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28761  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / 9/11 derail: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread on: August 09, 2014, 09:16:04 PM
Regarding the future of bitcoin...

Does anybody here think that some bitcoin 2.0 will replace bitcoin as the most prominent crypto?
The analogy would be Yahoo vs Google for search and then the position to be a #1 Internet powerhouse.
In 2000 Google was just a single page with a search line (although working great even then) while Yahoo was a $150-200 bil behemoth.
Comes Monero (XMR)...
What would be the chance that Monero replaces BTC eventually as the best coin? 1%, 10%, 70%?
The wallet/account that Monero dev showed yesterday looked awesome.
Disclosure: I started buying XMR, but not sure what % to allocate to it vs BTC

you think shitcoin V0.0.1.SHITCOIN is going to repalce bitcoin?

no

NEW SHINNY SHITCOIN of 2015 is what you wana buy

or ltc for fun.

 Wink

why would I buy LTC when it is almost EXACTLY the same as BTC?
Also, don't be so defensive. I have to say that I used BTC for about a year already and there has been NO significant improvements it anything as far as ease of use, security, etc, except endless talk about regulation plus hedge funds involvement (phew!). There are a bunch of proposals that in most cases don't get implemented plus some esoteric things like Etherium and side chains (that went nowhere so far).

WOW!!!!   If the above bolded part is true, then that is NOT good for BTC to have a year without improvement(s) in the realm of ease of use, security, etc... ... Although we may need to flesh out what "etc." is?  number of bitcoin applications?  public awareness of BTC?  liquidity options?  purchase options? ability to avoid fees options?  ease of setting up BTC accounts?   fears about legality of BTC? the press's treatment of BTC? 

I want improvements in the BTC space too.. especially ease of use and security and some of the "etc.," as well.. whatever "etc." is?


28762  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years? on: August 09, 2014, 09:07:15 PM
Between 50 and 100 BTC should be enough.

the question is-will it be bitcoin or an alt? I say that mostly likely bitcoin (at least ~80% chance), unless it is inhibited by untimely/inappropriate regulation.
However, it tech you never know: witness Google vs Yahoo. Yahoo should have been the most prominent player because it was highly entrenched first mover, but it failed to hold its advantage (most likely because of inept management). They tried to buy Google at one point for a measly 1b. They should have bid until page/brin agreed, maybe 5bil or so. As a result of NOT buying GOOG, yahoo lost  more than 2/3 of its market cap at some point (>100 bil).

The above in bold is NOT the question at the moment.  At the moment, the investment question pertains to BTC, and investing into BTC with your fiat. 

If you want to invest into an alt crypto-currency, then you need to ask different questions and consider those questions within a different framework... OP did NOT ask that question, and that question is only tangentially related to the subject of this thread..... However, to play along a little bit with your question, if you invest in BTC, NOW, then you can still continue to monitor the overall BTC situation, standing, adoption, network, long-term security and to switch as needed or if needed if that momentum seems to be changing.. and accordingly, switch, if needed, your investment over to google.. if google ends up taking over yahoo...
28763  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 09, 2014, 08:53:06 PM
This is fun.  We're like a group of dogs with a bone, but instead of snapping at each other we pass the bone around and just kind of growl in satisfaction because we're civilized dogs.

Actually, surprisingly, for being a fairly unmodified thread, we are MOSTLY civilized in spite of a few outbursts here and there.
28764  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years? on: August 09, 2014, 08:11:22 PM
I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC. Smiley

also 100 btc at 10k each, faster i think, 10k is not that hard to get, especially in 5-6 years, one should aim at 1M dollar

Actually, this seems more realistic.... to achieve $1 million in 5-6 years...  Yet, there are quite a few people  (probably including a large number of those reading this thread) who are going to have trouble accumulating 100BTC within manageable reasonableness and to feel o.k. losing their investment (in the event that the whole BTC thing crashes)..   Currently, 100BTC is a $60k investment, which would be tough to manage for people just starting out... .unless they have accumulated assets in other categories that they are ready, willing and able to diversify into BTC holdings.
28765  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 09, 2014, 07:53:15 PM


........Conversely, trying to "fundamentalize" the May 20 breakout seems silly to me. There was no strong fundamental reason in the vicinity of that date that is likely to have caused it. In fact, that you keep coming back to this date/price event shows how unsatisfactory any fundamental explanations of it so far have been.

