Yes, morvillz7z had ML bets, but iirc there was some discussion earlier as well, that you better not place any bets on teams out of PO contention, because they will go for better draft position etc.. And even in sports betting in general you have often hear this reasoning of teams having nothing to play for. But these are all pro athletes and despite them earning big money, they want to win, they want to compete* And it's easier to perform, when no one expects anything from you anyway.

These ATS stats do include ML dog wins though, but are not explicitly mentioned. And when a dog beats the spread, you can normally assume this being a close game, unless you have high-ish double digit HC's. So you will at least have some near heart-attacks when going blindly on the must-win teams.

*The Jets beating the Rams was a huge surprise to me and I thought till the very end they would still (being told to) lose this. I think they tried, but they failed

---

Agree From a psychological point of view, it's a bit harder to swallow the fav-multi losing imo, because somehow you think it's more likely to win this than a single >4 underdog - although they have the same probability. As much as the athletes have their mental game, betting people have to face mental battles as well

Für den Verkauf von Coins -> Ethereum entstehen dann Steuern, falls ein Profit erzielt wurde. Freigrenze gilt natürlich Die USDT sind dann nach einem Jahr steuerfrei, obwohl das wohl keinen Unterschied macht, denn mit Tether ists schwer Kursgewinne zu erzielen^^


Immer wenn du unterjährig tradest, musst du Steuern zahlen. Spielt auch keine Rolle, ob Krypto vs Krypto oder Krypto vs FIAT. Wenn dein Portfolio so angewachsen ist und das nicht nur Kursgewinne von Coins sind, die du länger als 1 Jahr hälst, dann ist deine Steuerschuld sicher nicht gering.

David hat sich zu Wort gemeldet: My departure has been greatly exaggerated

Ist bisschen schwere Kost, wie man es von David gewohnt ist. Hätte mit einem etwas schärferen Ton gerechnet, aber die Bitterkeit und einige Seitenhiebe kann man verständlicherweise schon rauslesen. Dom und Navin bekommen am Ende nochmal ihr Fett weg und David wird dem IOTA Ökosystem erhalten bleiben.

Saw this tweet today:


Source: https://twitter.com/Byeweekpicks/status/1339176528400293893

And this kind of confirms my general feeling regarding teams that basically have nothing play for vs teams that have everything to play for. As in every other sport American Football has a mental component and it keeps growing with all the (social) media coverage increasing year by year; you just can't hide and every move/mistake you make is surveilled and publicly discussed. This adds a lot of pressure, if you have something to lose and players/teams can get very tight under these circumstances.
The divisional matchups at the end of a season don't help the PO contenders, since every division opponent likes to spoil the party, while having nothing to lose themselves. They probably even play a bit harder and more motivated in these scenarios

-

Reminder: There will be NFL this Friday (Saints - Vikings) and a triple header on Saturday (Lions - Bucs / Cardinals - 49ers / Raiders - Dolphins).

Here is what I researched

Arsenal FC - Chelsea FC
Atletico Mineiro MG - Coritiba FC PR
Belenenses SAD - Sporting CP
FC Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar
Fortaleza EC CE - CR Flamengo RJ
Fulham FC - Southampton FC
Leeds United - Burnley FC DRAW
Leicester City FC - Manchester United FC
Manchester City FC - Newcastle United FC
RSC Anderlecht - K Beerschot VA
Sheffield United FC - Everton FC DRAW
Trabzonspor - Galatasaray SK DRAW
Watford FC - Norwich City FC DRAW
West Ham United FC - Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC - Tottenham Hotspur FC

Just 4 home wins and 4 draws is a bit meh, but I couldn't help it. The thing I like about this weeks edition: I have a super poor record for the Friday evening games and there is none this time, so I can't get it wrong

Screenshot

I am a bit surprised with the odds for Düsseldorf today, would have expected below 1.70. After quite some struggles beginning of the season, they are now one of the hottest teams in 2. Bundesliga. Reason for this is finally finding their offensive rhythm, scoring 11 goals in their last four matches. Now Essen themselves are in pretty good shape and are leading the table comfortable, but this is only 4th division and there is a huge-ish quality difference after all. This is a little derby, which probably adds an extra motivation for Essen, but in the end Düsseldorf should prevail here. A draw and overtime is not unlikely, but I see Düsseldorf advancing to next round here today. Odds are above 1.50 for this, which is good imo.

Apart from Wolfsburg - Sandhausen, the other games look very interesting too and we can expect quite some drama. Wouldn't surprise me to see four penalty shootouts in the late games.

Well, he managed another upset yesterday, when he sent former champion Lewis home. And he was super emotional afterwards, because a) he lost his mother this year and b) his brother had a stroke two days ago. With Rob Cross losing as well, there were two big names being eliminated yesterday.
The game between Petersen and Lennon was a real shit show They both missed around 30 times on the double each.....if Lennon would have been a bit more lethal, Petersen would have been out too.

