This is what I have been trying to teach to sloanf, that if you don't use international pricing then analysis is entirely wrong:QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, I have a question for your Blog . Do we need a falling dollar, like today, to see Gold rise? Thank you SH Germany ANSWER: No. When the majority begin to see government is really in trouble, gold will rise with stocks as they have done going into 1980 as well as 1929 (in basket terms). The press is still touting the world is fine with government in charge. The polls are showing people are losing faith. It is a gradual process which will snap in 2017. The REAL function of gold is the hedge against government – not inflation. Neither do we find any correlation that is consistent to imply that increasing the money supply will make gold rise. When you put the theory aside and just look at the data, you will see that gold rises when CONFIDENCE in government declines. When gold hit $875 in 1980, the national debt of the US reached $1 trillion. We are now approaching $20 trillion. Obviously, all the sales jobs they use to sell gold are just fiction.  Yearly – 1920 to 1950 in Basket of Global Currencies Here is what gold really did during the period 1920 to 1950 through the eyes of a basket of currencies rather than just the gold standard fix of $20.67 and then $35. It was the dollar that rose extremely high going into 1934 which is why Roosevelt devalued the dollar. Gold had actually fallen BELOW the gold standard price of $20.67 to $19.78.
And do understand what is coming starting sometime between March and May and refer to my upthread post of predictions from MA:Now look at gold in January 1970. It fell BELOW the Bretton Woods gold standard price of $35. I was a kid. I was stunned at the time. I thought gold could never go under the “official” pegged price. I was clearly wrong. With time, I came to see that markets always made a FALSE MOVE in the opposite direction before a big move. You need this type of false flag move for it cleans out everyone. This is what we are doing right now. We just have to do this. We will get everyone off-side and then slam them. The bearishness in the Euro is too great so it must rally to clean-out the shorts making them think the Euro has bottomed and QE is working at last, and then when the majority flip positions, wham, it will unfold.  So beware of market false moves. This is just the pendulum swinging to both extremes. It must do so to create the energy for the opposite direction.
QUESTION: Martin, You have said on multiple occasions, that gold will only rise when the Market loses confidence in the Gov’t.This Mid-Benchmark Rally you note here in this article.
is this a temporary blip???, temporary rally???, that will still pop and go bust to the low side???
Or are people losing Confidence in Gov’t now??? is that happening hence this rally???
Thanks
SH
ANSWER: Of course there are many of us who have already lost our confidence in government. Odds are you would not be reading the blog otherwise. Granted, more than 3 million unique viewer read this blog. We are still well below the 10% mark of the US adult population which would be about 23 million, so we are far from that level at this time.
Nevertheless, the rise in the polls of Donald Trump reflect this growing dissatisfaction with government. When Social Security goes bust in 2017, our computer is projecting that between 2017 and 2020 is when we will most likely see the collapse in confidence.
Therefore, it is still premature to expect a breakout just yet. Governments are still moving toward negative interest rates. This will help shift capital from PUBLIC to PRIVATE.
The volatility is still insane. Gold should make a new low yet this year. However, since we DID NOT get the sell signal in gold at year-end, then this is the bounce, but do not expect it to be a breakout just yet.
[...]
We are finally starting to get the breakout to complete the retest in the Euro which has been vital to achieve. This is also helping gold as well. We need these counter-trend moves to end the consolidation the market have been trapped in since the book-squaring at year-end.
We are finishing up the world currency reports. The reports are not ready at this time, but we will make an announcement once they are available.
As we stated at the conferences, nothing appears ready to break before May. Nevertheless, the crazy period ahead appears to be the 2017-2020 time frame. The euro held the Yearly Bearish at the 103 area and elected the 116 number. Normally we would see a rally first to retest that area before turning down.
Every time the dollar moves to record highs, we get major monetary reform. Roosevelt devalued the dollar in 1934, and in 1985 when the dollar was pushed to all-time record highs they formed G5, which is now G20. When it broke in 1971, we ended up with the Floating Exchange Rate System. Extreme moves in the dollar spark political economic reform. Governments see this coming and are preparing to move electronic.
This is the type of move we need to see to create the change in the monetary system once again. It will probably take the form of the U.S. dollar no longer being the reserve currency. We will probably be looking at some electronic currency based on a basket.
So nothing has changed yet. We have a long, hard, road ahead into 2020. The Fed knows there is a problem and raising rates may attract too much capital inflow. They are entertaining negative interest rates to ward-off the inflow of capital. Of course, such a move will create a massive collapse of pension funds nationwide. Most state pension schemes will go belly-up.
The Federal Reserve has been talking to U.S. banks behind the curtain and asking them to consider that the Fed might have to do the same to stop the capital inflows. In its annual stress test, the Fed will assess the ability of big banks to survive a drop to negative rates on the three-month U.S. Treasury bill, which simply becomes prolonged.