The way to look at this one is technical, but since you believe technical explanations are circular or uninformative, they're not available to you, so I predict you will come continue searching for an explanation in the future as well Cheesy


The bolded part above sheds some light on Jorge's MO.  Jorge tends to get caught on some narrow detail and then to harp on it, as if he has some enlightened detail that deserves an answer, and really in fact, it remains a means to troll us and to get us off topic and to get us talking about irrelevant triviality... like how many angels can dance on the top of a pin head... very interesting in academia, but very little relevancy in the real world.
28766  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 09, 2014, 07:42:42 PM


That is one reason why I am skeptical of bitcoin: I have yet to see a "business plan", a consistent and fairly complete description of a future "bitcoin economy", with explicit numbers for volume of commercial use, fees, confirmation delays, deflation rate, wealth distribution, hoarding, banking, legal status, taxes, mining costs, etc.

That "business plan" does not have to be probable, and I don't mind if there is no plan to get there from here; but it would have to be detailed enough to withstand "attacks" by skeptics.  Like, why would people use BTC for payments, if it is not inflationary -- why would they not hoard every BTC they get, and use some Garbagecoin or national currencies for payments?  But if they were to do that, why would bitcoin have any value at all?

The simplistic arguments of trillions divided by 21 million seem to fall apart once one tries to fill in the details...

More or less you are assuming centralization and then asking for centralization - besides being blinded into NOT seeing positive BTC news and developments and blinded into wanting answers to too many questions that cannot be answered at the moment b/c many of the answers depend upon the evolution of the network and multiple players building the infrastructure.  Further, whether BTC is a long term success in 20 to 100 years does NOT matter to it being a success right NOW... so go out and buy a BTC Jorge, and join the club and become informed rather than an on-the-sidelines mudslinger.   Roll Eyes
28767  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years? on: August 09, 2014, 07:33:17 PM
I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC. Smiley

Ok.... so that would be $1 million if the 25BTC achieves your target price of $40k per BTC.  

a) Are you planning to buy the 25 BTC now?
or
b)  have you already bought some of the 25 BTC?
or
c) will you to just continue to buy them over the coming years?    
or
d) do you continue to buy and trade BTC, but you will just keep 25BTC in a form of cold storage?  

Right now 25 BTC would cost about $15K.

Why are his holdings relevant to make a price prediction?

Disclaimer: Holder of >25 coins Wink


Details remain important in any financial planning, including questions regarding whether the investor continues to invest and/or monitor over the investment over years, or if the investor just sets aside the investment and hold.  

Setting aside and holding could work, except what does a person do with the ongoing flow of fiat (invest in BTC or some other asset or just blow it)?

And, usually, income goes up through the years, and a person is able to buy more of asset X or Y or Z or to dedicate a higher portion of income to investing... but it is NOT a given that a person will plan to invest over the coming years if the person sets aside and consumes nearly all of his/her paycheck.






True, I think I missread the messege of CEG5952.

Best would be to gradually increase holding to get to 25 BTC. The risk with this is that the BTC price could explode before you reach any near 25 BTC.


Disclaimer---- Currently, I hold more than 25 BTC, too.    Wink

Danny:  I think that you and I are on more  or less the same page in our attempts to figure out an investment strategy that an investor who is attempting to achieve 25 BTC in 5-6 years could employ, yet there still do remain some devil in the details regarding current holdings.. and the fact that it will likely take a lot more fiat in the future to buy the same amount of BTC.

