In my opinion the point in time to watch for is not Asics getting to work, but it is the point where the whole "bitcoin-experience" is either
a) "legalized" or "regulated" and/or taken over by multinationals - for example any bitcoin exchange that has money-accounts for their customers is a bank in manners of european regulations - imho no bitcoin exchange alive today meets those regulation requirements. and those are strict, for example, you need to have 350.000 EUR reserves to get a license..
b) shut down legally
until then everything about it is speculation and thats the fun part
why should a) happen?
-<put all the pros concerning bitcoins here> - banks will get into business and that will most likely be the end of the game for individuals without millions of capital. because every business that grows and has potential sooner or later is taken over by big-cash.
why sould b) happen?
-because bitcoin is dangerous to the system (banks, states etc) - bitcoin is like havala on the internet, no western government likes this..
-because too many bitcoins are lost in time..wallet beeing deleted, forgotten etc etc
-bitcoin is cryptoanalyzed and its discovered beeing flawed..
etc etc
so for my part i enjoy the time it is what it is and maybe asics will be a 5$ usb-stick in two years, so why bother..
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