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2741  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why is Bitcoin gaining this much fame despite it's restrictions? on: January 24, 2023, 03:48:03 PM
Bitcoin doesn't really have that much fame in my opinion. We hear about it in the media from time to time but I don't consider it "fame" because it doesn't have corresponding adoption and adoption is the only "fame" bitcoin needs or has. We all know bitcoin adoption is still very small globally.

As for the reason for whatever amount of "fame" bitcoin has, it is pretty obvious if you ask me. Bitcoin offers a very unique set of utilities that people can not find elsewhere. There is no other currency in the world that can give you financial sovereignty and appreciate in value over long term.
2742  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: BTC analysis today on: January 24, 2023, 03:05:14 PM
I loved the accent. That's about it. LOL

The dude in the videos is just drawing random lines on the chart with basic understanding of technical analysis (which doesn't work at all by the way) and makes random guesses that usually go both ways so that he can later say "we predicted this" and get more Youtube subscribers and visits. If you look at his videos from a month ago, he was doing exactly this (price may go up or down) then he created another video saying "we predicted this rise". Cheesy
2743  Other / Archival / Re: [POLL]What do you expect from Bitcoin in 2023? on: January 24, 2023, 02:53:55 PM
Another important aspect to take into account is that if the price of bitcoin goes up too quickly then this will help the bears on their attempts to take control of the market again,
Most of the bears are still in shock and many of them have lost a lot of money during the time price kept going up because they were all going against the trend and were selling bitcoin or worse shorting bitcoin while the price increased more and more. I don't think we are going to see them any time soon.
2744  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Main reason government won't fully accept bitcoin on: January 24, 2023, 02:45:48 PM
It is actually not so much about self interest but mostly about control. For example imagine if the government wanted to freeze someone's money (like the Canadian government did last year to its protesters) they can only do it if they have full control over their people's money otherwise if people were using something they have zero control over (like bitcoin) there is nothing they could do.
Ergo the governments are almost always against bitcoin and want to prevent bitcoin adoption, of course exceptions apply like El Salvador.
2745  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin vs CBDC - Print your own stickers on: January 24, 2023, 10:38:07 AM
They are not the same because CBDC can only be implemented if cash is removed from use.
Second, CBDC will have expiration date like coupons, and they will be connected with digital ID, that is something we don't have currently.

I see that you don't know anything about CBDC so I suggest reading more before you are making comparions with current fiat monetary system or something else.
Well 99.9% of CBDCs are not even in development stage, they are just being "researched". So there isn't anything to read about and we can't really say what they'll be like or even if they will be created some day!

The small handful that were actually released are in a small scale testing phase and I have not seen any reliable source that confirms the 2 main characteristics you claim the CBDCs have in your post. If you have a reliable source like to Chinese central bank that says it has an expiration date or it must replace cash please post it here.

The two others that I know of didn't have the two conditions either. The Venezuelan one was more of a scam to raise funds and cover the budget deficit for the government experiencing hyper inflation.
The Iranian one that is released and is in testing phase also doesn't have any kind of expiration date. It also can not replace cash in Iran even if it wanted to.

2746  Economy / Economics / Re: How can we end the *VOLATILITY OF BITCOIN* on: January 24, 2023, 10:06:55 AM
Is it just me or these topics OP creates in quick succession look suspicious as if they were something that an AI would create...
2747  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: State of secrets management, recommendations and improvement proposals 2022 on: January 24, 2023, 03:46:07 AM
Would you consider the permanently airgapped computer to offer the same level of protection as the hardware wallet or paper wallet?
An airgapped computer can provide the highest level of security but at the same time it is very difficult to create correctly (paper wallet is in the same category since you have to create it on an airgap computer) since you have to know how to create a "clean" environment that can be considered air-gap.
On the other hand hardware wallet is pretty easy to acquire and use while provide an acceptable level of security.
2748  Economy / Economics / Re: Comparing U.S. Federal Spending with Revenue - This is why fiat will fall on: January 23, 2023, 01:34:28 PM
It taxed the shit out of the wealthy and ran a surplus.
The day US was infected with capitalism and the rules kept changing for the wealthy minority was the day the downfall of the "empire" began.
One thing you missed was the gold standard was replaced by another standard using oil (ie. petrodollar) and they abused it by manipulating the oil price to pump and dump dollar. But we all know that you can only manipulate a market so many times before it stops working... specially since majority of oil sales are in the control of others.
2749  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin recent boom tracing back to Mt Gox + FTX/celsius/terra on: January 23, 2023, 01:25:12 PM
No offence, but it seems you are listing a lot of relatively isolated events to support the argument of Bitcoin's dumping -77.5% from it's highs in 2022. The irony being that in 2014 as well as 2018 Bitcoin dropped -83% from it's highs, so in reality Bitcoin has performed better (so far) within the 2022 bear market than in previous ones, given Bitcoin's bear markets remain part of a 4-year cycle. My point is if inflation had arrived in 2021 during Bitcoin's bull market,
Fair point. We should always see all the factors that can affect the market. The ones I listed are mostly in the same category affecting the economy but of course we should consider the bitcoin specific events like the 4-year cycles too.