The central bank announced the stress test for 2016 last week, commenting, “The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession, accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities.”
Negative Interest Rates will flip investment and drive capital into the [USA] stock market just for yield. If pension funds do not dump government debt, they will go bankrupt. This is totally insane and even Social Security will collapse.
For sloanf, I inserted "[USA]" in the quote above so he doesn't misinterpret MA's intent because:The Federal Reserve is in a real crisis. Interest rates are falling negative around the world which by no means has succeeded in stimulating anything. Governments are dead broke and they keep raising taxes yet hope the central bank can compensate by lowering interest rates to negative. Between rising Taxes and declining interest rates, this toxic-mix is destroying pension funds and wiping out the elderly. There is nobody in government who has any common sense to see this is going to wipe out the economy – not stimulate anything.
Which is consistent with MA's theme of the world's capital wanting to flee to the safe of the USA, but instead of USA bonds it will be forced into USA stocks.
The above is an example of why when sloanf cherry picks data from a few blog posts, he gets lost in the forest as to the holistic meaning and predictions.
Gold will be driven underground. If you have too much gold jewelry on, they will pull you over and weight it at the airport. So, this guy would be in trouble.
In all cases where a currency has been cancelled or the confidence in government collapses to any extent, from Russia to a Zimbabwe event, the people use the currency of a neighboring country. The best thing for Europeans to do right now is to hoard U.S. dollars in cash — not euros, and not even Swiss francs. The Swiss will surrender to the demands of the EU, so I would not count on those 1,000 Swiss franc notes remaining valid for long either. The USA would find it extremely difficult to move to electronic currency. The USD remains the legal tender since 1792. It has never been cancelled and it might even spark a breakup of the USA with the Bible Belt whom is moving to secede.
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Excellent and I like how he speaks very quickly so I don't get bored. The chart at 20:20 is amazing. The Middle East and Australia need to tumble economically. [...] Readers make sure you view the aforementioned chart (in the video at 20:20, not the chart below), as it explains why India and China will rise after 2020 and lead the world. Hildago's academic research validates Martin Armstrong's long-standing prediction about this and MA's famous chart: |
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Another excellent piece, trollerc. Thanks for posting it. Europe is on the edge of becoming a neutered country, incapable of maintaining its society along the norms of "The West". 5 - 10 years after, they will become Islamicized. It's already starting to happen, yet the Socialist Retards running EVERYTHING over there are hypnotized... I wonder, trollerc, if the USA and/or Australia will allow their women to be harassed like that. My guess is "no", but who knows. At least in the West or South in the USA the Musloids would get an immediate ticket to their heaven, where their 72 goats await them. Again, while I comprehend the arguments (and agree with some eg the idiocy of the PC movement), the seeming thought process that supposes some kind of preordained muslim plan to over run Europe is myopic[...] Ahem... [...]Even those in the past who rebutted me with, "but the miners can be in every country and the USA can't control every country", have had to eat their words now that we've shown that China has monopolized mining and is even lying about their justification for 51% attacking Bitcoin. I was warning about Tragedy of the Commons centralization of control in 2013 and everyone said I was loony[1] and now even Germany is instituting the BigT lie to implement capital controls[2] ( why do you think Merkel and the Troika allowed 1.1 million muslims to invade Germany! it was to make the people feel unsafe!). We the masses will never be able to have privacy from the government (from our society) until we all decide that priority is the most important and force our will on the government. That isn't going to happen for the masses until after they suffer through some totalitarianism in the 2017 - 2032 timeframe. Some of the masses are aware enough to perhaps not like NSA snooping (yet some support it as they support the military for their safety, nationalistic pride, and dominance of the USA as the reserve currency), but it isn't the most important priority that they are willing to fight for with all their effort and zeal. The Chinese (not all perhaps but enough do) actually support the single party Communist system, because afaik they think that people need to be disciplined and they think this provides a more harmonious society. tabnloz your bleeding heart is understandable and perhaps even admirable, until you understand scientifically that if we allowforce too much change too fast, we destroy resiliency and fitness. The action in Europe was not driven by a self-annealing free market, but rather by a conniving top-down powers-that-be (in synergy with the desire of most people for socialism, i.e. the Iron Law of Political Economics). And they are leading the world into Dark Age. I am attacking this problem from the angle of social networks and crypto currency. |
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[...] It’s a good argument. However, I would note that from the frame of reference of life not all entropy is the same. There is useful entropy information that facilitates further search and there is useless entropy noise which is either irrelevant or possibly inhibits the formation of higher information content.