I like Aspinall for today, but a bit too low for a single bet. I don't really trust Smith and Chisnall at these odds under these special circumstances in their first showing. Will maybe take Boulton tb Bunting with it. 

For Sunday I already have my eyes on King tb de Sousa @2.90. Huybrechts tb Searle could be good too.

1. Leicester City FC vs. Manchester United FC - 1
2. Fulham FC vs. Southampton FC - 2
3. Aston Villa FC vs. Crystal Palace FC - X
4. Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC - 2
5. Sheffield United FC vs. Everton FC - 1
6. Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC - 1

7. Leeds United vs. Burnley FC - 2
8. West Ham United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC - 1
9. Liverpool FC vs. West Bromwich Albion - 1
10. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC - X

Betnomi username: tyKiwanuka

1) Parlays are only good, if all (or the majority) of selections have value, because you multiply the value with it.
2) I am a firm believer, that there is very few value to be found pre-match in the big leagues these days. If you are not dedicating 24/7 to this, you won't be able to find valuable bets longterm.

So I would strongly advise against playing these kind of parlays, you will lose Go with single bets for a start and see how you do. Even better is, if you search for some niche and become an expert there. This can be other/smaller sports or smaller leagues/lower divisions in football.

If you just do this for fun, then you can play those parlays of course, but don't complain about losing then

Some games to catch up

Roma - Torino
Red Card: Torino in 14th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 3-1

After this early red card, there could be only one winner. Roma was already huge odds-favourite going into the game, so after the red card, the odds must have been ultra low (didn't check). Nevertheless another "win".

---

Osasuna - Villareal
Red Card: Osasuna in 19th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 1-3

I took my chances here, but the odds were pretty poor tbh and I sweated a bit after Osasuna made it 1-2 with 20min to go.

---

Brighton - Sheffield Utd
Red Card: Sheffield in 40th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-1

This is iirc the first time, where it did go wrong. And I lost money, since I got involved for what I thought an ok-ish 1.55 (pre-match they were 1.9x). But Sheffield was able to score the lead in second half then and Brighton was only able to equalize late. You can't win them all and if this doesn't happen all too often, I am still hopeful

---

West Brom - Aston Villa
Red Card: West Brom in 36th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-3

Didn't check the odds after the red card, but I guess they were around 1.15 maybe. Villa took some time to seal the game (84th and 88th minute), but another win.

---

This Brighton loss made me doubt things a bit and with Roma, Villareal and Villa being super low after the red cards, this would have been a loss overall.

Thank you, my pleasure


Thank you. It's actually not that much work all in all; putting the picks into the table probably takes the most time and I am always scared to do a mistake After that I just put in the result (1X2) and make the wrong picks red - the rest is done via formulas/formatting. But as said earlier, I can give access to all regular/longterm users, so when you PM me an email address, you can improve/pimp the table, if you like. And you (or anyone else) can be my backup, when I am not available^^

I just don't want to make it editable for everyone, since there are weird people everywhere, who like to destroy things.

I don't think is luck tbh. You can't get lucky that often, not even Bayern can That Leverkusen game showed very well, why Bayern seems to get lucky more often than others: They wanted it more, attacked relentlessly and put in hard work. All this, while Leverkusen was just looking to defend the draw, which works against other teams, but not against Bayern. So it was one of the few times I was actually happy seeing Bayern score a late winning goal, because Leverkusen's approach was just pathetic, if they want to be a top team. And I have no idea, why Leverkusen parked the bus in the end. It might have been due to Bayern putting on lots of pressure, where you have no choice but to defend deep with all 11 players. In my opinion it's more a mentality problem in the end though. Leverkusen was strangely satisfied with a draw, while Bayern is never satisfied with a draw.

While you can dislike Bayern for all the boredom they bring to the Bundesliga, you can just adore them for their mentality. And these late goals are no coincidence - this quote from Seneca sums it up pretty well:

---

Yes, was a surprise for me seeing Schalke losing to Bielefeld with Stevens. If even Stevens can't help them, then nobody can no more At least the game finished under, albeit with the wrong team winning 1-0 for my additional bet

The results from the thread for this week:



Quite some red given the fact we had lots of consensus and there were only two draws.

9 correct picks: JanpriX, tyKiwanuka
8 correct picks: ralle14, Avirunes, Turquinito, leea-1334, entebah, (jayce), (Woohler)

I don't think this will be enough for a prize in the overall competition - there will be someone with 10 correct picks pretty sure.


No matter if I use the bolded picks or the actual number behind the matches for nelson4lov's picks, he doesn't get more than 7 correct. The shared betslip doesn't show the picks unfortunately and the user didn't bother to come back and fix his post/picks.

