|
I think these are all good ideas - except for the first point.
On one hand, it was a problem during the rally (and probably also during the crash) that ICBIT had difficulties following the movements of the market - but two daily clearances must have helped. On the other hand, during the many "mini-crashes" leading up to the big crash, the market moved far down for an hour or so, and then moved back up again. In these cases, the lack of clearing gave considerable stability to ICBIT compared to the CFD that 1broker was having at the time, where most long positions were liquidated in those situations.
Also, I would fear that market manipulation would be easier for big players: they can almost trigger a clearing "on demand". Open a huge position at the end of the trading range during a "sleepy" period, and force a lot of people out of the market.
|
|
|
|
It sounds like 0.88 has to come with a caveat ... flip a coin ... if it's heads, it won't work on your OSX machine... gah!
People will use it to play Satoshi Dice anyway, so that is only fitting  |
|
|
|
|
The sip.so library has the same SHA1, so it has not changed. I would think that a timestamp or something would change when compiling, so perhaps it has not worked. It should be enough to do "brew uninstall sip" before and "brew install --env=std sip" afterwards. On the other hand, now that it looks like it is sip and not pyqt that is the culprit, I am less sure about the --env=std stuff.
|
|
|
|
Unfortunately, I don't have a system to test on that doesn't work, so the best I can do is try your suggestion, and post the results. I uninstalled all the brew dependencies, cleaned all the build directories, added --env=std, and then rebuilt everything. For some reason, the result is 300 kB smaller... not sure why. But I did it, so you can try it. I have updated the original post here. Dammit! No difference, it still crashes. Well, if you can't fix the problem, document it  Some people (probably on older Macs) will find the app crashing - and will have to build it themselves. Certainly not an optimal solution, but the majority that don't see the problem will probably be happy anyway. By the way, it is sip.so that cause the crash, according to Apple's crash reporter. I really cannot see why. |
|
|
|
@etotheipi: Could you try adding --env=std to the brew line installing sip and pyqt, it looks like the "superenv" feature in Homebrew is removing options specifying a more general architecture from the compilation commands. You will have to uninstall pyqt and sip, otherwise the script will not reinstall them. something like brew install --env=std cryptopp swig qt pyqt wget (I have tested that sip and pyqt builds with that option, but I have not tested the rest. I suspect that it is pyqt that is causing the trouble.) This is a long shot, but it might work. I could then test the resulting .app and see if it runs. |
|
|
|
My system is pretty new iCore7 (8 cores) and it has 16Gbs of RAM, sata3 drive, etc, and i have the same problem, take ages (4 to 6 hours) each time to start working online.
That is clearly unreasonable with that kind of RAM available. I have 8GB and an SSD, it takes 3 minutes. I would expect 4-5 with sata3 at most. |
|
|
|
|
This sounds a bit urgent. May I suggest that you open a blockchain.info wallet, and try to import the private keys there. Then you can immediately transfer the money out and into an Armory account.
|
|
|
|
I think I am on to something, and have a working hypothesis. My evidence so far: - My .profile cause the app to work when called from the Terminal, disabling my .profile cause it to crash.
- My .profile cause three libraries to be loaded from /usr/local instead of from etotheipi's app: sip.so, QtCore.so, QtGui.so
- The crash is caused by an illegal instruction.
- My MacBook is almost three years old.