For example, if I had ONLY just heard about BTC, yet I was attempting to figure out what to do, I would likely read up upon it quickly in order to figure out my investment strategy, and if I came to the conclusion that BTC seemed to be a good investment avenue, I would likely attempt to front load my investment and then dollar cost average the remaining of the term.  

Also, I would probably end up over achieving the 25 BTC, just to have a cushion.  

Also, it is likely that I would also notice that BTC prices have been in a downward trend for 9 months but that BTC has had history of magnificent exponential growth--- and there is NO real evidence to establish that some similar exponential growth could NOT occur.. and in fact it appears that there could be exponential growth any time in the very near future, which would cause me to invest a lot more early on.

Therefore, I would frontload as much as I could and then just hedge future price downswings by continuing to invest fiat into BTC on a dollar cost basis.... all of this with money that I feel that I could afford to lose... in the event that the whole thing comes crashing down.







28768  Other / Off-topic / Re: What's your opinion about TA and 9/11 on: August 09, 2014, 05:54:35 PM
Is there a difference between TA and T & A?

One wants the bottom line to increase the other doesn't.

I personally subscribe to the philosophy that u gotta get them thin b/c they are only gonna get bigger.   Wink
28769  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years? on: August 09, 2014, 05:52:07 PM
I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC. Smiley

Ok.... so that would be $1 million if the 25BTC achieves your target price of $40k per BTC. 

a) Are you planning to buy the 25 BTC now?
or
b)  have you already bought some of the 25 BTC?
or
c) will you to just continue to buy them over the coming years?   
or
d) do you continue to buy and trade BTC, but you will just keep 25BTC in a form of cold storage?   

Right now 25 BTC would cost about $15K.

Why are his holdings relevant to make a price prediction?

Disclaimer: Holder of >25 coins Wink


Details remain important in any financial planning, including questions regarding whether the investor continues to invest and/or monitor over the investment over years, or if the investor just sets aside the investment and hold. 

Setting aside and holding could work, except what does a person do with the ongoing flow of fiat (invest in BTC or some other asset or just blow it)?

And, usually, income goes up through the years, and a person is able to buy more of asset X or Y or Z or to dedicate a higher portion of income to investing... but it is NOT a given that a person will plan to invest over the coming years if the person sets aside and consumes nearly all of his/her paycheck.




28770  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 09, 2014, 05:23:59 PM
Most of these things listed above are NOT pyramid schemes, unless they are causing value to float to the top without any reciprocating value being transferred below.  The only way that value gets transferred lower down the pyramid is to find more suckers below.  None of these listed items are pyramid schemes, unless they are designed as such.  Bitcoin is also NOT a pyramid scheme b/c there are tangible assets, including an infrastructure and a network and continued investments in side businesses.... NO need to explain further at the moment b/c these pyramid scheme/ponzi arguments are totally attempting to simplify bitcoin into something that it is NOT and playing upon ignorance.

What you are writing is correct but you are arguing in a sophistry manner, bitcoin is no pyramid scheme, regarding the typical fraudulent definitions. It's a semantic shift by mmitech, talking of pyramid scheme but meaning a pyramidical wealth distribution. Reading you, I get the impression that you are not silly (even as I would not agree with a lot of your quoted text) and you understood the regarding context. That the wealth of bitcoin is distributed as a pyramid - I think this is undoubtably. But as I said earlier, that is capitalism - not only bitcoin.


Wealth of Bitcoin is more likely to be a Boltzmann type distribution (in my opinion)

In other words, diffuse?; however,  aren't early adopters gonna keep their coins and serve as banks?
28771  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 09, 2014, 05:18:18 PM
Price is fairly stable. Bears come out and try to talk people into selling by predicting a fall down to 3xx and 4xx. Hrmph.

In other words:  HODL!!!!   or BUY!!!
28772  Other / Off-topic / Re: What's your opinion about TA and 9/11 on: August 09, 2014, 11:22:50 AM
USA did 9/11 but what is TA?

