looking at the 1h graph which was generated by your new settings suggestions I noticed a possible trading strategy - looking at the places where the EMA chart changes direction. I've just grabbed a screen shot to show what I mean.
Looking at the points where it clearly goes up or down is fairly clear to the eye (red arrows) however to avoid false calls (the yellow arrows) we'd need a threshold of some sort - either that the change has to to be by X or that the change has to hold for 1 or maybe 2 cycles (or maybe a fraction of a cycle)? By cycle I mean the period of observation - in this case 1 hour. I would think that most people would not want to wait 2 hours after the market has moved to make a trade so maybe when an inflection point is reached the system check every 0.5 hours for a significant change?
Now I know that this is a blindingly simple method and therefore must have been thought of (and probably disproved) by minds far more experienced and better than mine so I'm all ears...
Hey, I like it - I've been thinking if one might be able to use curve sketching on the price or the average price to identify inflection points.. but I don't really know how one would take the derivative of a changing curve in real time ^^. |
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If it is at all mathematically/realistically possible, a trading indicator/strategy that can react more quickly to fast swings than EMA.. been losing a lot due to the bot buying at the peak of a $50 rise and selling after the price crashed back below the previous low. TSL doesn't do that job either because it either sells prematurely at a bit of jitter or doesn't react either until it's too late.
So far I've been completely at the mercy of the market and luck and I probably wouldn't be worse off if I hadn't used the bot at all. Maybe I'm misunderstanding the whole point though and this is as good as it gets?
Another feature I'd like, as I already said, would be the bot using actively and quickly corrected limit orders instead of market orders to reduce loss to slippage.
By the way, is it possible that the bot uses some server clock for ticks instead of local time and is that clock by a few minutes late? I've gotten the impression..
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question - if threshold 1 just triggers notification, how come it seems to change profitability in testing?
Because it also enables threshold 2 to be triggered. Once threshold 1 is passed at a tick time, a trade will happen if threshold 2 is triggered on the next tick (or a later one, provided that threshold 1 is consistently exceeded). So basically you can set the bot to require a certain steepness(? no, that's not the right word) of the EMA diff change, or to just trade immediately when the lines cross (by setting T1 to a negative number and T2 to zero) or whatever you like. So to clarify: if the EMA diff somehow jumps from a negative value to a large positive one so both thresholds are met at once, nothing will happen, because at first only T1 will kick in (unless it already has, see above). Did that help? |
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I just had an idea to potentially increase profit, would like your comments. Make the bot use limit orders instead of market orders, like this: when a buy order is triggered, place an order at highest current ask price + 10ct - check every minute (or maybe more often) whether it still is at the highest bid price (and lower than the lowest ask, in weird scenarios), if not: cancel and adjust, repeat until all money minus reserve has been exchanged. This would help prevent buying at a too-high price - I've started pausing the bot when there's a EMA cross and doing this manually - at least it decreased my losses  |
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Sorry for still being OT, but while we're at it (I'll stop after this, promise!): Bitstamp actually looks nice, anyone have experience with them?
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Also, I would personally stay away from Gox at this point, not only are they having issues with their Fiat withdrawals but now BTC is delaying as well; l'd be wary.
I'm just looking at BTC-E and it doesn't look half as legit as Mt.Gox. There is no documentation, part of the website is in Russian only which I can't read, looking at withdrawals I can't really figure out how they work, also they say something about minimum withdrawal amounts I'll probably never have in my account (€2000?) and minimum withdrawal fees that are completely ridiculous (€100?!?). They also appear to ask for similarly weird fees on fiat deposits, and when I click on "deposit bitcoins" I just get an error message, likewise when trying to check their terms on BTC withdrawal. I don't see how I'm supposed to trust that site with my money. |
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Hmm.. the Euro market volume has gone down to near-zero and the value is completely jittery (jumping between 695 and 685 every ~20min) while on average not moving at all, causing random, useless trades at a constant loss all the time. I, too, now switched to TSL trading by turning up all the thresholds to +50%. So after manually buying in at the low points of jitter I'm just holding - if the price rises there might be a profit, but a big drop won't cause me too much pain either if it happens while I'm asleep.
...interesting, the prices at MtGox and BTC-E are behaving completely differently, I guess that's because the market as a whole is still too small to be in any way coherent?
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What settings are you using? Because I'm down 15% with 20/42/2h. I've now set it to 20/42/30min because backtesting makes this look better over the past month, but so far the price hasn't been behaving well enough to verify that.
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