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Didn't actively trade on bitfinex for a while, but I keep checking up on it once in a while, as I'm still interested in it.
Can someone give me a high level summary of how the bug/hack is being resolved by the owners? They rolled back all trades from the time in question, or only a part of them? And I'm trying to understand: it's a full rollback (i.e. no gains are credited from that time, but also no losses)? Or are people that got margin called going to have to suck up a loss as a result of the hack?
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Theymos, I'm sorry to say the lifting of the 'newbie' restrictions has made the board noticeably worse. To the point where I am seriously considering to stop using "my" subforum (speculation).
The number of new accounts aggressively opening useless threads is through the roof. I never had to put so many people on ignore as in the last week. And all of that, despite the subforum being run by a very competent mod (Blitz).
All in all, it really backfired, and I sincerely ask you to consider adjusting your decision.
How about the following: Allow sub-forum mods to set a certain 'activity' value that a user has to have reached before he can post in this forum, and keep at least one forum unrestricted ('beginners' comes to mind), so the newbies can earn their activity points there.
I'm not proposing anything elitist here, so maybe you could rule out too high activity numbers being set for a sub-forum, but some "credence check" really seems necessary to keep signal/noise in acceptable levels.
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@OP, I saved your ass last time when you wanted to buy in the 820s by saying we would see 700 soon. And I still don't think it is a good time to buy.
The OP seems a near certainty to get slaughtered. He aint even bought any BTC yet and he is getting all fixated with all the Bitcoin to a bazillion USD within the next 12 months theories, backed up with log charts with lines drawn on them of course. He has got his hands on 12K USD, and imagining what life would be like if he could multiply that by 10, 20, 30, etc Bitcoin will probably trend at $700 range for a few days. The OP will get impatient and will convince himself that Bitcoin has shown strong bottom support at $700 and that the trend has reversed. He will look to users of this forum for the bias confirmation that he wants to hear and he will of course get it in bucket loads. His attention span and personal bias will prevent him from even reading two single sentences from anyone who advises that caution be exercised. The OP will likely start entering the market right at this range. Within a few weeks, he will find himself around 30% underwater. He will look to this forum for moral support, he will again get to told to HODL, and be commanded to put as much new fiat as he can muster into these unbelievably cheap Bitcoins. Then Bitcoin will really tank as the true final capitulation hits. He will be 70% underwater by then, at which point, he will sell everything. As Bitcoin bounces back, he will jump back in with the little capital that he has left, right at the top of the bounce. Bitcoin will then slump back down. He will sell taking a further 40% haircut. Bitcoin will spend a period of time in doledrums before building up support for another bull-run. A bull-run the OP will not be in a position to take advantage off. Nice writeup. I like your new style better than your mouth-foamy period :D. But "70% underwater"? Really? $213 per coin, can I quote you on that :) |
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Also as someone who joined the coin game relatively later, I have to ask a legitimate question, why is it so many bitcoin holders put full faith and their savings into a former Magic the Gathering trading card site run by incompetent boobs yet have spent the last 2 months making fun of meme coins, calling alt coins scam coins and what not? You trusted thousands of dollars to scammers overseas who won't let you withdraw your own money for months yet make fun of a coin with a dog on it? It makes no sense. I mean what did you think would happen, that a bunch of basement dwelling 2nd rate IT guys could become an effective multi-billion dollar international finance operation overnight? It's madness! Agreed. I can't believe anybody has been stupid enough to put cash into Gox since Spring 2013. The cash in there is almost certainly "legacy" money. But what's amazing is that people have left their coins there. I'd really like to hear from somebody who did that. Why did you do it?!!! What surprises me the most is the reason against switching to Bitstamp, one that I've heard a few times by now: "Hell no, I'm not going to send my money to some shitty rathole country like Slovenia!" Said the clowns who kept on happily sending their money and coins into the shitty rathole exchange mtgox. I mean, I can see how you want to have some basic level of trust in the country in which the exchange is located, but even the most superficial research would have given you the following the results: Slovenia (EU member, part of Eurozone in fact), UK (country of registration), Italy (country of origin of their bank -- Unicredit Slovenia being a subsidiary of the Italian Unicredit). You can start ranting about how Slovenia has this and that problem, or how you don't trust Italian banks, or some bullshit, but I *did* this kind of research a year ago and concluded it was still way more reliable than a hacked together exchange in Japan. We'll see, Bitstamp might go down and I'll eat my words, but I don't see any signs for it at the moment. |