Trrrrrrist Activity

Lol I thouht it was "T1tz 'n A$$"

Yeah.  I answered the poll, but I did NOT know what I was answering.  Is there a difference between TA and T & A?
28773  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 09, 2014, 10:39:27 AM
I hope it goes to 470 to give a gleaning point.

As much as I'd hate to see Bitcoin go to the $400s again, I also think that this would we a much needed fresh start, to be honest... Although I'd much rather see a nice breakout from where we are now, to up north!

Maybe we are stuck in this upper $500s to lower $600s for a reason  - and that is that there is just NOT enough people willing to sell into the lower $500s anymore... and in that regard, it just does NOT seem too likely that BTC prices are going into the lower $500s anymore absent some pretty big time negative news.

I mean, I do NOT even know where Risto is getting this $470 from .. or even imaginging that $470 is possible... Maybe he is just saying $470 to troll us - b/c he really does NOT believe $470 is in the realm of real probabilities?
28774  Other / Off-topic / Re: What's your opinion about TA and 9/11 on: August 09, 2014, 10:09:44 AM
I refuse to vote in this aristotelian either/or choice poll  Grin
You just afraid to take your side in the battle.  Grin


I voted, but I really do NOT like your questions.. they seem too simple.. and don't quite fit my opinion... but I did my best and voted.   Wink
28775  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years? on: August 09, 2014, 09:55:27 AM
I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC. Smiley

Ok.... so that would be $1 million if the 25BTC achieves your target price of $40k per BTC. 

a) Are you planning to buy the 25 BTC now?
or
b)  have you already bought some of the 25 BTC?
or
c) will you to just continue to buy them over the coming years?   
or
d) do you continue to buy and trade BTC, but you will just keep 25BTC in a form of cold storage?   

Right now 25 BTC would cost about $15K.
28776  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years? on: August 09, 2014, 09:43:07 AM
The real topic of this thread is too vague for anyone to answer for anyone but him/herself.  I mean, if you have a huge vegetable garden and you have some goats then maybe you make cheese from you goats' milk and maybe you eat the vegetables from your garden and maybe you don't have to pay for food so that might be a huge expenditure for others that you don't pay.  Alternatively, maybe you have a mortgage on your home or maybe you don't.  There are too many factors in order to say generally how much money someone needs to "retire" much less how much money one needs in btc.
It's vague only if one reads the thread title, but doesn't read the opening post. OP exactly specifies the required amount: annual income of 30K USD in today's purchasing power.

Funny that we are ON page 8, of this thread, and OP has NOT chimed in to clarify his intent and/or to state whether we are getting close to helping him to answer his question.  Surely, there were some individual factors that were left out of the OP - but he did give us quite a bit to work with and to extrapolate upon.. and yes, some of us have deviated to some extent from some of the parameters of the OP.

Even though the various tangents in this thread could be helpful to other readers of the thread, sometimes it is also nice, and helpful, if OP could chime in to let us know if our various responses are helping him/her.
28777  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 09, 2014, 09:20:29 AM
Minor technicality:  I would NOT call 3,600 BTC daily as almost 4k BTC daily. 

I am inclined to think that the overwhelming majority of mined coins move exactly once, at this point.  I should check.  If I am right it is indicative of price suppression on the exchanges to get good marks for buying virgin coin on contract.  Which in turn is indicative of a massive bubble imminent.  But I haven't checked yet.



hey, cool! that would indeed be a good indication of the hypothesis (miners sell directly) being correct!

do you have the means to check this? If so I would like to kindly ask you to do so.


+1... I would like to second that and to "kindly ask" you to check into the matter.... and report back to us...  Cheesy    Wink
28778  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 09, 2014, 09:17:51 AM
Looking good. I mean, for those people who are wanting to buy.

Yeah, looking like it. Undecided

100% retrace and then some on that pump. I guess it was just a short squeeze after all. Damn..... life of a bagholder.