Agreed as noted above. Please note (and also in reference to thaaanos' post below) that no one can know what is the noise and what is the data, because in unbounded entropy no one can know a total ordering and predict the future precisely enough to know how to organize the mutations. Without friction and a finite speed-of-light, 0 entropy and infinite entropy would be indistinguishable and the game collapses. Martin Armstrong can find higher dimensions of order (repeating cycle patterns) in the chaotic interaction of a plurality of interacting cycles (Butterfly effects) which has been named the Strange Attractor in Lorentz's famous and widely respected Chaos Theory. So he can determine timings on repeating cycles, but he can't tell nature which mutations which adapt to the future because he can't know all the details about the future. He can see one partial ordering which is more informational than than those who don't compile and multi-dimensionally inspect as much data as he claims. [...] |
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TPTB your post above was very good. First time in a while that I had to reread what you wrote a few times. It reminded me in some ways of your initial writings linked in the opening post.
Sincerely thank you. I hope I still have some of that still in me, but I tell you frankly that chronic disease has taken its toll on my energy and mental clarity. In addition to my herbal experiments, I hope to be able to afford a first-world, western diagnosis (hopefully this year if my plans in the area of social networks and crypto currency pan out). Also I've been too frantically overloaded (energy wise) on crypto currency technology and marketing research&development to have any free time whatsoever to reflect on other intellectual interests. Those are the reasons I exited this thread and I don't think I can stay in this thread for the same reasons (so far my health has improved significantly on the high dose curcumin extract but not perfect, yet now I have piled an even more ambitious work load on my plate). Also the quality of my prose and well-focused elucidation declines with the huge volume that I write. But again thank you. CoinCube I wonder if you as a doctor can even know what your patients feel if you haven't experienced their illness yourself. I have come to the conclusion that no one who hasn't had daily chronic illness could comprehend (the daily feeling of the malaise) how it grinds down even the most determined fighter spirit. As a doctor, you can observe the lethargy and (possibly stoic) grimaces, but this can significantly understate what the patient is feeling inside; OTOH there are other patients who wail and exaggerate. (Also I do understand why you could not comment on my herbal treatments due to liability issues being I presume a licensed doctor or at least your responsibilities in your profession) Of course in the future one of my missions in retired life will be to help those who have chronic illness. If I can. Right now, I am also thinking about the Zika virus potentially destroying the fertility of females all over world. I don't know if that virus will be self-limiting, e.g. due to community immunity. For example, my gf and I were discussing how her younger sisters can't avoid the mosquitoes and hoping we have the funds to improve their living environment before Zika is widespread in the Philippines. But then the other billions of young ladies in the developing world.  Maybe nature needs to cull the population to drive more competition or otherwise strength the evolutionary path. As you know from upthread discussion, I don't believe there is any overpopulation problem that can't be resolved eventually by the Knowledge Age. We have to be in awe of this complex system of nature and evolution here on earth. To belittle it claiming our earthy ecosystem is irrelevant on a cosmic scale due to only physical (atoms) interpretation of thermodynamics is a perspective that troubles my intuitive sense of value. Yet it is always best to formalize and quantify so that the those who prioritize Sensing over i Ntuition will be convinced. You are arguing that the primary goal of life is to increase its information content which is the functional equivalent of increasing the number and probability of its possible configurations (a.k.a. states). As Entropy is proportional to the logarithm of multiplicity[probabilistic diversity] (the number of microstates) the primary goal of life is therefore to increase its internal entropy.
Well I reflect on your upthread point and the research you cited, that argues that too many mutations (too much diversity) can diverge from the fitness w.r.t. the current priorities of the system (environment). Since nature can't predict how the environment will morph in the future, it has to balance mutations against repairing them, so as to anneal slowly enough so as to not diverge yet also anneal to environmental change fast enough to avoid extinction during radical environmental shifts (e.g. an Ice Age). Plants have the ability to store their genetic information for 1000s of years in ice and be regenerated (see the recent example from Siberia of an ancient plant discovered in ice and regenerated...yet I forget if the seeds sprouted when thawed or human genetic engineering was involved). But plants don't create literature and other dynamic forms of living human knowledge (the network of connections between living humans) that can't necessarily be encoded and preserved in ice. So I argue that evolution (nature) is maximizing its balance between near-term and long-term fitness and resiliency. Since nature can't predict if its parameters are correct, it creates a diversity of species with different parameters. This brings me back to my oft-stated point that the universe could not exist without friction, i.e. the speed-of-light can't be infinite, because otherwise past and future would collapse into an infinitesimal point and nothing would exist. So if nature simply wanted to become maximally disordered, then there would be no friction, no game, and past and future would collapse into non-existence. The logical beauty of the magnificent game of our Universe caused even someone as brilliant as Einstein even pondered whether thus must be some divine inspiration. Note though that Einstein wasn't that awesome in math (although not derelict) and was an intuitive thinker. It’s a good argument. However, I would note that from the frame of reference of life not all entropy is the same. There is useful entropy information that facilitates further search and there is useless entropy noise which is either irrelevant or possibly inhibits the formation of higher information content.