I'm sure most (including myself) would of wrongly claimed that inflation is good for Bitcoin, while now many still hold the belief that inflation is bad for Bitcoin,
My theory is that inflation is still good for bitcoin but there is a difference between inflation and recession and inflation with recession.
What we have is the last one meaning both inflation and recession at the same time.
  • During inflation people still have their jobs even though price of every thing is going up so they still earn money as before and can can think about investing it and hedging against inflation.
  • But during recession unemployment grows and people are earning less money so their main concern is their cost of living not investment which is why they liquidate their assets more during a recession, that is selling bitcoin among other things causing the dump.

What we have or are heading towards is inflation with recession specially when they keep increasing interest rates (that causes recession) to lower inflation that is already higher but it doesn't work well enough.
2750  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How many people read crypto exchange terms and condition this day? on: January 23, 2023, 01:07:58 PM
To be fair terms and conditions are always too long and sometimes they use a certain language with legal terms and things like that which makes it difficult for most people to even fully understand what they are signing! In other words this is a general problem that is not specific to bitcoin or crypto exchanges. People don't read the ToS of applications they install, or websites they sign up with either.
Besides when it comes to exchanges, even if you read the whole thing, you can be sure that they have placed some wiggle room for themselves so that they can never be sued when they "scam you"...
2751  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the core dev team plan to fight Quantum computers? on: January 23, 2023, 05:59:44 AM
lets use the announced (yeas ago) RSA 768 'crack'
Bitcoin doesn't use RSA so your numbers are all irrelevant. You also need to read my post again, I never said overnight they would increase the speed to minutes. I even used the SHA1 example deliberately for those who are familiar with the story to understand the scenario better.

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oh and a reminder. the new tx format uses schnorr already. so a QC cant schnorr a schnorr, thus it cant use schnorr to gain trick efficiency if a bitcoin format is already using it to stay ahead
Schnorr is different from ECDSA but it is still not QC resistant.
2752  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Trade vs. HODL - avoid traps on: January 23, 2023, 05:09:42 AM
Hodling can work really well for certain altcoins as well. The only problem being that you need to actually pick the correct ones, in which is very difficult to do — it's pretty much like looking for a needle in a haystack.
Yeah, that is very rare and only works in very specific time frames like when the big altcoin is starting to get pumped for the very first time. For example buying the shitcoin called ETH in its early days and bag holding it for a while would have given you a lot of profit.

But generally speaking buying altcoins and bag holding them is never a good idea specially if you are investing your bitcoin in them. For example 0.15BTC invested in the same shitcoin called ETH 5 years ago is now worth only 0.07BTC which is more than 50% loss.
2753  Bitcoin / Electrum / Re: Arguments on make_seed command on: January 23, 2023, 04:59:46 AM
It's the language that would instantiate the mnemonic instance that would then determine the word-list to be used in it[1]. You'd use it by passing the short form of the language
Code:
'en':'english.txt',
'es':'spanish.txt',
'ja':'japanese.txt',
'pt':'portuguese.txt',
'zh':'chinese_simplified.txt'
When you pass an unrecognizable string like "ggsd^gsf", it will use the default one that is English[2].

[1] https://github.com/spesmilo/electrum/blob/7d52021d6b610f47b8e36ccdd571d5a1892e506e/electrum/commands.py#L337
[2] https://github.com/spesmilo/electrum/blob/6650e6bbae12a79e12667857ee039f1b1f30c7e3/electrum/mnemonic.py#L154
2754  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: ECDSA points with x-values between n and p on: January 23, 2023, 04:35:53 AM
You can derive more than one possible public key from a valid ECDSA signature and message but that is not related to malleability since the public key is always locked in the script that is being spent one way or another (it is unchangeable).
For example in a P2PKH script the hash of the public key is already locked in the scriptpub and if you use a different public key the transaction will be rejected on OP_EQUALVERIFY before it even reaches the signature verification step.