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agreed, if phrased like that. we're in a consolidation phase strongly leaning towards bear market, and only a select few uberbulls don't see it like that. but then again, as long as they hold and don't sell in the end, they're golden, the primary upwards trend will continue eventually
Not necessarily … "From my point of view, the investors are the big gamblers. They make a bet, stay with it, and if all goes wrong, they lose it all" - Jesse Livermore  Sure. The first premise is you invested at most what you can afford to lose, and the second premise is that btc hasn't peaked out yet. And, frankly, you don't have to be an uber bull to agree that, probably, 1200 USD isn't the end of the capitalization event -- that is, assuming non-catastrophic news, like outright ban of btc, major cryptographic flaws, etc |
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[snip]
+1 Best analysis I've seen all day Can anyone explain what this chart shows / predicts to us plebs? It shows pretty much nothing. Or at least not what TERA thinks it shows. It's a weekly MACD crossover. Problem is, at that time frame the MACD is so lagging that, if you look at the actual chart, if you would have sold at the crossover of the 1w MACD back then (probably at around 100 to 110), you better had been on your toes because price never went long below 70 again, and the MACD was still in deep red territory as the price went back to 150! tl;dr Don't rely on a single indicator, especially not if it moves at the speed of molasses I don't use the really long indicators as buy or sell signals either. Rather, they are more like dont-buy and dont-sell indicators. I will have already used a shorter indicator to buy or sell already by the time it has happened. However, what the long indicator does tell me, is, that there is no rush to buy back in right here, right around the time that is crossed and the area that it crossed - this is a resistance level now. I should look for a lower price using a shorter indicator. agreed, if phrased like that. we're in a consolidation phase strongly leaning towards bear market, and only a select few uberbulls don't see it like that. but then again, as long as they hold and don't sell in the end, they're golden, the primary upwards trend will continue eventually |
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[snip]
+1 Best analysis I've seen all day Can anyone explain what this chart shows / predicts to us plebs? It shows pretty much nothing. Or at least not what TERA thinks it shows. It's a weekly MACD crossover. Problem is, at that time frame the MACD is so lagging that, if you look at the actual chart, if you would have sold at the crossover of the 1w MACD back then (probably at around 100 to 110), you better had been on your toes because price never went long below 70 again, and the MACD was still in deep red territory as the price went back to 150! tl;dr Don't rely on a single indicator, especially not if it moves at the speed of molasses |
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Sooo... you traded that swing at least a tiny bit (to make up for the lost coin)? |
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I tend to agree.. if volume remains low while going up, and high while going down - logic would dictate that there are more people wanting to sell than buy. And down we go.
Looking at google trends, there can't be that much new money coming in.. and that's a problem. If I'm not mistaken, the big rallies have often, if not always, corresponded with a rise in the google searches. We've been declining for some time now.
Google trends is, as has been repeated ad nauseam, a lagging indicator. And nobody (I hope ) is assuming we're in a rally right now. Google trends will pick up once the consolidation/bear market is over. And that question can't be settled by looking at Google trends IMO. |
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I like your style, sg  |
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I'll just leave an updated pic here   Channels work well until they don't, but they're usually pretty safe to bet on jup. don't know about you, but I made nice profit on tonight's swing so far. now, let's see if we're indeed stabilizing/recovering, or another panic wave follows. |
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Currently reading Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist's 'Technical Analysis'. Don't have much to compare it against, but I like the solid, methodological style, similar to the textbooks I'm used to.