Agreed as noted above. Please note (and also in reference to thaaanos' post below) that no one can know what is the noise and what is the data, because in unbounded entropy no one can know a total ordering and predict the future precisely enough to know how to organize the mutations. Without friction and a finite speed-of-light, 0 entropy and infinite entropy would be indistinguishable and the game collapses. Martin Armstrong can find higher dimensions of order (repeating cycle patterns) in the chaotic interaction of a plurality of interacting cycles (Butterfly effects) which has been named the Strange Attractor in Lorentz's famous and widely respected Chaos Theory. So he can determine timings on repeating cycles, but he can't tell nature which mutations which adapt to the future because he can't know all the details about the future. He can see one partial ordering which is more informational than than those who don't compile and multi-dimensionally inspect as much data as he claims. Below are two older post from thaaanos that add to the discussion. Data irrelevant to an actor is noise, information that cannot be accessed, environment entropy
As i said information is not created it is discovered, or carved out of the entropy of the universe. When 2 actors come together and communicate ultimately its is done by sharing a state, not flow but entanglement! their later computation based on the new information does not increase the information content simply shifts focus, that is we asume fixed memory, or at least bounded. Now you can argue that actors can record information but still the argument holds because there is not infinite supply of memory, or that actors can coordinate to hold diffrent parts of information so as to maximize total capacity but that just shifts entropy up or down in the network hierarcy
Perhaps life in this context can be envisioned as an energy driven search through entropy with selective retention. Life must protect the integrity of its previously stored information and noise must be evaluated and discarded. Life must simultaneously increase its information content so it can respond to a dynamic environment. Perhaps this trade off can be thought of as the balance between search and exploitation. The search through entropy is costly and consumes energy. As the energy available to any branch of life is strictly limited the search must also be controlled and limited. Indeed actual information content is relative to the observer's resonance to the signal. This is why pitch forks tuned to the same frequency will resonate across great distances when only one of them is struck. This is why design of microwave transducers (e.g. for mobile phones) involves in metrics such as the Q. My point to thaaanos is that no one knows which is information and which is signal a priori in a dynamic system where there is no top-down omniscience. Even if the system has no game theory where participants lie, there is still the problem that the speed-of-light is finite, thus omniscience to a centralized point of computation is impossible. Btw, this is what the block chain centralization issue is all about as well and why the CAP theorem is inviolable. CoinCube, if there were no free market (not balanced, but a competition of experiments) annealing that you allude to then nature would need omniscience to balance costs and optimize convergence. But the beauty of the game of the Universe (i.e. life) is that the method for convergence is to have a plurality of experiments (e.g. species, cosmic structures, etc), which is also a trend to maximum entropy. One day I hope to have the time and mental clarity to refine all of this and see where it leads when formalized. Or perhaps CoinCube et al will. I am getting a bit old for revolutionary scientific achievements (and having a minor relapse today which affects my mood to degraded expectations). The very significant breakthroughs are typically done before age 40 or thereabouts. I was actually starting to get reinterested in studying more higher math courses and my intellectual pursuits in my mid-40s but illness and more family upheaval overtook me. I did manage to write those essays linked from the OP at the tail end of my 40s. I look back on my life as a lot of time wasted. Starting with a turbulent childhood and attending more elementary schools than I have fingers on one hand, some of them inner-city disasters (e.g. Baton Rouge) where there was no teacher in the classroom! I only sprouted in 8th grade when my father paid for me to attend Ecole Classique, then suddenly I was mastering Algebra 1, Geometry, etc and catching up but then more family problems hit my life in high school. Then ditto college. Then ditto after college. CoinCube is much younger than I. For anyone with kids, make sure you give them a stable environment to learn in. But not too antiseptically stable (because you can't learn everything from books or as Einstein said, "don't read too much, or you lose your ability to think for yourself"), otherwise they might lose their creative and out-of-the-box instincts. CoinCube I guess one might say I gained a lot of insight and experience from turbulent life, but my experiments were too costly. I overshot the best balance and underachieved. Fortunately nature has a solution for my failures— which is all of you. So I am at peace with it. Everyone's journey has a purpose in the overall scheme of the game of life.
