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no secondary buying momentum for the past few hours, only $12.5 million loaned out on BFX which didn't really increase all that much despite the huge run-up, it's both good and bad; good thing is lots of powder on the side to push it up, bad thing is no one has the faith to do it - btc-e is at larger than normal discount vs stamp and Chinese are not buying. I see it slowly trending down toward $640-650 and there'll be a violent push up once it get near the support. I think we are range bound for a bit.
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looking forward to a summary, especially some input on comparison to the competition.
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holy, another bid wall just come up
$566.20 1780.12913604 $1,007,909.12
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This is pure FUD to discredit bitcoin, until case law or newly enacted law settle this question for good, it's just subject of speculation. Besides, different jurisdiction can have different laws and treatment.
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It amazes me that people don't realize that the crooks in any society or financial arrangement are the business owners not the individuals. Think about all the businesses that have fucked you over in your life. I can name three without giving it much thought (Best Buy, Albertsons and PayPal). Then think of all the individual people that have fucked you over as an adult. I can think of one and he was family (never loan money to family). Businesses by their very design are out to take as much money from you as they can. Bitcoin just gives them an easier way to do that by allowing them to hide behind legal obscurity. Gox is going to do what so many businesses have done in the past and hide behind bankruptcy laws. The reason mainstream financial institutions, like banks, have government protections, like the FDIC, is because their mistakes fuck over so many individuals that people cry for a solution. Libtards forget that those protections are there because people need them, want them and demand them. Pirate@40 fucked over a bunch of people and the first thing they did was run to the government to fix it. I'd like to feel sorry for your loss but that's impossible because you did it to yourself by trusting an unregulated business with your money. Regulations may not always work but at least they provide some incentive to business owners to at least contact you back and try to fix it before you tattle on them.
Again, you are focusing on proximate causes not ultimate causes. The ultimate cause for the corruption you perceive in large businesses is exactly the same cause for the corruption seen in governments by others - centralization. And even when the businesses themselves are not corrupt, the external crooks are attracted to them for the same reason - concentration of wealth and power. Of course, that's why you regulate them to death and insure the results. Insurance goes a long way toward solving problems. Centralization isn't a dirty word. Society is centralized. We live together, play together, fuck each other, have babies and start the cycle over again. We don't live in caves 50 miles apart anymore. Even an organization as small as a nuclear family has regulations governing everyone's role in the organization and punitive actions for misbehavior. no more insurance, you have insurance fraud and stuff. I like the idea of a free-for-all, everyone being cynical and protect their own interest, that's how capitalism works. |
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since bitfinex is a meta exchange, the proof I have the coin thing could be harder to implement. At any moment, some coins can be at bitstamp.
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beginning of the usual Friday dump that happens the past couple of weeks. Thursday seem to be the weekly peak
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just a bunch of elitist trying to thwart the bitcoin revolution which threatened their existing privilege. their proposal sounds like mpex. I think treating bitcoin like forex market is far better.
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come on, this is just some newbie making something up.
bitcoin is still running and exchanging into fiat currency by bitstamp, btc-e, and various markets.
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We have to bring him to justice!
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This actually sounds pretty plausible, and the more I read the reddit post, the more convinced of it I'm becoming. I mean, who's better at stealing from people than the US government??If true, I'd have to take back all the nasty things I've said about Mark.  +1 What people are doing to Mark and MtGox employees is downright bullying and harassment. Even Cyber bullying is really hurtful but some people are stalking him and MtGox employees and their families in real life. This can not be tolerated. If we want to show the world that we are enlightened and civilized we need to give the people at MtGox the benefit of the doubt and do everything we can to resolve this mess for all people invested and involved. We need to step past all the anger and the blindless caused by that anger work on real solutions. Our enemies have been working to divide us and try to make us destroy each other. stop being a mtgox shill, what happened so far is absolutely despicable. He had treated his customer with contempt. US gov't & transaction malleability are contributing factor to losses but the whole operation has been an absolute joke! |
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I think if we find 7 blocks in 2 days, we can definitely all but rule out variance.
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If we find 3 blocks in 7 days, that's avg of 3/7 blocks per day and if assume Poisson process, we have the following:
blocks found / probability
0 / 0.6514
1 / 0.2792
2 / 0.0598
3 / 0.0085
4 / 0.0001+
Going back all the way to mid Dec, I cannot find any 24 hour period where we have >3 blocks.
Almost. We need to use the cumulative distribution function. Then, assuming a rate of 3/7 blocks found per day, we get: Chance of finding more than 0 blocks per day: 34.856094 % Chance of finding more than 1 block per day: 6.937277 % Chance of finding more than 2 blocks per day: 0.954674 % Chance of finding more than 3 blocks per day: 0.100016 %This is not just variance. (In python: import scipy.stats 1. - scipy.stats.distributions.poisson.cdf(blocks_per_day_new, blocks_per_day_old)) At the end of the day, there are still uncertainty until we see announcement and things come along. The recent could be 1) luck 2) friedcat is testing 'sample' miners Even if things look good, there's always potential for operational issue as you do not control the manufacturing & assembly plant. |
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4 blocks mined in less than 24 hours. Last week we found 3 blocks all week. The odds that this is just "good luck" is about 3.4%. Put another way, there is roughly a 96% chance that AM's hashrate just got a fairly dramatic increase. FC got sample chips, and got them hashing already, and their performance boosted AM's hash rate that much?
It's all just speculation at this point, but signs are looking really good...you can almost feel a coming FC announcement in the air.
How did you get 3.4%? My math show that the odds of good luck is a lot lower given you average 3 blocks a week but found 4 in a day. Not intend to challenge you, just want to share your methodology. Care you show your math? If we find 3 blocks in 7 days, that's avg of 3/7 blocks per day and if assume Poisson process, we have the following: blocks found / probability 0 / 0.6514 1 / 0.2792 2 / 0.0598 3 / 0.0085 4 / 0.0001+ Going back all the way to mid Dec, I cannot find any 24 hour period where we have >3 blocks. |
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4 blocks mined in less than 24 hours. Last week we found 3 blocks all week. The odds that this is just "good luck" is about 3.4%. Put another way, there is roughly a 96% chance that AM's hashrate just got a fairly dramatic increase. FC got sample chips, and got them hashing already, and their performance boosted AM's hash rate that much?
It's all just speculation at this point, but signs are looking really good...you can almost feel a coming FC announcement in the air.
How did you get 3.4%? My math show that the odds of good luck is a lot lower given you average 3 blocks a week but found 4 in a day. Not intend to challenge you, just want to share your methodology. |
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Didn't we have this South African bank that is testing bitcoin? This is the new deal, time for Africa to rule!
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Somehow, for all the accusation of fake trades on Huobi and OKCoin, I think the Chinese sets the market to some extent, prices never truly crash in China during this saga, it's a slow decline, which makes me quite confident buying in in the 400's & low 500's. Worst case, I can dump it in China and have ways to get the CNY out. But now China's prices are lagging bitstamp, which could mean we are in for a pause. The amount of speculative money and firepower there is beyond our imagination!
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I went from lender to outright buying coins recently. I think the money available for USD lending has decreased on the loan book. Good to see the shorts, buy BTC, appreciate and earn interest at the same time.
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