Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

Who will be Palme d'Or Winner at the following Cannes 2016 Film Festival?

The initial lineup for the 69th French film festival has been announced yesterday, including 20 films screening in competition. This year’s Cannes is scheduled to be held from 11 to 22 May 2016, with the winners being announced on the last day. So, till then you will have an open market on Fairlay for the Palme d'Or Winner:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/palme-dor-winner-1/.

First favorite at the moment is movie ‘Sieranevada’ by Romanian film director and screenwriter Cristi Puiu who earlier both won and was nominated for ‘Un Certain Regard Award’ in Cannes. But still, he is far from a huge favorite as this year’s competition selection in one of the strongest in recent years.

Puiu is followed by ‘Julieta’, Pedro Almodovar’s latest drama that’s already been released to positive reviews in Spain. New Jim Jamursh’s low-key drama ‘Paterson’ is also ranked high, as well as the movie ‘I, Daniel Blake’ by Ken Loach who previously won the Palme d’Or for ‘The Wind That Shakes the Barley’.

Xavier Dolan’s latest film, ‘Juste la fin du monde’ will premiere in competition, as well as Jeff Nichols’ drama ‘Loving’ about an interracial marriage in 50s America. Those two movies, together with Cristian Mungiu’s movie ‘Bacalaureat’, are currently among the first seven favorites for this year’s Palme d'Or Winner.

Some of your favorite directors, or actors, are probably in competition as well, and if they are not included amongst the top contenders you can use the great odds on the option ‘Other’ that covers all the other movies. Anyway, it is less than a month till one of the most popular Film Festivals so you have enough time to predict your favorite.

Who will win the French presidential election? Alain Juppe? Nicolas Sarkozy? Marine Le Pen?

Couple of months ago, Politico had a great article about the 2017 French presidential election campaign titled ''Art of comeback in French politics: First, write a book'' in which it is noted that the next years' campaign is starting as a grand book tour. And, interestingly, it is easy to compare this 'book tour' with the chances they are given in a year from now.

At the moment, the first favorite at the French presidential election (scheduled to be held in April and May 2017) is Alain Juppe, Mayor of Bordeaux and former Prime Minister, who is given around 40% to become the President. At the same time, he has written two books since the summer of 2014, and intends to publish two more by the end of this year.

So, with this in mind, it is not a surprise that the second favorite is former president Nicolas Sarkozy, whose book ''France for Life'' has been at the top of France’s best-seller lists. Okay, let’s get serious a bit as the current president and the third favorite to win (re-)election is Francois Hollande who is all but a great writer, though he did write as well.

But the current President has also lost the political capital built up after the Paris attacks, while National Fronte leader Marine Le Pen is also taking time to regroup so she is not given huge chances at the moment. It is similar with the current Prime Minister Manuel Valls, with only 10% of chances, still more than anyone out of these five candidates.

French people surely like to read so it will be interesting to see how many books in the following 12 months will those most important candidates publish, and how will that influence their campaign and election results. But, till then, don’t miss the chance to use the great odds Fairlay offers on any of these writers, ups, candidates at the French election:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/french-election-next-president/.

What is your opinion on this Presidential election, and what other European politics markets you want to see created?

What will be the Bitcoin Price 30 days after the Block Halving?

We are left with 89 days till The Block Halving (in mid July, the amount of new bitcoins awarded to bitcoin miners will drop from 3,600 BTC per day to 1,800 BTC per day, and with that, the annual increase in the bitcoin money supply will drop from 9.17% to 4.09%), so its effect on the bitcoin price is these days the trending topic in the bitcoin community.

There are plenty of opinions regarding this effect. Most are sure that the price will increase: they differ from those who think that it will happen in the following weeks, to those who think it will happen only weeks or even months after the halving is done. There are also those who think halving is already influencing the price and it would be lower without it.

On the other side, there are some who think that increase in price won’t happen, if fact, they are even sure that it will go down, and some think that other factors will influence the price more than halving alone. Anyway, all these opinions show that it is hard to predict right how will the Bitcoin price change in the following months, and months after halving.

As most of you have own opinions on this matter, you now have on offer open prediction market at Fairlay, so you can earn additional bitcoins if you guess right the price of Bitcoin 30 days after the halving, but also show your opinion. You have four options on offer. From $400 or less, to $400,01 - $450; and $450,01 - $500, and one being $500,01 or higher:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-bitcoin-30-days-after-the-halving/.

So, what is your opinion on the Bitcoin price (a month) after the halving? In which range will it be in that moment?

Will Usain Bolt and Mo Farah win all the gold medals at Olympics’ 100m, 200m, 5000m, and 10000m events?

We are left with only 115 day till Olympics in Rio so it is time to start creating and betting on more Olympics markets. Since January, you had open market for a country that wins most gold medals in Rio (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/country-to-win-most-gold-medals/), with USA Olympics team having the most chances.

But now it is time to add some individual markets and it is best to start with Usain Bolt and Mo Farah as they are often talked about as athletes that could once again be Olympic heroes of their states. So, can both of them win both gold medals in their favorite events or will someone manage to stop at least one, or even both of them, in August in Rio?