Another excellent piece, trollerc. Thanks for posting it. Europe is on the edge of becoming a neutered country, incapable of maintaining its society along the norms of "The West". 5 - 10 years after, they will become Islamicized. It's already starting to happen, yet the Socialist Retards running EVERYTHING over there are hypnotized... I wonder, trollerc, if the USA and/or Australia will allow their women to be harassed like that. My guess is "no", but who knows. At least in the West or South in the USA the Musloids would get an immediate ticket to their heaven, where their 72 goats await them. Again, while I comprehend the arguments (and agree with some eg the idiocy of the PC movement), the seeming thought process that supposes some kind of preordained muslim plan to over run Europe is myopic[...] Ahem... [...]Even those in the past who rebutted me with, "but the miners can be in every country and the USA can't control every country", have had to eat their words now that we've shown that China has monopolized mining and is even lying about their justification for 51% attacking Bitcoin. I was warning about Tragedy of the Commons centralization of control in 2013 and everyone said I was loony[1] and now even Germany is instituting the BigT lie to implement capital controls[2] ( why do you think Merkel and the Troika allowed 1.1 million muslims to invade Germany! it was to make the people feel unsafe!). We the masses will never be able to have privacy from the government (from our society) until we all decide that priority is the most important and force our will on the government. That isn't going to happen for the masses until after they suffer through some totalitarianism in the 2017 - 2032 timeframe. Some of the masses are aware enough to perhaps not like NSA snooping (yet some support it as they support the military for their safety, nationalistic pride, and dominance of the USA as the reserve currency), but it isn't the most important priority that they are willing to fight for with all their effort and zeal. The Chinese (not all perhaps but enough do) actually support the single party Communist system, because afaik they think that people need to be disciplined and they think this provides a more harmonious society. tabnloz your bleeding heart is understandable and perhaps even admirable, until you understand scientifically that if we allowforce too much change too fast, we destroy resiliency and fitness. The action in Europe was not driven by a self-annealing free market, but rather by a conniving top-down powers-that-be. And they are leading the world into Dark Age. I am attacking this problem from the angle of social networks and crypto currency. |
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Thanks... it is hard to know what TPTB has been talking about since he just says "read my thread". You summed it up nicely... I've been wondering what he has been talking about and too lazy/busy to read his long threads.  I am sure governments and/or government contractors and/or corporations are probably scraping metadata from Bitcoin (and possibly other cryptocurrencies.) I haven't done a ton of research on the subject like you guys, but I tend to agree with you that if you wanted to be as private/anonymous as possible, you would still need to try and obscure your metadata even while using Zcash. If the view key is ever compromised then so is your privacy, and it would also be necessary if they do a reset. I don't think this will be a huge issue for corporations though, because really we are talking about IP (or possibly computer hardware/software (or OS) versions) leaks... which they wouldn't really be too worried about I don't think. They are more worried about financial privacy than anonymity, so that their competition is kept in the dark. If it is true that, with the Zcash view key, someone can see all transactions that ever occurred on that account, then I see this as a major blow to the functionality of Zcash. Perhaps there is still space for a technology like Monero with per-transaction view keys (and hopefully Monero will be combined with some type of CT implementation soon.) I can't imagine corporations wanting to open their books to anyone and everyone that they need to prove to that any certain transaction(s) occurred. I am still confused if the Zcash view key reveals all transactions for any certain account, or if can be done on a transaction-by-transaction basis. I don't intend this to be condescending, but you just can't formulate logic based on incorrect assumptions of the technology and also incorrect assessment of the realistically achievable goals. If you don't have the time for deep study (because you are a full-time university student), then it will be difficult for you write opinions that always make sense. Afaics, all the above doesn't make sense, because of several different facts that you haven't yet incorporated into your thought process. For one, afair there isn't any Zcash viewkey (at least not yet although I have asked them about this and how they can appease the government and have auditing capabilities without a viewkey). Also no anonymity technology can protect you from the government, because the governments can force you to provide the viewkey and/or censor your transaction by employing a 51% attack the coin (i.e. control over the longest chain) numerous ways (e.g. charge the cost to the electricity to the collective and/or regulate the mining farms). Even those in the past who rebutted me with, "but the miners can be in every country and the USA can't control every country", have had to eat their words now that we've shown that China has monopolized mining and is even lying about their justification for 51% attacking Bitcoin. I was warning about Tragedy of the Commons centralization of control in 2013 and everyone said I was loony[1] and now even Germany is instituting the BigT lie to implement capital controls[2] (why do you think Merkel and the Troika allowed 1.1 million muslims to invade Germany! it was to make the people feel unsafe!). We the masses will never be able to have privacy from the government (from our society) until we all decide that priority is the most important and force our will on the government. That isn't going to happen for the masses until after they suffer through some totalitarianism in the 2017 - 2032 timeframe. Some of the masses are aware enough to perhaps not like NSA snooping (yet some support it as they support the military for their safety, nationalistic pride, and dominance of the USA as the reserve currency), but it isn't the most important priority that they are willing to fight for with all their effort and zeal. The Chinese (not all perhaps but enough do) actually support the single party Communist system, because afaik they think that people need to be disciplined and they think this provides a more harmonious society. |
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TPTB's premise is that IP addresses and other metadata are being spied on. You can't transact in basecoins, even just to move from one mixer to another, without encountering that exposure.
