line thats a bit of a waste.  We'd all love for him to deploy BTC on that platform, put words into action as a real change to the world that'd be great to see but I'm doubting it currently;  I bet he just adds alot of adverts and sells it years from now.

The clearest point made about Tesla vs Twitter is the CEO time of Elon Musk is clearly divided where he is distracted from management of Tesla.   Whatever view on the higher multiple valuation to Tesla, if the man is not there its not as possible for him to work his magic.  Dont have to be that bearish when the price has been bid up so much, just going back to the '420' buy secured moment is reasonable says one of the men (Ben Hockett) who foresaw the 2008 housing debt problem before it fell; perhaps somebody more reliable for a reasonable take on hyped market values.

Amazing comeback, I thought it was all over at 2 nil surely that was it but Argentina slipped and France has taken full advantage of their defense lapse.   The Qatar commentary is calling it the best world cup final ever and I cant remember a match ever moving from one extreme to other like this before, still penalties is less then ideal imo for a decision.  Does this mean all the people who bet draw are the big winners on this bet ?

I've traded BTC at a $100 so I guess I can tell you from that perspective that too much has changed from then until now.   Just look up the dollar value itself, its greatly lost vs the value of anything so to now say its going back is worse then it sounds.   To be at 100 in current 2022 pricing would retrospectively place BTC lower then 2013 prices.    
   I sold at 100 mostly, I might have purchased a little around there and held but mostly I sold because I didnt know better and it was to put the proceeds to other uses, obviously the electric used and so on but mostly it would not make that much sense now to do so as we've moved on and the world is not the same.  Back at 100 you could mine BTC yourself at home and it was relatively quite cheap to acquire and so the price also matched that greater supply; ditto on the demand side of the scale far less people were involved in BTC back then it was unknown to many.  These things altered greatly, so the gap in comparison is far too great to be accurate.   Be bearish and consider 10k, thats reasonable levels of panic type sell pricing to look into and even thats extreme.


The biggest negative speakers on BTC still wouldn't say 100, even for passing interest it'd be likely to hold more value that; if its live it'll be higher as there is utility in its usage by many so you need to offload demand elsewhere before speculating this far but price spikes sure can overwhelm order books but thats not a true accurate price.  People can throw away assets at below a market price, thats normal but its lower volume specific trading not what would reflect a proper main market pricing but I've seen all kinds of weird BTC pricing especially in swaps and illiquid markets so thats the only way I see these weird price objectives.
  My most negative view for normal mainstream pricing, if the world was paying back interest at 20% base rate and lots of failure hard money conditions I guess near low four figures around that but that scenario likely sees failure in some 1st world currency;  highly improbable as central banks will take a far easier route which is inflation not deflation.

Dam thats not a thread I want to read and find correct, I just checked if my account is there and its gone and it definetly had a balance I wanted to withdraw.   There was only 4 months between setting it up and ceasing contact, not sure when my account was deleted exactly but thats really  unfortunate.  Not even a warning email for that action taken, lots of emails to advertise playing but not one for taking over someone elses balance is not really acceptable.
   Just for balance I'll state the case I mentioned years ago, which was when I forgot a balance on a big casino site and it was literally there for years.  In fact I tried to register again and remembered I still had an old account there, recovered and logged back in to find a balance from five years previous.   Thanks to the wonders of crypto it was worth alot more so that was a good day, Im obliged to mention the good custodian was FortuneJack which has been a solid place for years.   Also Coinbase did similar, I used them with a retailer who returned payment back to my account and I didnt realise/remember again was years later so that was solid of them no problem recovering.
    I wont mention which operator from the OP just lost me my balance but I'll see if they can be more reasonable if I mention the loss who knows and I'll report back.

Remind me what CFD stands for again because theres a multitude of acronyms across the whole finance spectrum its easy to mix them up.