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Re: Any chance that's our current channel?
There is no such thing as a 'chance', because there are no such things as 'contingent events'. There is only one possibility: the one and only possible reality. There aren't other ones.
Really? That's your response? Phenomenological speculations? I had you tagged as a bit more insightful in the past. It was a rhetorical question. I could have also written "hey, look at the depressing channel we're in". and, looking at it again, some hours later, waddayathink where we found support? EDIT: before someone complains: yes, the original channel is broken. but closing above it, twice, within a tiny error margin, is likely not a coincidence.  |
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Wow back @700... I would not wonder if we will be back at $800 tomorrow... If it is really so easy to manipulate the BTC price by whales, then BTC is not an alternative for FIAT.
If 'rather unsurprisingly wild price swings during an unprecedented, world wide, mostly unregulated capitalization event' automatically look to you like 'manipulation', I'd recommend leaving this market, or at least putting your coins into cold storage and not looking at the charts. |
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Gox is below bitstamp? How is that possible?
Are fiat withdrawals working again?
It's actually not that difficult to see why. Put yourself in the shoes of one of the poor sods who didn't heed the warnings (and warnings. and warnings. and warnings...) to get out of that shithole mtgox. Until recently it was accepted that they have a fiat problem, ergo: a USD/BTC premium, in the range of 10 to 15%, because the goxtards felt holding btc is more secure. Now it turns out gox is one step away from going belly up, as they have problems with the coin withdrawal as well... What to do? Buy coins (that you can't withdraw), or sell coins (to get fiat you can't withdraw either). The result is really pretty simple: panic. And panic, in any market, leads to a crashing price of the asset, plain and simple. Basically yes. But how do you explain the lower volume than bitstamp? It's in line with the overall declined volume on mtgox. Also, it is the highest volume since the December 18 flash crash, across *all* exchanges, including gox. But what do you expect? Many people left gox already, those that are left are scratching their heads. The panic behavior you can see on gox, even at comparably low volume, translates into selling pressure on the other exchanges, at a higher volume. Not all is lost, though. As I've said in my 'channel' thread, I see the fight for 680 (stamp price) isn't over yet, so I see a good change we'll settle here for now, or go up from here (not 'to da moon' up... just a bit :D) |
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Gox is below bitstamp? How is that possible?
Are fiat withdrawals working again?
It's actually not that difficult to see why. Put yourself in the shoes of one of the poor sods who didn't heed the warnings (and warnings. and warnings. and warnings...) to get out of that shithole mtgox. Until recently it was accepted that they have a fiat problem, ergo: a USD/BTC premium, in the range of 10 to 15%, because the goxtards felt holding btc is more secure. Now it turns out gox is one step away from going belly up, as they have problems with the coin withdrawal as well... What to do? Buy coins (that you can't withdraw), or sell coins (to get fiat you can't withdraw either). The result is really pretty simple: panic. And panic, in any market, leads to a crashing price of the asset, plain and simple. |
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@BitcoinWisdom:
One small request... I know you try to keep your system as fast and low-weight as possible, but could maybe consider raising the maximum average period count? Right now the maximum value seems to sit around 300?
I don't know how much more load it would put on your system, but I like to compare averages across different periods, so for example looking at a 100 day MA on a 2h scale means I would like to be able to enter a value as high as 1200.
Any chance you could raise the limit, to say 2000? Ot would that slow down your system too much?
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I've stood up for you guys several times in the past, defending you against scamming accusation. So I hope you will take into account now if I say the following:
Ditch Mtgox.
I asked you to include price analysis of other exchanges before already, and your answer always was "mtgox is the main exchange still". You were wrong back then, but, oh boy, are you wrong with that assessment now.
As long as your analysis is based on the warped numbers of an illiquid, dying exchange, I will have to ignore them.
EDIT: to be clear, I'm not going back on what I previously said: your service is honest and worked quite okay in the past. but your reliance on mtgox data makes it useless to me, unfortunately.
