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2721  Economy / Speculation / Re: I do believe that Bitcoin will be more scarce than gold on: August 19, 2022, 11:08:28 PM
Base gold usage is rising for over a decade, probably this whole century.   Its not easy to argue that exactly as usage would be indirect in reserve but the main reason is we move away from the Dollar global reserve currency again hard to argue with DXY at twenty year highs but you know how much value has been lost so thats why alternatives are rising, haphazardly.

Gold does have industrial use but I believe its mostly Jewelry or a reserve asset.  This does qualify as usage because you have the gold as a counterbalance to your other more volatile activities.   When a bank issues currency or even a private bank issues debt, they have this asset or similar 'safe' reserves as some guarantee of payment for the more risky ventures and loans taken.
   We can say gold is pointless if you like, its inert and has no yield, it costs to store it safely but it does have a 4 thousand year old track record in its demand and I dont disregard that continuing this century.    Recent attempts to swap gold with tier 1 housing debt turned into a bad joke when the standards required were not kept and with no quality to the best reserve assets kept by banks they all faced collapse.   With gold its a very simple check to its quality or not, I can say it right now you melt down the gold till its purely an element like all gold is and thats it.  Every central bank in the world will melt all gold it buys and reforge its own bars, I'd guess private banks dont always but anyhow the test is simple.  
   Unfortunately we live in a complicated world, I wont argue anything in favor of gold except it is a unique element easy to test quality for; simplicity.   Our  other value held, assets, commodities are variable and sometimes they fail in demand;  the biggest pessimist then will say failure means gold is most valuable and nothing can challenge that.   Not true as gold is not truly essential , but as a reliable commodity I'd agree as other commodity demand does vary so much you can broke holding the wrong one.  
   The argument for crypto vs gold  is that BTC is not even trying to be the same type of asset but BTC is unique so I think its qualifying in that important way and I hope it becomes a simple testable form of value also, its fungible, highly divisible, liquid & easily exchangeable.  There's similarities but they arent the same or close imo.
2722  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why there is so much resistance at $23k price on: August 19, 2022, 10:32:36 PM
Well we broke 23k and it was indeed proper owchie time there after.   So write down 23k as a proper level to note on the way up or in the this case the failure and way down, we took a tumble today.


Anyhow here we lie on a level we hope to keep and arrest this fall.  23% of the peak to trough June pricing which is likely fair guide as there was higher volume then.
   Also we lose the 50 day average which is still rising but need to regain that again, 22k or high would be good to see in any recovery really without regaining this I expect further negative movement.
2723  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA 2022 world cup on: August 19, 2022, 12:02:13 AM
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In my opinion, England is not the second favorite to win
They lack the consistency to bet that outcome this far out.   It could be proven but I'd rather take the bet having seen them put in the performance presumably with the training and discipline beforehand.   Also Qatar in general is a wildcard to me, maybe that'll be a pointless fear in retrospect but seems possible some teams suffer more then others altering the odds drastically as the contest is ongoing.