France consistently getting to the top might be a clue, I would guess Argentina has the greater impetus but that doesn't mean they achieve it.  Consistency is always where I will lean and place my bet, if I can decide which side has been the most solid in their performance and defence not just the peaks but correcting themselves during play I would have to go with them as most likely winner.

Dont count your chickens before they hatch, people who lean on a specific date dont usually profit.   We can expect something perhaps but I wouldnt be too sure it would not take longer or is this cycle I believe 2021 was too early and we peaked due to the new QE cycle and pandemic funding disrupting monetary flow in favor of debasement to the Dollar.   Thats come back as a negative of course, inflation causes people losses and so too BTC is suffering less interest and speculative pricing, any event can upset us in ideal price objectives.

I will side with Argentina because if they dont win now Messi will never get another chance to win.  Morocco did amazing even in the loss to Croatia, thats a former finalist and they scored making them for certain one of the best teams in the world for this generation quite an accomplishment and surprise to many around the world.

Dont be predictable would be the biggest thing, if you have a win dont walk out the door with pockets bulging cash.   A really big casino will see you to the car perhaps but it seems foolish to be obvious in your movements with any large cash transaction.  Ideally dont withdraw right away if at all possible, delay, come back the next day be regular rather then a one off type occurrence because most thieves arent the patient type.  Obviously digital is much preferable for these and other reasons, also just dont gamble alone seems a good idea imo.

Range bound for this year and then next year it will attempt to leave this box via any means necessary .  most likely price action breaks the weakest point but that might not be apparent or correct at first attempt


Biggest clue is the way 50 day average caps us, we are at most neutral in our progression and its hard to predict the whole of 2023 on an determined process presently.    After the last few days I do presume we must test the bottom of this ranged box we're in.  When the negatives fail or run out of energy (which can be about time also) then we once again attempt to build.
   Till I see different I must presume 2023 is more of the same, very close to what we have now.

I imagine Croatia will win but the 3rd place match is a seriously taken match I wonder, its not quite the same as previously heading to the final so I dont know.  If its closer to a friendly type atmosphere and the result not so contested then its harder to say.   Of the two Morocco has more supporters, maybe thats all it takes to tip the scales.


I will go with that auxiliary  effect, Morocco the dream has just begun but as a former finalist for Croatia this is all just a bitter after taste.  A guess I'll take the underdog bet seems fair for a fun bet.

I thought this was a reaction to FED policy as it was going to test on that higher Dollar index anyway.    Its failed to hold a weekly average or anything close to a higher hold, next area to watch is about 16.2k.  Lows of late November but the problem being we have now probably broken our trend of higher lows on the daily chart and very possibly we test the 15.5k bigger area, once again people will have to worry about price testing every price in the teens if we dont hold that larger low.   I'd much prefer we arrest the fall and start back upwards or just sideways, BTC most often has the energy to bounce off the highest walls it can find so lower then this still.

Negative action as we back off from the 50 day average.   I feel we can still test 20k but next week rather then this week, lows of today are the weekly average which is where I pivot between a bullish short term outlook and expecting further selling.   If we can hold the lows of 14th Dec till the weekend then BTC could trade positively for the rest of the week.
   17299 is the price to watch for the meanwhile to determine outlook ongoing, otherwise 17k is a bigger area with more common ground to hold support/resistance.

Trillions in Dollar index value today rising by near 1% which is a fairly massive move for just one day.   Apparently its a reaction to FED comments, more bearish tone and defined certainity on keeping rates higher.   Not a massive surprise but enough that markets pull back from fear of harder money policy, that brings BTC down more then 2% which is a fairly light reaction by crypto standards.   All par for the course I guess not a big deal imo and trims back recent positive price action for BTC.