What kind of a bag holder are you?  Hopefully BTC!!!  Much better to be in BTC than in fiat... just need a little patients.. could be one day or could be six months.  Yet, in the end, it is going to be better to be a "bag holder," so long the bag that your holding contains BTC rather than fiat.
28779  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years? on: August 09, 2014, 01:46:32 AM
I will need at least 20-30 million to retire, otherwise it will not be a fun enough retirement. Considering the number I hold, Bitcoin has to go through massive bubbles to achieve this Grin

Right now just look it as disposable extra money which is a bonus to my normal income.


Either you must be a kid - who has NO real idea or experience(s) regarding the life-draining aspects of working (of course there will be some variation in the degree to which work is life-draining), or on the other hand, currently, you may just be a work-a-holic who thinks that a person gets meaning through work?  On the other hand (am I running out of hands?), you have a real high standard of living (and you believe that you need to continue to maintain such).  There are a lot of ways to retire on much less than some abstract $20-30 million - just consider that $1 million can generate about $4k per month gross in interest (or appreciation), and $10 million can generate 10X that.  Most people can figure out a way to live fairly comfortable between $1 and $10 million, and certainly, there may be reasons that a person has preferences to have a monthly income higher than $40k - but to me, as I already explained, it seems a bit pie in the sky or maybe motivated by other unstated reasons to feel that you need to acquire more than $10million.

I am not really an workaholic, but I do somewhat like the work. I know once I give up work there is no turning back. The point is if I take the step it has to be really worthwhile, and enough reserves so that I don't have to think about working again.

But really, $20-30 million?  Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month and then you can do whatever you like, pretty much... Beyond $10million, just seems to be overkill, unless you have a specific reason for such.

But there can be unforseen risks. Some of my investments might tank, there might be a big crisis. 10m is fine, except that I want to be doubly sure. Once I get addicted to that lifestyle there is no coming back.

HELLO?Huh?   That is why you live within your means (live within the means of the passive income of the investment), and diversify the principle and possibly even continue to reinvest a portion of your income (meaning do NOT withdraw it). 

The extent to which you draw into your principle depends in part on your expectations and calculations regarding how long you expect to live or how many years you will be needing to draw income off of the principle.   

You should be able to easily live within your means between $5 and $10 million (that is between $20k and $40k per month).... If we are talking about amounts below $2million (b/c that would be less than $8k per month), then it may become a little more difficult, but it should be considerably manageable to figure out a way to live within your means and to allow the principle to continue to increase in value - especially when we are getting into the $5million and above arenas.

In any event with $5 to $10 million in principle, you should be able to figure out a way to live off of half of the interest (that is between $20k/2 and $40k/2 = $10K and $20k per month).  therefore, the principle will continue to increase in value, and you can continue to increase the amount of your withdrawal as your principle continues to grow.  Then you will have more money later in life and also a cushion and also the principle to fall back upon for your final years.

I repeat that if you need more than $10million as principle, then you should specify a reason for such need for more b/c merely stating that there could be unforeseen risks means that you have failed to adequately plan and/or to diversity and/or to live within your means.


28780  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 09, 2014, 01:15:54 AM

Wow, that's a lot of BTC people put in. Never understood why I should buy Ether, myself. Any thoughts on whether this 25k+ BTC might have a negative impact on BTC/USD?

I think only negative impact on ETH stockholders.

But in the blog, they're talking about literally dumping some of the BTC on the market for expenses payable in fiat currency. How much is not clear. I suppose those with debt payable in BTC were likely to have held in the first place, though.

It is very good for Bitcoin. Cheap coins will change hands.

Ah, sure, I didn't mean "bad for bitcoin"... by negative impact on BTC/USD, I just meant a downward pressure on the price. The whole thing is a bit opaque, though. Not clear to me how much it could affect that.

There are almost 4k BTC minted daily. ... ( so wait one more week)


Minor technicality:  I would NOT call 3,600 BTC daily as almost 4k BTC daily. 
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