P.S. All 3 public keys you posted are valid since they are on secp256k1 curve.
2755  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: How secure is a brain wallet with a randomly generated password? on: January 22, 2023, 09:06:33 AM
Ordinarily yes, but OP has said he wants to print out the seed phrase he is using as a QR code so he can then put it on an object for his mother to display in her house. Going through this process probably exposes the seed phrase to the internet, but more importantly, anyone who visits his mom can scan the QR code and access the seed phrase in 2 seconds. That could be anything from families and friends to babysitters to trades people and so on. Hell, it could be someone looking through the window. I would consider that seed phrase to be highly insecure, and therefore the security of his whole set up hinges on his weak human generated password.
Yeah, but that's a storage issue not the creation process issue. The QR code could be placed behind some sort of seal that has to be broken to reveal the key itself like printed at the bottom under a seal while the front has the QR for the address. Or simply store the seed separately from the object that is used as decoration.
2756  Economy / Economics / Re: Comparing U.S. Federal Spending with Revenue - This is why fiat will fall on: January 22, 2023, 09:01:03 AM
It is not an accident that Bitcoin was created after the 2008 crash, someone saw the flaw in having an unlimited/uncapped currency and tried to create a new currency that could also become money some day by having a supply cap.

It is not just US either even though US exports its inflation abroad. It is every country out there that is printing money to cover their deficits and cause inflation over time. Check out the following website to see the horrible state global economy is at: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
2757  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: January 22, 2023, 08:21:28 AM
And a simple proof - and provide here photos of utility bills from Germany,
Your problem is reading too much propaganda that it has taken away your ability to think for yourself. You don't even bother doing any research! If everything is so dandy then why the hell almost 2 million people are protesting in France? It's not just because of retirement age.

The cost of energy has gone up in Germany like anywhere else, the household bills on the other hand have gone up about 40% for electricity and 70% for heating according to official stats (only Germans know the real increase). But what the official stats don't tell you is that because Germany had a much bigger economy the German government is now spending hundreds of billions of euros to keep the household bills down. Something that will show up as higher inflation in near future.

Of course many small businesses in Germany haven't been so lucky like Vatter bakery with 35 branches that has had their gas bill rise 1200% and was at the brink of shutting down. Article is from September 2022 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/19/recession-fears-germany-energy-costs-business-olaf-scholz-gas
Read the article, it has more eye opening stuff.
2758  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Mini bull run or short Squeeze (manipulation) ? on: January 22, 2023, 07:51:52 AM
Realistic value? So in your opinion at what level should it be staying if all the dump made few months ago was just a solid manipulation. We can say it is, but some institution are probably unload their bags due to the recession that we have experience and we all knew cash is the best weapon during recession.
It is tough to say but it is clear that $16k was way below the intrinsic value of bitcoin whether you want to compute it based on the cost of mining which some people do or based on the historical price movements where $20k was the last bubble's peak we saw back in 2017 and price never goes below it. Not to mention with all the adoption we had price had to have gone up not go down. But when a lot of bitcoin is unloaded on a small market with thinned order books, the price tends to go below the intrinsic value very easily.
2759  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Mini bull run or short Squeeze (manipulation) ? on: January 22, 2023, 06:18:32 AM
When each and every analysis was bearish on the bitcoin and everyone was expecting bitcoin to dump to 12K-14K$, the bitcoin start pumping and reached 23K in few days time.
Just because random people on the internet say a bunch of stuff that doesn't mean those stuff are correct. That doesn't even mean they believe in them! Back in 2017 everyone was saying price is going to reach $100k just because price was on the rise for some time and in about a month went up 2x.

It's the same story these days, just because price dropped for a while a lot of newbies who claim to be "analysts" was too caught up in the drop that thought it should continue indefinitely.

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Also, when we look at the fundamentals, they are also all bearish with events like Luna Crash, FTX Crash, Stable coins fund, Gemini and other companies' bankruptcy.
Most of it had very little to do with bitcoin or its price although they usually cause weak hands' panic sells.

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Also, we do not have any positive news about bitcoin recently, do we?
Good news is not the only reason leading to a rise.

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In these times, the bitcoin to pump makes me wonder whether it is due to manipulation and short squeeze to liquidate many short positions opened on bitcoin?
Bitcoin is not pumping (pumping demands a follow up dump). It is rising and in my opinion the main reason is simply because it was undervalued (a reverse bubble) so it had to correct and go back to realistic values.
After all the dump itself was manipulation to push the price to unrealistically low levels.
2760  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the core dev team plan to fight Quantum computers? on: January 22, 2023, 05:23:41 AM
P2PK is at risk.
The whole Bitcoin would be at risk not just certain outputs. You see if some day an algorithm is found and hardware improves so much to solve ECDLP at reasonable time it would just be a matter of [short] time before they can reverse any public key including the public keys revealed in the transactions waiting in the mempool for a couple of minutes to be confirmed.

From an economical standpoint if suddenly public keys are being reversed for certain outputs and the coins start moving there will be panic sell followed by market crash followed by hashrate dropping followed by insecure blockchain...

In my opinion what we will see in the future regarding ECDLP is going to be similar to SHA1. When it was considered weak, slowly everyone started moving away from SHA1 and it took years to switch to new replacement algorithms. The attack itself and the collision became feasible a couple of years after the switch.
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