---

The all-time stats:



JanpriX and me share the 100 fame points and this puts JanpriX in second place in this very important category He also catches up with Trofo in the wins category, sitting at 5 now each.

12 correct picks is still the record held by buywatress and 2 correct ones the negative record held by Avirunes.

Indymoney still with the best average from those who have a decent sample size. But this is all very close; and amazing that it's nearly impossible to go above 8.x. Only getting ~50% correct on average sounds kind of poor, but shows how difficult it is to get things right in the big leagues.

---

I wish you all Happy Holidays, stay safe and see you next time, whenever that is

I opposed you on the Colts win, but just for value reasons, in the end Colts should win this I just don't see these teams that far apart as the odds suggest, after the game I will probably have to eat my words^^ Also thought about betting on the Pats, but I think one can get 2.5+ for them inplay (as you will get 2.5+ for Dolphins inplay most likely).

Other than that I continued my dog day with Washington ML. If the Giants can beat Seattle on the road with McCoy, then WAS can beat them at home with Haskins as well. He just needs to take care of the football and their defense will do the rest.

Eagles I find a bit high as well. Lots of that is based on their good performance against the Saints last week, but maybe they can keep some momentum going into Phoenix and they still have some PO hopes The ARZ defense concerns me a bit though. If they play like last week against the Giants, then goodbye Eagles



Lets hope at least one dog bites.

The 17.5 is the Bills team total, not the HC If it was HC, the odds would be way higher than 2.28; HC-17.5 for the Bilils you could get for around 4.50. And you can't parlay ML+HC of course (would be nice, if one could though ).

Don't give up yet There are prizes for 2nd and 3rd place as well. First place is out of reach, since you have the same remaining picks as Indymoney (and he leads you by 2), but if you have the 7 remaining games correct, you will finish in 2nd place with 3 others.

I suck at this as well, just not familiar enough with especially EPL, but it's still fun....to dream of 3 BTC plus the parlay payout until the Friday night game is finished, to then dream of 300mBTC until it's Saturday afternoon and to then dream of getting a share in the bonus prize - only to get nothing once again^^. Although I won something in first week of Xmas bonus special.

Hehe, the chinese guy was super nervous and even failed to win a single leg. I noticed Huybrechts often having very good performances in the early rounds, but then laying an egg later on. He often times isn't up for the mental challlenge and the pressure gets to him. Maybe no spectators will help him this year - I hope so, because I always liked him.

Hopp bet lost, King was just rock solid, not a lot you can do then, although the german had some momentum going in sets 3&4.

Nice drama also between Heta and Baggish just moments ago. I thought about placing a bet on Baggish for 5+ prematch, since all favourites won so far today and you normally have at least one dog winning per day (and MvG won't lose^^), but I wasn't brave enough, very annoying

Half-time, 8/15 matches played:



rdbase and Avirunes are leading with 5 correct picks here, while in the SB leaderboard there is one guy with 6 so far and it's the same guy that won last weeks edition, must be a very knowledgeable person

There is an armada of users with 4 correct picks in our table and if I look at ManU-Leeds game, rdbase/Avirunes both have the upset in Leeds winning there. If they are wrong and ManU wins, there are virtually gazillions of people tied at the top. So there is still hope for basically anyone to collect the main bonus prize sponsored by SB

I wouldn't recommend that one, since the Broncos are very thin in their secondary. They lost Toliver/Dawson at the Panthers and Bouye is suspended. @DireWolfM14 said that Allen is on the injury report, but I can't find him there, so he will be fit I guess. Do you have a link Dire ?

Bills ML looks the obvious choice, but the odds are a bit low for my liking. Will wait for 1.80 inplay. Same goes for GB, but here 1.50 would be enough for me, though I doubt I will get that. Panthers are a weird team this season, they are often able to keep things close, but rarely win. No bet probably the best solution for both games^^

Yesterday saw a huge surprise, when 66y.o. Paul Lim from Singapore beat Luke Humphries as 5+ underdog Thats the nice thing about Darts, no matter how old you are, how fat you are or if you are a heavy smoker, you can still be successful. There are not many sports like that.....

---

For today I will place my first real bet and it will be Hopp tb King @2.42. King's record at the PDC WC wasn't super good in the last 10 years, he normally wins a couple of matches and then exits Last 32/64; today will be his first match at this years edition. This bet is more on Hopp than against King, because I liked what I saw in the germans first showing. He always struggled a bit with the freak-ish crowd and all the noise and hectic they created, so there being no crowds this year is certainly helping him. He is still kind of a upcoming talent, though he had some good success in the past, albeit not really in the WC. This year he could make some more noise and the first step would be to beat King today.