My point is (especially for corporations) all their proprietary data privacy is done in zerocoins and then balances combined into basecoins to cash out of the mixer, which doesn't reveal anything but the agggregate value of the private data that is in the zerocoins. That is a distinct and epic advantage over Cryptonote/RingCT. Now you're on to this corporate blockchain thing which is probably okay if you are looking for a short term payoff (but you better hurry, as that iron is hot right now). However, it is largely irrelevant to the question of decentralized cryptocurrency and certainly to Zcash, the cryptocurrency that is being launched (though maybe not the company launching it, as they could potentially get some business building blockchain applications for businesses, as Blockstream an others seem to be doing). Yeah exactly what I am thinking. They should realize who will butter their bread and it won't be us unless they understand the speculator market which they seem to not understand based on the 11% "premine". Frankly, if they were very astute, they'd do both and move their investor's investment to the corporation and copy/partner with Blockstream, and then launch a fair mined or ICO Zcash to our speculator markets. As for longer-term user-level privacy markets (after the 2017 - 2032 totalitarianism that will fuck up everything first), that is much too far out for me to work on (I will be age ~70 by then). I've instead chosen to work in the area of combining crypto currency with social networking and go for large scale user adoption which my historic forte. I wouldn't be a good asset for Zcash, because although I could bring some more pragmatic marketing and business acumen to those math/hacker nerds, and I think I may have better block chain tech than Blockstream (at least for the moment afaik and in some facets), Blockstream has the inertia/reputation with the corporates. So Zcash should go that direction (and Maxwell, Poelstra, Shen-noether have been very condescending to me). Maybe one day in future I can afford to hire a cryptographer who understands zk-snarks fully. I am getting too old to go back to school to study more math courses (I was getting back into it in my mid-40s when my daughter started to show acumen for math, but then suddenly I got so ill and my ex yanked my kids from me any way). I have to make my major career move and try to make my big impact on society now with the skills I have. And my greatest forte is in combining programming, marketing, and user interface design. When you see the names and concepts I have and am implementing, I am confident there will be many here who realize they made an entirely inaccurate appraisal of my capabilities. As for you giving me career and financial advice, I'll not comment beyond this non-comment comment.
Apologies (for public statement) I just don't understand and thus it comes across to me as stubbornness or myopia. I guess you are doing it for the love of having your own project, not for any other rational reason. If you want to tell me in private, I can make a promise not to use it against you. If not, fine. I mean I know (according to you) your opportunity cost. Perhaps one of the differences is afaik you've worked in finance (presumably closed away from the end users) so this is breath of fresh air for you to work with a wider community. Whereas my entire career I was B2C focused and thus always got stroked by the end users. But you see I want 10 million end users, not just a 100 - 1000 speculators. And I want them to talk about the features they want and love, not about exchanges, shorting, etc.. Different interests perhaps... Anyway, if you[readers, not TPTB necessarily] want to build other applications based on the technology behind Zcash (the OP asked this), you can ignore Zcash (which is otherwise a rather uninteresting Bitcoin fork) and focus on libsnark.
Yep.  Edit: but there is no way your Aeon nor Monero can achieve the user adoption level I will achieve. Not even within orders-of-magnitude. So as for applying zk-snarks to the user markets, the one with more marketshare will be in the driver's seat. Open source is not typically a product. Those who market products (e.g. Android which is Linux) are in the driver's seat. Edit#2 (after some hours of sleep): one retort to my prior edit is that there will be products built on top of Monero/Aeon (and perhaps Cryptonote/RingCT coins in general including BBR) such as perhaps (if someone markets a end user product employing) the OpenBaazar fork which drive popular adoption. The fundamental chicken-and-the-egg dilemma of currency is that until the masses have the currency, they can't spend the currency. And if you just airdrop them currency, then they just dump it to speculators if there is no ecosystem that incentivizes them to use the currency as a recycling unit-of-exchange. This is one reason I encouraged the OpenBaazar fork to be currency agnostic even while adding XMR support. Because it is unpredictable which crypto currency will attain a widespread ecosystem. Even Bitcoin is not used by females and general demographics and is rather a young white male Libertarian technonerd demographic. To attain these economies-of-scale and ecosystem across all demographics requires an ecosystem that interests all those demographics. Given what I know about those who are creating altcoins, afaics none of them have the experience and focus to achieve a widespread demographics ecosystem. |
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TPTB's premise is that IP addresses and other metadata are being spied on. You can't transact in basecoins, even just to move from one mixer to another, without encountering that exposure.