Inflation is probably 'bullish' for BTC at least nominally, the only reason to think otherwise is the idea that FED raises rates when it notices the damage its been causing and hence we wait a while but ultimately that Dollar is so leaky is probably going to lead to further BTC rises long term.
  Not that I wish for instability and failure, inflation, deflation, excessive deficit fiscal overspend, political nonsense and interference but the problem its going to happen anyway and we have to decide does the FED have the puppet strings for everything.  Sadly no, they are human like most other constructs we can discuss and so in the face of a natural phenomena such as a national or international economy even there isnt anyone who can stop the inevitable unfolding.
  I much prefer to go on natural dynamics, if one side of an equation or fraction diminishes I expect the other side to balance that out.   Inflation and deflation both help to make people poorer though neither is consistent but anyhow I think BTC comes out the other side and a price pullback was always happening for some kind of reason.

I dont mind if someone pumps or alters the FUN price like that, its clear it would be easy to trade it.   I got enough spare to sell at those prices and benefit because its not really reflecting the proper average pricing I know I can just buy them back cheaper not very long after, an easy profit.
  Stuff like this happens in real options trading, they pin the price to the most beneficial expiry however I dont think the bet volume for this particular contest is enough money to justify that kind of activity and it would just end up being a gift to every available seller.

18k now which puts highs for today inline with the 50 day average.  That could be the top of the move for now but the ideal is to challenge 19k
  More then particular price points the larger picture comes from the regular price action and the direction of that highs and lows is upwards since the recent low.   Its not going to shoot up, I think its still range bound and the best indication of that will be when all moving averages are able to be positive trending; 50 day average is still descending so remain cautious till thats turned around.

If you want to compare the moment, the last time 50 day average was moving upwards was August.   We did have a sequence of recovery at that point but it failed in the autumn, we havent yet begun to be that positive so theres a fight ahead yet.

Its not too early for this thread because the films that could be put into betting will be released now or they wont qualify.  There is some debate as the quality of the film and its reception generally, some people will always hate a particular film but it can win anyway.  
Fraser is popular man of the moment, just a nomination would be a big come back from the abyss and a nomination is a kind of win; they advertise nominations during film promotions so its a win for both company and actor really.   However I dont actually believe he will win, I remain unconvinced so far but we got time to decide yet.

Of the three I'd expect Cate Blanchett is with the best chance I've been a fan for 25 years or so shes done the legwork for sure & I need to watch Farrell's film.

At least 1% in gold as a counter weight to all other risks taken during investment, call it insurance that may not even cost you anything if you require it.   Normally gold is just a commodity but during extremes it could be a requirement as a counter to extreme instability.  I think the trend for the world as a whole in recent years and decades has been towards greater volatility so gold is justified in that sense.
  Between one and ten percent is considered a normal allocation in a portfolio for gold, 10% would be heavy but any more then 10% is where it becomes speculative and commodities (commodity trading, wheat, food, oil is just our essentials) are very risky at times.  I'm just mentioning gold in a low key way not recommending it for performance reasons but as a kind of safe guard, there is no yield to plain gold and really there is a cost to it both to aquire, the spread and the storage can all be costs.  Of course you might make a profit, inflation is quite apparent right now and nominally its very fair the price for gold can continue to rise but also between years its normal for it to fall.
   I invest in the miners as I wanted yield and I dont mind risk but thats not for everyone, I do think a pension should contain gold long term in a small way maybe as little as a gold coin for every year of work and pension you have accumulated.  Small but something significant is my take on gold and quite ironic obviously we are developing technology every year but yet I think this ancient resource will continue in its basic utility against human stupidity short term, or politics as I like to call it.

Martingale has one great feature which is why its around after decades of testing and not returning any particular advantage, its both very easy understand and also simple to put into practice so its perfect to try but not sadly to win with.   Put it to someone whose studied higher maths to try and compute any competitive advantage and they should confirm to you its not of any assistance in gambling.
   If people want to use this or any other strategy for fun of course go for it but dont do it with any kind of normal bet figure, because its doubling up you will reach an unhappy place quite soon and to me thats no fun at all.  If you win even, its not returning anything much in return for the risk so I avoid it personally despite being like most people decades ago I thought it was an awesome idea.