Usain Bolt, being the first man to hold both the 100m and 200m world records since fully automatic time measurements became mandatory in 1977, is regarded as the fastest person ever timed, so it will be a rather surprise if he doesn’t confirm his domination in Rio, as he won both 100m and 200m at both Beijing 2008 and London 2012 Olympics.

Usain Bolt to win the 100m and 200m gold medals: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/usain-bolt-to-win-the-100m-and-200m-gold-medals/.

Mo Farah is less popular than Bolt but he is a superb distance runner, and he was a gold medalist in both 5000m and 10,000m at London 2012. Completing that double again at 2015 World Championships in Athletics, he became the second man in history to win long-distance doubles at successive Olympics and World Championships. It is time for Rio.

Mo Farah to win the 5000m and 10000m gold medals: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mo-farah-to-win-the-5000m-and-10000m-gold-medals/.

So, what are your opinions on their gold medals chase and which other Olympics markets would you like to see created?

How many delegates will Trump win? More than 1,200? Less than 1,150?

These days, US Politics is mostly about the number of delegates so they really deserve its own market to which you can place predictions as we wait for the New York Primaries scheduled for the next Tuesday, April 19. Of course, when it comes to the number of delegates, it is mostly about those Donald Trump needs to seal the Republican nomination.

So, let's get straight to numbers. The magic number of delegates needed to seal the Republican nomination is 1,237. At the moment, Donald Trump has 743 of them (Ted Cruz is at 545), and we have 854 delegates remaining.

By FiveThirtyEight estimations, Trump is currently at 92% of target (you can use their great graphics for delegate targets: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/), so with this, the first option in this market is that he will win 1,201 or more delegates and for it the most chances are given (around 43% at the moment).

Still, this market is far from decided as most people think that Trump won't seal the nomination after primaries, and that he could easily go under 1,200 delegates, staying in the range of 1,151 - 1200 that is second option in the market.

But, if Donald Trump starts to lose his momentum with the April primaries, he could even give up before the closing June primaries and with momentum shifting to Ted Cruz, Trump could finish these primaries with 1,150 or less delegates. That is the third option in this ' How many delegates will Trump win?' market that you can find at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/how-many-delegates-will-trump-win/.

What is your opinion on this market? Are you sure in some of the options and do you think he will seal the nomination?

Will woman be the next U.N. Secretary-General?

At the start of December we already talked about the election for the next U.N. Secretary-General but these days it once again became the trending topic as Guardian announced that UN will hold Secretary-General job hustings for first time ever, so contenders will explain ideals and intentions to general assembly and hold public debates in New York and London.

These public debates will surely be interesting as for the UN’s first 70 year, the Secretary-General was chosen behind closed doors by the major powers on the security council, and only then presented to the general assembly for approval. Date of final election is still not confirmed, as current holder Ban Ki-moon prepares to step down at the end of this year.

So far eight candidates have declared their bids and the last one is Helen Clark, former Prime Minister of New Zealand and current Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme. With her nomination, question of the next Secretary-General being a woman was once again opened as all the Secretary-Generals to date have been men.

A the moment there is a strong push to select a woman this timeand at the moment we have four of them among the official candidates. But, more candidates are about to bid, among which are the Chilean president, Michelle Bachelet, and in recent weeks there has been a growing buzz around the idea that the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, could bid as well.

With some strong woman already declaring their bids, and some even stronger about to bid, it is not a surprise that Fairlay has market placed around 70% for the woman be the next U.N. Secretary-General. But, what is your opinion on this? You can use following public debates to form one, or bet right now, having great odds if you think men are in favor:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general/.

Next Presidential primaries – Will Clinton and Trump close New York?

Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump lost their Wisconsin primaries last night, so now they can completely move their focuses to New York primaries that are scheduled for Tuesday, April 19. At the same time, after last night’s wins, Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz can hope to achieve more in New York then they were about to before good Wisconsin results.

Schedule of primaries goes even more in favor to Bernie Sanders as Wyoming Democratic caucuses are scheduled for the following Saturday, April 9, and he will almost surely prevail there. Wyoming is the least populated state with white conservatives that mostly vote for Bernie, while he won previous caucuses and will surely win one is Wyoming as well.

So, New York primary will be as important as one primary gets. Even with Bernie’s momentum, Hillary is still favorite to win New York (recent polls go 53%-43% in her favor, with 4% undecided), though Sanders chances are getting bigger from day to day. Anyway, New York primary could be most important moment of the campaign so bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-york-democratic-primary/.

On the other side, Donald Trump is a huge favorite to win New York as Ted Cruz and John Kasich will probably divide anti-Trump suppoter’s votes (last polls have Trump at 52%, Kasich at 21%, Cruz at 17%). Still, by losing Wisconsin, Donald Trump is getting stopped from securing his nomination and gets frustrated as they are going towards convention fight.

Nice victory for Ted Cruz in Wisconsin puts additional pressure on Trump in his home state primaries as he now wants to win big in New York, as just win is no good for him. All in all, Trump is still a huge favorite for winning New York but if you think he could lost support in the next two weeks, then you have great odds on both Kasich and Cruz. Bet now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-york-republican-primary/.

