I think in this decade Bitcoin will be a used as a reserve asset by some central banks, but it will not replace gold right away, it will start slow and as Bitcoin becomes more adopted and more stable, they will be holding more of it. Before Bitcoin will have a chance at replacing gold or US dollar or whatever other asset, there will be a long phase of slow and gradual adoption.
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I know there are a number of possible technical solutions but none I've read about would increase the capacity by orders of magnitude.
There's actually only one solutions - Lightning Network. All other solutions are purely theoretical and were discarded a long time ago. There are some potential optimizations that would slightly boost Bitcoin's on-chain capacity, but it's wrong to think about them as scaling solutions. Bitcoin needs to get 3 orders of magnitude more capacity to compete with fiat payments, and only LN can allow something close to that.
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We hoped for mass adoption to start bottom-up, but it seems like all these institutions are going to get into Bitcoin long before average joes. I actually don't see any problem here, but still it's a bit sad that it didn't go like Satoshi and early Bitcoin enthusiasts have hoped for.
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Unfortunately, working from home isn't always the best solution, people tend to have lower productivity when they are unsupervised, and there can be a lot of distractions when working from home. And videocalls aren't a perfect replacement for live meetings and face-to-face talking, which is also important in work. I already saw a few software companies delaying their products last year because of the drop in productivity caused by switching to remote work.
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NFT is overpriced because there's a lot of crypto millionaires and billionaires who can afford to drop this kind of money on some ephemeral "ownership" of a digital picture. Some of them might be betting that the value will go up if NFT ecosystem will get more traction, which is very naive, because it actually doesn't offer much - it's not fully legally recognized, so it would be hard to actually enforce your ownership.
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Technology for running tokens on Bitcoin's blockchain has existed for years, Counterparty (XCP) is one such example. You could probably use it for NFT even now, just create a token with supply of 1.
But what's the point? NFT is just a hype, it's not a promising new technology that will change the world.
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The thing with bull market is that every correction has a chance to actually not be a correction, but rather the beggining of the crash. I remember how when Bitcoin was hitting $20,000 in 2017 and then started falling, everyone was saying "HODL" and that it's just another correction on the road to $100k. People who buy deep into the bull run should really be careful about it, otherwise they'll have to endure years of being in a loss on their positions.
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I developed one - CoinwatcherBut it has very basic functionality, and it's not transaction based like other portfolios, you simply put how many coins you own, and it will be telling how much they are worth right now, individually and together. It shows the recent price changes, supports displaying prices in over 50 currencies, and your personal data is stored in your local storage.
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The biggest problem with microearnings is that it's simply not worth to anyone, even the poorest people, to spend time looking for these jobs and competing for them. Captcha solving was popular because it was reliable, you could sit and work for hours and slowly earn money. Who wants to refresh a site every minute for some small chance to get a $0.01 task?
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I agree with your points, but you can never be 100% sure with governments. Gold was a widely adopted form of money, and then it got seized because of the Great Depression. Now, you can't seize Bitcoin as easily, but you can ban trading it if government will decide that it hurts them.
Democracy can turn into tyranny in just a couple of years, so nothing is really set in stone in society.
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These problems are not unspoken, they have been known for years. If you just stick around this forum even for a few weeks, you would see discussions regarding all these concerns regularly.
Yes, it is true that Bitcoin has problems, just like any other system in the world. Some of these problems will be fully solved, some only partially. You can't expect a technology that was only created 12 years ago to be perfect already.
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I don't see any problems with the word "crash", it simply means a quick and noticeable fall of the price. I don't think anyone calls 1-2% drop "crash" when speaking about Bitcoin, usually no one even bothers reporting such small changes. The word "crash" is used the same way when people talk about non-crypto markets, so I don't see what's the problem here. I don't think we Bitcoiners should be looking everywhere for signs of conspiracies against Bitcoin, this isn't healthy.
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Shorting Bitcoin in bull market requires good timing to catch correction. And if you can short at the top of the market cycle, you can reap massive profits, which many traders hope for. Similarly, it can be hard to go long in a bear market, when the price keeps falling and falling. Even recently some longs got liquidated during corrections. Trading with leverage is always risky on a volatile market, that's kinda the point of it.
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Cryptocoins can't replace stocks. Just because they are both investments, doesn't mean that one should replace the other. It's like asking when will planes replace trains.
Maybe some day companies will release their stock on decentralized blockchain platforms like Ethereum, though this has been theorized for years and still never happened. Traditional system of managing stocks is good enough for most investors, why change it?
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What if the government develops some technology to jam satellite signals? It's a game of cat and mouse, privacy and freedom activists will be using technology to achieve those goals, government will be using technology to counter it. China shows that Internet can be controlled, and society as a whole too. So, I don't think that Bitcoin is a silver bullet that will solve this problem once and for all.
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They all may want to have their own government-owned currency, but how are they going to solve scalability? Banks can function, because they rely on Visa and Mastercard, and those two companies own a lot of infrastructure to make it possible. Are governments going to build such infrastracture from zero? Cryptocurrency wasn't some major breakthrough in financial technology in any aspect but giving control to the users, so governments can't just take cryptocurrency technology and build their own currency with it and expect it to get mass adopted.
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No, I can't imagine the creator of technology that is the origin of all crypto assets and eventually led to crap like NFT, the person who likely own 1 million Bitcoins, to dabble in NFT or whatever other hype the crypto ecosystem creates. It's like asking "what if Satoshi decided to create an altcoin", "what if Satoshi decided to make an ICO", "what if Satoshi decided to launch a blockchain project". Completely pointless questions, because such things are not going to happen.
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I am surprised after a few comments I am going to be the first one to disagree with what OP says because he bases his reasoning in a false analogy:
I'm going to disagree with OP too. The things that happened with gold can happen with Bitcoin too, just to a smaller extent. The government can control centralized exchanges, where 99% of Bitcoin volume happens, so they could control this market if they wanted to. Trading Bitcoin on a black market would be a huge pain in the ass, because of the risks of scams and other attacks, and other digital payment methods are centralized and regulated, so it would be hard to buy and sell large amounts of coins. It's already hard to buy things with Bitcoin, because few places accept it, if government banned Bitcoin, Bitcoin would be a very hard to use black market store of value.
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It looks like people are throwing millions of dollars at NFT, but they are actually paying with Ether, and I seriously doubt that these buyers are some people outside of crypto who yesterday learned about NFT and today decided to buy them with their fiat money. Most likely the NFT buyers are people who got rich from crypto - early ETH investors who bought thousands of ETH below $10 and now have x100 profit to play with. If/when Bitcoin crashes, the NFT hype will crash too.
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I don't think people often delete their wallets, they are more likely to just forget about them and eventually lose to something like a clean OS reinstallation.
People should treat old wallets the same as they treat their current wallets, unless it's a wallet that was never ever used and its addresses were never given to anyone - such wallets can indeed be safely disposed.
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