My point is (especially for corporations) all their proprietary data privacy is done in zerocoins and then balances combined into basecoins to cash out of the mixer, which doesn't reveal anything but the agggregate value of the private data that is in the zerocoins. That is a distinct and epic advantage over Cryptonote/RingCT. smooth, I don't understand why you are being irrational and wasting your time down a dead-end. Surely there are more valuable and more productive things for you to work on than continue with what will eventually fail and have to be abandoned. It is very perplexing to me. You say you are hedged/diversified, so I don't understand the religious behavior. Sometimes we need to slay our malformed babies in order to give way for planting our seed again. I took the axe to the desks w.r.t. to my WordUp software when Atari's Tramiel decided to buy Federated Dept Stores and focus on making calculators instead of competing with Apple and Windows! That was a wise move as my LinkedIn career history shows. I don't agree with him that transacting in zerocash without worrying about your metadata exposure is of any real value, and neither does anyone else, but that's a different issue.
I think I already explained how the issue (especially for corporations) is much more compelling. So far, I have seen no rebuttal to the specifics I explained w.r.t. to corporate use. I am still awaiting Zcash's promised blog post comparing their technology to Cryptonote/RingCT. Appeal to authority is useless. Open source your reasons. Also, TPTB operates under the premise that miners will be centralized and engage in 51% policy attacks. If they do that they can refuse to allow you to move your basecoins to the new mixer unless you identify yourself.
What I believe about mining is irrelevant to this issue (although I do believe it is possible to decentralize PoW control while centralizing verification for scaling, thus to get best of both), because I am asserting the big market for privacy is not from hiding from the government (which I pointed out to you many times can charge the cost of 51% attack to society as China apparently has done to Bitcoin! and thus different game theory economics than a miner that needs to be profitable) and a viewkey should be provided to the government so they don't need to block your transactions (which applies to every anonymous coin). So the point is that Zcash will provide provable privacy against everyone except the government (whereas Monero/CN/RingCT/CoinJoin/CoinShuffle/Dash/ShadowCash will not). Note I have not forgotten my past point that the government can't necessarily keep secrets we are forced to give them, because they have employees which may not always be loyal, e.g. Edward Snowden. Thus again I see block chain privacy as more useful for corporations which can negotiate with the government to provide controlled access and not a viewkey to all transactions. We individuals can't negotiate with the totalitarianism that society will go through over the next decade or two. I agree with you that the possibility of moving to a reset coin has some potential value. It also has potential risks. The more times your have to perform the setup, the more opportunities there are for it to be compromised. Especially if it becomes routine and people get careless. Zcash has not said anything about planning to do these kinds of resets, as far as I've seen.
Again if the corporations who want to use it all participate in the multi-party setup, they would have to collude to cheat themselves, which doesn't make any sense. P.S. You might look into the timing side-channel attacks issue as a potential point of comparison to bring Zcash back down to similar level of anonymity reliability as RingCT (but I doubt it): https://github.com/Electric-Coin-Company/zcash/issues/5 |
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Guys when you get past your vested interests which clouds your vision, then you'll eventually realize as I had already explained in excruciating detail, that Zcash is the only technology that can realistically give us (and more importantly corporations) privacy on public block chains due to the insoluble meta-data and overlapping rings anonymity unmasking issue for Cryptonote/RingCT (and any other mixing solution for anonymity such as CoinJoin/Dash, CoinShuffle, etc.). The zerocoin mixer can be periodically reset, forcing all anonymous zerocoins to cash out periodically to basecoins which can be re-minted into the next instance of the zerocoin mixer. In this way, it can be proven that no zerocoins were created out-of-thin-air. All the anonymous mixing that occurs in the zerocoins can remain fully masked because the zerocoins balance can be merged before un-minting back to a basecoin. So the problem is easily resolved. And the anonymity is not compromised even if the master private key was. Corporations are going to generate their own masterkey in a consortium ceremony, so they will be in control of their destiny on this. Again I urge Zcash to focus on the corporate market. |
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armstrongeconomics.com is returning 503 error meaning server is down. Some predictions from MA: "Right now, we're probably going to see the bottom in deflation and a lot of commodities in 2016-the market will move back and forth-but the problem with China is that once you start trying to pretend that you can support the market, then you raise unrealistic levels of expectations that the iron fist is more powerful than Adam Smith's invisible hand and, I'm sorry, but Adam Smith always wins. So when people realize that China can't stop a decline, then it's going to go really down-that's the problem with China right now."
So the above is the prediction for the gold & commodities low this year and for China to crash hard to 2020. 3. What emerging issues or trends should traders prepare for in 2016?
The final decline in commodities and wild ride in the currency markets that will swing in both directions as we approach 2017 which will be political chaos globally from election in USA, France, Germany, to the EU vote of exiting the Euro and a likely uprising in Greece.
4. Which will be the best and worst performing currencies in 2016 and why?
We are likely to see the dollar still strengthen and the shocker could be the collapse of the British pound to eventually retest the par level of 1985.
5. Which under-the-radar currency pair do you expect to make a big move in 2016?
The potential for the biggest move will be the British pound if it closes below the 14050 level at the close of 2015. However, a closing even below 14615 will be a warning that there may be a serious crack on the horizon.