What are your opinions on the New York primaries, and what other primary markets would you like to have on offer?

BAFTA TV Awards – Who will win them for Best Actor, Actress, Drama, Soap, Entertainment Programme?

Season of movie and music awards is behind us, so for those who love those kinds of ceremonies, with awards and nominations, BAFTA TV Awards is a popular one at the moment. Nominations were announced last week and ceremony will be held on May 8, so you already have at Fairlay markets offer some of the most popular categories.

Historical drama “Wolf Hall” leads the nomination race as this miniseries took four nominations, and is the first favorite for the Best Drama Series. “Humans”, science fiction television series, is the second favorite in this category, while other two nominations are “No Offence” and “The Last Panthers” that is given really small chances for an award.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Drama Series: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-drama-series/.

Mark Rylance, who two months ago won an Oscar for “Bridge of Spies“, is the first favorite for the Best Actor Award, as he is another “Wolf Hall” nomination. Second favorite is the last year winner, Idris Elba, for his role in “Luther”, while other two nominations are Stephen Graham for “This Is England '90“ and Ben Whishaw for “London Spy“.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Actor: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-actor/.

“Wolf Hall” also has a nomination for the Best Actress Award as Claire Foy received one, though she is not the first favorite. Biggest chances for the Best Actress Award are given to Sheridan Smith for “The C-Word“ and Suranne Jones for “Doctor Foster“, while Ruth Madeley for “Don’t Take My Baby“ is given the smallest chances.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Actress: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-actress/.

At the moment, biggest favorite in any of the categories is “Adele at the BBC”, for the Best Entertainment Programme Award. She could be challenged by “Strictly Come Dancing”, another BBC1 programme, while other two nominations are for “Britain’s Got Talent”, and “TFI Friday anniversary special” that is given almost no chances for award.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Entertainment Programme: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-entertainment-programme/.

Always interesting category is that one for the Best Soap and Continuing Drama Award. For now, the first favorite to take the award is Coronation Street, though good chances for the win are also given to “EastEnders“. Other two nominations, though with the rather small chances for the win, are given to “Emmerdale“ and “Holby City“.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Soap and Continuing Drama: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-soap-and-continuing-drama/.

All in all, you have plenty of markets to place your bets on, and surely some of your favorite shows have received nominations, and you can also note if you want to see markets for some others categories created as well.

Official England Euro 2016 Song Artist – Stormzy or Louis Tomlinson?

England national football team will hardly ever have a better official song than it did with ‘Three Lions’ in 1996. Still, every big football tournament (though, for some reason, no official song released in 2010) produces one official and couple of unofficial songs, and these days we expect the confirmation of the artist who will record one for Euro 2016.

At the moment, it is still far from certain who will record this one but there are a lot of talks that it should be either Grime MC Stormzy or One Direction's Louis Tomlinson. Well-known pop star and football fan Tomlinson is the second favorite, as Stormzy became the first favorite with the sayings that fans have been backing him with their own money.

These two are followed by Tinie Tempah and Kaiser Chiefs, while you have great odds if you think any other artist could record England official song. Anyway, Football's (Not) Coming Home but you can still make money if you guess right whose song you’ll be listening to when England starts playing Euro 2016 matches, so place your bet right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/official-england-euro-2016-song-artist/.

So, who is your favorite for this market, and what other interesting Euro 2016 markets would you like to see created?

Who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron?

With voting on both UK Referendum and the next London Mayor (you can already find these markets in Fairlay's UK Politics section: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/uk-politics/all/), things in London got even worse in recent days as the Prime Minister David Cameron has been convening what he calls Cabinet meetings from which ministers favoring Brexit have been excluded and prevented from seeing papers.

At the same time, some political writers have been asking the question ‘Does David Cameron have to quit as Prime Minister after UK Referendum – regardless of the result?’ So, things are getting interesting and it is probably the right time to open the market on who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron, though in the worst case this market will be resolved only with the next UK general election that is due to be held on 7 May, 2020.

But this market could be resolved much earlier if Cameron quits and so there are already talks who could his successor be. At the same time there are talks about the next leader of the Conservative party as many think that leadership election of this party could be held right after the UK Referendum. So, this leadership election could in a part decide who will be the first favorite for the next Prime Minister and at the moment that is Boris Johnson.

Current London Mayor is seen as a person who is able to re-establish the UK as strong voice. After Johnson, second person that is seen amongst the favorites for the next Prime Minister is George Osborne. But, he is also seen as a boring and cold personality. Theresa May is seen as the third favorite to become the next Tory leader and she is at the same time the fourth favorite to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Still, if the Conservative party develops more problems, this could open a chance for Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Labour Party, to become the next Prime Minister and because of this he is a third favorite overall. Anyway, when it comes to the UK politics, interesting months are ahead of us and they could also decide who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron. Anyway, it is not so soon to place your bets at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-prime-minister-after-david-cameron/.

So, what is your opinion about these questions, and what other UK Politics markets would you like to bet on?