Yes, still more in development too -- I've seen 3 or 4 others bubbling up. Quite competitive.
Bear in mind that they all use instant payment methods too -- no wire transfers....
Is one of those exchanges larger volume than btcnCNY? That's the only chinese one I see on bitcoincharts/bitcoinity. Not yet. |
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Yes, still more in development too -- I've seen 3 or 4 others bubbling up. Quite competitive.
Bear in mind that they all use instant payment methods too -- no wire transfers....
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Wall at $105 looks attractive.
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Which Chinese exchange are people looking at?
Every single one ;-) You can see them all here: http://btckan.com/priceUSD price is second from left. The weekend drop was already pretty reluctant TBH. |
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^ How do you know it was the same buyer?
Also, wasn't $110 the max price of the buy you are talking about (i.e., the resultant price after the buy executed)? I often see the "huge slippage" cited, but we don't actually know what % was bought above market price. It may have been 3.99k at market price, with the last 0.01k driving up the price. Buys like that probably aren't as stupid as they seem.
Because I watched it as it happened, the price spiked to 110, and immediately a wall appeared at 110 which was subsequently eaten. Here is a detailed description of events: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=231934.0All I see there is the same two things: "Assuming it was the same person", and "with XXX slippage". After every BTC crash or mini-crash with a rebound that I've seen, there are always several big buys as people try to increase their BTC holdings on the way up before it's too late. They are usually rushed and a bit wild due to Goxlag. There was nothing new there. In my mind, it would be more interesting to speculate on who (and why) caused the sell-off in the first place. Anyway, sorry to S3052 for being off-topic. Just getting sick of the FUD around here. Actually, it's not so much the FUD.... more how it is so readily lapped up. |
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Most of you guys are crazy. Every time the price goes down, "all is well". Any bids or upward movement.... "OMG manipulators".
Ha! Thinly veiled attempt at trying to manipulate the market upwards with this post. Nice try, BitPirate. LOL. ^^ The price is likely to recover to at least $110 -- the pre-weekend sell-off was in anticipation of a dump that never happened; so now it's time for them to buy back. OMG you're right. Creating a fake rally and selling into it is such not a good strategy to make money!  Rally's been coming for days. Other markets are rallying too. The rise isn't manipulation. |
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^ How do you know it was the same buyer?
Also, wasn't $110 the max price of the buy you are talking about (i.e., the resultant price after the buy executed)? I often see the "huge slippage" cited, but we don't actually know what % was bought above market price. It may have been 3.99k at market price, with the last 0.01k driving up the price. Buys like that probably aren't as stupid as they seem.
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Most of you guys are crazy. Every time the price goes down, "all is well". Any bids or upward movement.... "OMG manipulators".
Ha! Thinly veiled attempt at trying to manipulate the market upwards with this post. Nice try, BitPirate. LOL. ^^ The price is likely to recover to at least $110 -- the pre-weekend sell-off was in anticipation of a dump that never happened; so now it's time for them to buy back. |
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Most of you guys are crazy. Every time the price goes down, "all is well". Any bids or upward movement.... "OMG manipulators".
If you don't think manipulation is a part of the market, whether it be bitcoins or equities, you're gravely mistaken. They very much are part of the market. I never said otherwise. |
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Most of you guys are crazy. Every time the price goes down, "all is well". Any bids or upward movement.... "OMG manipulators".
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Numerous bids amounting from 100 to 400 all disappear at once just after a little rally..smells manipulation
No! Simplest explanation: They actually wanted to buy, think they lowballed too low, and are now reconsidering higher offers so they can still get back in at a decent price point. Sure, some may be manipulative walls, but the simplest explanation is usually the safest one. |
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Your statement is entirely contradictory: "They don't normally hold" and "They will sell more now". You can't have it both ways. I suggest you re-examine your logic/biases to ensure your thought process is at least internally consistent. Selling cheap is a race to the bottom that puts you out of business. If businesses are not making a profit selling cheap... they will sell at a higher price, or hold until the price rises. TBH, this is just another proof point that we are oversold. Where is the contradiction? When miners have huge profit margins, they can begin speculating with those. Normally, profit margins are not huge, but currently they still are. "Selling cheap" or "selling expensively" is nothing of concern for a miner. Their job is to sell periodically to cover their bills and pocket a small profit, they aren't speculators. I'm describing just this progression. Hmm I see, sorry I misinterpreted "Miners speculatively holding Bitcoins is not the usual state of things." as "they are not holding now or normally". Regardless, I still think your logic is off. It is very much a seller's business to set the price. It is every bit their concern, as it is for any business, to set a fair price for the commodity they are selling. If you're not making money selling at your current price, and have fixed and/or increasing costs, "selling more" at the current price is not the solution. That just digs your grave faster. You would do better to switch your rigs off and wait. Furthermore, I'd also venture that the average ASIC owner CAN afford to pay their bills... It would be a pretty foolhardy investment to mine BTC if you are struggling to make ends meet. I don't doubt that some are mining on the breadline, but I think extrapolating this persona to the overall miner population is a bit fanciful. Finally, there has been increased supply lately with ASICS coming online prior to the difficulty increase. This will now decrease somewhat. |
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... and we're off!