I suspect that the problems are caused by one or more of the dependencies (sip or Qt) to be built with optimizations for the actual CPU on which it is built. Older CPUs will then not support one or more instructions in the code. This explains why only some people see the problem (those with older machines) and why it does not depend on the OS version. To do: find the offending dependency, and fix its Makefile. |
|
|
|
I have made a tiny bit of progress. It turns out that on my machine, some libraries are loaded from /usr/local/Cellar which will not be present in normal installations. I set the environment variable DYLD_PRINT_LIBRARIES to 1, that causes the dynamic loader to print the path of all libraries loaded to stderr, and then I started Armory from a terminal (that, by the way, prevents the crash, and fonts are slightly different, so something must be subtly different). In any case, a long list of libraries appears, and at the end these suspicious lines: dyld: loaded: /usr/local/Cellar/qt/4.8.4/plugins/imageformats/libqgif.dylib
dyld: loaded: /usr/local/Cellar/qt/4.8.4/plugins/imageformats/libqico.dylib
dyld: loaded: /usr/local/Cellar/qt/4.8.4/plugins/imageformats/libqjpeg.dylib
dyld: loaded: /usr/local/Cellar/qt/4.8.4/plugins/imageformats/libqmng.dylib
dyld: loaded: /usr/local/Cellar/qt/4.8.4/plugins/imageformats/libqsvg.dylib
dyld: loaded: /usr/local/Cellar/qt/4.8.4/lib/QtSvg.framework/Versions/4/QtSvg
dyld: loaded: /usr/local/Cellar/qt/4.8.4/lib/QtXml.framework/Versions/4/QtXml
dyld: loaded: /usr/local/Cellar/qt/4.8.4/plugins/imageformats/libqtga.dylib
dyld: loaded: /usr/local/Cellar/qt/4.8.4/plugins/imageformats/libqtiff.dylib
These should certainly not be loaded from there! They don't appear to be included in the app. It could be some optional stuff that Qt loads if it finds it, explaining the strange crashes. Perhaps including them in the app would help. EDIT: Removing .profile cause it to crash in the Terminal too. The self-build one still does not crash. This is the error message: ./MacOS/Armory: line 5: 925 Illegal instruction: 4 bin/python armorybuild/ArmoryQt.pyc |
|
|
|
Hmm, it does not look like otool respects the DYLD_LIBRARY_PATH variable that the driver script uses to cause loading from within the app bundle. I will look more at this tomorrow, I guess reading my previous post makes it pretty obvious that I am too tired for this |
|
|
|
OK, here is the list of which shared objects the shared objects in the app depend on, discovered with otool -L `find . -name '*.so'` (and similar for *.dylib). Here is the result, it looks mostly harmless EDIT: It looks like a lot of Qt stuff is loaded from /usr/local instead of from the App itself. So if we do not have the same Qt, it will probably break - but it looks like we do have the same, strange. ./MacOS/armorybuild/_CppBlockUtils.so:
../_CppBlockUtils.so (compatibility version 0.0.0, current version 0.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
/System/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/2.7/Python (compatibility version 2.7.0, current version 2.7.2)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/_psutil_osx.so:
/System/Library/Frameworks/CoreFoundation.framework/Versions/A/CoreFoundation (compatibility version 150.0.0, current version 744.12.0)
/System/Library/Frameworks/IOKit.framework/Versions/A/IOKit (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 275.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/_psutil_posix.so:
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/phonon.so:
/usr/local/lib/phonon.framework/Versions/4/phonon (compatibility version 4.4.0, current version 4.4.0)
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/Qt.so:
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtCore.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtDeclarative.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtDeclarative.framework/Versions/4/QtDeclarative (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtScript.framework/Versions/4/QtScript (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtSvg.framework/Versions/4/QtSvg (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtSql.framework/Versions/4/QtSql (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtXmlPatterns.framework/Versions/4/QtXmlPatterns (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtNetwork.framework/Versions/4/QtNetwork (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtDesigner.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtDesigner.framework/Versions/4/QtDesigner (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtScript.framework/Versions/4/QtScript (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtXml.framework/Versions/4/QtXml (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtGui.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtHelp.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtHelp.framework/Versions/4/QtHelp (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtSql.framework/Versions/4/QtSql (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtNetwork.framework/Versions/4/QtNetwork (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtMultimedia.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtMultimedia.framework/Versions/4/QtMultimedia (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/System/Library/Frameworks/ApplicationServices.framework/Versions/A/ApplicationServices (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 45.0.0)