What's the best long shot bet in this contest.  Straight away it seems the odds for Germany at 11x would be far too high not to be worth considering with a bet to cover that outcome.
2724  Economy / Economics / Re: Satellite data finds landfills are methane 'super emitters' on: August 18, 2022, 11:43:58 PM
Food is used to produce biogas and has been since the second world war when it was essential at times.   Its probably a tiny minority to the waste that occurs.   I was recently watching a program in India where this occurs and alot of the food is damaged or wasting crops that are not worth transporting back from market.  
  The obvious first usage is cattle feed for alot of food stuffs but since it can be mixed in with rubbish becoming a potential hazard, food is used for crop fertilizer also I think.  The Indian company I saw mashed and water the food, then fed it into a sealed tank with no air just massive amounts of bacteria designed to consume and produce this gas that can be burnt.  The gas was used on site to heat meals again for workers, but biogas can power cars and many things.
2725  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy coins at 17k weeks ago could be the best time to buy on: August 18, 2022, 10:42:17 PM
You might get another chance at this rate, we pull back to the 30 day average.  Seems we have stalled in recent nice uptrend and have to find support nearby or like retrace further the wider action since the June bottom price.   I did think we were alot more positive but that has to be proven not assumed to be correct.  
  Till we beat the recent high and hold it as a low presume neutral at best as the ongoing status for BTC progress.   We move about 2k lower if not holding here I think is a fair downside target.
2726  Economy / Speculation / Re: What is your fill the bag Bitcoin price? on: August 18, 2022, 10:01:02 PM
There is no one price because its more likely I would add over time then just one event.   Ideally its the same for anything I dont want to be required to purchase a block, BTC should be used and reused anyway so hopefully it will keep being true that the situation is liquid.   
   My recent worst case scenario is something like 10 to 14k area which is the same pricing we were considering in the summer of 2019 and it was very high then compared to just 6 months earlier on the lows of 2018.    So that pricing now would appear harsh and probably an inaccurate sharp extension long term compared to where the average is.
2727  Economy / Economics / Re: Crude Oil drops below $100 on: August 17, 2022, 11:59:18 PM
Alot of the price is speculation and will vary from that, you have a higher and lower boundary.  All I see right now is us hitting that lower boundary, I dont think its seriously restricted by excessive supply or lower demand globally.
  The price today as we begin Thurs trading in Japan is just the same kind of pricing as seen on Monday though the decline then was sharper, now its just negative churn as price action repeats and fails to take back higher prices.
  At the same time as Oil apparently pulls back we are seeing Natural gas prices move to maybe double what was true a year ago in some countries.    I dont think energy is going to fall in just one particular type as usage is generally universal via electricity production or similar business and national usage.
2728  Economy / Economics / Re: Why aren't people utilising cryptocurrency payment methods? on: August 17, 2022, 11:17:15 PM
I was using crypto payment most often about 5 years ago but since then alot more regulation came in to bring red tape and lots of questions about its usage by any normal business.  In some cases the reaction was to dissemble their ability to accept this payment type and also some natural churn of companies opening and closing.   Having the burden of red tape takes away alot of the appeal.   I dont think its totally suppressed but explains some of the lethargy to what would be quite natural growth.
   I think we do see more BTC usage but always it has to keep improving usability to the average person, widening the scope of its audience away from purely the tech focused enthusiast.  Some of its happened and yet much more progression has to occur still.
2729  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why there is so much resistance at $23k price on: August 17, 2022, 10:52:17 PM
Sounds good, hope you are correct.   If 23k has so much resistance we should not pass through it easily, confirming 23k as a low is definitely better then the alternative.      Ideally we would not have come close to 23k like this but I guess if we consider weekly bars, it can still we turn this around and recover to a bullish recovery.

23k was first found as resistance to the 'dead cat bounce' first attempt upwards on June 14 and its been doing sideways slide ever since.   So more of the same isnt too much of a shock, disappointment is the gruel you get dished regular  till the day you break free.
2730  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market > price on: August 17, 2022, 12:08:55 AM
My view for a while was we spend 2022 doing pretty much nothing.    No big gains, no great movement beyond just retreading our own footsteps because thats what the market requires and needs to establish and confirm itself as valid.    The market always matters more then what you or we want, tough luck like that but you take the gains so the pain is the price also its not free.
   Even with a negative view 40k its possible, base reasoning to argue is volatility.   Volatile pricing is like a Richter scale, its not helpful overall but it means we can gain big or lose large amounts and we're not over volatility in crypto and outside of its sector such as the Forex and Bond markets will express volatility.   That makes crypto able to reach 40k again without requiring optimism about the global economy.

The main point is that BTC isnt even especially harshly sold, its lost its top half or best gains and when I say lost I dont care about peak prices because they arent half as significant as the most regular pricing put in at the base of the chart.  The majority of volume is built in anticipation, the correct view of BTC is we are neutral and if you dont reflect that perfectly normal attitude you are the negative not the market.
  Markets dont serve you, the primary purpose to make sure they continue to operate and serve the majority and highest volume possible, whatever price is necessary .
2731  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: August 16, 2022, 11:42:47 PM
Its a remote chance but when its free and/or simple to obtain whats to lose.   My whole take on crypto is similar, dont risk too much and you wont ever feel too compelled to sell at low points which surely always are there to test the crowd.  The dynamics of something as wild as this market is like a bullwhip, its impossible but real how fast that moves.   Be reasonable and grateful in expectations will be fair.

Its ancient history now but way back every browser had an option to go text only, the reason being transfer speed could be so bad in places the website would not load at all; timeout.   Maybe less true now but since this website is so especially global, I imagine some are on phones in remote areas /traveling and appreciate the lite mode to the website.   It could be optional but its generally useful to have a straightforward unfussy website, Im a fan of both types swanky and simple if at all possible of course.
2732  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Just Plunged $700 Upon Reaching $9,060, Correction or Reason To Panic? on: August 16, 2022, 10:51:53 PM
I reckon its good perspective to look back at old price action.   This even connects to now, people did get shaken out of this maybe in Jan but in March certainly we know it plunged and hard to blame anyone who sold in that spike down.
  The action now, June lows that trend matches the low of Jan 2020.  Not sure it matters but the most significant trend will be the one with the most common points of incidence with price continuing regularly. 

