I think that you make a lot of good points, Richy T... ; however, at the same time, I believe that there is a considerable amount of upside potential for BTC prices in the near future (although I have been making those kinds of assertions throughout 2014). In any event, there have been a lot of positive developments in the bitcoin infrastructure over the past year.
Accordingly, it seems very plausible that BTC is going to experiences at least one or two more exponentially upward price surges (maybe in the 5x to 20x territory) in the coming years - whether such an upward price surge occurs in 2015 remains a point of speculation, at this point.
At this current price point, I am fairly optimistic that 2x to 2.5x price increase is very likely to occur in 2015; however, I believe if prices go beyond a 2.5x price increase, then it seems very likely that prices will shoot past the previous ATH into the $3k to $9k territory... just my own personal sense of the BTC market dynamics.
I find little to disagree with there. 2015 could be a fairly lackluster year and 2-2.5 does seem like the minimum if things potter along at "doing OK". I hope to see some dramatic gains but we may have to wait for the halving in 2016. I think 2014 will be seen as the year that bubble money went into mining instead of buying bitcoins and the supply of fresh bitcoins being affected accordingly. The hashrate will be the chart to watch I think.
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