/System/Library/Frameworks/CoreAudio.framework/Versions/A/CoreAudio (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 1.0.0)
/System/Library/Frameworks/AudioUnit.framework/Versions/A/AudioUnit (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 1.0.0)
/System/Library/Frameworks/AudioToolbox.framework/Versions/A/AudioToolbox (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 1.0.0)
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtNetwork.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtNetwork.framework/Versions/4/QtNetwork (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtOpenGL.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtOpenGL.framework/Versions/4/QtOpenGL (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/System/Library/Frameworks/OpenGL.framework/Versions/A/OpenGL (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 1.0.0)
/System/Library/Frameworks/AGL.framework/Versions/A/AGL (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 1.0.0)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtScript.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtScript.framework/Versions/4/QtScript (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtScriptTools.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtScriptTools.framework/Versions/4/QtScriptTools (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtScript.framework/Versions/4/QtScript (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtSql.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtSql.framework/Versions/4/QtSql (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtSvg.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtSvg.framework/Versions/4/QtSvg (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtTest.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtTest.framework/Versions/4/QtTest (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/System/Library/Frameworks/IOKit.framework/Versions/A/IOKit (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 275.0.0)
/System/Library/Frameworks/Security.framework/Versions/A/Security (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 55179.1.0)
/System/Library/Frameworks/ApplicationServices.framework/Versions/A/ApplicationServices (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 45.0.0)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtWebKit.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtWebKit.framework/Versions/4/QtWebKit (compatibility version 4.9.0, current version 4.9.3)
/usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtNetwork.framework/Versions/4/QtNetwork (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtXml.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtXml.framework/Versions/4/QtXml (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/PyQt4/QtXmlPatterns.so:
/usr/local/lib/QtXmlPatterns.framework/Versions/4/QtXmlPatterns (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtNetwork.framework/Versions/4/QtNetwork (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/local/lib/QtCore.framework/Versions/4/QtCore (compatibility version 4.8.0, current version 4.8.4)
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/sip.so:
/usr/lib/libstdc++.6.dylib (compatibility version 7.0.0, current version 56.0.0)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/twisted/python/sendmsg.so:
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/twisted/runner/portmap.so:
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/twisted/test/raiser.so:
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/lib/python2.7/site-packages/zope/interface/_zope_interface_coptimizations.so:
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./Dependencies/libpng15.15.dylib:
/usr/local/lib/libpng15.15.dylib (compatibility version 30.0.0, current version 30.0.0)
/usr/lib/libz.1.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 1.2.5)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
./MacOS/armorybuild/Armory.app/Contents/Dependencies/libpng15.15.dylib:
/usr/local/lib/libpng15.15.dylib (compatibility version 30.0.0, current version 30.0.0)
/usr/lib/libz.1.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 1.2.5)
/usr/lib/libSystem.B.dylib (compatibility version 1.0.0, current version 169.3.0)
I did the same with the self-built version. There were two differences, the version number of /System/Library/Frameworks/CoreFoundation.framework/Versions/A/CoreFoundation that psutils expect (version 744.12.0 in your app, 744.18.0 in the version that I built myself.) And the app you built contains both ./Dependencies/libpng15.15.dylib and ./MacOS/armorybuild/Armory.app/Contents/Dependencies/libpng15.15.dylib whereas the one I built only contains the former. I have really no idea what this means - I will investigate EDIT: Dependency on /usr/local/lib/QtGui.framework/Versions/4/QtGui and one more looks bad, bad, bad!EDIT 2: Everything in this post is dubious, since the correct environment for loading dynamic libraries was not set. I will try again after getting some coffee |
|
|
|
|
Yes, I think we can, with otool -L. I will give it a try, and whether successful or not I will report back here.
|
|
|
|
|
OK, if I build the app myself, it works.
If I download the app you built to my laptop, it crashes.