  If wanting the big gloom, the lower point (trend) that would match March 2020 to now equates to a price of about 10k  ( also of Dec 2018).
2733  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Casino can play a role in changing fortune? on: August 15, 2022, 11:13:11 PM
The whole probability of FedEx taking off when it did was unlikely to begin with, right from the start it was dismissed as a pipe dream by his University.    The most consistent factor in his success is his plan and targets, when he had enough money he took money off the table according to his plan didnt get greedy but took a right turn into another gamble, his business.   Most likely he accepted he was going to lose it all but also equally it was worth the attempt in doing so.  
  This man had unique qualities and a hard work ethic I think, mainly I think he came through because he was realistic about how risky it all was.   The base case for his business was both valid and required at that point in time meaning the cost to play game literally had a purpose, main factor was he got very lucky!
2734  Economy / Gambling / Re: The History Of Gambling. on: August 15, 2022, 09:07:47 PM
3000 BC... it's just crazy  Shocked

It would not surprise me if we have been gambling 10's or thousands of years ago but perhaps not formally in precise ways, people have placed wagers on outcomes regularly and probably for as long as humans could talk and boast Cheesy   Risk and to gamble is a natural quite necessary instinct imo
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The first online casino is launched circa 1995 -1996.

Online but not completely.   Thats fairly early globally but in USA I would have guessed earlier, I guess AOL didnt condone such things.   The reason might be the restrictive laws in USA for a long time.
2735  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: August 15, 2022, 08:10:21 PM
My realistic aim was 3x just to be fair, there's alot of inertia or mass of tokens available to sell or buy and to turn it around after issuing many to the public will take a while.   Its probably possible to calculate how useful is this token, what's it yield vs price.  There is an alternative between holding the plain BTC or deploying some of that BTC into FUN to get a higher interest rate, eg. if you spent all BTC to get even a low tier and some interest boost its harder to justify.   The bulk of users cannot discard this consideration like somebody with $1m worth should just press the button already as a regular user.   Theres the benefits but I think alot of it is how long term higher balance people make up the population that the % gains are almost silly not to grab hold of. 
   tl;dr Its a year term to fully mature in premium benefits, I think we know the price moves quite slowly because of that.  3x is my first ambition and obviously it would be nice if the token price gained with BTC recovering.
2736  Other / Politics & Society / Re: High inflation is causing GLOBAL protests on: August 15, 2022, 06:03:57 AM
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have control over the money supply.

In this case its literally restriction of supply to wheat and other base ingredients.   No price can buy what isnt there and the richest people closest to the source of supply will take most of the food is the obvious result leaving very little food for more distant or those less able to pay.
   I guess control of the money supply gives that new money to those closest to the FED or similar, it is unfair bias.    However its also the case countries must have a capability to produce not just buy, food and other commodities are so unique they cannot be replaced easily.
2737  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Macau's Casino Operation Continues Despite The Latest Outbreak on: August 15, 2022, 12:41:17 AM
Its external revenue and people outside the country that are valuable to China.  If they get ill and take something home with them then it was their choice and trouble to carry.   Chinese citizens who gamble at Macau will be  restricted in capital and actual movements, so that secondary control is there should contagion become a worry.   China Vaccine is weaker apparently hence the gov continues a harsher policy then most large countries.
2738  Economy / Speculation / Re: do u think the BTC bottom is in...? on: August 15, 2022, 12:19:06 AM
I have no worry about Mt.Gox because its a long term well known event.   Perhaps some surprise prior years as to the amount recovered to distribute but now its well signaled and in theory its in the price.   Buy the rumor sell the news or here with additional supply, possibly its vice versa.
   September is a storm for markets possibly maybe buts its a wider deal in every asset seasonal somehow; markets regularly do this but not always, higher volume autumn then now for sure imo
2739  Economy / Economics / Re: EU countries agree deal to cut use of gas this winter on: August 14, 2022, 11:03:31 PM
They are blocked from importing directly from EU.    They have reserves to trade with other countries thats their plan.   Russia cannot even send their own assets towards remote sections like Kaliningrad as this too requires the assistance of NATO members who have sanctions against any Russian asset.

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Do you think this will help solve the EU gas shortage for now

Its a mitigating move, this whole incident is a test of EU unity as most countries are not nearly as deeply entrenched into a gas shortage as Germany managed to do.     Its common mistakes, countries dont value their own production ability enough.   Germany required a stack of new projects as priority one far longer back then the last decade, they took the path of least resistance and leant on nations outside EU and NATO.   I hope history records this mistake will keep occurring if we dont avoid it.
2740  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Japanese Animation Slot Machines on: August 14, 2022, 10:34:36 PM
There is touch enabled gloves for using with smart phone, surely works here.  

Surprised there isnt more of this kind of interaction as surely it improves player retention which equates to profits over an empty machine.   Touch sensitive screens is a thing for decades of course but maybe certain 'attract' aspects of a game are restricted under wider legislation.
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