Some people have been doing this for 10 years and still can’t make any money. It’s a difficult game. You won’t learn how to be profitable by watching YouTube videos, you need to put in the hours yourself.

Yes there are tons of Solana meme coins pumping but guess what there are 99 others which are rug pulls and investors lose everything. The dogwif was extremely rare of a probability that it would make it big. So rare that the developer sold everything for like $50k instead of holding for $20,000,000.

My advice is to stay away from these meme Solana coins.

Well we didn’t get a rate cut but they are saying that we will get 3 rate cuts this year which is much less what was said in the previous FOmC.

We did however have higher than expected inflation numbers so we are not surprised that we won’t get more than 3.

Most likely first cut will be in June, then Sept and then December. And they are expecting less cuts in 2025 as previously mentioned.

We had a huge reversal, I think the daily candle was the largest daily Candle since 2021. It was a quick down move and quick up move. Perhaps it’s the FOMC but we kind of already knew we would get rate cuts later in the year.

Now it’s all about the flows. So far they have been weak today. Large GBTC outflow and very little inflows, unless blackrock is over $300M by itself then we will have another negative flow day.

Most likely it’s profit taking from buying last month or people are just too scared to buy the dip incase it keeps on dropping further.

Yes this is normal. There is no guarantee way of making money in the markets. That’s just the way it is.

If it was this easy, nobody would work, they would just code some bot and go on vacation.

You need to learn how to trade yourself in real time and see if you can be profitable. Using a bot is not a good way to do that.

Bots will work in certain markets such as bull or bear or sideways markets. But once the market changes the bot will no longer work and by the time you configure it to another market sentiment , you would of had huge losses by then.

I think more people would be willing to invest in the ETH etf than BTC because they know that bitcoins market cap is already high and there is less room for growth compared to say ETH.

It’s possible for BTC to reach $100K which would be almost double from the day the etfs launched. But something like ETH which has a smaller market cap and decreasing supply, can easily triple or quadruple from here, and this is why many smaller retail investors might want to invest in it instead.

Thanks for posting the photo.

I think the drawdown won’t be as bad as the previous cycles because we have more liquidity now than before. If we keep dipping and say touch 30% or 40% I will start to get nervous and think that the $74K was indeed the top.

However we need to see the etf flows as time goes on. Will more people invest with bitcoin on the dip or are people only buying bitcoin etfs when we print new highs. So far yesterday we were -150M or so. Wondering what todays session brought.

Couple weeks ago they raised $800M and bought bitcoin around that. Then a week later they announced another offering for $500M which they would buy bitcoin with.

So far no reports that the $500M order has been filled but I am assuming they should report it any day now. Since it dipped they will have a better price than the $800M buy which was near the top pretty much.

Dont use copy trades that you see on most platforms. Sure its nice how they have a 1000% gain but the issue with many of those is that they are all short term gains. If you look at their history, they only traded for a few weeks. Look for someone who traded for years and you won't find these 1000% gains.

Usually what happens is the trend changes and they start to give back gains and eventually they go bust. One big issue is that they don't use stops or they use wide stops. So it appears they win 80% of their trades when in fact their max drawdown is something like 50% of their entire account, not a healthy way of trading.

I don't know how these crypto prop firms are but when I joined one about 15 years ago, almost none of the traders there knew what they were doing.

None of them ever made a profit, they all hit their daily loss limit of $100 or $500 or so and basically were out of the market. And even if you made money, most of the profits stayed with the firm or you had to pay the NASDAQ/NYSE quote level 2 data fees.

Most likely less than 1% of all traders made money in these companies in the long run.

I think it’s the opposite. Bitcoin dropped because the stock market dropped last week due to the higher than expected CPI and PPI prints. Means that inflation is still here and traders are pricing in higher yields which was showed after the bond sell off.

I don’t think they will hike in March. If they did a cut then it would be bullish for stocks and crypto. However there is expectations that the fed might start rate cuts in June, and about 3 in total this year, towards the end of the year.

HFT happens in all markets. Most of the trades on the NYSE are done by HFT. They are also common in crypto.

These aren’t humans, they are bots. They are programmed by humans however. You cannot out trade them. Most HFT need to be as close as possible to the stock exchange such as in NYC so they can get the fastest ping.

What you mean is more like scalping which is done by humans. Basically trading the 1 minute chart. Very difficult to become profitable however. Long term trading is easier.

Trading signals will always in the end cost you money. They are generally profitable in the short term but never in the long term.

Right now anyone can make money as long as you buy. But eventually markets will shift and when it starts to become bearish, all those trading signal groups will go broke and shut down.

Just learn the basics on YouTube and the rest is all about experience.

The people who are employed can still spend money on fast food like McDonalds but many already started to cut back.

Right now most of the time I am McDonald’s it’s fairly empty, a few years back it was always busy. You also get coupons sent to you most frequently which only means they get less business.

It’s bad out there but it won’t get worst until people start to lose their jobs. But with growing gdp who knows when that will be.

From what I understand there is no pattern it’s random but it’s in increasing difficulty because each iteration is becoming larger and larger.

The first few were easy to solve, later they started to use GPUs to find the numbers towards the end. Now it’s extremely difficult.

You can do some airdrops if you want to earn some crypto. Many testnets out there which have free tokens and if you test the Protocol you might get rewarded with an airdrop.

This is a much easier way than solving that puzzle.

Generally when a market has more traders there should be less volatility because there is more liquidity. However right now we are getting a surge of new traders all buying up bitcoin, Ethereum , Solana on leverage and when there is a deep pullback like we had it can get ugly.

What you don’t want is too many one sided leveraged trades. We have crazy high funding rates and it’s not looking good. We need more spot buys. When you see the perps are leading the spot market then it means a minor correction can be on the way.

You don’t want a pullback that deep, if it pulls back into the $30K I would say it would be a bear market and it will trade in that area for many many months. We had a huge dip and $65K and hopefully it doesn’t go any lower than that.

The flows were positive last week and we got lots of tether entering the market so the steam shouldn’t run out anytime soon. But if we keep dipping, and touch $45K or so I would say that the top was $74K.

He is very similar to Gensler and Warren Buffet, they all really hate Bitcoin. They hated it for years and they will hate it for the next 10 years.

His bank however is involved indirectly with crypto, especially with the etfs. So it’s funny how the guy says it’s a bad thing but as long as his bank can make money off it, he is ok with that. Basically completely two faced.

Either that or it’s a completely different division of JP Morgan which deals with the bitcoin etfs. A division he has less control over. That would make more sense.

As long as there is internet access then it would work. But you need to understand that a busy super market can’t accept Bitcoin because for 1 the fees at the moment might be high for the sender and the second reason is the confirmation times.

Even if the fees are low and network is not congested it might take over 30-60 minutes to get the confirmation. If they don’t wait for confirmation it would lead to double spends.

So I would say l2 solutions would be perfect for this. As they are cheaper and faster.

Today the flows were a little weak. From what I remember we only got $200M in net flows and IBIT was only $120 or so. But at least GBTC was only $140m negative today.

So this is what the market is looking like. If it starts to show little to no flows then most likely that’s when the profit taking will start. But if we resume the $500M worth of daily inflows then we should continue to $100K around the halving date. Or shortly after.

Yeah it’s great that this is finally put to an end.

I don’t know if this was the original cause or not but the crash in Nov 2018 might of been due to Bitcoin SV. CSW was saying he is going to dump all 1M of his coins and BTC will be dead and BSV will replace it. And shortly after is when we broke the $6K support and went down to like $3.5K.

Pretty sure the BSV mess is what started that crash.