If I download it to my wife's macbook, it works just fine. It can even print paper backups! (which has not worked on my laptop since multithreading appeared)
I guess it has something to do with conflicting versions of something that I have installed - I have installed all kinds of junk on this machine for some time now. I will investigate further tonight or tomorrow, have to run now.
|
|
|
|
|
A minor buglet:
The time estimate when loading the block chain is completely off. It takes 2-3 min to load, most of the time it estimates the remaining time to 18 min. This is undoubtedly because it only uses the number of block files read to make the estimate, but since I upgraded the Satoshi client from 0.7 to 0.8 I have three huge files, and around 15 small ones after that one.
|
|
|
|
|
I have a similar setup. One Armory with two watch-only wallets on my laptop. One of the full wallets is in a virtual Linux machine on the same laptop, that virtual machine has no internet access so it would be very difficult for malware to grab the wallet file and key-log the password. The other full wallet is on a raspberry pi with no internet connection at all, so that is even more secure (and for slightly larger amounts, although I cannot really use the words "large amounts" in connection with my wallets).
|
|
|
|
|
I checked the Mac app on my Mountain Lion 10.8.3 MacBook Pro.
Unfortunately, it is highly unstable. The app crashes almost no matter what I try to do. For example, I have a testing wallet with no encryption. Clicking on Make Paper Backup cause a crash, also if bitcoin-qt is not running.
I tried to build from source, that version works, but it is clearly a different version. The app is 0.87.98, the one I build from source is 0.87.3. Probably I am building from the wrong branch, which branch should I build to test this? I was planning to test if it is the build or the armory version that is unstable by building myself (all previous versions that I have built from source have been rock stable). If it is the app only, I could also modify the makefile to build with debugging enabled, and attach a debugger (although debugging a multhithreaded program is new for me).
In any case I am busy at work, so my progress may be slow.
|
|
|
|
Thus my proposal would be maybe to wait some time, until the BTC/USD development is back in a sane region, so that trading any BTC based future makes sense for both parties involved. And then to reconsider adding Gold and Oil again.
I tend to agree. The first round of Gold futures were essentially gold futures. There was a contango in Gold at the same time as there was a contango in BTC versus USD. The second round were BTC futures traded in the currency "gold", a bit more complicated to figure out, but essentially just the same as BTCUSD. There was constantly a backwardation corresponding pretty much to the contango in BTC/USD. Gold futures probably only make sense in times where the BTC is pretty stable, and even then there would be a tendency to treat them as another BTC futures. |
|
|
|
Generally anytime you have panic selling the underlying commodity, no matter what it is, is undervalued at the end of that panic cycle.
Now is the time to buy.
....Greedy when others are fearful...
...buy when there's blood in the streets.
...the principle of maximum pessimism.
All qoutes from very wealthy investors.
Now is the time to buy.
In the 2011 bubble, the prices was sliding down for half a year after the crash, so don't be too sure about this. Predicting is difficult. In particular predicting the future. |
|
|
|
We've had large long positions closed without being fully compensated because the margin was not increased. And yet now he is increasing the margin when it isn't in our favor, this is a clear case of bias on the part of the admin/fireball
Yes, we were lucky - at least I count myself lucky that my large, long position was largely closed a few days before the crash. The profit I lost was less than the loss I would have incurred now (I would have been wiped out). Of course it is not good at all that Fireball changes the rules during the game. On the other hand, it is probably better than ICBIT just closing with all our funds being lost. Remember, we all get angry when our profitable position is closed or we are margin called, but how many of us would leave a negative account alone (and perhaps even open a new one), leaving Fireball with the loss. It is likely that our combined wallets at ICBIT exceeds his private funds, and he also has to make an effort at staying solvent. We have chosen to gamble our bitcoins on an anonymous, unregulated website. We have to factor that risk into our risk management. But that being said, Fireball should be more specific in his descriptions about what he is allowed to do in a crisis. Disclaimer: I am not in any way associated with ICBIT, but I have made significant (by my modest standards at least) profit on the site, which probably gives me a positive bias. I currently have money on the site that I would withdraw if I could, but I understand and (reluctantly) accept that they are frozen until the dust settles. |
|
|
|
|
Don't rush the OSX for my sake - I am happy with the version I "brewed" a month ago or so - my only incentive for changing something that works well would be to help with testing.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
