I'm not a dev, so I can be corrected on this one, but to my understanding the solution is for mtgox to check their outputs and keep track of them, before deciding to trust the claim and resend the tx.

You're technically correct on that point. But it's only one exchange, mtgox, that allowed this limitation to grow unchecked into a major problem, you agree? The problem is removed if only sufficiently* confirmed transactions are accepted. (* I'll admit I don't know how deep into the chain they need to be before the risk is neutralized)


EDIT: I'll admit, I reacted unfairly to your first post on this. You did, in fact, only point out it a real flaw. But maybe you can see that this thread is about discussing mtgox' responsibilities. And they *are* fully responsible for not locally adressing and containing a know flaw. That's the basic point I would make here.

Reading comprehension isn't your strong side, huh?


Don't blame on the protocol what can be contained locally.


@Blitz

I don't share your cynicism on this one. I'm not "butthurt" the slightest, in fact, I profited nicely of this swing. But mtgox *is* in a very real sense a major factor in limiting usefulness and reliability of BTC as a whole. It would benefit everyone if they were taken out of the equation.

I always thought one would quickly lose interest in improving things (or basically: setting any challenging goals to themselves) once they're sitting on a 10k? 100k? BTC fortune like Karpeles does.

/2cents

I agree with your conclusion (no real, lasting rally tomorrow), but you're completely wrong about your reasons. Silk Road didn't take place "during an uptrend". Go check your charts, please. It happened after a 2 month period of very, very cautious upwards movement, after the post-April bear market, and more precisely: happened as that "cautious uptrend" was faltering and we were slightly declining again.

It *was* the perfect timing, because buying pressure has built up back then, and it was released in one big show of support at the low price level that the SR crash brought us to. Plus of course the news item itself (criminal usage of BTC removed -- not really of course, but that's the news).

So, the difference between now and then is not that we were in an uptrend, but that we had pent up buying pressure after a long period of very cautious movement. And I don't see such a built up pressure right now. not yet, at least.

As I said earlier in the wall thread (in similar words):

The ambiguous phrasing of the gox press release wasn't coincidence, of course.

I'm not even talking about a "conspiracy" style explanation that they're trying to manipulate their way out of a shortage of coins by bringing down the price and rebuying coins cheaper (so they can serve their customers). Makes sense, but even I don't think Karpeles would go that low.

No, the real explanation for the phrasing is:

Blame transfer.

Gox is willing to damage the reputation of the *entire* Bitcoin ecosystem, so *they* don't have to take the blame for not implementing their wallet software properly.


Seriously: To anyone still using mtgox -- stop. Withdraw your money (or try it), withdraw your coins (or try it), and let them die off.

We need mtgox removed from the system for Bitcoin to grow further.

You realize that wasn't coincidence, right?

I'm not even talking about the "conspiracy" style explanation that they're trying to manipulate their way out of a shortage of coins by bringing down the price and rebuying coins cheaper (so they can serve their customers). Makes sense, but even I don't think Karpeles would go that low.

No, the real explanation for the phrasing is:

Blame transfer.

Gox is willing to damage the reputation of the *entire* Bitcoin ecosystem, so *they* don't have to take the blame for implementing their wallet software properly.

Seriously: To anyone still using mtgox -- stop. Withdraw your money (or try it), withdraw your coins (or try it), and let them die off.

We need mtgox removed from the system for Bitcoin to grow further.

Big fat -1.

I hate mtgox as much as anyone else, but as long as there's trading volume on there, they should be listed.

A charting site isn't a moral court: it shows prices. If people still trade on gox, btcwisdom should show it.

The tl;dr for todays viewers is: mtgox' sloppy implementation of transfers is blamed on the Bitcoin protocol as a whole, taking the entire market down in the process, for their own personal gains.

ftfy

I've said it already in another thread: the USD premium came about because goxtarders believed coins were the "safer" option. Then coin withdrawal delay started, and it became clear being in btc doesn't help either. Hence: uncertainty. Hence: panic. Hence: irrational market activity, so in short: your question is based on a wrong premise ("isn't it irrational to sell now?"). Answer is: yes, but there's no alternative to this type of irrational behavior right now (if you were dumb enough to stay on gox after month and month of bad news about them)

You lost a lot of good will these last week or two, bitfinex.

I will point out, non-gloatingly but matter of factly, (and I don't give a f$ck about the verbal abuse I'll get from Giancarlo) that in the past 2 months, Bitstamp tends to behave *a lot better* under pressure than Bitfinex.

You are beyond competent.

Did you ever consider opening an exchange?

I'm not kidding, by the way.

Good thing then that there's the good ole U S of A that needs to buy those natural resources like a "real industrialized economy" in order to run that fleet of mobility scooters to move around their population of morbidly obese people inside Walmart, huh ^__^

Might I ask why you trade on bitfinex? I signed up there some months ago, like the *tools* they provide, sure, but they struck me as really unreliable (not enough fiat on bitstamp, engine faltering under pressure, etc), so I do 99% of my trading on bitstamp directly, which behaves much better IMO under load. Or is the ability to leverage really that important to you?

and done. +60 btc as a result of karpeles asshattery. not sure if I should hate or love the guy :/

You got to love Mark Karpeles.

Here's a man who doesn't mind taking the entire world (well: btc world) with him on the way down, as long as it buys him an extra day or two of breathing room.

Sometimes I think E.Mucus is right: bitcoiners are among the most psychopathic creatures on earth.

(I don't really agree. But we have our fair share of psychos, i'll say that much.)

One last update in here.

It's increasingly obvious to me that we are in some variation of the downwards channel I pointed out in my first post. I'm not going to claim I know the exact parameters of it, but I believe it's similar enough to the ones below (or the one in my OP).





In addition, we just saw a daily MACD centerline crossover, after hovering around the centerline for a while already. It's not inevitably a confirmation that we're in a bear market, but it sure takes a solid amount of sideways movement and decline to get to this point.





Next, daily CMF turned negative, for the first time during the post-December consolidation. Note the similarity to June 2013, where the same event marked the final leg down of the post-April consolidation/bear market (the downtrend lasted for about 1 more month back then).








Finally, looking at the medians of median-price range during major swings, we now crossed below the lowest of those middle points I track (corresponding to the 2nd violent downward movement following the December double top). Comparing this to the 2013 consolidation period, the picture is difficult to compare, I admit. In 2013 we saw a declining series of those middle points, while the picture now is less clear to me, but one thing is clear: we are now below the lowest of the medians, and previously this corresponded to a continuation of previous downtrends.





Putting it all together, I see more and more evidence we're in another downward leg of the post-December consolidation period. If you're optimistically inclined, I will add that it might be the *final* leg, so whether you plan to sit it out (i.e. hold) or not is up to you. To me it strongly looks like, unless we pick up some serious upwards momentum tomorrow or on Monday, we're in for another period of decline (which I can see to last up to another month). Note though the conditional above: the situation can turn around if buying pressure suddenly reappears (maybe if we get some great news from gox on Monday?), but more sideways action or more decline in the coming days makes the bearish case much more likely, in my opinion.

You know, sometimes I remember why I don't have you on ignore. This is one of those times