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I love it when a plan comes together. Well, sort of.
Looks like we're fighting for ~680 (the long running daily EMA I mentioned above), but I'm not convinced we'll stay here tbh. That we went through 720 with almost no resistance is not a good sign.
(I'm using Bitstamp prices, by the way. mtgox is dead, and those who still use it, be it for trading or price analysis have no one to blame but themselves)
~680 will probably continue to be a point of support/resistance, but if we can't hold it, I expect the trend residing currently at ~590 to provide support (it did so on Dec 18). In the medium term, I can see us trading in a range of 530-630, based on what looks like plausible analogues to the post-April '13 recovery period to me.
Note that I'm not saying we'll go straight to the 530/630 range. In fact, we might not touch it at all. It's just a target range I see as likely if we don't hold the current range today/tomorrow. Prices below 500 are extremely unlikely atm though. Slightly less unlikely, but still not what I would expect is a "full" recovery back to 800.
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Although 99.9% of alt coins are stupid or outright scams, I think they should have a place. Alt coins can be a hedge against any entity that thinks it could crush bitcoin. Any serious attempt to do so would just result in the ascendancy of another coin. My problem is that it has become almost impossible to sort through the dozens of script-kitty announcements that junk up the forums. There has to be a way to do both. Could we: - Allow blocking of some areas? kinda like an ignore list for forum sections.
- Keep posts in the alt section from showing in the recent posts list?
- Set up another related/linked domain for alts? altcointalk.org is available.
- Other?
1 and 2 are already possible in your profile settings. There is a Ignore Board Option. How can you not know this? Really? I did not know this.  Also, @surfer43. 99.9% IS way to high. I don't know what percent of alts are serious attempts to create a viable coin. I shouldn't have used numbers. Way too high. Even dogecoin isn't a scam coin, and only 'stupid' insofar as it probably won't be alive in a year or two from now. But that's the beauty of our little experiment we have going here: the market will decide that, not forum censorship (except for the most vile cases of scams, of course, which should be removed) And thats begs the age old question, for what do you consider a coin being a scam? must it be blatantly premined, or would you consider mass marketing and exchange spamming of add requests as scandalous and meeting the criteria for a scam? to me it seems like dogecoin and many other coins that use marketing or other meaningless forms of hype and manipulation to determine their coins value, making it inherently a scam. Its an issue of perspective largely, so some might disagree but if you are using the oxford dictionary to describe a coin such as doge or quarkcoin, or even megacoin for all its advancement against 51% attacks, they are all fundamentally overhyped flashmine/premine fests and therefor must be considered scams. there can be picking and choosing what constitutes a scam when you are assigning labels, regardless of the popularity of said coins, and this alone provides solid support for the premise that the Alt section should be removed or the rules for posting greatly altered. I am personally of the opinion a clean break needs to be made to give alternate currencies a new home, just to increase the quality and prominence of bitcoin related posts and discussions. I don't think it needs to be all black and white. shades of grey, baby. So, first, to qualify as a *scam* coin would require extraordinary proof, but if it is determined to be a scam (as in: hard evidence the creators plan to scam investors, like, say, launch an IPO, then run with the money), the scam should be labeled and removed, as if it were any other product. Now, what is probably a more appropriate label for something like doge is *spam* coin. And there we will need, IMO, slightly more flexible criteria. Here's a rhetorical question: what is the 'hard', objective difference between a spam coin and a successful crypto? Answer: there is no objective *inherent* difference. It's a matter of what the market determines through trading it. So why not take that into account? New coin creators can advertise their coin *once*, in one thread. Then watch and see. If the price and trade volume of the coin picks up speed, the heavy restrictions on posting about and promoting it will be lifted, gradually. If not, it stays contained to that one thread. And endless bumping of threads and an abundance of 'promotion' thread will never be okay, no matter how much your project is picking up speed. It's kind of common sense, isn't it? |
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