Will be interesting to see if some of those 13k in bids down to $95 will be panic-moved upwards...
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:-) You can see all the China markets and the USD prices here: http://btckan.com/price (USD is the second column from the left). Sorry for the OT posts :-) |
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Your statement is entirely contradictory: "They don't normally hold" and "They will sell more now". You can't have it both ways. I suggest you re-examine your logic/biases to ensure your thought process is at least internally consistent. Selling cheap is a race to the bottom that puts you out of business. If businesses are not making a profit selling cheap... they will sell at a higher price, or hold until the price rises. TBH, this is just another proof point that we are oversold. |
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Gox is oversold. All the markets in China are higher than Gox -- which makes for a change as they usually settle closer when given enough time.
I can see that plenty of bids are entering order books as people want to buy back, but they are a fair bit off the current price. As confidence returns on Mon/Tues, they will be moved up to market price and back up we will go.
Price won't be able to rise above $110 or so though -- it will take quite some time for confidence to fully return; perhaps a minimum of two weeks. Things will get going though. It's a great buying opportunity (as usual ;-) )
That confidence just takes time, not necessarily lower prices as some would believe.
Using the exchange rate of USD/YUAN, what is the comparable price on Chinese markets? Additionally, your English is excellent  $104 - $105 ATM ：-） |
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Gox is oversold. All the markets in China are higher than Gox -- which makes for a change as they usually settle closer when given enough time.
I can see that plenty of bids are entering order books as people want to buy back, but they are a fair bit off the current price. As confidence returns on Mon/Tues, they will be moved up to market price and back up we will go.
Price won't be able to rise above $110 or so though -- it will take quite some time for confidence to fully return; perhaps a minimum of two weeks. Things will get going though. It's a great buying opportunity (as usual ;-) )
That confidence just takes time, not necessarily lower prices as some would believe.
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It is linked, partially.
[media exposure] * [potential audience size] * [conversion rate]
Will give you new users as a function of media exposure.
However, new users are only one factor in price rises, (albeit an important one). You also need to model the network effects of current users and their behaviour.
It would be interesting to try to build a model of the Bitcoin market.... In modelling the market, however, I don't think it is right to treat each user equally.
I'd come up with a number of possible personas (e.g. geek evangelist; family investor; risk-taking big investor; etc), estimate their overall contribution to the market, and model their behaviour and network effects appropriately.
It's quite a big task and would take a lot of refinement (and a big computer to run the model on until you could get it to match historical data), but could potentially yield some very interesting analysis.
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Time to get back to the deal. Personally, I adore the idea of the single bitcoin being distributed in a traceable way, but there weren't that many proposals on it (at least for what I expected). So it's not like: "I will add it to my wallet and will buy/develop/gamble from the pool". Sure, any development can lead to really cool things, but it's not the main point here. There's no problem with taking half of BTC to yourself and using the rest for a bigger purpose, however there were not that many deep proposals on it. I've selected these favorites, and to make it a bit harder for a final winner, I'll ask to prove their points. So, guys, if you care, please give more details on how you are going to do it and prove it with blockchain/timelog etc.: BitPirate https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158226.msg1686229#msg1686229I like it so far - still ready to do it? Would you share some details on the process? crazyates https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158226.msg1688803#msg1688803Would you care to create a plan for that? MarlboroMan https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158226.msg1694857#msg1694857Sounds cool, just how can you prove? mobile4ever https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158226.msg1702811#msg1702811Could you elaborate on how the plugin is going to function? So far it's a bit vague. And thanks to everyone else too! I'd forgotten about this. It's been a long time -- quite a lot has happened since I posted here (see my sig, LOL). I'm actually in the process of giving away 20 BTC as "marketing expenses" (special offer) to new users on my new China exchange -- and dealing with all the upfront losses as a result. I'd still be up for this though -- I won't turn down 1BTC. :-) Obviously I have a vested interest. Here's how I'd do it... Have you heard about the current Chinese 'Gold Rush'? I'd print out 2,000* high quality flyers and give them to people / leave them lying around outside Shanghai's big gold shops, and to a lesser extent around the business district. The flyer would be printed on glossy paper, double sided. Top side would be about Bitcoin and how it is "Gold 2.0". The bottom side would be "how to buy", but would include directions for my exchange :-) * The quantity would be such that the total cost would be 2BTC -- I'd double your money. I might have to include expenses for handing them out though, as flyposting here is quite high-risk. If after the first day I deemed it too risky, I'd pay someone else to do it for me. So BitPirate if you haven't printed the flyers yet - you are the winner. Just one thing: I would like to get some proof, could you post some photos of the flyers or something similar here? In that case please give me your address. OK, cool! Thanks very much. Let me talk to the other half and get back to you with the flyer design... |
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Only a flash crash or bad news can break the 100 pivot gravity.
Inb4 a newsless slow slide down.  Inb4 rebound to $110 |
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