10. What are your New Year's resolutions?
Look for a reasonable place to live that is perhaps not in the direct path of the political chaos and economic insanity that lies ahead and seems to burst in the air starting in 2017.
It is quite obvious the 5 year downtrend has not been broken by the recent rise:   |
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I didn't forget sharding. I explained why it is nonsense. Why do fools always disrespect me ("PTSD"). |
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I refuse to repeat myself again.
Yet this phrase was repeated several times... Ok then, I refuse to refuse to refuse to repeat myself again.  (readers hacker humor I guess) Ok, I'll just leave this here for the interest of the reader
Thanks for attempting to make the readers misinformed. That will help prevent anyone from seriously implementing before I do. A future white paper can put this issue to rest. |
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Excellent and I like how he speaks very quickly so I don't get bored. The chart at 20:20 is amazing. The Middle East and Australia need to tumble economically. [...] |
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Excellent and I like how he speaks very quickly so I don't get bored. The chart at 20:20 is amazing. The Middle East and Australia need to tumble economically. However he says that information is order. Whereas, Shannon showed that the information content is the disorder or entropy. A highly ordered set of information has a very small vocabulary and/or a very non-uniform occurrence of terms, thus has low entropy and low information content. Therefor I think he missed some of the thrust of my prior post and the significance of the entropic force. High entropy is necessary to be more receptive to work and have less resistance to achieve fitness. Highly ordered systems are brittle, inflexible and highly resistant to application of energy to produce work. He claims that If you have entities that compute (lifeforms), a way to store Info as in solids or macromoleculles like DNA, and operate out of equilibrium ie in an energy potential that creates a flow you can grow information. and cheat the 2nd law
We are not cheating the 2nd law. Increasing information content is increasing entropy. The energy is being dissipated as work in the physical world. The information is always increasing. However he doesn't answer my inner question if this is emergent behaviour. I believe that if an energy flow exists, structures will emerge that will transform energy into information (low entropy)
Who said information == order == low entropy? That is incorrect. Energy transfer does not necessary reduce the entropy of a system if the work was applied external to the system where the information content is being measured. , that compete the natural dissipative processes that transform energy to incoherent information (high entropy),
Incoherent to whom? High entropy has more states and/or more uniform probability of states; thus has more information content. This may be random noise to an observer who does not possess knowledge of the vocabulary of that high entropy system, e.g. an encrypted datum is random except to the holder of the private key who can decrypt it. Of course TPTB will cut in here and say (and rightly up to a point), that Knowledge age will carve up the firms barriers into openly interconnected sub-networks networks no longer tied to a single Firm exposing thus their internals into Hand's domain again. I would welcome that situation as that would also mean that Firms will leave their Feudal age and be more Democratic.
However nature has not shown that it favours such a path. Nature seem to prefers monotonic appropriation of Hands Territory behind an ever expanding Coase barrier. Nature doesn't like market operations internally as their entropy production if accumulated is equivalent to death.
Coase's Theory of the Firm shows that lowering transactional cost of network links reduces the ability of the Firm as a monolithic structure to maintain a cost advantage. Nature is governed by the trend of entropy to maximum in the inviolable 2nd law of Thermo. Inertia carries nature to extremes, then the damn bursts and the Coasian barrier falls in a waterfall collapse. We will see from 2017 forward. This is often accompanied by technological innovation will reduces the transactional costs which were sustaining the Coasian barrier such as I hope the new software I am working on will be an example. he argues that much of the resource allocation is hidden behind the Coasian barrier, internally in the firms in a non market way (political), and only a portion that will get smaller and smaller as the Firms barriers expand is left to be handled by market dynamics.
This runs in parallel with before mentioned structures that metabolize energy into internal information production and own growth rather than allow entropic forces to play freely.
So computation and life and social organizations and the higher stratified computational networks as they expand move territory from the Domain of the Hand into the internal Domain of they Internal central planning.
Yes inertia plays a large role, but the 2nd law never loses and eventually these Coasian barrier collapse because they are uneconomic in the face of new technologies and popular emerging trends. |
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This requires unprofitable mining
No incentives = system will not work. I already justified the incentives upthread. I refuse to repeat myself again. |
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Since the topic of this thread was originally the name of the coin I was working on, I will toot my own horn one more time, because I am grinning from ear-to-ear about the new domain name I just registered.  It is just like when I purchased CoolPage.com for $500 in 2000, I knew it was perfect. Ditto the name I registered today. As well the coin's name was finalized months ago and was not any of the names mentioned in this thread. Umm, yes two names, one coin. You'll understand later. See ya forum. I'll be back... |
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anyways, when all said and done, i will never move from bitcoin to an altcoin i will keep majority at bitcoin forever...
I'll bet you will end up moving to an altcoin that is overwhelming more popularly used than Bitcoin. It is long odds though. |
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